Climate change, demand, and winds part of the story Andrew Renton - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate change, demand, and winds part of the story Andrew Renton - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Climate change, demand, and winds part of the story Andrew Renton Senior Principal Engineer, WEANZ AGM Wellington October 2019 1 What this paper Is and Isnt Isnt Is The ultimate answer The issue and system we have The only

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Climate change, demand, and winds part of the story

Andrew Renton Senior Principal Engineer, WEANZ AGM Wellington October 2019

1

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What this paper Is and Isn’t

Is

  • The issue and system we have
  • Having a Goal
  • Demand and opportunities
  • Where we should focus
  • Are things as big and scary as

we think

2

Isn’t

  • The ultimate answer
  • The only solution
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Other Energy Transmission Providers

  • 60,000 customers
  • 2,504 high pressure gas

transmission

  • 4,800km low pressure gas

distribution

  • 40 North Island towns and

cities

3

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We have seen Change before

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The Issue,

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The Issue,

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the system,

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the target

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  • Carbon neutral energy system
  • By 2050
  • Meeting dry winter
  • Minimising end consumer

impacts

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Energy Demand

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  • From 44TWh

to 75TWh by 2050

  • 144PJ to

270PJ

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DR AFT Various scenarios indicating new supply likely locating near demand growth

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Auckland 544 150 77

GenA Peak GenM

64

Peak 71 GenA GenM 170

Northland 96 60 55

Peak GenM GenA

Bay of Plenty 39 120 50

GenA Peak GenM

Hawkes Bay 78

550 231 GenM Peak GenA

Central Districts 194

885 1,724 Peak GenM GenA

Waikato 53

Peak GenM 148 GenA 330

Taranaki 104 90 38

GenM Peak GenA

Wellington 41 150 63

Peak GenM GenA

Nelson- Marlborough 138

GenA Peak GenM 224 92

Canterbury 82

GenM Peak GenA

South Canterbury 82

GenA GenM Peak 233 554

Otago-Southland 28

GenA Peak GenM

West Coast New Zealand total growth (MW, 2020-2035) 1,580

4,122 Peak Generation max. 1,944 Generation avg.

Wind Gas Geothermal Solar Hydro Different shades of same colour represent different generation assets within the same class

2/3rds new gen expected middle/lower North Island

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DR AFT

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Wairakei Ring upgrade Estimated timing: 2025-2030 Investment driver: Supply Indicative investment: $210m Existing n-1 capacity: 655 MW Upgraded n-1 capacity: 1500 MW CNI upgrade Estimated timing: 2030-2035 Investment driver: Supply Indicative investment: $240m Existing n-1 capacity: 590 MW Upgraded n-1 capacity: 1130 MW OTA-WKM upgrade Estimated timing: beyond 2035 Investment driver: Demand Indicative investment: $190m CUWLP Estimated timing: 2030-2035 (TWI smelter assumed to remain) Investment driver: Supply Indicative investment: $105m Existing n-1 capacity: 660 MW Upgraded n-1 capacity: 950 MW USI upgrade Estimated timing: Beyond 2035 Investment driver: Demand Indicative investment: $900m

Enabling investments required for ENC medium demand scenario

Enabling investments to avoid constraints to new supply & demand connections

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Firming Wind Farm Output

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Comparison Need Vs Actual

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High Level Results

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100% Peak Load Availability

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Dry Winter challenge

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro
  • Battery storage

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro
  • Battery storage

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake 16,842hec, NZ$5.8T, 4.2M/2MW Packs

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake 16,842hec, NZ$5.8T, 4.2M/2MW Packs

Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro
  • Battery storage
  • H2 electrolysis H2 liquid

25

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro
  • Battery storage
  • H2 electrolysis H2 liquid

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake 16,842hec, NZ$5.8T, 4.2M/2MW Packs 2,399hec, NZ$118B, 2,399/35k T tanks

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro
  • Battery storage
  • H2 electrolysis H2 liquid
  • H2 electrolysis H2 CH4

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake 16,842hec, NZ$5.8T, 4.2M/2MW Packs 2,399hec, NZ$118B, 2,399/35k T tanks 0hec, NZ$1.8B, 6 injection facilities

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro
  • Battery storage
  • H2 electrolysis H2 liquid
  • H2 electrolysis H2 CH4

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake 16,842hec, NZ$5.8T, 4.2M/2MW Packs 2,399hec, NZ$118B, 2,399/35k T tanks 0hec, NZ$1.8B, 2.5 injection facilities

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake 16,842hec, NZ$5.8T, 4.2M/2MW Packs 2,399hec, NZ$118B, 2,399/35k T tanks 0hec, NZ$1.8B, 6 injection facilities

Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro
  • Battery storage
  • H2 electrolysis H2 liquid
  • H2 electrolysis H2 CH4
  • H2 electrolysis H2 NH3

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro
  • Battery storage
  • H2 electrolysis H2 liquid
  • H2 electrolysis H2 CH4
  • H2 electrolysis H2 NH3

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake 16,842hec, NZ$5.8T, 4.2M/2MW Packs 2,399hec, NZ$118B, 2,399/35k T tanks 0hec, NZ$1.8B, 6 injection facilities 190hec, NZ$7.3B, 190/35kT NH3 tanks

