Army 2040 Seminar A Methodology to Address Capability Development in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Army 2040 Seminar A Methodology to Address Capability Development in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Army 2040 Seminar A Methodology to Address Capability Development in an Uncertain Future Bruce Chapman Peter Gizewski Defence Research Development Canada/Centre for Operational Research and Analysis Acknowledgement Acknowledgment must be

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Bruce Chapman Peter Gizewski Defence Research Development Canada/Centre for Operational Research and Analysis

Army 2040 Seminar

A Methodology to Address Capability Development in an Uncertain Future

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Acknowledgement

Acknowledgment must be given to Regan Reshke and LCol Chris Rankin for the use of portions of their presentations.

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Presentation

Introduction Capability Development in the Canadian Army Conceiving the Future Army Army 2040 Seminars Conclusion

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The Canadian Army Land Warfare Centre (CALWC) advises the Commander Canadian Army (Comd CA) on the future security environment, the capabilities that will be required to operate in that environment and alternative concepts and technologies to achieve the required capabilities. The Canadian Army Land Warfare Centre (CALWC) advises the Commander Canadian Army (Comd CA) on the future security environment, the capabilities that will be required to operate in that environment and alternative concepts and technologies to achieve the required capabilities.

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Capability Time +4 +10 years +25 years

Inform FSE

Tomorrow Today Future

Develop Towards Future Capabilities

Capability Objective

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ideas Those were the ideas they were looking for…

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Bureaucracy

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Discipline

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Foresight is the process

  • f preparing

for the future.

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  • 2. Explore

external world

  • 4. Impact and

uncertainty analysis 7. Test/assess

  • 9. Communicate
  • 5. Develop

alternate future frameworks

  • 6. Write

alternate futures

  • 3. Determine

uncertainties and their polarities

  • 1. Identify focal

issue and timeframe

  • 8. Implications

and options

  • 10. Renew

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Force Management

Conceive Design Build Manage

Land Capability Development Continuum

Capability Development

Operating concepts are conceived and translated into capability requirements. Integrates the capability components to realize the implementation

  • f the

capabilities. Selected capability requirements are translated into validated designs for force employment – doctrine and structures. Manages the daily operation

  • f the Land

Force in keeping with the Managed Readiness Program.

Force Management Capability Integration Concept Development Capability Design ACDB ACDB APB 32 ACDB = Army Capability Development Board APB = Army Programme Board

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  • 2. Explore

external world

  • 4. Impact and

uncertainty analysis 7. Test/assess

  • 9. Communicate
  • 5. Develop

alternate future frameworks

  • 6. Write

alternate futures

  • 3. Determine

uncertainties and their polarities

  • 1. Identify focal

issue and timeframe

  • 8. Implications

and options

  • 10. Renew

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  • 1. Focal Issue and Time Frame

Army 2040 aim is to establish a foundation for strategic dialogue based on key areas where Army senior leadership should focus attention today in order to remain relevant in 2040.

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  • 2. Explore External World

(Environmental Scanning)

Broad based assessment of the future landscape out to 2040 to identify defence and security implications for the Army Researched eight domains considering trends, drivers, shocks and key uncertainties:

Physical (environmental) Social and political Science and technology Economic Legal Security

Six months duration with essays completed in each domain.

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  • 2. Explore External World (con’t)

(Environmental Scanning) Consider:

Trends - discernable patterns of change; Drivers - factors that directly influence or cause change; Shocks - high impact low probability events; and Key Uncertainties - unknowns and controversies to be clarified in the future.

Emphasize social as well as technological.

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  • 3. Determine Uncertainties and their Polarities

(Futures Wheel)

Futures Wheel methodology is one

  • f the most common methods

among futurists A way of organizing thinking and questioning about the future - a kind of structured brainstorming Designed to show complex interrelationships between drivers Flexible and relatively easy and straightforward to use

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  • 3. Determine Uncertainties and their Polarities
  • Impact of age & demographics on military composition
  • Energy Security
  • Exponential Technology Growth
  • Human/Social response to technology
  • Expansion of operating environments
  • Global Environmental Change
  • Globalization
  • Conflicting / Shifting Identities
  • Shifting Power Balance
  • Resource Security
  • Distribution of Wealth
  • Weapons Proliferation

