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Overview of CILECCTA Event held on 21 Feb 2013 David Churcher - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Overview of CILECCTA Event held on 21 Feb 2013 David Churcher - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Energy & Sustainability Network 28 Feb 2013 Overview of CILECCTA Event held on 21 Feb 2013 David Churcher Sustainable Buildings Group BSRIA 1 Making buildings better With thanks to CILECCTA partners for some of their event slides 2
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Making buildings better
The essence of CILECCTA
- Combined analysis of economic impacts (LCC) and
environmental impacts (LCA) of projects
- More realistic analysis of project uncertainty
- Better support for better decision-making
- Beta version of new software
- 4-year research project, ending in August 2013
- 15 European partners (BSRIA and CAR from UK)
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Making buildings better
Economics – LCC
25 50 75 100 125 150 5 10 15 20 25 30 Year £k Boiler A Boiler B
5 10 15 20 25 30 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
End of year percentages Year
10-year Gilt rate AA 10-yr Corp bond rate Inflation rate (RPI)
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Making buildings better
Historic Cost Uncertainty
50.0 75.0 100.0 125.0 150.0 175.0 200.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Price index (real, 2005=100) Time Fuel price index numbers relative to the GDP deflator Coal and smokeless fuels Gas Electricity Heating oils
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Making buildings better
Environmental impact – LCA
Production of Intermediates Raw Material Extraction Production of Main Products Use Phase Recycling, Recovery, Disposal
Life Cycle Phases Impact Assessment Resource Consumption (Materials and Energy Carriers), Global Warming, Ozone Depletion, Summer Smog, Acidification, Eutrophication, Human-Toxicity, Eco-Toxicity, Land use ... Life Cycle Inventory Emissions Wastes Resources
Output Input Output Input Output Input Output Input Output Input
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Making buildings better
1700m2 Office Building
- 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% GWP [kg CO2-eq.] ODP [kg R11-eq.] POCP [kgC2H4-eq.] AP [kg SO2-eq] EP [kg phosphate-eq.] PE fos [MJ] PE tot [MJ]
Life Cycle Impacts (50 years)
Operation End of Life Maintenance Production 4,718,745 0,34 833 8410 828 68,112,014 77,901,372
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Making buildings better
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1 3 5 7 9 11 time period
Modelling Future Uncertainty
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Making buildings better
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Better information for decision-making
expected value 80% value
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Making buildings better
Under-insulated Efficient insulation
X OK
Efficient insulation Over-insulated
X OK
scenario outcome ALTERNATIVES A. Standard insulation
- B. Super insulation
FLEXIBLE ALTERNATIVE
- C. Build for current
standards, with the
- ption to upgrade
insulation if future price rise is steep
* exercise option to upgrade
Efficient insulation Efficient insulation OK
OK
trend price rise steep price rise trend price rise steep price rise trend price rise steep price rise*
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£ DCF KgCO2-eq A. Current level of insulation 17,070 161,772 B. Super level of insulation 17,230 106,210
- C. Flexible with upgrade option
16,300 137,167
expected values from 10,000 simulations over 40 year study period
LCC Cost (1000 £ DCF) LCA Environmental impact (1000 KgCO2-eq)
A B C
162 106 137 17 17.2 16.3
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Making buildings better
Beta CILECCTA Software
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Making buildings better
Other building services analyses
- Switching heating system based on energy price
- Upgrading building usage and systems based on
- ccupancy levels
- Modelling equipment replacement based on use
cases
- Selecting system designs or equipment based on
cost and environmental analysis
- Better matching of engineering recommendations to
the client’s values
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