[PPT] - AIM is paving the way to Low Carbon Asia UNFCCC COP19 November PowerPoint Presentation

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UNFCCC COP19 November 2013 Warsaw

Shuzo NISHIOKA (LoCARNet / IGES） AIM is paving the way to Low Carbon Asia

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How ? How ?

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AIM: Asia Integrated assessment Model Applied to Japanese Low Carbon Policy making

1997

Kyoto Target setting of 6% reduction in 2010

2008 PM. Fukuda Target of 2050 60-80% reduction at

G8

2009 PM. Aso Target setting for La’quila G8 summit
2009 PM. Hatoyama Target of 25% reduction in 2020
2012 Climate policy after Fukushima

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BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm

5 10 15 20 25 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 年

温室効果ガス排出量 (二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 年

気温上昇 (1990年=0.6℃)

Temperature raise (global average) Global GHG emissions

to avoid temperature rise of 2℃ from pre-industrial era,

50% GHG reductions in 2050 is required

GHG475ppm GHG: Greenhouse gases 50% reduction

Calculated by AIM/Impact [policy] Model: NIES

650 550 500

BaU

Temperature raise (above the pre-industrial level)

Year Year

GHG emissions (Gt-Ceq) 475

650 550 500

BaU

http://2050.nies.go.jp

How to set world reduction target ?

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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Mt-CO2eq

Japan’s long- term reduction target ?

18％～44％ reduction 60％～80％ reduction

From 2000 70％ cut

2050 60－80% reduction needed

Target 2 -2.6 ℃ Climate sensitivity 1.5-3.0 Burden sharing

C&C

Calculated by AIM End-use Model

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I ndustry Household Business Passenger transport Freight transport

100 200 300 400 2000 Scenario A Scenario B

Industry Household Business Passenger transport Freight transport

2050 2050 Smart consumer choices can reduce energy consumption by as much as 40-45% !

一次エネルギー供給

Coal Oil Gas

Biomass

Nuclear Hydro Solar/ Wind

100

200 300 400 500 600 2000 Scenario A Scenario B

Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar/Wind

(Mtoe)

Low carbon shift in primary energy sources via introduction of renewable energies

Use of centralized energy Use of distributed energy

2050 2050

(Mtoe)

Reduced energy demand

40-45％ reduction

Equal effort by demand & supply side

How much reduction potential each sector has ?

70％ CO2 reduction feasible

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10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 ‐10,000 ‐20,000 ‐30,000 ‐40,000 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 180,000 210,000 240,000 270,000

How much is the cost of reduction ?

Feasible with Four sets of countermeasures to achieve the target of 2020 Sets of Measures A

Negative abatement costs. Economically feasilbe

Sets of Measures B

Marginal abatement costs are under certain level

Sets of Measures C

High cost measures. Requires appropriate policy measures

1) Enhancement of Top Runner

Top energy efficiency in all sectors

Enhancement of regulation
Introduction o f bench mark regulation

2) Visualization of countermeasure activities

Information to encourage smart and rational choices

Labeling of GHG emissions
Mechanism to make the choices economically feasible (e.g.

combination with carbon offset).

Real time display of electric consumption

3) Carbin pricing

Mechanism that reduction effort is economically rewarding

Introduction of emission trading
Green tax, Environmental tax (international

competitivenss should be consideres)

4) Mechanism to enhance technology development and deployment

Strategic support for

Enhanced RPS, Feed-in Tariff
Green New Deal
Enhanced standard of energy saving building

Marginal Abatement Costs (Yen/ktCO2） GHG reduction（ktCO2eq）

AIM/Enduse[Japan]

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AIM: Asia Integrated assessment Model Applied to Japanese Low Carbon Policy making

1997

Kyoto Target setting of 6% reduction in 2010

2008 PM. Fukuda Target of 2050 60-80% reduction at

G8

2009 PM. Aso Target setting for La’quila G8 summit
2009 PM. Hatoyama Target of 25% reduction in 2020
2012 Climate policy after Fukushima