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake 16,842hec, NZ$5.8T, 4.2M/2MW Packs 2,399hec, NZ$118B, 2,399/35k T tanks 0hec, NZ$1.8B, 6 injection facilities 190hec, NZ$7.3B, 190/35kT NH3 tanks

Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro
  • Battery storage
  • H2 electrolysis H2 liquid
  • H2 electrolysis H2 CH4
  • H2 electrolysis H2 NH3
  • H2 electrolysis H2 LOHC

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Options to meet the challenge

  • Renewable overbuild
  • Pumped hydro
  • Battery storage
  • H2 electrolysis H2 liquid
  • H2 electrolysis H2 CH4
  • H2 electrolysis H2 NH3
  • H2 electrolysis H2 LOHC

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54,824hec, NZ$7.9B, 1013 Turbines 12,000hec, NZ$3.5B, 1 Lake 16,842hec, NZ$5.8T, 4.2M/2MW Packs 2,399hec, NZ$118B, 2,399/35k T tanks 0hec, NZ$1.8B, 6 injection facilities 190hec, NZ$7.3B, 190/35kT NH3 tanks Nett 239hec, NZ$3.1B, 239/35k LOHC tanks

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Focusing on the most promising

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  • Why CH4 & LOHC beat Pumped Hydro? They reuse sunk assets
  • How does this look over time

Option NH3 CH4 LOHC Pumped Hydro Overbuild Option NH3 CH4 LOHC Pumped Hydro Overbuild Storage NZ$7.3B NZ$1.8B NZ$3.1B NZ$3.5B

  • Option

NH3 CH4 LOHC Pumped Hydro Overbuild Storage NZ$7.3B NZ$1.8B NZ$3.1B NZ$3.5B

  • Energy Carrier

NZ$1.3B NZ$1.5B NZ$0.8B

  • Option

NH3 CH4 LOHC Pumped Hydro Overbuild Storage NZ$7.3B NZ$1.8B NZ$3.1B NZ$3.5B

  • Energy Carrier

NZ$1.3B NZ$1.5B NZ$0.8B

  • Extra Gen

NZ$3.8B NZ$3.3B NZ$3.8B NZ$1.5B NZ$8B Option NH3 CH4 LOHC Pumped Hydro Overbuild Storage NZ$7.3B NZ$1.8B NZ$3.1B NZ$3.5B

  • Energy Carrier

NZ$1.3B NZ$1.5B NZ$0.8B

  • Extra Gen

NZ$3.8B NZ$3.3B NZ$3.8B NZ$1.5B NZ$8B TOTAL NZ$12.B NZ$6.7B NZ$7.8B NZ$5B NZ$8B Option (NPV) NH3 CH4 LOHC Pumped Hydro Overbuild Storage NZ$2.3B NZ$0.18B NZ$1.5B NZ$2.2B

  • Energy Carrier

NZ$0.07B NZ$0.08B NZ$0.04B

  • Extra Gen

NZ$0.35B NZ$0.31B NZ$0.36B NZ$0.14B NZ$0.75B TOTAL NZ$2.72B NZ$0.57B NZ$1.9B NZ$2.3B NZ$0.75B

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Focusing on the most promising

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Option (NPV) NH3 CH4 LOHC Pumped Hydro Overbuild Storage NZ$2.3B NZ$0.18B NZ$1.5B NZ$2.2B

  • Energy Carrier

NZ$0.07B NZ$0.08B NZ$0.04B

  • Extra Gen

NZ$0.35B NZ$0.31B NZ$0.36B NZ$0.14B NZ$0.75B TOTAL NZ$2.72B NZ$0.57B NZ$1.9B NZ$2.3B NZ$0.75B

This is the value of using

  • Modular and Scalable solutions matching build to need over

time

  • Repurposing existing “Sunk Cost” assets
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NZ$5-8B is a lot over 20 years but so is annual…

  • NZ exports NZ$80B

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  • Land transport fuel imports NZ$6B
  • Roading spend NZ$1.8B
  • Land transport air pollution NZ$1.4B
  • Electricity consumption NZ$7.7B
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Other factors to consider

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NH3 CH4 LOHC Pumped Hydro Overbuild Positive Moderate Known Tech Modular/Scalable Minimal Known Tech Utilises Existing Modular/Scalable Repurposes existing assets Moderate Std Petro chem Modular/Scalable Enables innovative finance and energy for export Repurposes existing assets Large Scale Established Tech Large Scale Business as Usual Can make sustainable pipeline

  • f work

Modular/Scalable Negative Known but not at this sclae New Tech Consents Environmental Implications 40m

  • perating range

Single large scale Large

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Is there a practical solution we can afford?

  • YES, it will be a mix of
  • Energy efficiency
  • Demand response
  • Various Energy Vectors, storage options, type and scale
  • Modular and scalable
  • Repurposing existing assets required for H2 Vector economics
  • Falling storage costs improve dispatchability renewables
  • Need for a wider systems view identifying all costs and

benefits including wider community and intangibles

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  • Questions and discussion?
  • Andrew Renton
  • Andrew.renton@transpower.co.nz

THANKYOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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