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Analysing power system impacts using solar radiation data for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Analysing power system impacts using solar radiation data for Australia B. Elliston, M. Kay, I. MacGill, M. Diesendorf University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia Why care about extreme events? Source: Illawarra Mercury Why care about

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Analysing power system impacts using solar radiation data for Australia

  • B. Elliston, M. Kay, I. MacGill, M. Diesendorf

University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia

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SLIDE 2

Why care about extreme events?

Source: Illawarra Mercury

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SLIDE 3

Why care about extreme events?

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Power (MW)

Lull in NEM wind power May 17-20, 2010. Data from AEMO.

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Outline

  • The CST context
  • Solar radiation data set
  • Computational method
  • Results for Australia
  • More detailed results for two locations
  • Roma (Queensland), Curnamona (SA)
  • Conclusions
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SLIDE 5

The CST context

Aqua satellite image of dust storm over NSW. Source: Geoscience Australia

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The CST context

Simulated 100MW trough plant in Cobar, NSW, September 2009

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What is useful for CST planning?

  • CST w/ 7+ hours storage can ride through short

periods of low irradiance

  • eg. Gemasolar
  • Characterising long low irradiance events
  • DNI < 400 W/m

2

  • How long are they?
  • When and where do they occur?
  • How frequently do they occur?
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Historical solar radiation data set

  • DNI data from BoM (1998 – 2010)
  • Satellite-derived
  • 5km x 5km x 1h resolution
  • 113,952 x 679 x 839 values
  • DNI computed via Ridley/Boland diffuse model
  • Some missing data
  • PyTables used for analysis
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SLIDE 9

Historical solar radiation data set

Satellite image (2am 13 Feb 2000) courtesy of Bureau of Meteorology

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Historical solar radiation data set

Corresponding hourly grid of estimated DNI values

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Computational method

  • Needs to be fast
  • “Embarrassingly” parallel problem
  • Method:
  • Initialise 2 working matrices: C, M
  • For each hour:

– C = (C + B) ○ B

(increment if b

i, j is 1, reset if 0)

– M = max (M, C)

  • Two result matrices:
  • Maximum duration, starting hour number
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How long are the longest events?

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2 Consecutive days

Longest events typically last 4 to 8 days across Australia

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When do the longest events occur?

January December June/July

Starting month of longest low DNI events

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Roma 10 longest events

Map courtesy of Google Maps

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Roma 10 longest events

Start (UTC) End (UTC) Hours Days 2000-02-12 2000-02-18 139 6 2008-01-14 2008-01-20 138 2010-02-27 2010-03-05 136 1998-12-29 1999-01-03 134 2010-09-16 2010-09-21 115 5 1998-04-13 1998-04-17 113 2000-04-22 2000-04-26 113 2000-11-13 2000-11-17 111 2010-01-03 2010-01-07 110 2000-11-07 2000-11-11 109

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MSLP map for 15 Feb 2000

Tropical Cyclone Marcia (category 1) in Indian Ocean

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Curnamona 10 longest events

Map courtesy of Google Maps

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Curnamona 10 longest events

Start (UTC) End (UTC) Hours 2000-02-12 2000-02-18 139 Start (UTC) End (UTC) Hours Days 1998-07-31 1998-08-04 89 4 2007-01-17 2007-01-20 83 1999-03-24 1999-03-27 71 3 2004-05-31 2004-06-30 66 2000-03-18 2000-03-20 65 2006-07-13 2006-07-15 65 2007-03-18 2007-03-21 65 2004-07-22 2004-07-24 64 2005-07-06 2005-07-08 64 2010-02-01 2010-02-03 64

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Conclusions

  • Some very long low irradiance events
  • No CST output for 5+ days
  • Storage to ride through clearly uneconomic
  • Storage insufficient to provide system security
  • North/south diversity useful
  • Longest northern events in summer
  • Longest southern events in winter
  • Diversity comes at a cost: poorer DNI in south
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Acknowledgements

  • Australian Solar Institute
  • Intersect Australia
  • NCI National Facility

Questions?