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Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant Fukushima 3.11/2011

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Established Energy and Environment Congress (2011/6/7) Electricity Cost Verification Committee Resource /energy Council Atomic Energy Commission Central Environment Council 5th Energy and Environment Meeting (2011/12/21) determined the "Basic Policy" presented for the energy options Resource /energy Council

Formulate draft options of the energy mix

Atomic Energy Commission

Formulate draft nuclear energy policy choices

Central Environment Council

Formulate draft options of the measures to cope with Global Warming

11th Energy and Environment Meeting (2012/6/29) Presentation of options (three Scenarios) Energy and Environment Meeting (2012 summer) Determination of "innovative energy and environmental strategy" New Energy Basic Plan New Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy New Measures against global warming

Innovative Energy /Environment Policy after Fukushima: June 2012 – October 2012 (Nation‐wide participatory process started)

National debate about the “options"

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Impact of Fukushima accident to policy on low‐carbon policy

1. Decline of national interest in climate change. Nuclear energy is a single issue now 2. Option to decreasing nuclear power was

addressed. Under such conditions, the

potential reduction of CO2 emissions in Japan will be significantly reduced. (See table on right) 3. Energy‐saving efforts under complete suspension of nuclear reactor increase the energy‐related knowledge and awareness of the people. Increased participation in decision‐making and radicated energy‐saving behaviour 4. Industrial expansion to renewable energy and energy systems. Activation of local initiatives 5. Now possible to strengthen energy conservation and renewable energy policy (such as FIT) 6. Planning of basic energy policy with scientific procedures to be carried out in public. [Consideration of options] Year 2020 2030 2050 target Basic Law 25* ‐ 80 Conventional plan before Fukushima 15‐ 25 40 80 Options after Fukushima 7‐ 11 23‐ 25 80 Fourth Basic Plan for Environmental

Potentials of CO2 reduction from 1990

*Included absorption［about 3.5］＋overseas procurement **Only domestic reduction Need for policy transition: Review reduction targets and the plan Promotion of energy‐saving and renewable energy and greening Fuel conversion [gas shift] Ensuring CO2 sinks Promotion JCM(Joint credit Mechanism) Promoting bilateral partnership with Asian countries

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Examples of Brochures introducing Asian Low Carbon Scenarios

Communication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world

2009/11 2012/02 2011/10 2011/03 2010/10 2007/05 2009/10 2009/11 2009/10 2013/05 2009/08,2012/11 2011/09,2012/11 2009/10,2012/02 2010/02,2012/09 2010/10,2012/10

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2013/03 2013/07 2013/10 2013/10 2010/11 2013/05

Shiga Japan Shiga Japan Kyoto Japan Jilin China Guangzhou China India Ahmedabad India Bhopal India Thailand Indonesia Iskandar Malaysia Malaysia Cyberjaya Malaysia Vietnam Bangladesh Korea Iskandar Malaysia Khon Kaen Thailand Cambodia Putrajaya Malaysia Putrajaya Malaysia

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Growing importance of actions towards low-carbon development in Asia

1990 2008 2050

Source: Presentation by Dr. Mikiko Kainuma (Nov. 2011)

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200 400 600 800 1000 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 ▲20% （90 年比） ▲80%

（90 年比）

（100歳） 1) （）内の年齢は、各年に生まれた人が2050年を迎えたときの年齢 2) GDPの将来値は国立環境研究所脱温暖化2050プロジェクト A・Bシナリオの想定値

CO2 温室効果ガス GDP

▲15% （90 年比） ▲25% （90 年比）

（80歳）（60歳）（40歳）（20歳）（0歳）

Applying IAM to the real policy process: The rad map o 2050

Oil crisis

Onset of financial crises

Rapid economic growth Japan’s asset-inflated “bubble economy”

CO2 and GHG Emissions (100 million tons CO2 eq)

