Big Data & Analytics: A. Vaccani&Partner AG Bid Confusion, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Big Data & Analytics: A. Vaccani&Partner AG Bid Confusion, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Big Data & Analytics: A. Vaccani&Partner AG Bid Confusion, Big Threat or Big Opportunity? Zollikerstrassse 141 P.O. Box 1682 CH-8032 Zurich Switzerland T +41 44 392 99 00 info@avp-group.net Presented by Scott Affelt


slide-1
SLIDE 1
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 1
  • A. Vaccani&Partner AG

Zollikerstrassse 141 P.O. Box 1682 CH-8032 Zurich Switzerland T +41 44 392 99 00 info@avp-group.net www.avp-group.net

Big Data & Analytics: Bid Confusion, Big Threat or Big Opportunity?

Presented by Scott Affelt January 2017

slide-2
SLIDE 2
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 2

What is Big Data, Analytics and the Internet of Things?

Source: Dataconomy

slide-3
SLIDE 3
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 3

What is it?

Big Data is high-volume, high-variety and high-velocity data that needs Analytical tools to reveal trends, patterns and correlations that can create actionable insights into decision-making. Internet of Things (IoT) is the inter-networking of physical devices, embedded with electronics, software, sensors, actuators, and network connectivity that enable these objects to collect and exchange data.

slide-4
SLIDE 4
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 4

An Explosion of Interconnected Devices

slide-5
SLIDE 5
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 5

Why Now?

45% Cost of Sensors Cost of Bandwidth Cost of RAM/Storage 60X 40X 20X

Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research. Changes over last 10 years.

Connectivity Sensors Computing Analytics

It’s All Coming Together!

Enablers Solutions that were provided to $500M assets …. … can now be applied to $1M assets.

Cost of Computing

slide-6
SLIDE 6
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 6

I’M NOT GOOGLE. WHY DO I CARE ABOUT BIG DATA?

slide-7
SLIDE 7
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 7

Challenging Industrial Markets

Capital Spending Competition Profit Margins NA Growth Europe Growth Asia Growth

Want to Grow Your Business? Status Quo Will Not Work! Safe is Risky!

slide-8
SLIDE 8
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 8

If you don’t figure it out. Someone else will!

Old Model New Model Sears, Macy’s Amazon Yellow Taxi Uber, Lyft Kodak/Motorola Digital Cameras, iPhone Boiler OEM ?????? Don’t Let This Be You!

slide-9
SLIDE 9
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 9

Where does Big Data, Analytics and Internet of Things Fit in the Power/Energy Industry?

slide-10
SLIDE 10
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 10

Asset Performance Management

Predictive Preventive Reactive Optimization Advanced Control Control

Value Created

Asset Management Operations Management

Assets

Maintenance Production

slide-11
SLIDE 11
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 11

Asset Performance Management

Predictive Preventive Reactive Optimization Advanced Control Control

Value Created

Asset Management Operations Management

Assets

Maintenance Production

Current Industry Practices

(limited by technology & cost)

slide-12
SLIDE 12
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 12

Asset Performance Management

Predictive Preventive Reactive Optimization Advanced Control Control

Value Created

Asset Management Operations Management

Assets

Maintenance Production

Potential Future Applications

(enabled by technology & cost)

slide-13
SLIDE 13
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 13

How Data Analytics Adds Value

Difficulty Value

Descriptive Analytics

What

happened?

Diagnostic Analytics

Why

did it happen?

Predictive Analytics

When

will it happen?

Prescriptive Analytics

What

should I do about it?

Source: Gartner

Past State Current/Future State of Analytics

slide-14
SLIDE 14
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 14

Key Areas of Value Creation

Sources: DOE Study on Predictive Maintenance. NETL & EPA studies on Efficiency Improvements.

Benefits Value Created Predictive Maintenance

Advanced Pattern Recognition + Diagnostics + Prognostics

  • Early detection of failures
  • Improved maintenance planning

Remaining useful life predictions.

  • Reduced capital spending
  • Lengthen maintenance intervals
  • Reduce downtime by 35%
  • Reduce unplanned outages by 70%
  • Reduce maintenance costs by 25%.
  • Increase availability

Performance Monitoring

Real-time process monitoring + Diagnostics

  • Real-time performance data

Identify specific components contributing to inefficiency

  • Improved thermal efficiency
  • Improve efficiency by 2-8%
  • Maintain optimum capacity

Advanced Controls

Adaptive, Predictive Controls

  • Optimized process control
  • “Best” operator 24/7
  • Optimize over transients
  • Improve operational flexibility
  • Improve efficiency by 2-8%
  • Maintain process quality
  • Maintain process stability
slide-15
SLIDE 15
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 15

Predictive Maintenance Benefits

Direct Value Created

– Avoided Cost of Unplanned Outages – Lower Maintenance Costs – Higher efficiency

Indirect Value Created

– Better Risk Management – Real-time Decision Support – Strategic Capital Investment Decisions – Increased workforce effectiveness – Improved safety

  • <1 year Return on Investment

Accenture Study 10GW Fleet Duke Energy $31.5M Cost Avoidance

slide-16
SLIDE 16
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 16

Predictive Maintenance Solutions

  • SmartSignal/Predix (acquired by GE)
  • PRiSM (acquired by Schneider Electric)
  • Mtell (acquired by AspenTech)
  • EtaPro APR (General Physics)
  • FAMOS (Curtiss-Wright)
  • SureSense by Expert Microsystems
slide-17
SLIDE 17
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 17

