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BRIE F ING ON RISK- INF ORME D RE GUL AT ION Co mmissio n Me e ting Ma y 11, 2017 Ke y Me ssa g e s Ana lytic a l impro ve me nts suppo rt mo re a dva nc e d risk-info rme d initia tive s. Risk insig hts ha ve e nha nc e d

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SLIDE 1

BRIE F ING ON RISK- INF ORME D RE GUL AT ION

  • Co mmissio n Me e ting
  • Ma y 11, 2017
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SLIDE 2

Ke y Me ssa g e s

  • Ana lytic a l impro ve me nts suppo rt mo re

a dva nc e d risk-info rme d initia tive s.

  • Risk insig hts ha ve e nha nc e d re a c to r sa fe ty

a nd impro ve d de c isio n-ma king .

  • I

nve stme nts in infra struc ture , c a pa c ity, a nd me tho ds a re unde rwa y to a ddre ss te c hnic a l a nd c ultura l c ha lle ng e s.

2

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SLIDE 3

Ove rvie w

  • Our risk-info rme d jo urne y - Bill De an, NRR
  • I

mpro ving sa fe ty, info rme d b y risk insig hts

  • CJ F
  • ng , NRR
  • E

nsuring a ppro pria te o ve rsig ht o f ne w risk-info rme d initia tive s - Ale jandro Ale n, Re g io n 2

  • I

mpro ving inte g ra te d risk-info rme d de c isio nma king (RI DM) a nd pro b a b ilistic risk a sse ssme nt (PRA) re a lism

  • Ande rs Gilbe rtso n, RE

S

  • Cre a ting a c ulture o f risk-info rme d re g ula tio n
  • Jo e Giitte r, NRR

3

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SLIDE 4

Po st-F ukushima I mpro ve me nts (Mitig a tio n Stra te g ie s fo r E L AP) SBO Rule (1989) Ma inte na nc e Rule (1996) – SSC re lia b ility a nd a va ila bility Risk I nfo rme d L ic e nsing Ac tio ns (1990s - pre se nt) Po st-9/ 11 Re q uire me nts (B.5.b me a sure s - 2006) Pe rfo rmanc e -Base d, Risk-I nfo rme d Appro ac he s

SBO Risk

NF PA-805 F ire Pro te c tio n Sta nda rd (2012 - pre se nt)

Sta tion Bla c kout Risk Re duc e d for a Spe c trum of Ha za rds

4

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SLIDE 5

5

Risk- Informe d Applic a tions Ca n Afford Gre a te r Ope ra tiona l F le xibility a nd Improve d Sa fe ty

  • Risk-info rme d

lic e nsing is tre nding upwa rd.

  • F

L E X is b e ing inc o rpo ra te d into RI DM.

30 60 90 120 150 F Y14 F Y15 F Y16 F Y17 F Y18

Othe r T

  • rna do Missile

NF PA-805 50.69 S-PRA GSI

  • 191

T ST F

  • 425

T ST F

  • 505

I L RT

Sub mitta l Numb e r

Risk-I nfo rme d Sub mitta ls Unde r Re vie w

5 5

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SLIDE 6

6

Prog re ss in RIDM Continue s but Cha lle ng e s Re ma in

  • Ma jo r risk-info rme d lic e nsing re vie ws ha ve

pro ve d c ha lle ng ing

– Na tio na l F

ire Pro te c tio n Asso c ia tio n (NF PA) Sta nda rd 805

– Risk-I

nfo rme d T e c hnic a l Spe c ific a tio ns (RI T S) I nitia tive 4b

  • No t a ll sta ff ha ve e mb ra c e d RI

DM

  • I

nc o nsiste nt le ve ls o f PRA a c c e pta b ility

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SLIDE 7

Se ve ra l Ma jor Risk- Informe d Initia tive s Are unde r Re vie w

7

  • T

e c hnic a l Spe c ific a tio ns T a sk F

  • rc e (T

ST F ) 505: risk-info rme d c o mple tio n time s (“4b ”)

  • T

ST F

  • 425: risk-info rme d surve illa nc e

fre q ue nc ie s (“5b ”)

  • Risk-info rme d Ge ne ric Sa fe ty I

ssue (GSI )-191

  • 50.69: risk-info rme d struc ture , syste m, o r

c o mpo ne nt (SSC) c a te g o riza tio n

  • Se ismic PRA (NT

T F 2.1)

