BMO Timber & Wood Products Summit
May 14, 2015
BMO Timber & Wood Products Summit May 14, 2015 Notices - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
BMO Timber & Wood Products Summit May 14, 2015 Notices Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted. This presentation contains forward-looking
May 14, 2015
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Notices
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Company Overview
– Ainsworth shareholders received 0.1321 of a Norbord share for each Ainsworth share – Ainsworth shares delisted from TSX on April 2, 2015
– Installed OSB capacity of 8.0 Bsf-3/8” (1) (2) – Installed panel capacity (including particleboard & MDF) of 8.9 Bsf-3/8” (1) (2) – Approximately 2,600 employees at 17 plants across the US, Canada and Europe
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Company Overview
North America Europe
Oriented Strand Board (OSB) Particleboard Medium Density Fibreboard (MDF) Furniture
Europe 20% Canada 37% US 43%
8.9 Bsf-3/8” (1)(2)
Panel Capacity by Region
(1) Does not include the 600 MMsf-3/8” Grande Prairie, Alberta Line 2 (“GP2”) expansion project (2) Pro Forma the Ainsworth merger
$- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000
West Fraser Canfor Corp. Louisiana-Pacific Norbord Interfor Western Forest Products Conifex
Enterprise Value ($USmm)
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Company Overview
Top 10 Global OSB Producers Pro Forma Enterprise Value
Source: Bloomberg and company filings. Enterprise values as at May 12, 2015
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Norbord Louisiana-Pacific Georgia-Pacific Weyerhaeuser Kronospan Huber Tolko KronoSwiss Egger
OSB Capacity (Bsf-3/8")
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Company Overview
OSB – 90% of Capacity
MDF and related value-added products
Particleboard – 6% of Capacity
MDF – 4% of Capacity
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Industry Overview
Wall Sheathing Webstock Flooring Rimboard Door Header Roof Window Header Garage Door Header
– Serves many of the same uses as plywood, but produced at a lower cost
– Currently, OSB represents 64% of total North American structural panels consumption
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Industry Overview
10 20 30 North America Europe South America Asia Norbord operates in the two significant global OSB producing regions
Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings
Kronospan 39% KronoSwiss 20% Egger 12% Sonae 7% Smartply 5% Kalavela 4% Others 2%
Industry Capacity 8 Bsf-3/8”
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Industry Overview
Louisiana-Pacific 22% Georgia-Pacific 19% Weyer- haeuser 11% Huber 8% Tolko 8% Other 7%
Industry Capacity 28 Bsf-3/8”
North American OSB Industry
25%
Source: Company documents and other public filings – installed industry capacity
European OSB Industry
11%
Norbord is a significant player in both key markets
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Industry Overview
OSB Share of Structural Panels
Source: FEA and Norbord Estimates
0% 25% 50% 75% 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
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Industry Overview
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015F US Housing Starts (mm) US Housing Starts Underlying Demand
Favourable long-term OSB industry fundamentals
US Housing Starts and Underlying Demand
1.5 mm Over-Built
21.4 22.8 24.0 24.8 25.9 26.9 28.0 28.6 29.2 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.9 27.1 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% – 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Effective Demand / Capacity Capacity (Bsf-3/8") Effective Capacity Mothballed Capacity Effective Demand / Capacity
North American OSB Demand and Capacity
3.7 mm Under-Built
Source: US Census Bureau and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); As of April 2015
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Industry Overview
38 Mills in Operation 8 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed North American OSB Installed Capacity: Norbord Mill 6 Mills (Re)started in 2013
Source: Company documents and other public filings
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Industry Overview
North Central Benchmark OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); As of April 2015
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Annual Average NC Price US$ per Msf 7/16" Historical Price Forecasted Price
15-year average: $229
demographics and the need for housing
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Industry Overview
50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Housing Starts (000’s) UK +18% in 2014 Germany +5% in 2014
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
European OSB Share of Structural Panels
Source: National House Builder Confederation (NHBC), Construction Products Association (CPA) & Bundesbank
compared to >60% in North America
543 556 505 517 430 460 465 487 550 489 693 729 556 577 358 353 369 396 430 403 1,236 1,285 1,061 1,093 788 813 834 883 980 892 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Wooden All Other
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Industry Overview
Japanese Housing Starts (000’s)
Source: Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
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Business Strategy
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Business Strategy
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 PF
Norbord OSB Capacity (Bsf-3/8”)
(1)
(1) Pro Forma for the Ainsworth Merger
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Business Strategy
37 28 56 9 14 29 16 25 23 24
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(1) The benefits of improved productivity and a richer value-added product mix were offset by higher maintenance spending in 2013
(1)
Margin Improvement Program Gains ($ in millions) “In Control of Our Controllables”