Domain Expertise Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the OEM fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Controls

DATA ANALYTICS

slide-18
SLIDE 18
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 18

Domain Expertise Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the OEM fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Controls

DATA ANALYTICS

slide-19
SLIDE 19
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 19

Domain Expertise

Process/Reliability

Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the OEM fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Controls

DATA ANALYTICS OEM Domain Knowledge is KEY to Maximize Value Extracted from Data Analytics

slide-20
SLIDE 20
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 20

New Business Models Can Capture Value

slide-21
SLIDE 21
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 21

New Business Models

Product Driven Model

  • Run-to-failure
  • Warranty response
  • Spares
  • Field Service
  • Retrofits/upgrades

Internet of Things Model

  • Remote Monitoring
  • Predictive Maintenance
  • Operating Performance
  • Design Optimization

Products Services Products Services

slide-22
SLIDE 22
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 22

Evolution of GE Business Model

Customer Value High Low 1980 2017

  • Share risk
  • Reduce Total Cost of Ownership
  • Long-Term Service Agreement
  • Preventive Maintenance
  • Data analytics provides decision support
  • Predictive Maintenance
  • Extended intervals in LTSA
  • Sell Parts/Spares
  • Reactive Maintenance

Transactional

Break/fix

Contractual

LTSA

Customer Outcomes

Optimized Assets & Production

slide-23
SLIDE 23
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 23

Value Created & Value Captured

Product-Based Mindset Internet of Things-Based Mindset

Value Created for Customer

Customer Needs Reactively solve existing needs Proactively address real-time and emergent needs Offering Stand-alone product that become

  • bsolete over time

Continual update of product, features & value created Role of Data Monitoring, Control and Safety Optimization, Improvement, Autonomy

Source: SmartDesign

Value Captured by Supplier

Path to Profit Sell the next product Enable recurring revenue streams Customer Control Points Technology know-how, IP and brand Synergies between products & services Customer reliance of Value Created Capability Development Maximize use of core competencies & existing resources Focus is on Product Leverage use of core competencies & existing resources Create new network/system value Focus is on the System

slide-24
SLIDE 24
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 24

Concepts of New Solution Offerings and Business Models

slide-25
SLIDE 25
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 25

Predictive Maintenance Solution

Key Components of Offering

  • On-site software monitors & detects equipment anomalies before component failure
  • Integrates physics-based (OEM) knowledge with data-driven models
  • Diagnostics capability determines likely cause of failure
  • Prognostic capability to predict remaining useful life (RUL) of component

Key Enablers

  • Physics-based performance, reliability and lifecycle models based on OEM

designs/knowledge

  • Diagnostic “rules” for common faults
  • Robust advanced pattern recognition analytics with diagnostic and prognostic capability
  • Embedded or network edge analytic solutions
  • Price allows access to smaller assets

Value Created for Customer

  • Early detection of potential failures and cost avoidance of unplanned outages
  • Guidance for users to make repairs based on the diagnostics
  • Better planning for repair/manage risk of failure using RUL

Value Captured for Supplier

  • On-line diagnostics can better prepare for on-site work/repair
  • Early failure detection can facilitate spares/inventory
  • SaaS – Recurring revenue stream
slide-26
SLIDE 26
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 26

Performance Monitoring Solution

Key Components of Offering

  • On-site software monitors & detects performance degradation against design

specifications

  • Quantifies impact of degradation
  • Utilizes OEM process knowledge/models
  • Diagnostics capability determines likely cause of performance shortfall

Key Enablers

  • Price point of solution to customer
  • May be integrated in other advanced pattern recognition solution (i.e. Predictive

Maintenance)

Value Created for Customer

  • Improved thermal efficiency, reliability and availability
  • Identifies and quantifies specific areas for potential upgrade/repair projects

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Identifies and quantifies specific areas for potential upgrade/repair projects
  • SaaS – Recurring revenue stream
slide-27
SLIDE 27
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 27

Remote Monitoring Service

Key Components of Offering

  • Remote, real-time service monitors & detects equipment and/or performance anomalies
  • Integrates physics-based and process (OEM) knowledge with data-driven models
  • Diagnostics capability determines likely cause of failure or degradation
  • Prognostic capability to predict remaining useful life (RUL) of component

Key Enablers

  • Data connectivity
  • Same as Predictive Maintenance & Performance Monitoring Solutions
  • Subject matter experts and remote monitoring resources

Value Created for Customer

  • Same as Predictive Maintenance & Performance Monitoring Services
  • Less in-house SME requirements
  • Less resources required to monitor assets
  • Less investment in APR/IT/Resources

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Same as Predictive Maintenance & Performance Monitoring Services
  • SaaS – Recurring revenue stream
  • Data used to: identify common faults across installed base; improve hardware designs
  • Triggers action for sales team for repairs, upgrades or asset replacement
  • Leverage SME and knowledge base
slide-28
SLIDE 28
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 28

Advanced Controls Solutions

Key Components of Offering

  • Predictive, adaptive process control optimizes process (safely)
  • Goes beyond standard P&ID control systems
  • Can be used in supervisory or closed-loop mode
  • Real-time quantification of potential value of control changes

