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Bargaining Failure: Aggression by Rogue States Class 7 What is a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Bargaining Failure: Aggression by Rogue States Class 7 What is a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Bargaining Failure: Aggression by Rogue States Class 7 What is a rogue state? What is a rogue state? State behaving contrary to conventional norms of international community. Typically, small, insulated and not very influential,
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What is a rogue state?
- State behaving contrary to conventional
norms of international community.
- Typically, small, insulated and not very
influential, especially after 1945.
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What is a rogue state?
- State behaving contrary to conventional
norms of international community.
- Typically, small, insulated and not very
influential, especially after 1945.
- Engage in conflicts that they are unlikely to
win, but face few consequences (short of regime change) from losing.
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Can powerful states be rogue states?
Vs.
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Examples of rogue state aggression
- Libya invades Chad
- Iraq invades Iran and Kuwait
- North Korea nuclear program
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Libya invades Chad
- Gaddafi had pan-Arab
ambitions after gaining power.
- Invaded northern Chad
to support Arab rebels in 1978.
- Eventually defeated in
- 1987. Army loses 10% of
troops.
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Iraq under Saddam Hussein
- Saddam gains
power in 1979.
- Iraq invades Iran in
1980.
○ 8-year stalemate.
- Iraq invades Kuwait
in 1990
○ Removed by US and coalition in 1991.
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North Korea and nuclear weapons
- Fall of USSR drastically
reduces aid.
- North Korea starts nuclear
program in 1994.
- US threatens airstrikes, NK
retaliation against the South.
- Deal made for aid to NK.
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What do Libya, Iraq and North Korea have in common?
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Regime Type and Aggression
- Why do democracies tend to win the wars
they fight?
- Why are some autocracies more likely to be
aggressive than others?
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Democracy and Conflict Initiation
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Democracy and Conflict Initiation
Democracies are more likely to win wars because they are more selective in the wars the fight, because:
- Threat of leader removal due to loss is
greater.
- More effective ways of assessing
- pponent's’ strength.
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Accountability
- Competitive elections
hold leaders accountable for losing conflicts.
- Backing down in a
standoff or losing a war make leaders unpopular.
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Free Press and Opposition
- Leaders’ political
- pponents and free press
demand transparency.
- Gives leaders more clear
picture of military effectiveness/probability
- f victory.
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When democracies are attacked, they are more likely to win...
- Soldiers from
democracies are better trained and have better morale than soldiers from autocracies.
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Examples of democratic selection into conflicts/restraint? From book? Your own?
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Do all autocracies fight wars in the same way? How are they distinct?
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Do all autocracies fight wars in the same way? How are they distinct?
- Weeks: autocracies vary on two dimensions:
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Do all autocracies fight wars in the same way? How are they distinct?
- Weeks: autocracies vary on two dimensions:
○ Is leader personalist? ■ Can members of leader's’ inner circle be assured
- f keeping positions if leader is deposed?
○ Do leaders/elites have a military background?
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Do all autocracies fight wars in the same way? How are they distinct?
- Weeks: autocracies vary on two dimensions:
○ Is leader personalist? ■ Can members of leader's’ inner circle be assured
- f keeping positions if leader is deposed?
○ Do leaders/elites have a military background?
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Machines
- Regime insiders don’t
depend on leader for survival.
○ Regime is bureaucratic, civilian-run.
- Act more like
democracies regarding conflict.
○ Leaders are cautious.
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Juntas
- Officers can remove
junta leaders.
○ Usually if leaders fails to succeed militarily.
- More aggressive than
machines.
- Evaluate conflict from
military perspective.
○ Use of military forces may be less costly for armed forces than civilians.
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Bosses
- Civilian leader on
whom regime elites depend.
○ Usually backed by cult of personality
- More aggressive, more
likely to lose wars (or lose more in wars).
○ Bosses can keep spoils from wars and be insulated from costs.
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Strongmen
- Personalist leaders with
a military background.
○ Retain large personality cult.
- Most aggressive:
○ Have optimism of military juntas. ○ Lack constraint of officer corps.
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Which regime types would rogue states fit under?
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Are Reiter and Stam and Weeks correct? Are there problems with their arguments?
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Dealing with Rogue State Aggression
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What strategies can mitigate rogue state aggression?
Incorporate legalization/rationalist model of war.
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