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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 14, 2024 202 likes •408 views

Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation Kai Klckner / Peter Letmathe Agenda 1. Motivation & Fundamentals 2. Research Model & Research Questions 3. Materials & Methods 4.

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation

Kai Klöckner / Peter Letmathe

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 2

Agenda

  • 1. Motivation & Fundamentals
  • 2. Research Model & Research Questions
  • 3. Materials & Methods
  • 4. Analysis & Results
  • 5. Summary & Conclusions
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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 3

  • Energy-related CO2-emissions: ≈ 9 tons per capita and year (BMWI, 2018)
  • Necessary: ≈ 2,7 tons per capita and year (Paech, 2012)
  • In Germany, ≈ 96 % of CO2-emissions are energy-related (BMWI, 2017)
  • Decarbonisation target achievement conflicts with federal coal phase-out plans

(Heinrichs et al., 2017)

  • Decarbonisation targets are not achievable without large-scale deployment - at

least 80 GW until 2050 - of plants for the production of synthetic energy sources like hydrogen, methane or liquid fuels from renewable electricity (Henning / Palzer, 2015)

  • Interdependence between phase-out policies & low carbon technology diffusion

recognised (Rogge / Johnstone, 2017) but hardly addressed in prior research

  • In what follows: Investigation on the interplay of electrolysis technology diffusion

and coal-fired power plant closure from a systemic perspective

Motivation

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 4

Fundamentals of water electrolysis

Source: Altman et al. (2014); slightly adapted according to Nastasi / Lo Basso (2016)

In the present model: Electrolytic hydrogen production … to meet flexible hydrogen demand in the heat sector

  • takes place only at times the electrolysers can be operated with excess electricity from

RES … to meet fixed hydrogen demand in the transportation sector

  • potentially requires additional fossil fuel combustion processes to generate electricity for

the operation of electrolysers

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 5

Energy system decarbonisation Coal combustion (-) Renewable Energy (+) Flexibility / relocation Supply reliability Electrolytic hydrogen production (+) Base load power capacity (-) Storage & sector coupling (+) CO2 emissions (RQ3) Supply patterns (RQ1) Critical excess electricity (RQ2)

Research Model

No variation across scenarios Variation across scenarios System requirement Analysed indicator Decarbon- isation means

+ +

  • / +:

decrease / increase

+ + + / - +

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 6

CO2 emissions (RQ3) Supply patterns (RQ1) Critical Excess Electricity (RQ2)

Research Questions (Today’s focus on RQ2 & RQ3)

How do the coal phase-out and electrolytic hydrogen production expansion shape the decarbonisation of the German energy system during the next decade? To what extent does electrolytic hydrogen production enhance system flexibility? Which consequences arise for the German energy system, in terms of supply reliability, if the coal phase-

  • ut is implemented according to alternative proposals of

environmental associations (BUND & Greenpeace) as compared to the declared plans of federal authorities?

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 7

Modelling & Simulation with EnergyPLAN

  • Deterministic bottom-up simulation tool (developed at Aalborg University)
  • Simulates the operation of national energy systems on an hourly basis, including the

electricity, heating, cooling, industry, and transport sectors (www.energyplan.eu) Data Types Input Output Annual data

  • Power plant capacities
  • Production & consumption

volumes

  • Efficiencies
  • Emission factors

…

  • Complete energy balances
  • CO2 emissions

… Hourly profiles

  • Demand patterns
  • (Intermittent RES) generation

profiles …

  • Generation & load profiles per

technology

  • Import/export profiles

…

Work Steps

  • 1. Data collection (Sources: Federal statistics, environmental associations …)
  • 2. Model calibration
  • 3. Pathway modelling
  • 4. Simulation (strategy: balancing both heat and electricity demand)
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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 8

Scenario Definition

7 Scenario pathways modelled for the period 2020-2030

Electrolytic hydrogen production None Low (less

  • ptimistic)

High (optimistic) Coal- fired power plant closures Federal network development plan BAU

