Energy & Sustainability Network 28 Feb 2013 Overview of CILECCTA Event held on 21 Feb 2013 David Churcher Sustainable Buildings Group BSRIA 1 Making buildings better
With thanks to CILECCTA partners for some of their event slides 2 Making buildings better
The essence of CILECCTA • Combined analysis of economic impacts (LCC) and environmental impacts (LCA) of projects • More realistic analysis of project uncertainty • Better support for better decision-making • Beta version of new software • 4-year research project, ending in August 2013 • 15 European partners (BSRIA and CAR from UK) 3 Making buildings better
Economics – LCC 150 125 100 Boiler A £k 75 Boiler B 50 25 0 Year 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 End of year percentages 30 25 10-year Gilt 20 rate 15 AA 10-yr Corp bond rate 10 Inflation rate (RPI) 5 0 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Year 4 Making buildings better
Historic Cost Uncertainty Fuel price index numbers relative to the GDP deflator 200.0 175.0 Coal and Price index (real, 2005=100) smokeless fuels 150.0 Gas 125.0 Electricity 100.0 Heating oils 75.0 50.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Time 5 Making buildings better
Environmental impact – LCA Resource Consumption (Materials and Energy Carriers), Global Warming, Ozone Depletion, Summer Smog, Acidification, Eutrophication, Human-Toxicity, Eco-Toxicity, Land use ... Impact Assessment Emissions Wastes Life Cycle Output Output Output Output Output Input Inventory Input Input Input Input Resources Life Cycle Raw Material Production of Production of Use Phase Recycling, Phases Extraction Intermediates Main Products Recovery, Disposal 6 Making buildings better
1700m 2 Office Building Life Cycle Impacts (50 years) 4,718,745 0,34 833 8410 828 68,112,014 77,901,372 100% 80% Operation 60% End of Life Maintenance 40% Production 20% 0% GWP [kg CO2-eq.] ODP [kg R11-eq.] POCP [kgC2H4-eq.] AP [kg SO2-eq] EP [kg phosphate-eq.] PE fos [MJ] PE tot [MJ] -20% 7 Making buildings better
Modelling Future Uncertainty 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 time period 8 Making buildings better
9 Making buildings better
Better information for decision-making expected value 80% value 10 Making buildings better
ALTERNATIVES scenario outcome steep price rise Under-insulated X A. Standard insulation OK Efficient insulation trend price rise steep price rise Efficient insulation OK B. Super insulation X Over-insulated trend price rise FLEXIBLE ALTERNATIVE C. Build for current steep price rise* OK Efficient insulation standards, with the option to upgrade Efficient insulation OK trend price rise insulation if future price rise is steep * exercise option to upgrade 11 Making buildings better
£ DCF KgCO 2 -eq A. Current level of insulation 17,070 161,772 B. Super level of insulation 17,230 106,210 C. Flexible with upgrade option 16,300 137,167 expected values from 10,000 simulations over 40 year study period A 162 LCA Environmental impact (1000 KgCO 2 -eq) C 137 B 106 16.3 17 17.2 LCC Cost (1000 £ DCF) 12 Making buildings better
Beta CILECCTA Software 13 Making buildings better
Other building services analyses • Switching heating system based on energy price • Upgrading building usage and systems based on occupancy levels • Modelling equipment replacement based on use cases • Selecting system designs or equipment based on cost and environmental analysis • Better matching of engineering recommendations to the client’s values 14 Making buildings better
Thank you David Churcher david.churcher@bsria.co.uk 01344 465505 07818 044099 15 Making buildings better
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