Key Enablers

  • In depth knowledge of process, control and automation
  • Advanced control technology (either build, buy or license)
  • Price point allows access to smaller assets

Value Created for Customer

  • Optimized process control simulates the “Best” operator 24/7
  • Optimize process over transient conditions (various loads, fuels)
  • Improve operational flexibility
  • Improve efficiency
  • Reduce emissions

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Expand automation/controls solutions to offer higher value
  • Leverage process knowledge
  • SaaS or shared savings – Recurring revenue stream
slide-29
SLIDE 29
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 29

Equipment as a Service (EaaS)

Key Components of Offering

  • Sell hardware as a service or outcome (i.e. $X/Y lb/hr steam, power by the hour)
  • Aligns customer and supplier risk and rewards

Key Enablers

  • Connectivity to data
  • Same as Remote Monitoring Service
  • Access to capital to fund initial outlay

Value Created for Customer

  • Lower capital outlay for equipment
  • Transfer risks to those best suited to manage it
  • Allows focus on core business

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Creates long term and aligned relationship with customer
  • Creates steady recurring revenue stream
  • Feeds aftermarket business
  • Leverages Predictive Maintenance, Performance Monitoring and Remote M&D

platforms

slide-30
SLIDE 30
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 30

How will the IoT Opportunity Evolve?

We are Moving to Here NOW.

slide-31
SLIDE 31
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 31

Areas to Compete in Big Data

  • Distinctive Technology

– Analytical tools – Connectivity – Data storage, management

  • Distinctive Data/Knowledge

– Unique process knowledge/algorithms – Physics-based life assessments

  • Platform Providers

– GE Predix, Siemens – MicroSoft, IBM

  • End-to-end Solution Providers

– Asset Performance Management Suites – Enterprise Asset Management Suites

Domain Knowledge Unique to OEM

slide-32
SLIDE 32
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 32

If not you, who?

Traditional

  • GE
  • Siemens
  • Schneider
  • Emerson
  • ABB
  • Honeywell
  • AspenTech
  • Yokogowa
  • Rockwell

Non-Traditional

  • IBM
  • Google
  • Oracle
  • Microsoft
  • SAP
slide-33
SLIDE 33
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 33

Domain Expertise Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the AVP Group fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Software

DATA ANALYTICS

AVP Group

Knowledge of: Domain, Analytics, Market, Value Proposition, Players/partners

slide-34
SLIDE 34
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 34

Digital Strategy Development - Functional Process Elements

Initialization Digital Strategy Implementation Phase 1 Digital Business Analysis

External Internal

Phase 2 Strategy Formation Phase 3 Preparation of Implementation

slide-35
SLIDE 35
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 35

Project Phases Details

  • Goals, deliverables,

key issues

  • Finalizing project
  • rganization, kick-off

teams

  • Define needs for

internal and external analysis

  • Deep understanding of:

 Current strategic vision  What data and value of data in the business model  Digital SWOT  Customer expectations  Competitive landscape  Mapping of key players

  • Capability assessment
  • Digital Vision and roadmap
  • Digital strategy including

 Target focus areas to provide customer vale  Digital Value Chain and gaps  Monetizing strategy  Make or buy  Partnering strategy and interfaces

  • Final alignment of the digital

strategy with top management

  • Organizational

requirements

  • Development budget
  • Roadmap and Millstones for

implementation Implementation Strategy Development Digital Business Analysis Project Initiation

Activity postponed into Phase 2

slide-36
SLIDE 36
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 36

Mistakes to Avoid

  • Believing this Big Data movement will pass
  • Adding functionality customers don’t want
  • Underestimating data security risks
  • Failing to anticipate new competitive threats
  • Waiting too long to get started
  • Overestimating internal capabilities
slide-37
SLIDE 37
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 37

Conclusions

“The future is already here – it’s just not very equally distributed” – William Gibson “The only strategy that is guaranteed to fail, is not taking any risks and not changing anything – because the world is moving too fast” – Mark Zuckerberg

slide-38
SLIDE 38
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 38

Thank You.

AVP Group S.Affelt@AVP-Group.com +1 303-883-0399

slide-39
SLIDE 39
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 2

What is Big Data, Analytics and the Internet of Things?

Source: Dataconomy

slide-40
SLIDE 40
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 3

What is it?

Big Data is high-volume, high-variety and high-velocity data that needs Analytical tools to reveal trends, patterns and correlations that can create actionable insights into decision-making. Internet of Things (IoT) is the inter-networking of physical devices, embedded with electronics, software, sensors, actuators, and network connectivity that enable these objects to collect and exchange data.

slide-41
SLIDE 41
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 4

An Explosion of Interconnected Devices

slide-42
SLIDE 42
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 5

Why Now?

45% Cost of Sensors Cost of Bandwidth Cost of RAM/Storage 60X 40X 20X

Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research. Changes over last 10 years.

Connectivity Sensors Computing Analytics

It’s All Coming Together!

Enablers Solutions that were provided to $500M assets …. … can now be applied to $1M assets.

Cost of Computing

slide-43
SLIDE 43
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 6

I’M NOT GOOGLE. WHY DO I CARE ABOUT BIG DATA?

slide-44
SLIDE 44
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 7

Challenging Industrial Markets

Capital Spending Competition Profit Margins NA Growth Europe Growth Asia Growth

Want to Grow Your Business? Status Quo Will Not Work! Safe is Risky!

slide-45
SLIDE 45
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 8

If you don’t figure it out. Someone else will!

