Study: Example of Achievable Potential Working Group Meeting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Achievable Potential Study: Example of Achievable Potential Working Group Meeting Update March 04, 2016

Adoption Curves: Residential Sector Example 2

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Derive Status Quo Adoption Curve 100% m = Maximum Market Share Participation of Eligible Customers 80% 60% 40% Historic Program Performance 20% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Year 3

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Enhanced Program Adoption Curve: Non-Incentive Influences Change in Parameter: P 100% (Non-Incentive Influences) Participation of Eligible Customers 80% 60% 40% 20% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Year 4

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Application of Adoption Curve to Each LDC Develop adoption curve for each measure based on historic participation and define parameters for equation. Apply LDC’s historic participation rate to the measure adoption curve with equation parameters. Start of potential savings estimate for LDC from 2015 5

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Choice Model and Adoption Curves 3 Define Archetype Programs by Sectors and Project 1 Types Choice Selection by Sector and Project Type 2 5  Residential customers  Simple Projects Statistical Analysis Apply Non-incentive Effects  Complex Projects Variable p to Each  Commercial customers Archetype Program Status Derive non-incentive effects Quo Adoption Curve  Simple Projects variable: p by sector and  Complex Projects project type (6 in total)  Industrial customers  Simple Projects 4  Complex Projects Develop Status Quo Adoption Curves for Each Archetype Program 6

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Survey to Inform Adoption Curve Sector Number of Participants Residential 21 Commercial and Industrial 26 Residential Program Archetypes Fraction Change in p Audit and direct install 0.06 Consumer 0.20 Residential systems and equipment 0.48 Whole-home 0.92 Behavioural 0.20 Low income 1.55 Aboriginal 1.55 New construction 0.35 7

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Example Adoption Curve Using Historic Participation: ECM for LDC 1 Status Quo 8

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Example Adoption Curve Using Historic Participation: ECM for LDC 2 Status Quo 9

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Enhanced Adoption Curve: ECM for LDC 1 Enhanced Status Quo Incremental Adoption 10

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Enhanced Adoption Curve: ECM for LDC 2 Enhanced Status Quo Incremental Adoption 11

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Residential Measures with Adoption Curves Measure Abbreviation Description ECM Furnace with ECM CACI Tier 1 CAC CACII Tier 2 CAC Air dry Outdoor clothesline umbrella stand or clothesline kits cfl ENERGY STAR specialty and standard spiral CFL dhw blanket Electric water heater blankets fans ENERGY STAR qualified ceiling fans fixture ENERGY STAR qualified fixtures led ENERGY STAR general purpose and specialty LEDs light control Lighting control products pipes Hot water pipe wraps powerbar Advanced power bars shell Weatherstripping (foam or V-strip packages; door frame kits) thermo Electric baseboard programmable thermostats timer Heavy-duty outdoor timers air conditioner Window air conditioner pick-up (Home/Retailer) dehumidifier dehumidifier pick-up (Home/Retailer) freezer freezer pick-up (Home/Retailer) refrigerator fridge pick-up (Home/Retailer) 12

Measures and Archetype Programs: Residential Sector Example 13

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Residential Archetype Programs Systems and Equipment Behavioural Audit and Direct Install Low Income Consumer Aboriginal Whole-Home New Construction 14

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Mapping Measures to Archetype Programs 15

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Mapping Adoption Curve Measures to Archetype Programs Program Assignment Measure Residential systems and equipment ECM Residential systems and equipment CACI Residential systems and equipment CACII Audit and direct install air dry Audit and direct install cfl Audit and direct install dhw blanket Consumer fans Consumer fixture Consumer led Consumer light control Audit and direct install pipes Audit and direct install powerbar Whole-home shell Whole-home thermo Whole-home timer Consumer air conditioner Consumer dehumidifier Consumer freezer Consumer refrigerator 16

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Example Potential Scenarios: LDC 1 1.6E+09 Baseline 6% Savings 1.4E+09 Achievable Potential 1.2E+09 Electricity Use (kWh/Year) 16% Economic Potential 1E+09 37% 800000000 600000000 Technical Potential 400000000 200000000 0 17

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Unconstrained Achievable Potential Scenario: LDC 1 (Climate Zone 6) 5 Year Electricity Savings (GWh) - 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 Lighting Ventilation and Circulation Miscellaneous Domestic Hot Water Space Heating Refrigerators 6% 55% 10% 9% 8% 7% Cooking Clothes Dryers Space Cooling Other 18

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Applying Measure Adoption Curves to Develop Potential: LDC 1 Start Year Sales by End Use End Use GWh % of Sales Lighting 2,422 17% Plug Load 2,334 16% Refrigerators 1,388 10% 5 Year GWh Archetype Program Savings % of Total Miscellaneous 1,252 9% (Achievable) Space Heating 1,169 8% Consumer 36 52% Ventilation and Circulation 1,124 8% Behavioral 26 37% Whole Home 4 5% Space Cooling 1,087 8% Residential Systems and Domestic Hot Water 1,016 7% Equipment 3 4% Direct Install 1 2% Clothes Dryers 771 5% Cooking 743 5% Freezers 493 3% Dehumidifiers 181 1% Dishwashers 144 1% Clothes Washers 100 1% 19

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Example Potential Scenarios: LDC 2 1.6E+09 Baseline 5% Savings 1.4E+09 Achievable Potential 1.2E+09 Electricity Use (kWh/Year) 15% Economic Potential 1E+09 39% 800000000 600000000 Technical Potential 400000000 200000000 0 20

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Unconstrained Achievable Potential Scenario: LDC 2 (Climate Zone 7) 5 Year Electricity Savings (GWh) - 5.0 10.0 15.0 Lighting Space Heating Domestic Hot Water Plug Load Clothes Dryers 5% Ventilation and Circulation 43% 22% 12% 7% Miscellaneous 5% Space Cooling Refrigerators Other 21

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Applying Measure Adoption Curves to Develop Potential: LDC 2 Start Year Sales by End Use End Use GWh % of Sales Space Heating 90 28% Plug Load 45 14% Lighting 37 11% 5 Year GWh Archetype Program Savings % of Total Miscellaneous 35 11% (Achievable) Domestic Hot Water 25 8% Consumer 5.6 43% Ventilation and Circulation 22 7% Behavioral 4.7 36% Residential Systems and Clothes Dryers 17 5% Equipment 1.4 11% Cooking 15 5% Whole Home 1.1 9% Direct Install 0.1 1% Freezers 15 5% Refrigerators 12 4% Space Cooling 5 2% Dehumidifiers 4 1% Dishwashers 3 1% Clothes Washers 2 1% 22

Next Steps 23

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Next Steps Complete quality check Review results with IESO Tasks Develop budgets for programs Develop budget constrained achievable potential scenario Review and finalise results Questions about next steps? 24

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