Analysis and Evaluation of Hydrogen Infrastructures for Private and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
analysis and evaluation of hydrogen infrastructures for
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Analysis and Evaluation of Hydrogen Infrastructures for Private and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 02, 2024 124 likes •342 views

Analysis and Evaluation of Hydrogen Infrastructures for Private and Commercial Vehicles 15.02.2019 | SIMONAS CERNIAUSKAS, THOMAS GRUBE, MARTIN ROBINIUS, DETLEF STOLTEN IEWT 2019: 11. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INDUSTRY CONFERENCE, FREEDOM,

slide-1
SLIDE 1

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Analysis and Evaluation of Hydrogen Infrastructures for Private and Commercial Vehicles

15.02.2019 | SIMONAS CERNIAUSKAS, THOMAS GRUBE, MARTIN ROBINIUS, DETLEF STOLTEN

IEWT 2019: 11. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INDUSTRY CONFERENCE, “FREEDOM, EQUALITY, DEMOCRACY: BLESSINGS OR CHAOS FOR ENERGY MARKETS?” Technische Universität Wien, Gußhausstraße 27-29, 1040 Wien

slide-2
SLIDE 2

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

  • Process and Systems Analysis Group
  • Motivation
  • Methodology: Modeling of regional hydrogen demand
  • Results of infrastructure cost analysis:

 What are the impacts of different market segments?  What is the impact of market growth?

  • Summary and Conclusion

Outline

2

slide-3
SLIDE 3

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

3

Research Topics within the Process and Systems Analysis Group

slide-4
SLIDE 4

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

  • Hydrogen demand potential

assessment for various hydrogen applications in Germany

  • Highest demand potential during the

introduction phase:

  • Non-electrified regional trains
  • Local busses
  • Forklifts of class 1 to 3
  • Heavy and light duty vehicles
  • Vehicles that require:
  • high utilization
  • fast fueling
  • long range
  • high power capacity

Motivation

4

Regional train: non-electrified lines only, HDV: Heavy Duty Vehicle, LDV: Light Duty Vehicle, Chemical industry: Ammonia, Methanol, Petrochemical industry

Potential in [Mt/a] Introduction phase 7.4 2.7 2.2 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.07 0.9 0.3

slide-5
SLIDE 5

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Methodology: Modeling of Regional Hydrogen Demand

slide-6
SLIDE 6

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Methodology

6

Introduction phase Hydrogen Demand Potential Technology Diffusion Scenarios Penetration rate % 2020 2050 2035 Demand Localization GH2 trailer

LH 2

GH2 tank LH2 tank LH2 trailer Fuel station Hydrogen Supply Chain Analysis Electrolysis Mobility: FCEVs, Bus, Train, LDV, HDV Industry: Forklifts, Methanol, Ammonia, Refinery GH2 pipeline GH2 cavern Supply Chain Development 2 4 6 8 10 [€/kg]

Fuel station Truck Storage Compression Production

60 20 40

FCEV: Fuel cell electrical vehicle, HDV: Heavy Duty Vehicle, LDV: Light Duty Vehicle, GH2: Gaseous Hydrogen, LH2: Liquid Hydrogen

slide-7
SLIDE 7

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

HDV: Heavy Duty Vehicle, LDV: Light Duty Vehicle, MHV: Material Handling Vehicle (Forklift Class 1-3)

Methodology: Criteria for Hydrogen Demand Distribution at the County Level

7

Local bus Regional train Passenger car LDV/HDV MHV Population Diesel train lines Population Loaded road freight mass Logistic space Federal support Federal support Population density Unloaded road freight mass Freight intensity Income Fuel stations Income Fleet size Fleet size high low medium

slide-8
SLIDE 8

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Methodology: Criteria for Hydrogen Demand Distribution at the HRS Level

8

HRS: Hydrogen Refueling Station, MHV: Material Handling Vehicle (Forklift Class 1-3), FS: Fuel Station, AFV: Alternative Fuel Vehicle

