UK Krystyna Dawson BSRIA June 2014 Policy long term impact on - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Heating trends by 2020 UK Krystyna Dawson BSRIA June 2014 Policy long term impact on dwellings Europe Reduction of CO2 emissions Reduction of energy consumption Efficiency of products & systems Integration of products
Krystyna Dawson
June 2014
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11/02/2010
Reduction of CO2 emissions Efficiency of products & systems Integration of products & systems
Reduction of energy consumption
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3 France Italy Spain Poland Germany UK Belgium Share of RES in electricity generation
2012:17% 2020: 27% 2012: 11% 2020: 38 % 2012: 11% 2020: 31% 2012: 20% 2020: 26% 2012: 27% 2020: 36% 2012:10% 2020: 19% 2012: 8% 2020: 21%
Substantial amounts available Permits issued Lots of uncertainty about environmental impact and economic viability Ambitious targets, High cost
Energy Efficiency, Management, Control,
at the top of the agenda.
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efficiency legislation
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2010 2012 2013 2014 2011 2015 2020 2018
Directive 2010//31/EU
National min. energy performance requirements Energy saving target applying to multi-dwelling All new public buildings must be nearly 0 energy All new buildings are nearly 0 energy
requirements set at system level
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systems
A +++ ≥150% A ++ ≥125% A + ≥98% A ≥90% B ≥82% C ≥75% D ≥36% E ≥34%
Cogeneration Gas HP Condensing boilers Non- condensing boilers Ground /Water to water HP Air to water HP
From 26/9/2015 products with Label D to G are no longer allowed to be sold
Fuel cell
Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015
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non-condensing boiler
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High efficiency gas boiler Solar thermal system (VT) Temperature controls System label example:
89% 6% 4%
+ +
System efficiency 99%
A + ≥98%
Separate labelling for Space Heating and SHW.
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Source: ZERO CARBON HUB
UK journey to zero carbon homes
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Financial incentives for products
introduced April 2014
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Drivers for existing buildings ?
Nearly two years later than planned
Replacement ratio: Predicted life for boilers
Drivers for new buildings
Legislation:
Energy prices New build level:
GDP growth 2.0% from 2014
?
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99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 95% 2% 3% 0% 0%
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Total: 1,482,500 units Total: 2,046,900 units Total: 110,000 units Total: 190,000 units
81% 10% 7% 0% 2% boilers heat pumps solar thermals micro chp & FC district heating
2010 2020
15% 51% 18% 1% 15%
2010 2020
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2010 (27.17 million dwellings) 2020 (28.45 million dwellings)
gas boilers 79.7%
boilers 5.6%
10.5% heat pumps 2.1% solar thermal 2.1% gas boilers 81.6%
5.9%
12% heat pumps 0.1% solar thermal 0.4%
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New residential family houses
ST CB CYL CYL HP HRV HRV CYL HP ST HRV
Gas cond. boiler + Solar thermal system + HRV Gas or electric HP + HRV Electric HP+ Solar thermal systems + HRV
Existing family houses
Gas cond. boiler+ Solar thermal system
ST CYL CB
(Hybrid heat pump)
CYL HP CB CB
Gas cond. boiler + quick recovery cylinder
CYL
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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f
RHI Spring 2013 RHI Spring 2014 Hybrid HP
100% growth towards 2011 52% growth towards 2011
Development of the UK Heat pump and Hybrid heat pump markets, 2005 - 2017
units
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0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Total ST collectors
‘000 m2
The market literally halved between 2011 and 2013
Development of the UK solar thermal market, 2005 - 2017
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New multi-dwellings
Communal boiler + CHP + Heat Interface Units District heating + Heat Interface Units CB + Electric HP / Solar thermal system
Existing multi-dwellings
Gas cond. boiler
CB B HIU CHP HP CYL
DH
HIU CB ST or
CB + Solar thermal system
CB ST
Communal boiler + CHP + Heat Interface Units
B HIU CHP
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0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Heat Interface Units (Flat Stations) DH connections
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‘000 units
86% growth
Development of the UK HIU market, 2012 - 2017
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71.6 87.6 87.1 86.2 90.9 98.4 100.0 102.0 57.7 47.4 47.4 39.8 37.1 39.6 41.0 42.0 50 100 150 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Housing completions in the UK, ‘000
1+2 family dwellings flats
risk of Legionella take space Low level of sizing and installation skills
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European sales of Fuel Cells under 10kWe
Source: BSRIA units
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PEM FC SO FC
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Market place will be gas dominated until 2020 Energy prices will go up Efficiency of systems & reduction
increasingly matter Help towards reducing initial investment cost for renewables will be crucial
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Krystyna Dawson
Senior Manager Traditional and Renewable Heating BSRIA WMI krystyna.dawson@bsria.co.uk