  • BUND

BUND lessOPT_BUND OPT_BUND Greenpeace (GP) Greenpeace lessOPT_GP OPT_GP

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 9

Development of power plant capacity (pillars) & electrolytic hydrogen production (lines)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000 100.000 2015 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Electrolytic hydrogen production (TWh) Base-load power capacity (MW) Coal-fired PP capacity (BAU) MW Total base-load capacity (BAU) MW Coal-fired PP capacity (Greenpeace) MW Total base-load capacity (Greenpeace) MW Coal-fired PP capacity (BUND) MW Total base-load capacity (BUND) MW H2.production_OPT TWh H2.production_less OPT TWh

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 10

Coal phase-out mainly determines decarbonisation target achievement – additional fossil fuel combustion processes triggered by fixed hydrogen demand don’t increase total emissions (RQ3)

450 500 550 600 650 700 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Energy-related CO2 emissions (Mt) CO2_BAU CO2_GP CO2_BUND CO2_OPT_GP CO2_OPT_BUND CO2_lessOPT_GP CO2_lessOPT_BUND CO2_Fed_target

OPT_GP exceeds BAU in terms of Ø-annual emissions reduction effectiveness by ≈ 5 Mio. tons of CO2 / year

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 11

Rate of electrolytic hydrogen production mainly determines system flexibility - effectiveness of other decarbonisation measures (such as RES deployment & electrification) increases with the rate of hydrogen production (RQ2) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Critical excess electricity production (CEEP) in shares of total electricity production CEEP/Electricity.Production_BAU CEEP/Electricity.Production_GP CEEP/Electricity.Production_BUND CEEP/Electricity.Production_OPT_GP CEEP/Electricity.Production_OPT_BUND CEEP/Electricity.Production_lessOPT_GP CEEP/Electricity.Production_lessOPT_BUND

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 12

Summary & Conclusions

  • Increasing usage of electrolysers for the absorption of excess electricity and the

production of hydrogen as an enabler of system flexibility and (consequentially) decarbonisation

  • Calculation of annual & hourly KPI’s for the evaluation of decarbonisation

measures in seven distinct pathway scenarios that vary with regard to the timing of the coal phase-out and the rate of electrolytic hydrogen production

  • Results strongly support the alternative coal phase-out plans and the expansion of

water electrolysis technologies but, for the achievement of federal CO2 targets, decarbonisation measures must go far beyond

  • From an environmental point of view: Policy makers should support water

electrolysis technology diffusion in the short-term even if this is initially associated with additional fossil-fuel combustion processes to operate the electrolysers

  • Decarbonisation measures should be assessed holistically under consideration of

joint effects of the underlying technology mix

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Thank you for your attention!

Kai Klöckner RWTH Aachen University School of Business and Economics Chair of Management Accounting Templergraben 64 D-52062 Aachen Tel.: +49 241 8096167 kloeckner@controlling.rwth-aachen.de

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BACK-UP

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 15

Electrolytic hydrogen production (MW)

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 16

Total CO2 emissions (Mio. t)

7.060,43 6.835,28 6.715,74 6.835,91 6.715,05 6.839,13 6.719,50 5.886,05 5.200 5.400 5.600 5.800 6.000 6.200 6.400 6.600 6.800 7.000 7.200

Total CO2 emissions (Mio. t) from 2020-2030

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 17

14,30 19,31 18,90 19,39 18,97 19,20 18,78 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Average annual CO2 emissions reduction effectiveness (Mio. t / year)

Effectivity_CO2t = Ø (CO2t+1 - CO2t)

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 18

Smart energy system analysis based on EnergyPLAN

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Short-term effectiveness of electrolytic hydrogen production for energy system decarbonisation| Kai Klöckner | RWTH Aachen - Chair of Management Accounting | 12.04.19 | 19

Base load capacity in Germany varies in relation to the pace of coal-fired power plant closures

50.609 42.684 40.756 38.827 36.899 34.971 33.042 31.114 29.185 27.257 25.328 23.400 32.638 32.563 31.228 27.703 23.679 18.294 14.822 12.146 8.586 3.154 20.000 18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000 100.000 2015 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Total base-load capacity (BAU) MW Total base-load capacity (Greenpeace) MW Total base-load capacity (BUND) MW Coal-fired PP capacity (BAU) MW Coal-fired PP capacity (Greenpeace) MW Coal-fired PP capacity (BUND) MW