* S-size: 212 kg/d, M-size: 420 kg/d, L: 1000 kg/d, XL: 1500 kg/d, XXL: 3000 kg/d ** Widely adopted view in the literature regarding the percentage of existing fuel stations for AFVs to reach sufficient infrastructure coverage: 5 - 20% [1-4] Bus HRS Train HRS Public HRS: 700 bar Non-Public HRS: 700 bar Public HRS: 350 bar Non-Public HRS: 350 bar MHV HRS 402 170 9800 7148 8000 2345 10000 Linearly based on demand Linearly among existing stations Minimize investment Based on commercial area Minimize investment Based on the commercial area Based on the logistic area Predictable demand Predictable demand S, M, L, XL, XXL* Predictable demand S, M, L, XL, XXL* Predictable demand Predictable demand Mean fleet for regional adoption: 25 Mean fleet for regional adoption: 5 Only S until 10 % of FS** Mean fleet for regional adoption: 50 Only S until 10 % of FS** Mean fleet for regional adoption: 20 Mean fleet for regional adoption: 70 Sizes Method Early phase Max.

slide-9
SLIDE 9

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

GH2: Gaseous hydrogen LH2: Liquid hydrogen LOHC: Liquid organic hydrogen carrier HDV: Heavy duty vehicle LDV: Light duty vehicle MHV: Material handling vehicle (forklift class 1-3)

Methodology: Hydrogen Supply Chain Analysis

9

[1] Reuss, M., Grube, T., Robinius, M., Preuster, P., Wasserscheid, P., & Stolten, D. (2017). Seasonal storage and alternative carriers: A flexible hydrogen supply chain model. Applied Energy, 200, 290-302. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.050

LH2

GH2 tank LH2 tank LH2 trailer GH2 trailer GH2 pipeline GH2 station LH2 station GH2 cavern GH2 station GH2 pipeline Byproduct SMR No H2 storage due to availability of natural gas Import Electrolysis [1] Mobility: Passenger car, bus, train, LDV,HDV Industry: MHV, methanol, ammonia, refinery Hydrogen Cost [€/kg] 9.6 8.8 8.0 7.2 6.4

  • General model to calculate supply chain costs

based on source-sink distance and demand

  • Geo-spatial analysis of relevant infrastructure

constraints

  • Investigation of supply pathways for different

supply and demand structures

slide-10
SLIDE 10

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

10

Methodology: Supply Chain Development – Example LH2

  • Electrolysis locations after Robinius, M., et al., Linking the Power and Transport Sectors-Part 2: Modelling a Sector Coupling

Scenario for Germany. Energies, 2017. 10(7): p. 23.

2030

LH2

LH2 tank LH2 trailer

LH2

LH2 station Liquefaction Electrolysis 2025 2023

slide-11
SLIDE 11

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

What are the impacts on different market segments?

slide-12
SLIDE 12

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Effect of Public & Non-Public Fueling Infrastructure: the Case for HDV/LDV

12

HDV: Heavy Duty Vehicle, LDV: Light Duty Vehicle, HRS: Hydrogen Refueling Station

Assumptions for introduction phase: LCOE = 6 ct/kWh, CAPEXPEMEL = 1500 €/kW, ηLHV, 2018= 67%, Storage = 60 days Fuel Station Type Max. Source Type Public HRS, 350 bar 8000 [1] S, M, L, XL, XXL Non-public HRS, 350 bar 2345 [2] Demand-dependent Focusing on non-public fueling infrastructure significantly reduces the upfront costs (fuel stations, distribution)

*Excluding value-added tax

*

slide-13
SLIDE 13

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Market Choice: Idealized Mix of Demand Sectors

13

[1] Taxing Energy Use. 2018, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

  • Approach:
  • Introduction phase: up to 400 kt p.a.
  • Each technology can be considered

either with a demand of 0 or 50 kt p.a.

  • Evaluate all 28 combinations
  • Calculate the gap to the conventional

system for a given market combination Dem- and p.a. Bus fleet Train fleet Public Car Non- Public Car Public LDV, HDV Non- Public LDV, HDV MHV 50 kt 21% 63% 3% 6% 10% 9% 20% Fuel pre-Tax after-Tax* Gasoline 8 ct/kWh 15,2 ct/kWh Choice of demand market has a significant impact on system cost Scaling of common infrastructure: Production, Storage, Transmission [1] Taxable with 3-6 ct/kWh

*

* Including energy related taxes (mineral oil tax), excluding value-added tax

  • Assumptions for introduction phase: LCOE = 6 ct/kWh, CAPEXPEM= 1500 €/kW, ηLHV, 2018= 67%, Storage = 60 days
slide-14
SLIDE 14

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Market Choice: Single Markets in the Introduction Phase (50 kt p.a.)

