ASIAN TRANSFORMATIONS Some Discussants Comments Will Martin - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ASIAN TRANSFORMATIONS Some Discussants Comments Will Martin International Food Policy Research Institute Helsinki | 14 September 2018 Myrdal Perspectives Need for multidisciplinarity Historical legacies o ethnic and religious

SLIDE 1

ASIAN TRANSFORMATIONS

Some Discussant’s Comments

Will Martin International Food Policy Research Institute Helsinki | 14 September 2018

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Myrdal Perspectives

▪ Need for multidisciplinarity ▪ Historical legacies

ethnic and religious diversity

▪ Democracy, governance and economic performance

SLIDE 3

Some Other Key Myrdal Perspectives

▪ Economic development requires a slowdown in population growth ▪ Traditional views and limited education a brake on growth ▪ Low agricultural productivity is central to low incomes and poverty ▪ Slow economic growth

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Fertility Rate: Children per Woman

1965 2016 Bangladesh 6.9 2.1 Cambodia 6.9 2.6 China 6.4 1.6 High income 2.9 1.7 India 5.8 2.3 Indonesia 5.6 2.4 Lao PDR 6.0 2.7 Malaysia 5.9 2.0 Myanmar 6.1 2.2 Pakistan 6.6 3.5 Philippines 6.8 2.9 Singapore 4.7 1.2 Sub Saharan Africa 6.7 4.8 Thailand 6.1 1.5

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Completion rates, lower secondary school, rural areas, %

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Bangladesh China India Indonesia Kenya Nigeria Pakistan

Early 90s 2010-

Source: UNESCO

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0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

GROWTH IN AGRIC OUTPUT PER CAPITA

Developing High

Source: FAO data on output at world prices, smoothed using LOESS Regression

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ECONOMIC DIVERGENCE “BIG TIME” 1820–1990

Average growth: High inc.: 1.6% pa Developing: 0.9% pa. 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1820 1870 1913 1960 1990 Per capita income '000 1990 PPP

High Developing

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1 2 3 4 5 6 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 GDP Growth Rate, PPP

MUCH HIGHER GROWTH IN POOR COUNTRIES 1993–2017

Developing High

Developed: Aus, Can, Jpn, NZ, US, W. Europe

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PARTICULARLY RAPID GROWTH IN ASIA

Source: WDI, 1991–2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 China India Other East Asia Other S Asia E C Asia ME N Africa L America SS Africa

Region High

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Asian Transformations

▪ Asia has been transformed since Myrdal wrote ▪ Some areas of great concern to Myrdal have turned out well ▪ Demography and population ▪ Education and economic dynamism ▪ Agricultural productivity ▪ New data shed light where Myrdal could not see ▪ Long term divergence followed by rapid convergence