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  • 3. Determine Uncertainties and their Polarities
  • Impact of age & demographics on military composition – Older vs. younger through

immigration

  • Energy Security – Sustainable vs. unsustainable
  • Exponential Technology Growth – Set the pace vs. fall behind
  • Human/Social response to technology – Reject technology vs. embrace technology
  • Expansion of operating environments – defensive capability vs. exploitation
  • Global Environmental Change – crisis reaction vs. proactive action
  • Globalization – acceleration vs. deceleration
  • Conflicting / Shifting Identities – global community vs. fragmentation
  • Shifting Power Balance – cooperative: less friction vs. competitive: more friction
  • Resource Security – sustainable supply vs. unsustainable supply
  • Distribution of Wealth – uneven vs. even
  • Weapons Proliferation – disarmament vs. proliferation

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  • 4. Impact and Uncertainty Analysis

Impact Uncertainty

Low Moderate High Low Mod High

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Environmental Change Energy Security Shock

  • 1. Demographics
  • 2. Energy Security
  • 3. Exponential Technology Growth
  • 4. Social Response to Technology
  • 5. Expansion of Operating Environs
  • 6. Global Environmental Change
  • 7. Globalization
  • 8. Conflicting / Shifting Identities
  • 9. Shifting Power balance
  • 10. Resource security
  • 11. Distribution of wealth
  • 12. Weapons proliferation

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Unsustainable – Demand Exceeds Supply Sustainable – Supply Exceeds Demand

Environment & Climate

Crisis Reaction Proactive Action

Energy

  • 5. Develop Alternative Future Framework

(Energy & Environment)

High Octane Green World Global Quagmire Materialism Gone Mad Recyclable Society

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  • 6. Write Alternative

Futures

  • 6. Write Alternate Futures

Assumptions High-Octane, Green Global Quagmire Materialism Gone MAD Recyclable Society Main Goal Prosperity Survival Material Gain Survival Chief Means Cooperation Self-Help Self-Help Cooperation Attitudes When world prospers – I prosper. World a jungle – look out for No. 1 – or die. World is a producer &

  • consumer. I

want more. We sink or swim together. Concept of Self-Interest Broad Narrow Narrow Broad Rough Analogies Concert of Europe, Early Post WWI & II Late Pre WW I & II, Middle East 56, 67, 73 Late Roman Empire, Pre & Post 9/11 Pre- Westphalian System

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Alternative futures speculate

  • n what

might happen in the future

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Future 1 – Dark Side of Exclusivity Future 2 – Deceptive Stability Future 3 – Clash of Modernities Future 4 – New Power Politics Strategic Surprises – The Challenge

  • f Disruption

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An alternative future should not be confused with a prediction

  • f the future

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Army 2040: First Look

Table of Contents Introduction Methodology Essays

Science and Technology Social Political Economy Legal Physical Military

Human Dimension Shocks or Wild Cards Alternate Futures Conclusion Further Research

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  • 2. Explore

external world

  • 4. Impact and

uncertainty analysis 7. Test/assess

  • 9. Communicate
  • 5. Develop

alternate future frameworks

  • 6. Write

alternate futures

  • 3. Determine

uncertainties and their polarities

  • 1. Identify focal

issue and timeframe

  • 8. Implications

and options

  • 10. Renew

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  • 7. Test and Assess

Four seminar wargames are being conducted to consider:

Security implications for Canada and possible missions and tasks for the Canadian Army in each particular Alternate Future. Characteristics of the Canadian Army in each particular Alternate Future Capabilities required by the Canadian Army in each particular Alternate Future

To date two of four wargames have been conducted

Materialism Gone Mad – 26-30 November 2012 High-Octane Green – 10-14 June 2013 Global Quagmire – Fall 2013 Recyclable Society – Winter 2013

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Activities

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IML Connector

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Sample Results – Missions and Tasks

High Octane Green Materialism Gone Mad

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CSEC = Communications Security Establishment Canada CSIS = Canadian Security Intelligence Service RCMP = Royal Canadian Mounted Police PSC = Public Service Commission NEO = Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation COIN =Counter Insurgency MCO = Major Combat Operations PSO = Peace Support Operations

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  • 8. Implications & Options

Capabilities within each alternative future will be measured against Land Operations 2021 in order to highlight gaps requiring further evaluation and development.

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  • 9. Communicate

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Upcoming Work

Global Quagmire – Fall 2013 Recyclable Society – Winter 2013 If you are interested in participating or learning more about the process/get publications

Bruce.Chapman@forces.gc.ca

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