14

*Including energy related taxes (mineral oil tax), excluding value-added tax HDV: Heavy Duty Vehicle, LDV: Light Duty Vehicle, MHV: Material Handling Vehicle (Forklift Class 1-3) HRS: Hydrogen Refueling Station HSC: Hydrogen Supply Chain, HSC: Hydrogen Supply Chain

  • Assumption: commercial fleets

with access to commercial HRS1 do not fuel in public HRS

  • Public HRS introduction strategy

requires significantly higher upfront investment per vehicle

  • Transportation sectors with

predictable demand and MHV enable the cost gap to conventional fuels to be significantly reduced Markets for most cost efficient combinations

128% of passenger cars and 56% HDV/LDV [1]

Taxable hydrogen cost

  • Assumptions for introduction phase: LCOE = 6 ct/kWh, CAPEXPEM= 1500 €/kW, ηLHV, 2018= 67%, Storage = 60 days
slide-15
SLIDE 15

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

What is the impact of market growth?

slide-16
SLIDE 16

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Market Penetration Scenarios

16

Regional train: non-electrified lines only, HDV: Heavy Duty Vehicle, LDV: Light Duty Vehicle, MHV: Material Handling Vehicle (Forklift Class 1-3), Chemical industry: Ammonia, Methanol, Petrochemical industry

  • Scenario data base for key

technologies and application fields in the introductory phase

  • Formulation of exploratory scenarios to

analyze how hydrogen infrastructure costs might develop

  • Formulation of high, medium and low

diffusion scenarios for each hydrogen application depending on level of:

  • political support
  • economic incentives
  • technological progress
  • technology acceptance
  • willingness to pay for emission-free

applications

slide-17
SLIDE 17

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Scenario and Input Parameters

17

Regional train: non-electrified lines only, HDV: Heavy Duty Vehicle, LDV: Light Duty Vehicle, MHV: Material Handling Vehicle (Forklift Class 1-3), Chemical industry: Ammonia, Methanol, Petrochemical industry

Assumption Value Unit WACC 8 % LCOE 6 ct/kWh Natural gas cost 4 ct/kWh Imported H2 cost 11.7 [1] ct/kWh Storage time 60 [2,3] days

  • Max. electrolytic H2 production 3160 [2]

kt/a Electrolysis efficiency (2050) 70 % Electrolysis investment (2023) 1500 [4] €/kW Electrolysis learning rate 20 [5] %

  • Max. SMR H2 production

96* [6] kt/a SMR efficiency 80 [7] % Fuel station learning rate 6 [8] % Medium Hydrogen Demand Scenario

  • Dominating technology:
  • 2023 - 2030: LDVs & HDVs,

MHVs, public transport

  • After 2030: Passenger cars,

chemical industry * 5 % of todays industrial hydrogen output Medium hydrogen demand scenario

slide-18
SLIDE 18

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Infrastructure Cost Development: Medium Scenario

18

High upfront costs of pipeline system Pipeline distribution economical

  • nly for large demands

New transmission pipeline surpasses truck transport

  • Very long distribution pipeline

network incurs a high cost to the system

  • Even at low total hydrogen demand

(300 kt p.a.), hydrogen is cost- competitive with conventional fuels Gasoline after-tax

*

  • Hydrogen is cost-competitive with conventional fuels (after-tax) by 2024-2029

**Excluding value-added tax

**

Benchmark = gasoline cost 8 𝑑𝑢 𝑙𝑥ℎ + mineral oil tax 7,2 𝑑𝑢 𝑙𝑥ℎ ∗ ηFuel Cell/η𝐽𝐷𝐹 *

slide-19
SLIDE 19

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Summary and Conclusion

slide-20
SLIDE 20

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

Summary and Conclusion

20

  • High demand potential during the introduction phase for hydrogen applications with

requirements for high utilization, fast fueling, long range and high power capacity:

  • Regional non-electrified trains
  • Local busses
  • Forklifts of the class 1 to 3
  • Heavy and light duty vehicles
  • Focus on non-public fueling infrastructure significantly reduces the upfront costs of fuel

stations and distribution

  • Choice of demand market segment has a significant impact on the system cost
  • Hydrogen is cost-competitive with conventional fuels (after-tax) by 2024-2029

Cost-competitive hydrogen infrastructures can be developed within 5-10 years of investment

slide-21
SLIDE 21

IEK-3: Institute of Electrochemical Process Engineering

21

Thank you for your attention!