Old Model New Model Sears, Macy’s Amazon Yellow Taxi Uber, Lyft Kodak/Motorola Digital Cameras, iPhone Boiler OEM ?????? Don’t Let This Be You!

slide-46
SLIDE 46
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 9

Where does Big Data, Analytics and Internet of Things Fit in the Power/Energy Industry?

slide-47
SLIDE 47
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 10

Asset Performance Management

Predictive Preventive Reactive Optimization Advanced Control Control

Value Created

Asset Management Operations Management

Assets

Maintenance Production

slide-48
SLIDE 48
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 11

Asset Performance Management

Predictive Preventive Reactive Optimization Advanced Control Control

Value Created

Asset Management Operations Management

Assets

Maintenance Production

Current Industry Practices

(limited by technology & cost)

slide-49
SLIDE 49
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 12

Asset Performance Management

Predictive Preventive Reactive Optimization Advanced Control Control

Value Created

Asset Management Operations Management

Assets

Maintenance Production

Potential Future Applications

(enabled by technology & cost)

slide-50
SLIDE 50
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 13

How Data Analytics Adds Value

Difficulty Value

Descriptive Analytics

What

happened?

Diagnostic Analytics

Why

did it happen?

Predictive Analytics

When

will it happen?

Prescriptive Analytics

What

should I do about it?

Source: Gartner

Past State Current/Future State of Analytics

slide-51
SLIDE 51
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 14

Key Areas of Value Creation

Sources: DOE Study on Predictive Maintenance. NETL & EPA studies on Efficiency Improvements.

Benefits Value Created Predictive Maintenance

Advanced Pattern Recognition + Diagnostics + Prognostics

  • Early detection of failures
  • Improved maintenance planning

Remaining useful life predictions.

  • Reduced capital spending
  • Lengthen maintenance intervals
  • Reduce downtime by 35%
  • Reduce unplanned outages by 70%
  • Reduce maintenance costs by 25%.
  • Increase availability

Performance Monitoring

Real-time process monitoring + Diagnostics

  • Real-time performance data

Identify specific components contributing to inefficiency

  • Improved thermal efficiency
  • Improve efficiency by 2-8%
  • Maintain optimum capacity

Advanced Controls

Adaptive, Predictive Controls

  • Optimized process control
  • “Best” operator 24/7
  • Optimize over transients
  • Improve operational flexibility
  • Improve efficiency by 2-8%
  • Maintain process quality
  • Maintain process stability
slide-52
SLIDE 52
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 15

Predictive Maintenance Benefits

Direct Value Created

– Avoided Cost of Unplanned Outages – Lower Maintenance Costs – Higher efficiency

Indirect Value Created

– Better Risk Management – Real-time Decision Support – Strategic Capital Investment Decisions – Increased workforce effectiveness – Improved safety

  • <1 year Return on Investment

Accenture Study 10GW Fleet Duke Energy $31.5M Cost Avoidance

slide-53
SLIDE 53
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 16

Predictive Maintenance Solutions

  • SmartSignal/Predix (acquired by GE)
  • PRiSM (acquired by Schneider Electric)
  • Mtell (acquired by AspenTech)
  • EtaPro APR (General Physics)
  • FAMOS (Curtiss-Wright)
  • SureSense by Expert Microsystems
slide-54
SLIDE 54
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 17

Domain Expertise Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the OEM fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Controls

DATA ANALYTICS

slide-55
SLIDE 55
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 18

Domain Expertise Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the OEM fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Controls

DATA ANALYTICS

slide-56
SLIDE 56
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 19

Domain Expertise

Process/Reliability

Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the OEM fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Controls

DATA ANALYTICS OEM Domain Knowledge is KEY to Maximize Value Extracted from Data Analytics

slide-57
SLIDE 57
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 20

New Business Models Can Capture Value

slide-58
SLIDE 58
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 21

New Business Models

Product Driven Model

  • Run-to-failure
  • Warranty response
  • Spares
  • Field Service
  • Retrofits/upgrades

Internet of Things Model

  • Remote Monitoring
  • Predictive Maintenance
  • Operating Performance
  • Design Optimization

Products Services Products Services

slide-59
SLIDE 59
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 22

Evolution of GE Business Model

Customer Value High Low 1980 2017

  • Share risk
  • Reduce Total Cost of Ownership
  • Long-Term Service Agreement
  • Preventive Maintenance
  • Data analytics provides decision support
  • Predictive Maintenance
  • Extended intervals in LTSA
  • Sell Parts/Spares
  • Reactive Maintenance

Transactional

Break/fix

Contractual

LTSA

Customer Outcomes

Optimized Assets & Production

slide-60
SLIDE 60
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 23

Value Created & Value Captured

Product-Based Mindset Internet of Things-Based Mindset

Value Created for Customer

Customer Needs Reactively solve existing needs Proactively address real-time and emergent needs Offering Stand-alone product that become

  • bsolete over time

Continual update of product, features & value created Role of Data Monitoring, Control and Safety Optimization, Improvement, Autonomy

