Study: Example of Achievable Potential Working Group Meeting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Working Group Meeting Update

Achievable Potential Study: Example of Achievable Potential

March 04, 2016

Adoption Curves: Residential Sector Example

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Derive Status Quo Adoption Curve

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100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 2010 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2040 Participation of Eligible Customers Year m = Maximum Market Share Historic Program Performance

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Enhanced Program Adoption Curve: Non-Incentive Influences

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2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2040 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Participation of Eligible Customers Year Change in Parameter: P (Non-Incentive Influences)

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Application of Adoption Curve to Each LDC

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Start of potential savings estimate for LDC from 2015 Develop adoption curve for each measure based on historic participation and define parameters for equation. Apply LDC’s historic participation rate to the measure adoption curve with equation parameters.

Derive non-incentive effects variable: p by sector and project type (6 in total)

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Choice Model and Adoption Curves

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• Residential customers

 Simple Projects  Complex Projects

• Commercial customers

 Simple Projects  Complex Projects

• Industrial customers

 Simple Projects  Complex Projects Choice Selection by Sector and Project Type 1 Statistical Analysis 2 Define Archetype Programs by Sectors and Project Types 3 Develop Status Quo Adoption Curves for Each Archetype Program 4 Apply Non-incentive Effects Variable p to Each Archetype Program Status Quo Adoption Curve 5

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Survey to Inform Adoption Curve

Residential Program Archetypes Fraction Change in p Audit and direct install 0.06 Consumer 0.20 Residential systems and equipment 0.48 Whole-home 0.92 Behavioural 0.20 Low income 1.55 Aboriginal 1.55 New construction 0.35 Sector Number of Participants Residential 21 Commercial and Industrial 26

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Example Adoption Curve Using Historic Participation: ECM for LDC 1

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Status Quo

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Example Adoption Curve Using Historic Participation: ECM for LDC 2

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Status Quo

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Enhanced Adoption Curve: ECM for LDC 1

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Enhanced Incremental Adoption Status Quo

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Enhanced Adoption Curve: ECM for LDC 2

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Enhanced Incremental Adoption Status Quo

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Residential Measures with Adoption Curves

Measure Abbreviation Description ECM Furnace with ECM CACI Tier 1 CAC CACII Tier 2 CAC Air dry Outdoor clothesline umbrella stand or clothesline kits cfl ENERGY STAR specialty and standard spiral CFL dhw blanket Electric water heater blankets fans ENERGY STAR qualified ceiling fans fixture ENERGY STAR qualified fixtures led ENERGY STAR general purpose and specialty LEDs light control Lighting control products pipes Hot water pipe wraps powerbar Advanced power bars shell Weatherstripping (foam or V-strip packages; door frame kits) thermo Electric baseboard programmable thermostats timer Heavy-duty outdoor timers air conditioner Window air conditioner pick-up (Home/Retailer) dehumidifier dehumidifier pick-up (Home/Retailer) freezer freezer pick-up (Home/Retailer) refrigerator fridge pick-up (Home/Retailer)

Measures and Archetype Programs: Residential Sector Example

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Residential Archetype Programs

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Consumer Systems and Equipment Audit and Direct Install Whole-Home Behavioural Low Income Aboriginal New Construction

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Mapping Measures to Archetype Programs

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Mapping Adoption Curve Measures to Archetype Programs

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Program Assignment Measure Residential systems and equipment ECM Residential systems and equipment CACI Residential systems and equipment CACII Audit and direct install air dry Audit and direct install cfl Audit and direct install dhw blanket Consumer fans Consumer fixture Consumer led Consumer light control Audit and direct install pipes Audit and direct install powerbar Whole-home shell Whole-home thermo Whole-home timer Consumer air conditioner Consumer dehumidifier Consumer freezer Consumer refrigerator

200000000 400000000 600000000 800000000 1E+09 1.2E+09 1.4E+09 1.6E+09

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Example Potential Scenarios: LDC 1

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6% Savings Baseline Achievable Potential Economic Potential Technical Potential 37% 16%

Electricity Use (kWh/Year)

• 20.0

40.0 60.0 80.0 5 Year Electricity Savings (GWh) Lighting Ventilation and Circulation Miscellaneous Domestic Hot Water Space Heating Refrigerators Cooking Clothes Dryers Space Cooling Other

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Unconstrained Achievable Potential Scenario: LDC 1 (Climate Zone 6)

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55% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6%

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Applying Measure Adoption Curves to Develop Potential: LDC 1

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Start Year Sales by End Use End Use GWh % of Sales

Lighting 2,422 17% Plug Load 2,334 16% Refrigerators 1,388 10% Miscellaneous 1,252 9% Space Heating 1,169 8% Ventilation and Circulation 1,124 8% Space Cooling 1,087 8% Domestic Hot Water 1,016 7% Clothes Dryers 771 5% Cooking 743 5% Freezers 493 3% Dehumidifiers 181 1% Dishwashers 144 1% Clothes Washers 100 1% Archetype Program 5 Year GWh Savings (Achievable) % of Total Consumer 36 52% Behavioral 26 37% Whole Home 4 5% Residential Systems and Equipment 3 4% Direct Install 1 2%

200000000 400000000 600000000 800000000 1E+09 1.2E+09 1.4E+09 1.6E+09

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Example Potential Scenarios: LDC 2

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5% Savings Baseline Achievable Potential Economic Potential Technical Potential 39% 15%

Electricity Use (kWh/Year)

• 5.0

10.0 15.0 5 Year Electricity Savings (GWh) Lighting Space Heating Domestic Hot Water Plug Load Clothes Dryers Ventilation and Circulation Miscellaneous Space Cooling Refrigerators Other

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Unconstrained Achievable Potential Scenario: LDC 2 (Climate Zone 7)

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43% 22% 12% 7% 5% 5%

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Applying Measure Adoption Curves to Develop Potential: LDC 2

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Start Year Sales by End Use End Use GWh % of Sales

Space Heating 90 28% Plug Load 45 14% Lighting 37 11% Miscellaneous 35 11% Domestic Hot Water 25 8% Ventilation and Circulation 22 7% Clothes Dryers 17 5% Cooking 15 5% Freezers 15 5% Refrigerators 12 4% Space Cooling 5 2% Dehumidifiers 4 1% Dishwashers 3 1% Clothes Washers 2 1% Archetype Program 5 Year GWh Savings (Achievable) % of Total Consumer 5.6 43% Behavioral 4.7 36% Residential Systems and Equipment 1.4 11% Whole Home 1.1 9% Direct Install 0.1 1%

Next Steps

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Next Steps

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Tasks Questions about next steps?

Review results with IESO Review and finalise results Develop budgets for programs Develop budget constrained achievable potential scenario Complete quality check

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