Achievable Potential Study Working Group Meeting Update - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Achievable Potential Study Working Group Meeting Update - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Achievable Potential Study Working Group Meeting Update September 14, 2015 Confidential IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Overall Plan Status In Progress Not Yet Started Complete Under Review Short-Term Analysis Kickoff

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Working Group Meeting Update

Achievable Potential Study

Confidential

September 14, 2015

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Confidential

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Overall Plan

Kickoff Meeting Long-Term Analysis Short-Term Analysis Project Plan

Vision of study parameters Key items to consider Data requests Develop project plans for both short- term and long- term analyses Achievable potential 2015 - 2020 Achievable potential 2015 - 2035

Status

 Complete  Under Review  In Progress  Not Yet Started

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Confidential

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Schedule

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Completion Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Start End Start End % 1 Identify Measures and Develop Archetype Programs 1-Aug-15 30-Nov-15 10% 1.1 Develop measures and estimate measure impacts 1-Aug-15 31-Oct-15 20% 1.2 Develop archetype programs and map measures to end uses/archetype programs 1-Aug-15 31-Oct-15 15% 1.3 Estimate savings per archetype program per participant per end use 1-Oct-15 30-Nov-15 0% 1.4 Map archetype programs to subsector 1-Nov-15 30-Nov-15 0% 2 Develop LDC Profiles 1-Aug-15 30-Nov-15 10% 2.1 Segment LDC customers by sector and by subsector 1-Aug-15 31-Oct-15 20% 2.2 Segment LDC customers by access to natural gas 1-Oct-15 30-Nov-15 0% 2.3 Segment LDC customers by climate region 1-Aug-15 30-Sep-15 20% 2.4 Segment LDC customers by end use 1-Sep-15 30-Nov-15 0% 2.5 Adjust/calibrate LDC profiles to changes in sales and customer forecasts 1-Oct-15 30-Nov-15 0% 3 Develop Participation and Savings Estimates 1-Nov-15 31-Mar-16 0% 3.1 Estimation of economic potential 1-Nov-15 31-Jan-16 0% 3.2 Estimation of budget constrained achievable potential 1-Dec-15 28-Feb-16 0% 3.3 Estimation of unconstrained achievable potential 1-Dec-15 28-Feb-16 0% 3.4 Aggregate LDC savings 1-Feb-16 31-Mar-16 0% 4 Conduct Sensitivity Analysis 1-Jan-16 28-Feb-16 0% 5 Compare Potential to Baseline and Reference Forecast 1-Jan-16 28-Feb-16 0% 6 Program Enhancements and Recommendations 1-Jan-16 31-Mar-16 0% 7 Future Work / Continuous Improvement Recommendations 1-Jan-16 31-Mar-16 0% 8 Develop Report and Deliverables (Draft and Final versions) 1-Sep-16 30-Apr-16 0% Original Dates 2015 2016 Task Revised Dates

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Confidential

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Project Plan Development

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Confidential

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Short & Long Term Project Plans

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SubTask Status Estimated Completion

Short Term Project Plan Draft project plan for short term analysis was submitted to IESO. The project plan was presented to LDCs in a webinar. The draft version was updated to draft final and addressed comments received from LDCs, IESO and expert panel.

  • Mid September 2015

Long Term Project Plan Draft project plan for long term analysis was developed and submitted to IESO for review.

  • Early October 2015
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Confidential

Measure List Development & Research

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Confidential

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Measure Research

Define Market Classes Comprehensive EE Measure List

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Screen Measure Eligibility and Applicability Develop Measure Impacts and Costs

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Confidential

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Measure Research

Sample Measure List

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Confidential

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Measure Research

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Subtask Status Estimated Completion

Define Measure List

Draft Measure list submitted to IESO for review

  • n 9/11/15
  • Residential: 151 measures
  • Commercial: 215 measures
  • Industrial: 214 measures

Mid September

Define Market Classes

Draft taxonomy submitted to IESO for review

  • n 9/8/2015 to define sector, subsector, end

use and technology market classes Mid September

Screen for Eligibility

Not yet started (will screen measures for applicability by subsector and according to Conservation First Framework) Early October

Measure Impacts & Costs

Estimate measure savings, cost and EUL based on Ontario M&A document, regional TRMs, and Nexant measure library

  • Residential: In progress
  • Commercial: Not started
  • Industrial: Not started
  • Residential: Late Sept
  • Commercial: Late Oct
  • Industrial: Early Nov
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Confidential

LDC Load Profile Development

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Confidential

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles

Estimate Energy Sales & Customers by Sector by LDC Map LDCs by Access to Natural Gas

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Estimate Energy Sales & Customers by Subsector by LDC Estimate Energy Sales by End Use by LDC Forecast Changes in Customer Mix and End Use loads by Year by LDC Map LDC Load Profiles to Climate Zones

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Confidential

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles

Sample LDC Load Profile

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Confidential

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles

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Subtask Data Source(s) Status / Est. Completion

Map LDCs by Natural Gas Access

  • Enbridge and Union Gas
  • Ontario Energy Board
  • 3 climate regions and

mapped respective LDC loads to each.

  • Received data from 41

LDCs to estimate sales/customers by sector and by subsector.

  • Reviewing D&B and

MPAC data to fill in gaps in LDC data

  • Reviewing sources to

develop end use load profiles

  • Next Steps: Will

distribute draft load profiles to LDCs for review in October.

Establish & Map Climate Zones by LDC

  • International Climate Zones

Estimate Energy Sales & Customers by Sector by LDC

  • LDC submitted 2014 energy consumption

profiles

  • 2014 OEB Yearbook

Estimate Energy Sales & Customers by Subsector by LDC

  • LDC submitted segmentation data (by

NAICS code)

  • LDC submitted customer consumption

data

  • MPAC data
  • Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) data

Estimate Energy Sales by End Use by LDC

  • U.S. EIA data (CBECS, RECS, MECS)
  • Management in Ontario Industrial and

Manufacturing Sector report, 2010

  • EUF model

Forecast Changes in Customer Mix and End Use loads by Year by LDC

  • LDC load forecast data
  • IESO Gross Load Forecast
  • Office and retail space forecast research
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Confidential

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles

Established 3 Climate Regions based on International Climate Zones from ASHRAE

  • Climate Zone 5
  • Climate Zone 6
  • Climate Zone 7
  • Plus Hydro One (weighted avg.)

ASHRAE standard 90.1-2007

LDC to Climate Zone Mapping

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Confidential

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Questions

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Confidential

Nexant Canada, Inc. TD Canada Trust Tower 161 Bay Street, 27th Floor M5J 2S1 Toronto Canada www.nexant.com