Source: SmartDesign

Value Captured by Supplier

Path to Profit Sell the next product Enable recurring revenue streams Customer Control Points Technology know-how, IP and brand Synergies between products & services Customer reliance of Value Created Capability Development Maximize use of core competencies & existing resources Focus is on Product Leverage use of core competencies & existing resources Create new network/system value Focus is on the System

slide-61
SLIDE 61
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 24

Concepts of New Solution Offerings and Business Models

slide-62
SLIDE 62
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 25

Predictive Maintenance Solution

Key Components of Offering

  • On-site software monitors & detects equipment anomalies before component failure
  • Integrates physics-based (OEM) knowledge with data-driven models
  • Diagnostics capability determines likely cause of failure
  • Prognostic capability to predict remaining useful life (RUL) of component

Key Enablers

  • Physics-based performance, reliability and lifecycle models based on OEM

designs/knowledge

  • Diagnostic “rules” for common faults
  • Robust advanced pattern recognition analytics with diagnostic and prognostic capability
  • Embedded or network edge analytic solutions
  • Price allows access to smaller assets

Value Created for Customer

  • Early detection of potential failures and cost avoidance of unplanned outages
  • Guidance for users to make repairs based on the diagnostics
  • Better planning for repair/manage risk of failure using RUL

Value Captured for Supplier

  • On-line diagnostics can better prepare for on-site work/repair
  • Early failure detection can facilitate spares/inventory
  • SaaS – Recurring revenue stream
slide-63
SLIDE 63
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 26

Performance Monitoring Solution

Key Components of Offering

  • On-site software monitors & detects performance degradation against design

specifications

  • Quantifies impact of degradation
  • Utilizes OEM process knowledge/models
  • Diagnostics capability determines likely cause of performance shortfall

Key Enablers

  • Price point of solution to customer
  • May be integrated in other advanced pattern recognition solution (i.e. Predictive

Maintenance)

Value Created for Customer

  • Improved thermal efficiency, reliability and availability
  • Identifies and quantifies specific areas for potential upgrade/repair projects

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Identifies and quantifies specific areas for potential upgrade/repair projects
  • SaaS – Recurring revenue stream
slide-64
SLIDE 64
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 27

Remote Monitoring Service

Key Components of Offering

  • Remote, real-time service monitors & detects equipment and/or performance anomalies
  • Integrates physics-based and process (OEM) knowledge with data-driven models
  • Diagnostics capability determines likely cause of failure or degradation
  • Prognostic capability to predict remaining useful life (RUL) of component

Key Enablers

  • Data connectivity
  • Same as Predictive Maintenance & Performance Monitoring Solutions
  • Subject matter experts and remote monitoring resources

Value Created for Customer

  • Same as Predictive Maintenance & Performance Monitoring Services
  • Less in-house SME requirements
  • Less resources required to monitor assets
  • Less investment in APR/IT/Resources

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Same as Predictive Maintenance & Performance Monitoring Services
  • SaaS – Recurring revenue stream
  • Data used to: identify common faults across installed base; improve hardware designs
  • Triggers action for sales team for repairs, upgrades or asset replacement
  • Leverage SME and knowledge base
slide-65
SLIDE 65
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 28

Advanced Controls Solutions

Key Components of Offering

  • Predictive, adaptive process control optimizes process (safely)
  • Goes beyond standard P&ID control systems
  • Can be used in supervisory or closed-loop mode
  • Real-time quantification of potential value of control changes

Key Enablers

  • In depth knowledge of process, control and automation
  • Advanced control technology (either build, buy or license)
  • Price point allows access to smaller assets

Value Created for Customer

  • Optimized process control simulates the “Best” operator 24/7
  • Optimize process over transient conditions (various loads, fuels)
  • Improve operational flexibility
  • Improve efficiency
  • Reduce emissions

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Expand automation/controls solutions to offer higher value
  • Leverage process knowledge
  • SaaS or shared savings – Recurring revenue stream
slide-66
SLIDE 66
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 29

Equipment as a Service (EaaS)

Key Components of Offering

  • Sell hardware as a service or outcome (i.e. $X/Y lb/hr steam, power by the hour)
  • Aligns customer and supplier risk and rewards

Key Enablers

  • Connectivity to data
  • Same as Remote Monitoring Service
  • Access to capital to fund initial outlay

Value Created for Customer

  • Lower capital outlay for equipment
  • Transfer risks to those best suited to manage it
  • Allows focus on core business

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Creates long term and aligned relationship with customer
  • Creates steady recurring revenue stream
  • Feeds aftermarket business
  • Leverages Predictive Maintenance, Performance Monitoring and Remote M&D

platforms

slide-67
SLIDE 67
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 30

How will the IoT Opportunity Evolve?

We are Moving to Here NOW.

slide-68
SLIDE 68
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 31

Areas to Compete in Big Data

  • Distinctive Technology

– Analytical tools – Connectivity – Data storage, management

  • Distinctive Data/Knowledge

– Unique process knowledge/algorithms – Physics-based life assessments

  • Platform Providers

– GE Predix, Siemens – MicroSoft, IBM

  • End-to-end Solution Providers

– Asset Performance Management Suites – Enterprise Asset Management Suites

Domain Knowledge Unique to OEM

slide-69
SLIDE 69
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 32

If not you, who?