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SLIDE 8

8

Risk- Informe d Inse rvic e Inspe c tion 50.69 SSC Ca te g oriza tion 5b, Risk- Informe d Surve illa nc e F re que nc ie s NF PA- 805, Risk- Informe d F ire Prote c tion 4b, Risk- Informe d Comple tion T ime s

Re q uire d sc o pe , le ve l o f de ta il, te c hnic a l ro b ustne ss, a nd pla nt re pre se nta tio n

  • Gre a te r re lia nc e
  • n PRA
  • Mo re fle xib ility

fo r lic e nse e

  • Mo re c o mple x

sta ff re vie w

PRA Must Be Suita ble for the Applic a tion

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SLIDE 9

So urc e : 2013 le tte r fro m Nuc le a r E ne rg y I nstitute (NE I ) to NRC (ML 13354B997)

Industry PRA Mode ls Ha ve Improve d Gre a tly Ove r the L a st De c a de

I nte rna l E ve nts I nte rna l F lo o ding I nte rna l F ire

No 10% No 7% No 37% Ye s 90% Ye s 93% Ye s 63%

Se ismic , Hig h Winds, o r E xte rna l F lo o ding

Are mo de ls ac ro ss the fle e t pe e r-re vie we d?

Ye s 46% No 54%

9

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SLIDE 10

1

5 10 15 20 25 2005 2016 L e ve l 2 Ne w Re a c to r De sig ns E xte rna l E ve nts T ime Numb e r o f SPAR Mo de ls

NRC SPAR Mode ls Ha ve Improve d Gre a tly ove r the L a st De c a de

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SLIDE 11
  • Re a c to r Co o la nt

Pump (RCP) se a ls

  • Additio na l fe e d

wa te r pumps

  • Alte rna te RCP se a l

inje c tio n

  • Ne w die se l

g e ne ra to rs

1 1

Risk Insig hts Ga ine d from F ire PRA Are Driving Sa fe ty Improve me nts

  • I

mpro ve d b a tte rie s

  • T

ra ditio na l fire pro te c tio n e q uipme nt (shie lding , de te c tio n, e tc .)

E xample auxiliary fe e dwate r NF PA-805 mo dific atio n (Arkansas Nuc le ar One )

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SLIDE 12

1 2

S

  • urc e : S
  • uth T

e xas Pro je c t GS I

  • 191 lic e nse ame ndme nt

re que st (L AR)

Risk Insig hts Ha ve Re sulte d in GSI- 191 E nha nc e me nts

  • T

a rg e te d re mo va l o f pro b le ma tic insula tio n

  • Stra ine r mo dific a tio ns (no t

just size ) tha t fo c us o n risk- sig nific a nt sc e na rio s

  • I

mpro ve d pro c e dure s info rme d b y mo re re a listic a na lyse s

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SLIDE 13

1 3

NRC Is Upg ra ding the Infra struc ture Ne e de d to Support RIDM

  • F

a c ts a nd Ob se rva tio ns (F &O) inde pe nde nt a sse ssme nt pro c e ss

  • I

mpro ve d g uida nc e (e .g ., Re g ula to ry Guide (RG) 1.174 upda te )

  • I

nte ra c tio ns with industry to impro ve L AR c o nsiste nc y a nd q ua lity

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SLIDE 14

1 4

NRC Is Ove rse e ing Ne w Risk- Informe d Initia tive s

  • 10 CF

R 50.69 – c a te g o riza tio n a nd tre a tme nt

  • f SSCs
  • Risk-info rme d te c hnic a l spe c ific a tio n

initia tive s

– 4b: risk-info rme d c o mple tio n time s – 5b: re lo c a tio n o f surve illa nc e re q uire me nt

fre q ue nc ie s to lic e nse e -c o ntro lle d pro g ra m

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SLIDE 15
  • Adjust sc o pe o f SSCs sub je c t to “spe c ia l tre a tme nt”

c o ntro ls

  • Rule c o nsists o f thre e ma jo r e le me nts

1 5

1. Ca te g o riza tio n Pro c e ss 2. Alte rna te T re a tme nt 3. F e e db a c k a nd Pro c e ss Adjustme nts

50.69 Allows T re a tme nt of SSCs Ac c ording to Sa fe ty Sig nific a nc e

~ 75% ~ 25% ~ 1% ~ 99%

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SLIDE 16

1 6

  • Pilo t Pla nt: Vo g tle Units 1 a nd 2
  • 2012 – 2014: L

AR re vie w a nd a ppro va l

  • 2016: I

nspe c tio n pe r I nspe c tio n Pro c e dure (I P) 37060

  • Pro g ra m a nd imple me nta tio n

– 4 syste ms c a te g o rize d – 1 a lte rna te tre a tme nt (limite d)