GHGs

▲15% (Compared to 1990 level)

(0 years old) (20 years old) (40 years old) (60 years old) (80 years old) (100 years old)

Future GDP: Based on scenarios A and B from the NIES Low Carbon Society Research Project 2050 GDP (trillion yen)

▲20% (Compared to 1990 level) ▲25% (Compared to 1990 level)

400 80% Reduction

Different development path to low carbon world

Equal emissions/cap

Turning Point 14

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China/ASEAN？＊India？

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Long‐term trends in energy intensity (energy/GDP) Japan’s leap‐frog in Oil Crisis

Possibility of Asian countries’ Leapfrog leveraged by Climate Change

– How can we facilitate technological leap‐frogging to promote low carbon development? – What kinds of mechanisms (international/national, market/non market) could facilitate leap‐frogging to low carbon technologies?

Opportunities for Asia:

Freedom from past track of highly energy‐dependent technologies

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Demographic 2000 Demographic

2050

A Male B Male A Female B Female

4,000

4,000 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84

×1,000 people

4,000 0

4,000 0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84

Japan as the global front runner of aging societies

Scenario A: Vital Society B: Slow Society 120 million

⇒

＜100 million 16

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17 Source: Local Development WG team

Now aged society in problem Future compact city after 40 years : result of rapid infrastructure construction

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Population explosion will cease except in the South Asia region, while some countries’ populations will begin to shrink

4621 3404 882 692 404 (thousands)

Mitchell International Historical Statistics (2007) and UN, World population prospects (2006)

2050 Past Future

Asia 40 years into the future

Population: rise and fall

From Matsuoka, 2009

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Dependency ratios of population will change drastically in next forty years

20 40 60 80 100 120 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Dependency ratio (%,ratio of population aged 0-14 and 65+ per 100 population 15-64) Japan 95.9% S.Korea 83.6% Singapore 78.4% Thailand 64.2% China 63.9% SriLanka 62.9% VietNam 57.2% Indonesia 56.4% Myanmar 56.2% Mongolia 53.1% N.Korea 53.0% Malaysia 52.9% Bhutan 51.6% Brunei 50.2% Maldives 49.4% India 48.5% Pakistan 48.4% Philippines 48.4% Bangladesh 48.1% Nepal 48.1% Cambodia 46.7% Laos 44.0%

Past Future In 2050

UN, World population prospects,2006

and Asia: 40 years ahead

aged society is coming in Asia

From Matsuoka: 2009

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Low Carbon Asia Research Network: LoCARNet

Researchers community dedicating to scientific policy making process towards Low Carbon World

Bundit LIMMEECHOKC HAI Thailand Jiang KEJUN China Ho Chin SIONG Malaysia Sirintornthep TOWPRAYOO N Thailand Hak MAO Cambodia Hiroshi Tsujihara Japan

Proposed at ASEAN+3 EMM in 2011 by Government of Japan & IGES The 1st Meeting held in Bangkok, October 2012 The 2nd Meeting held in Yokohama, July 2013

Rizaldi BOER Indonesia Mikiko Kainuma Japan P.R. Shukla

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LoCARNet - Activities and Uniqueness

Network of leading researchers/research
rganisations who are deeply involved in low-

carbon growth policy processes in this region.

Science-Science-Policy Dialogue: LoCARNet

promotes research for policies towards low-carbon growth by enabling a sufficient amount of dialogue among/between scientists and policy-makers.

Ownership of knowledge by countries:

LoCARNet encourages collaboration amongst researchers in-country whose research capacity and scientific knowledge are firmly grounded in their home countries.

Regional Collaboration: LoCARNet aims to

increase in research capacity in the AP region through knowledge sharing and information h i th h f i l ti

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?China ?India

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Long-term Trends in Energy Intensity (energy/GDP) Japan’s leap-frog Possibility of Asian countries’ catch-up in Climate crisis

Learning Curve of Human Wisdom

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