– Increased productivity – Reduced overhead costs – Reduced raw material usage – Improved product mix
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Business Strategy
Purchasing Savings Product Specialization Single Public Company
$45 Million in Annual Merger Synergies (1) Achievable over 18-24 months
Ainsworth’s Forming Technology Operational Standardization Continuous Press Experience Order File Optimization
(1) Costs to achieve ~50%
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Business Strategy
64% 32% 4% 2014 Sales by Geography (1)
(1) Pro forma the Ainsworth merger - Ainsworth sales converted to US$ at an average exchange rate of C$1.1046 / US$
– Europe – Asia-focused exports
North American-based competitors
cycles Europe North America Asia
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Business Strategy
(1) Pro Forma the Ainsworth merger
New Home Construction (Pro-Dealers) 50% Repair & Remodel (Big Box) 25% Industrial 20% Export 5% 5.3 Bsf-3/8” (1)
2014 North American Shipments (1)
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Business Strategy
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015PF
Capex Greenfield Expansion
Capex Investment (US$ millions)
(1) 2015 target is pro forma for the Ainsworth merger
(1)
$73 $21 $45
$631 $495 $247 $42
$0 $107 $45 $188 $287 $90 $139 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM Q1- 2015 Synergies Ainsworth Adjusted EBITDA Norbord Adjusted EBITDA
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Financial Overview
North Central Benchmark OSB Price $369 $320 $217 $161 $172 $163 $219 $186 $271 $315 $218 $211 US Housing Starts (000s) 1,956 2,068 1,801 1,355 906 554 587 609 781 925 1,003 1,011
Total Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions) 11-year average: $188 million
(2) (3)
(1) Pro forma for the Ainsworth merger (2) Includes approximately $45 million of identified annual synergies, achievable over 18 – 24 months (3) Ainsworth EBITDA converted at a period average exchange rate of C$1.13917 / US$
Norbord Sensitivity to North American OSB Price Changes: +$10/Msf 7/16” = +$58 million(1) Adjusted EBITDA (at full capacity)
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Financial Overview
European Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)
58 32 35 81 4 17 37 44 39 46 47 41 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTM Q1- 2015
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Financial Overview
PF Q1 2015 (1) (3) Cash $50 Bank Lines (2) 239 A/R Securitization(3) 80 Liquidity $369 Manageable Debt Maturities (US$ millions) Strong Liquidity Profile (US$ millions) Moody’s Ba2 (Stable) S&P BB- (Stable) DBRS BB (Negative) Stable Issuer Credit Ratings
$200 $240 $315
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
7.70% 5.375% 6.25%
(1) Pro forma for the Ainsworth merger and to reflect an increase in the A/R securitization program commitment from $100 million to $125 million subsequent to quarter-end (2) Undrawn bank lines less outstanding letters of credit (3) Pro forma program commitment limit (see note (1) above) less $45 million drawn at quarter-end
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Summary
Every +$10 in NA OSB price = +$58 million in Adjusted EBITDA at full capacity
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Appendices
(as at May 12, 2015)
(declared May 1, 2015, to be paid on June 21, 2015 to shareholders of record
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Appendices
Historical North Central Benchmark OSB Price
Source: Random Lengths
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Average NC Price US$ per Msf 7/16"
15-year average
Q1 261 132 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 Q2 240 190 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 Q3 171 180 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 Q4 155 140 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 Average 207 160 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218
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Appendices (1) Pro forma for the Ainsworth merger Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges Norbord standalone tax operating loss carry-forwards (gross) as at Dec. 31, 2014 – US $133 million, Canada C$108 million, Belgium €34 million Ainsworth standalone tax operating loss carry-forwards (gross) benefitted for financial statement purposes as at Dec. 31, 2014 – Canada C$192 million (2) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares)
(US$ millions)
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Appendices
Analyst Analyst Name Contact CIBC World Markets Mark Kennedy (403) 221-4133 mark.kennedy@cibc.ca Credit Suisse Andrew Kuske (416) 352-4561 andrew.kuske@credit-suisse.com Dundee Capital Markets Stephen Atkinson (514) 396-0321 satkinson@dundeecapitalmarkets.com ERA Forest Products Research Claire Huxtable (604) 886-5741 chuxtable@ERA-research.com John Tumazos Very Independent Research John Tumazos (732) 444-1083 john@veryindependentresearch.com Raymond James Daryl Swetlishoff (604) 659-8246 daryl.swetlishoff@raymondjames.ca RBC Capital Markets Paul Quinn (604) 257-7048 paul.c.quinn@rbccm.com Scotia Capital Benoit Laprade (514) 287-3627 benoit.laprade@scotiabank.com TD Securities Sean Steuart (416) 308-3399 sean.steuart@tdsecurities.com Vertical Research Partners James Armstrong (212) 256-6157 ja@verticalresearchpartners.com
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Appendices
Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at May 12, 2015. It is not exhaustive. Annual Average North Central Benchmark OSB Price
US$ per Msf 7/16”
Analyst 2015F 2016F CIBC World Markets 228 280 Dundee Capital Markets 195 205 Raymond James 225 260 RBC Capital Markets 215 250 Scotia Capital 215 256 TD Securities 202 250 Vertical Research Partners 205 280 Average $212 $254
Norbord Inc. Suite 600 One Toronto Street Toronto, Ontario, M5C 2W4 Canada Tel: 416-365-0705 Fax: 416-365-3292 www.norbord.com