  • Pro g ra m c o nsiste nt with sa fe ty e va lua tio n a nd 50.69

re q uire me nts

  • I

P 37060 suppo rts a dditio na l inspe c tio n

50.69 De monstra te d throug h Vog tle Pilot Applic a tion

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SLIDE 17

NRC Is Pre pa re d to Inspe c t Imple me nta tion of 4b

R - Risk I - I

nfo rme d

C - Co mple tio n T - T

ime s

1 7

E xisting T S Comple tion T ime “F rontstop” Risk- Informe d Comple tion T ime (RICT ) L imit “Ba c kstop” Compone nt Inope ra ble RICT L imit Risk Ma na g e me nt Ac tions

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SLIDE 18

1 8

  • 2012 – Vo g tle sub mitte d L

AR

– SE

R e xpe c te d la te r in 2017

  • I

P 71111.13, Ma inte na nc e Risk Asse ssme nt

  • Unde r re vie w to inc lude RI

CT inspe c tio n

  • 2007 – So uth T

e xa s Pro je c t first to a do pt

  • T

e mpo ra ry I nstruc tio n 2515/ 170

NRC Is Pre pa re d to Inspe c t Imple me nta tion of 4b

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SLIDE 19

1 9

24 Hrs 3 Days 7 Days 31 Days 92 Days 6 Months 18 Months

NRC Continue s to Re vie w Imple me nta tion of the Surve illa nc e F re que nc y Control Prog ra m 5b

  • T

ST F

  • 425 a nd NE

I

  • 04-10
  • Ado pte d b y ~ 75% o f industry (Vo g tle 2012)
  • I

P 71111.22, Surve illa nc e T e sting – Appe ndix A

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SLIDE 20
  • Guida nc e o n RI

DM

  • I

mpro ve d PRA re a lism

2

NRC Is Improving Inte g ra te d Risk- Informe d De c isionma king

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SLIDE 21

2 1

Princ iple 2 De fe nse - in- De pth Consiste nc y Princ iple 3 Ma inte na nc e of Sa fe ty Ma rg ins Princ iple 4 Risk Ana lysis Princ iple 5 Pe rforma nc e Monitoring Princ iple 1 Curre nt Re g ula tions Me t Inte g ra te d Risk- Informe d De c isionma king

Risk Ana lysis Is One Princ iple of the Inte g ra te d RIDM Proc e ss

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SLIDE 22
  • Dra ft Re visio n 3 o f RG 1.174 c o mple te d in

re spo nse to SRM o n SE CY-15-0168

  • E

nha nc e d g uida nc e o n the a g e nc y’ s inte rpre ta tio n a nd imple me nta tio n o f the DI D philo so phy

  • Ove rse e n b y the a g e nc y’ s Risk-I

nfo rme d Ste e ring Co mmitte e

2 2

Sta ff Re vise d De fe nse - in- De pth (DID) Guida nc e in RG 1.174 Ba se d

  • n Commission Dire c tion
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SLIDE 23
  • E

xpa nde d intro duc to ry a nd b a c kg ro und disc ussio ns o n the DI D philo so phy

  • De fine d e a c h DI

D e va lua tio n fa c to r

  • Pro vide d g uida nc e o n ho w to a ddre ss the

DI D e va lua tio n fa c to rs individua lly a nd in a n inte g ra te d fa shio n

2 3

Ke y E nha nc e me nts to DID Guida nc e in RG 1.174 Re vision 3

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SLIDE 24
  • Disc ussio n o n a g g re g a tio n o f risk
  • Ac c e pta nc e g uide line tra nsitio ns
  • Pro vide s stro ng e r c o nne c tio n to g uida nc e o n

tre a tme nt o f unc e rta inty (NURE G-1855)

  • T

ra nsitio ning fro m la rg e re le a se fre q ue nc y (L RF ) a nd c o nditio na l c o nta inme nt fa ilure pro b a b ility (CCF P) to la rg e e a rly re le a se fre q ue nc y (L E RF ) a nd c o nta inme nt pe rfo rma nc e e xpe c ta tio ns fo r ne w re a c to rs

