SLIDE 1 The Québec-Bavarian Collaboration on Climate Change
Adapting Regional Watershed Management to Climate Change – The Québec-Bavarian Collaboration Project Q-BIC3
- R. Ludwig, M. Muerth, S. Berger,
- F. Ferber, J. Schmid & W. Mauser
& the team of Q-BIC3
SLIDE 2 Q-BIC3
# 2 23.09.2010 HydroPredict 2010 Conference, Prague
Outline
Outline of the presentation:
- Key issues of Q-BIC3
- The Ensemble of Climate Inputs &
Hydrological Models
- Challenges for Water Management of the
Danube-Main Transfer System
- Approaches to simulate adaptation of water
management to Climate Change
SLIDE 3 Q-BIC3
# 3 23.09.2010 HydroPredict 2010 Conference, Prague
Key issues of Q-BIC3
- 1. Identify impacts & adaptation options
for water resource management in Q&B
- 2. Quantify & reduce projection
uncertainties of the model chain
- 3. Investigate the required complexity of
hydrological models to estimate CC impacts
- 4. Develop a regionally transferable and
modular modeling system for integrated watershed management under CC
SLIDE 4 Q-BIC3
# 4 23.09.2010 HydroPredict 2010 Conference, Prague
Regions for the analysis
[1] Gatineau (Rapides- Farmers; 23981 km²), [2] Saint Fracois (Weedon; 2922 km²), [3] Danube (Kehlheimwinzer; 26284 km²), [4] Altmuehl (Eichstaett; 1396 km²), [5] Isar (Munich; 2814 km²), [6] Regnitz (Pettstadt; 6991 km²)
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Q-BIC3
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Uncertainty of projections Emission Scenarios Climate Modeling & Scenarios Hydrological models Management tools Adaptation strategies
Cumulative uncertainty
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Q-BIC3
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Ensemble of climate model data sets
SLIDE 7
Q-BIC3
# 7 23.09.2010 HydroPredict 2010 Conference, Prague
Ensemble of hydrological models
4 watersheds & 4 hydromodels (plus side projects)
SLIDE 8 Q-BIC3
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Challenges for water management I
Regnitz river:
- Tributary of the Main river
- winter precipitation regime
- little ground water storage
- problem of low flows in summer
Climate Change impacts?
- dP may further reduce low flows
- dT may increase water demand for
irrigation
SLIDE 9 Q-BIC3
# 9 23.09.2010 HydroPredict 2010 Conference, Prague
Challenges for water management II
Danube-Main water transfer:
- transfers about about 150 mill. m3/yr
- Brombach and Roth reservoirs built
for that purpose
- Even today competition between
recreation & water management
- Adjustment of rules and structures
to Climate Change needed?
SLIDE 10 Q-BIC3
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Challenges for water management III
Altmühlsee reservoir:
- Flood protection for Altmühl
- Water transfer to Regnitz via
Brombach reservoir
transport suspended sediments from agricultural area, but no constant inflow (Climate Change!)
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Q-BIC3
# 11 23.09.2010 HydroPredict 2010 Conference, Prague
Fuzzy Model of Water Management
The Danube-Main water transfer system is managed by human decisions based on reservoir and gauge levels Fuzzy model of water transfer set up with knowledge-based fuzzification and de- fuzzification rules of management decision
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Q-BIC3
# 12 23.09.2010 HydroPredict 2010 Conference, Prague
First results for Altmühl lake
First results show that a Water Management Model based on Fuzzy Logic Theory may be appropriate to model the decisions made by water managers
Input is upstream gauge, model computed all three possible water flow quantities
SLIDE 13 Q-BIC3
# 13 23.09.2010 HydroPredict 2010 Conference, Prague
Conclusions
Conclusions
- Bias correction of RCM data is (still desperately)
needed for hydromodel simulation
- Hydromodels produce different runoff curves even if
calibrated on same gauge time series
- Reproduction of the annual cycle of runoff and the
frequencies of high and low flows (or indicators!) are more important than R2 etc.
- Because water management often uses thresholds,
fuzzy logic seems to increase robustness and adjustability to uncertainties in simulated runoff
SLIDE 14
Q-BIC3
# 14 23.09.2010 HydroPredict 2010 Conference, Prague
Thank you
Thank you very much for your attention!!!