Traditional

  • GE
  • Siemens
  • Schneider
  • Emerson
  • ABB
  • Honeywell
  • AspenTech
  • Yokogowa
  • Rockwell

Non-Traditional

  • IBM
  • Google
  • Oracle
  • Microsoft
  • SAP
slide-70
SLIDE 70
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 33

Domain Expertise Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the AVP Group fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Software

DATA ANALYTICS

AVP Group

Knowledge of: Domain, Analytics, Market, Value Proposition, Players/partners

slide-71
SLIDE 71
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 34

Digital Strategy Development - Functional Process Elements

Initialization Digital Strategy Implementation Phase 1 Digital Business Analysis

External Internal

Phase 2 Strategy Formation Phase 3 Preparation of Implementation

slide-72
SLIDE 72
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 35

Project Phases Details

  • Goals, deliverables,

key issues

  • Finalizing project
  • rganization, kick-off

teams

  • Define needs for

internal and external analysis

  • Deep understanding of:

 Current strategic vision  What data and value of data in the business model  Digital SWOT  Customer expectations  Competitive landscape  Mapping of key players

  • Capability assessment
  • Digital Vision and roadmap
  • Digital strategy including

 Target focus areas to provide customer vale  Digital Value Chain and gaps  Monetizing strategy  Make or buy  Partnering strategy and interfaces

  • Final alignment of the digital

strategy with top management

  • Organizational

requirements

  • Development budget
  • Roadmap and Millstones for

implementation Implementation Strategy Development Digital Business Analysis Project Initiation

Activity postponed into Phase 2

slide-73
SLIDE 73
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 36

Mistakes to Avoid

  • Believing this Big Data movement will pass
  • Adding functionality customers don’t want
  • Underestimating data security risks
  • Failing to anticipate new competitive threats
  • Waiting too long to get started
  • Overestimating internal capabilities
slide-74
SLIDE 74
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 37

Conclusions

“The future is already here – it’s just not very equally distributed” – William Gibson “The only strategy that is guaranteed to fail, is not taking any risks and not changing anything – because the world is moving too fast” – Mark Zuckerberg

slide-75
SLIDE 75
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 38

Thank You.

AVP Group S.Affelt@AVP-Group.com +1 303-883-0399

slide-76
SLIDE 76
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 2

What is Big Data, Analytics and the Internet of Things?

Source: Dataconomy

slide-77
SLIDE 77
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 3

What is it?

Big Data is high-volume, high-variety and high-velocity data that needs Analytical tools to reveal trends, patterns and correlations that can create actionable insights into decision-making. Internet of Things (IoT) is the inter-networking of physical devices, embedded with electronics, software, sensors, actuators, and network connectivity that enable these objects to collect and exchange data.

slide-78
SLIDE 78
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 4

An Explosion of Interconnected Devices

slide-79
SLIDE 79
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 5

Why Now?

45% Cost of Sensors Cost of Bandwidth Cost of RAM/Storage 60X 40X 20X

Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research. Changes over last 10 years.

Connectivity Sensors Computing Analytics

It’s All Coming Together!

Enablers Solutions that were provided to $500M assets …. … can now be applied to $1M assets.

Cost of Computing

slide-80
SLIDE 80
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 6

I’M NOT GOOGLE. WHY DO I CARE ABOUT BIG DATA?

slide-81
SLIDE 81
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 7

Challenging Industrial Markets

Capital Spending Competition Profit Margins NA Growth Europe Growth Asia Growth

Want to Grow Your Business? Status Quo Will Not Work! Safe is Risky!

slide-82
SLIDE 82
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 8

If you don’t figure it out. Someone else will!

Old Model New Model Sears, Macy’s Amazon Yellow Taxi Uber, Lyft Kodak/Motorola Digital Cameras, iPhone Boiler OEM ?????? Don’t Let This Be You!

slide-83
SLIDE 83
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 9

Where does Big Data, Analytics and Internet of Things Fit in the Power/Energy Industry?

slide-84
SLIDE 84
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 10

Asset Performance Management

Predictive Preventive Reactive Optimization Advanced Control Control

Value Created

Asset Management Operations Management

Assets

Maintenance Production

slide-85
SLIDE 85
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 11

Asset Performance Management

Predictive Preventive Reactive Optimization Advanced Control Control

Value Created

Asset Management Operations Management

Assets

Maintenance Production

Current Industry Practices

(limited by technology & cost)

slide-86
SLIDE 86
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 12

Asset Performance Management

Predictive Preventive Reactive Optimization Advanced Control Control

Value Created

Asset Management Operations Management

Assets

Maintenance Production

Potential Future Applications

(enabled by technology & cost)

slide-87
SLIDE 87
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 13

How Data Analytics Adds Value

Difficulty Value

Descriptive Analytics

What

happened?

Diagnostic Analytics

Why

did it happen?

Predictive Analytics

When

will it happen?

Prescriptive Analytics

What

should I do about it?

Source: Gartner

Past State Current/Future State of Analytics

slide-88
SLIDE 88
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 14

Key Areas of Value Creation

Sources: DOE Study on Predictive Maintenance. NETL & EPA studies on Efficiency Improvements.

Benefits Value Created Predictive Maintenance

Advanced Pattern Recognition + Diagnostics + Prognostics

  • Early detection of failures
  • Improved maintenance planning

Remaining useful life predictions.