2 4

Additiona l E nha nc e me nts to RG 1.174 Re vision 3

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SLIDE 25

Sta ff Continue s to Work with Sta ke holde rs to Improve PRA Re a lism

  • I

mpro ving fire PRA me tho ds

  • Se e king sta ke ho lde r input o n huma n e rro r

pro b a b ility e stima te s a nd c o mmo n-c a use fa ilure mo de ling

  • Po te ntia l me tho ds fo r mo de ling c re dit o f

F L E X e q uipme nt a nd RCP se a ls

  • E

nha nc ing pro b a b ilistic flo o ding ha za rd a na lyse s

2 5

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SLIDE 26

2 6

5 10 15 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 T

  • ta l GYO Pa rtic ipa nts

Annua l GYO Pro g ra m Pa rtic ipa tio n

Pro g ra m Co mple te d I n Pro g re ss

T he NRC Grow Your Own (GYO) Prog ra m Ha s Cre a te d a n E ffe c tive Pipe line for PRA E xpe rtise

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SLIDE 27

27

Risk- Informe d T hinking Workshops Provide Sta ff Ha nds- on E xpe rie nc e with RIDM

2 7

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SLIDE 28

Ce rtific a te Prog ra ms Promote Risk- Informe d T hinking Be yond PRA Org a niza tions

2 8

3-Mo nth PRA Ro ta tio n PRA Ce rtific a te Risk I nfo rme d T hinking Ce rtific a te Ba sic PRA Co mpe te nc y I ntro duc to ry PRA Cla ss I nde pe nde nt Study Ac tivity Risk-I nfo rme d T hinking Wo rksho p

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SLIDE 29

Proc e ss Upda te s Will Support Risk- Informe d Culture

  • E

nha nc e d re vie w g uida nc e a nd o ffic e pro c e dure s pla c e g re a te r e mpha sis o n using risk insig hts

  • Gre a te r c o lla b o ra tio n b e twe e n PRA

spe c ia lists a nd tra ditio na l re vie we rs

  • F
  • c using o n risk sig nific a nc e c a n re sult in

mo re stre a mline d a nd e ffic ie nt lic e nsing re vie ws

2 9

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SLIDE 30

Ke y Me ssa g e s

  • Ana lytic a l impro ve me nts suppo rt mo re

a dva nc e d risk-info rme d initia tive s.

  • Risk insig hts ha ve e nha nc e d re a c to r sa fe ty

a nd impro ve d de c isio n-ma king .

  • I

nve stme nts in infra struc ture , c a pa c ity, a nd me tho ds a re unde rwa y to a ddre ss te c hnic a l a nd c ultura l c ha lle ng e s.

3

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SLIDE 31

Ac ronyms (A- N)

  • CCF

P: Co nditio na l Co nta inme nt F a ilure Pro b a b ility

  • CDF

: Co re Da ma g e F re q ue nc y

  • CF

R: Co de o f F e de ra l Re g ula tio ns

  • DI

D: De fe nse -I n-De pth

  • E

L AP: E xte nde d L

  • ss o f AC Po we r
  • F

&O: F a c t/ F inding a nd Ob se rva tio n

  • GSI

: Ge ne ric Sa fe ty I ssue

  • GYO: Gro w Yo ur Own
  • I

P: I nspe c tio n Pro c e dure

  • L

AR: L ic e nse Ame ndme nt Re q ue st

  • L

E RF : L a rg e E a rly Re le a se F re q ue nc y

  • L

RF : L a rg e Re le a se F re q ue nc y

  • L

OCA: L

  • ss-o f-Co o la nt-Ac c ide nt
  • NE

I : Nuc le a r E ne rg y I nstitute

  • NF

PA: Na tio na l F ire Pro te c tio n Asso c ia tio n

  • NT

T F : Ne a r T e rm T a sk F

  • rc e

3 1

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SLIDE 32

Ac ronyms (O- Z)

  • PRA: Pro b a b ilistic Risk Asse ssme nt
  • RCP: Re a c to r Co o la nt Pump
  • RG: Re g ula to ry Guide
  • RI

CT : Risk-I nfo rme d Co mple tio n T ime

  • RI

SC : Risk-I nfo rme d Ste e ring Co mmitte e Risk-I nfo rme d Sa fe ty Cla ss

  • RI

T S: Risk-I nfo rme d T e c hnic a l Spe c ific a tio ns

  • RG: Re g ula to ry Guide
  • SF

CP: Surve illa nc e F re q ue nc y Co ntro l Pro g ra m

  • SSC: Struc ture , Syste m, o r Co mpo ne nt
  • SR: Surve illa nc e Re q uire me nt
  • SRM: Sta ff Re q uire me nts Me mo ra ndum
  • T

S: T e c hnic a l Spe c ific a tio n

  • T

ST F : T e c hnic a l Spe c ific a tio n T a sk F

  • rc e

3 2