Air pollution in Europe and Asia From Science to Policy Markus - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Air pollution in Europe and Asia From Science to Policy

Markus Amann Program Director Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases

Energy/agricultural projections Emissions

(10 pollutants)

Emission control options (~2000 measures) Atmospheric dispersion Costs Environmental targets GAINS Optimization Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions

IIASA’s GAINS systems approach to identify cost-effective emission reduction strategies

GAINS - the central analytical tool for air pollution negotiations in Europe

Convention on Long-range Transboundary Pollution

1993 Second Sulphur Protocol 1999 Gothenburg Multi-pollutant/Multi-effect Protocol 2012 Revised Gothenburg Protocol

European Union

1995 EU Acidification Strategy 2001 National Emission Ceilings Directive 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution 2013 Clean Air Policy Package

1 2 3 4 5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% billion €/% gap closure

Scope for further measures Marginal health benefits Marginal emission control costs

The EU Clean Air Policy Package 2013

17 IIASA reports informing Commission, Council and Parliament

• 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Billion €/yr Scope for further measures Emission control costs Health benefits

Costs and benefits of further emission reductions in 2030

Economically rational ambition level Commission proposal

1 2 3 4 5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

billion €/% gap closure Scope for further measures

The EU Clean Air Policy Package 2013

IIASA’s 2014 Impact Assessment for European Parliament

• n implications of the Climate and Energy Policy package

Costs and benefits of further emission reductions in 2030

Economically rational ambition level Original Commission proposal

• 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Billion €/yr Scope for further measures Climate and Energy Package 2014 Energy Baseline 2012 Original Commission proposal

GAINS: From uncertain climate impacts of pollutants to robust win-win measures with climate co-benefits

16 practical measures that improve human health, increase agricultural productivity and reduce near-term temperate increase:

• Transport:

– Diesel engines, high-emitting vehicles

• Oil and gas sector:

– Venting, flaring, distribution losses

• Waste management:

– Recycling, wastewater treatment

• Heating and cook stoves:

– Clean stoves, pellets

• Agriculture:

– Rice paddies, anaerobic digestion,

• pen burning of residuals
• Modern brick production and coke ovens

Radiative forcing by substance

Source: IPCC AR5

The Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC)

Climate and Clean Air Coalition - CCAC

• Formed in 2012 to promote

implementation of these 16 measures

• Now 50 countries and 54 NGOs
• Voluntary, action-oriented, in context

with other development goals

• IIASA on Science Advisory Panel

Reference CO2 measures The 16 SLCP measures CO2 + SLCP measures

Global temperature 1900-2070

New GAINS global NH3 emission inventory

Source: GAINS model; ECLIPSE V5 scenario

Total 2010 Fertilizer 2010 Livestock 2010

Severely NH3 limited - NH3 limited - Nitrate limited

Availability

• f ‘free NH3’

Is the formation of secondary inorganic aerosols in the JingJinJi region NH3-limited?

A large fraction of PM2.5 in China consists of secondary inorganic aerosols, even during episodes

World Bank support to China

2014: NH3/nitrogen use efficiency adopted as the main direction for World Bank support for the JingJinJi Clean Air Action program

• f the Chinese government

Air quality seen as entry point for good N management practices

Daily views from the 300m tower in Beijing, May 2013

IIASA provides the key requirements for turning scientific findings into insights relevant for decision making

• Independence/perceived legitimacy of the institution
• Scientific networks involving multiple disciplines
• Quality control: Peer review + strict QAQC procedures
• Transparency, e.g., open access to models and data
• Continuous dialogue with decision makers and

stakeholders