  • Reduced capital spending
  • Lengthen maintenance intervals
  • Reduce downtime by 35%
  • Reduce unplanned outages by 70%
  • Reduce maintenance costs by 25%.
  • Increase availability

Performance Monitoring

Real-time process monitoring + Diagnostics

  • Real-time performance data

Identify specific components contributing to inefficiency

  • Improved thermal efficiency
  • Improve efficiency by 2-8%
  • Maintain optimum capacity

Advanced Controls

Adaptive, Predictive Controls

  • Optimized process control
  • “Best” operator 24/7
  • Optimize over transients
  • Improve operational flexibility
  • Improve efficiency by 2-8%
  • Maintain process quality
  • Maintain process stability
slide-89
SLIDE 89
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 15

Predictive Maintenance Benefits

Direct Value Created

– Avoided Cost of Unplanned Outages – Lower Maintenance Costs – Higher efficiency

Indirect Value Created

– Better Risk Management – Real-time Decision Support – Strategic Capital Investment Decisions – Increased workforce effectiveness – Improved safety

  • <1 year Return on Investment

Accenture Study 10GW Fleet Duke Energy $31.5M Cost Avoidance

slide-90
SLIDE 90
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 16

Predictive Maintenance Solutions

  • SmartSignal/Predix (acquired by GE)
  • PRiSM (acquired by Schneider Electric)
  • Mtell (acquired by AspenTech)
  • EtaPro APR (General Physics)
  • FAMOS (Curtiss-Wright)
  • SureSense by Expert Microsystems
slide-91
SLIDE 91
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 17

Domain Expertise Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the OEM fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Controls

DATA ANALYTICS

slide-92
SLIDE 92
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 18

Domain Expertise Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the OEM fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Controls

DATA ANALYTICS

slide-93
SLIDE 93
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 19

Domain Expertise

Process/Reliability

Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the OEM fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Controls

DATA ANALYTICS OEM Domain Knowledge is KEY to Maximize Value Extracted from Data Analytics

slide-94
SLIDE 94
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 20

New Business Models Can Capture Value

slide-95
SLIDE 95
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 21

New Business Models

Product Driven Model

  • Run-to-failure
  • Warranty response
  • Spares
  • Field Service
  • Retrofits/upgrades

Internet of Things Model

  • Remote Monitoring
  • Predictive Maintenance
  • Operating Performance
  • Design Optimization

Products Services Products Services

slide-96
SLIDE 96
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 22

Evolution of GE Business Model

Customer Value High Low 1980 2017

  • Share risk
  • Reduce Total Cost of Ownership
  • Long-Term Service Agreement
  • Preventive Maintenance
  • Data analytics provides decision support
  • Predictive Maintenance
  • Extended intervals in LTSA
  • Sell Parts/Spares
  • Reactive Maintenance

Transactional

Break/fix

Contractual

LTSA

Customer Outcomes

Optimized Assets & Production

slide-97
SLIDE 97
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 23

Value Created & Value Captured

Product-Based Mindset Internet of Things-Based Mindset

Value Created for Customer

Customer Needs Reactively solve existing needs Proactively address real-time and emergent needs Offering Stand-alone product that become

  • bsolete over time

Continual update of product, features & value created Role of Data Monitoring, Control and Safety Optimization, Improvement, Autonomy

Source: SmartDesign

Value Captured by Supplier

Path to Profit Sell the next product Enable recurring revenue streams Customer Control Points Technology know-how, IP and brand Synergies between products & services Customer reliance of Value Created Capability Development Maximize use of core competencies & existing resources Focus is on Product Leverage use of core competencies & existing resources Create new network/system value Focus is on the System

slide-98
SLIDE 98
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 24

Concepts of New Solution Offerings and Business Models

slide-99
SLIDE 99
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 25

Predictive Maintenance Solution

Key Components of Offering

  • On-site software monitors & detects equipment anomalies before component failure
  • Integrates physics-based (OEM) knowledge with data-driven models
  • Diagnostics capability determines likely cause of failure
  • Prognostic capability to predict remaining useful life (RUL) of component

Key Enablers

  • Physics-based performance, reliability and lifecycle models based on OEM

designs/knowledge

  • Diagnostic “rules” for common faults
  • Robust advanced pattern recognition analytics with diagnostic and prognostic capability
  • Embedded or network edge analytic solutions
  • Price allows access to smaller assets

Value Created for Customer

  • Early detection of potential failures and cost avoidance of unplanned outages
  • Guidance for users to make repairs based on the diagnostics
  • Better planning for repair/manage risk of failure using RUL

Value Captured for Supplier

  • On-line diagnostics can better prepare for on-site work/repair
  • Early failure detection can facilitate spares/inventory
  • SaaS – Recurring revenue stream
slide-100
SLIDE 100
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 26

Performance Monitoring Solution

Key Components of Offering

  • On-site software monitors & detects performance degradation against design

specifications

  • Quantifies impact of degradation
  • Utilizes OEM process knowledge/models
  • Diagnostics capability determines likely cause of performance shortfall

Key Enablers

  • Price point of solution to customer
  • May be integrated in other advanced pattern recognition solution (i.e. Predictive

Maintenance)

Value Created for Customer

  • Improved thermal efficiency, reliability and availability
  • Identifies and quantifies specific areas for potential upgrade/repair projects

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Identifies and quantifies specific areas for potential upgrade/repair projects
  • SaaS – Recurring revenue stream
slide-101
SLIDE 101
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 27

Remote Monitoring Service

Key Components of Offering

  • Remote, real-time service monitors & detects equipment and/or performance anomalies
  • Integrates physics-based and process (OEM) knowledge with data-driven models
  • Diagnostics capability determines likely cause of failure or degradation
  • Prognostic capability to predict remaining useful life (RUL) of component

Key Enablers

  • Data connectivity
  • Same as Predictive Maintenance & Performance Monitoring Solutions
  • Subject matter experts and remote monitoring resources

Value Created for Customer

  • Same as Predictive Maintenance & Performance Monitoring Services
  • Less in-house SME requirements
  • Less resources required to monitor assets
  • Less investment in APR/IT/Resources

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Same as Predictive Maintenance & Performance Monitoring Services
  • SaaS – Recurring revenue stream
  • Data used to: identify common faults across installed base; improve hardware designs
  • Triggers action for sales team for repairs, upgrades or asset replacement
  • Leverage SME and knowledge base
slide-102
SLIDE 102
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 28

Advanced Controls Solutions

Key Components of Offering

  • Predictive, adaptive process control optimizes process (safely)
  • Goes beyond standard P&ID control systems
  • Can be used in supervisory or closed-loop mode
  • Real-time quantification of potential value of control changes

Key Enablers

  • In depth knowledge of process, control and automation
  • Advanced control technology (either build, buy or license)
  • Price point allows access to smaller assets

Value Created for Customer

  • Optimized process control simulates the “Best” operator 24/7
  • Optimize process over transient conditions (various loads, fuels)
  • Improve operational flexibility
  • Improve efficiency
  • Reduce emissions

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Expand automation/controls solutions to offer higher value
  • Leverage process knowledge
  • SaaS or shared savings – Recurring revenue stream
slide-103
SLIDE 103
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 29

Equipment as a Service (EaaS)

Key Components of Offering

  • Sell hardware as a service or outcome (i.e. $X/Y lb/hr steam, power by the hour)
  • Aligns customer and supplier risk and rewards

Key Enablers

  • Connectivity to data
  • Same as Remote Monitoring Service
  • Access to capital to fund initial outlay

Value Created for Customer

  • Lower capital outlay for equipment
  • Transfer risks to those best suited to manage it
  • Allows focus on core business

Value Captured for Supplier

  • Creates long term and aligned relationship with customer
  • Creates steady recurring revenue stream
  • Feeds aftermarket business
  • Leverages Predictive Maintenance, Performance Monitoring and Remote M&D

platforms

slide-104
SLIDE 104
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 30

How will the IoT Opportunity Evolve?

We are Moving to Here NOW.

slide-105
SLIDE 105
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 31

Areas to Compete in Big Data

  • Distinctive Technology

– Analytical tools – Connectivity – Data storage, management

  • Distinctive Data/Knowledge

– Unique process knowledge/algorithms – Physics-based life assessments

  • Platform Providers

– GE Predix, Siemens – MicroSoft, IBM

  • End-to-end Solution Providers

– Asset Performance Management Suites – Enterprise Asset Management Suites

Domain Knowledge Unique to OEM

slide-106
SLIDE 106
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 32

If not you, who?

Traditional

  • GE
  • Siemens
  • Schneider
  • Emerson
  • ABB
  • Honeywell
  • AspenTech
  • Yokogowa
  • Rockwell

Non-Traditional

  • IBM
  • Google
  • Oracle
  • Microsoft
  • SAP
slide-107
SLIDE 107
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 33

Domain Expertise Computer Science Math & Statistics

Where does the AVP Group fit?

Machine Learning Data Processing Traditional Software

DATA ANALYTICS

AVP Group

Knowledge of: Domain, Analytics, Market, Value Proposition, Players/partners

slide-108
SLIDE 108
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 34

Digital Strategy Development - Functional Process Elements

Initialization Digital Strategy Implementation Phase 1 Digital Business Analysis

External Internal

Phase 2 Strategy Formation Phase 3 Preparation of Implementation

slide-109
SLIDE 109
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 35

Project Phases Details

  • Goals, deliverables,

key issues

  • Finalizing project
  • rganization, kick-off

teams

  • Define needs for

internal and external analysis

  • Deep understanding of:

 Current strategic vision  What data and value of data in the business model  Digital SWOT  Customer expectations  Competitive landscape  Mapping of key players

  • Capability assessment
  • Digital Vision and roadmap
  • Digital strategy including

 Target focus areas to provide customer vale  Digital Value Chain and gaps  Monetizing strategy  Make or buy  Partnering strategy and interfaces

  • Final alignment of the digital

strategy with top management

  • Organizational

requirements

  • Development budget
  • Roadmap and Millstones for

implementation Implementation Strategy Development Digital Business Analysis Project Initiation

Activity postponed into Phase 2

slide-110
SLIDE 110
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 36

Mistakes to Avoid

  • Believing this Big Data movement will pass
  • Adding functionality customers don’t want
  • Underestimating data security risks
  • Failing to anticipate new competitive threats
  • Waiting too long to get started
  • Overestimating internal capabilities
slide-111
SLIDE 111
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 37

Conclusions

“The future is already here – it’s just not very equally distributed” – William Gibson “The only strategy that is guaranteed to fail, is not taking any risks and not changing anything – because the world is moving too fast” – Mark Zuckerberg

slide-112
SLIDE 112
  • A. Vaccani & Partner AG | 2017 | Page 38

Thank You.

AVP Group S.Affelt@AVP-Group.com +1 303-883-0399