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Achievable Potential Study Working Group Meeting Update November 24, 2015 Project Plan Development <Insert Footer> 2 IESO Achievable Potential Analysis Short and Long Term Analyses - Project Plans Estimated Sub-Task Status Completion

SLIDE 1

Working Group Meeting Update

Achievable Potential Study

November 24, 2015

SLIDE 2

2 <Insert Footer>

Project Plan Development

SLIDE 3

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Short and Long Term Analyses - Project Plans

3 3

Sub-Task Status Estimated Completion

Short Term Project Plan The final plan was sent to Working Group and posted on website. Long Term Project Plan Draft project plan for long term analysis was developed and submitted to IESO for review. Nexant is updating the plan to a final version.

Early December

2015

SLIDE 4

LDC Load Profile Development

4 <Insert Footer>

SLIDE 5

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles

Unique profile for each LDC:

Customer segmentation.
Energy use by each sector and subsector.

Purpose of LDC Profiles Objective:

Bottom-up analysis approach to capture market differences between LDCs.
Achievable potential more accurately reflecting LDC specific opportunities.

Key input in achievable potenial model:

Applicable archetype programs will be applied to each LDC Profile to estimate energy

efficiency potential per LDC.

SLIDE 6

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles – Taxonomy and Relative Impact on Potential

Sector Subsectors End Uses Savings Impact High Low Moderate Taxonomy Residential Single Family Row House; MURB Low Rise MURB High Rise Low Income Other Residential Buildings Space Heating Space Cooling Domestic Hot Water Ventilation & Circulation Lighting Cooking Refrigerators Freezers Clothes Washers Clothes Dryers Dishwashers Plug Load Dehumidifiers; Misc Commercial Small Office Large Office Non Food Retail Restaurant Lodging Hospitals Nursing Home Schools Universities TCU Warehouse Wholesale Data Center Other Commercial Buildings Lighting Interior General Lighting Interior High Bay Lighting Exterior Computer Equipment Other Plug Loads Cooking Refrigeration Heating Cooling – Chillers Cooling DX HVAC Ventilation Domestic Hot Water Misc. Industrial Primary Metals Paper Mfg Auto Parts Mfg Chemical Mfg Plastics & Rubber Mfg Food & Beverage Mfg Fabricated Metals Wood Products Petroleum Refineries Mining Electronic Mfg Agriculture

Misc. Industrial

Process Heating Process Cooling Process Specific Compressed Air Motors-Pumps Motors-Fans/Blowers Motors-Other Lighting HVAC Electrochemical Other

SLIDE 7

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles

Obtain 2014 OEB Yearbook data.
Develop LDC bottom up kWh estimate using best available secondary sources

(global approach applied to all LDCs).

Compare and apply LDC provided data where applicable.
Sum of LDC totals to derive provincial total.
Compare bottom up LDC totals and provinvial total with 2014 OEB Yearbook
data. Review analysis against OEB data:
Each bottom up LDC total ± 20%
Provincial total ± 5%
Apply LDC bottom up and/or LDC Segmentation data energy load distribution

(%) by sector by subsector to top-line reported 2014 OEB Yearbook energy sales.

LDC Profile Methodology

SLIDE 8

Non-Residential MURB

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Bottom-Up Methodology: Residential Sector

kWh / Premise # of Premises / Subsector

1 2

Total kWh / Subsector

3 4

Energy use intensity (annual kWh consumption/pr emise) by subsector, climate zone and electric heating saturation. Number of residential premises by subsector. Within each subsector multiply energy use intensity by number of premises to derive total electricity consumption within each subsector. Identify the share

f multi-unit

residential building (MURB) load that is part of the nonresidential rate class. Subtract and move associated load to commercial load profile. Sum total electricity consumption by subsector to derive total residential electricity consumption bottom-up estimate by LDC. LDC Total kWh / Subsector

5

% Profile / LDC

6

SLIDE 9

Non-Residential MURB

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Bottom-Up Methodology: Commercial Sector

kWh / Public Sector sq.ft. / Subsector

1 3

Total kWh / Subsector

4 5

For commercial subsectors which are predominantly public sector facilities identify total electricity consumption (kWh) reported from facilities in Public Sector database by LDC. Establish energy use intensity (annual kWh/square foot) for remaining subsectors by climate zone. Determine the total amount of floor space area (square footage) within each of the remaining subsectors. Within each remaining subsector multiply energy use intensity by total amount of floor space area to derive total electricity consumption within each subsector. Add in share of MURB load that is within the commercial sector. LDC Total kWh / Subsector

6

Sum total electricity consumption by subsector to derive total commercial electricity consumption bottom-up estimate by LDC. EUI (kWh / sq.ft.)

2

% Profile / LDC

7

SLIDE 10

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Bottom-Up Methodology: Industrial Sector

# of Premises / Subsector

2

Total kWh / Subsector

3

Establish energy use intensity (annual kWh consumption / premise) by facility size (small / medium / large) by subsector. Determine number of premises by

subsector. And

size (number of employees). Within each subsector multiply energy use intensity for each facility size by number of premises within that facility size bin to derive total energy consumption within each subsector. LDC Total kWh / Subsector

4

Sum total energy consumption by subsector to derive total industrial energy consumption by LDC. EUI (kWh / premise)

1

% Profile / LDC

5

SLIDE 11

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles

Review example Excel LDC Profile template:

(For ease of reference, the same examples are provided in next three slides)

SLIDE 12

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles – No LDC Data Provided

LDC Name LDC #1 Climate Zone 7 Rate Class Profile Rate Class 2014 (%) 2014 kWh Sales Source Residential 30.0% 311,158,072

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Non-Residential 30.4% 314,653,837

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

General Service < 50 kW 10.8% 111,866,043

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

General Service >= 50 kW 28.1% 291,536,313

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Large User 0.0%

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Street Lighting 0.6% 5,970,403

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Other 0.1% 1,376,936

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Total 100.0% 633,159,248 Sector Profile Residential - 2014 kWh Source

311,158,072 2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Commercial Industrial Sales Distribution (%) 91% 9%

Nexant Bottom Up Analysis

Total Sales (kWh) 284,813,264 29,840,574

Calculated

Subsector Profiles Residential Subsectors

2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh)

Source, Bottom-up Segmentation

Single Family n/a n/a

70% 209,802,549 70% 219,001,621

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Row House n/a n/a

16% 46,610,506 16% 48,653,980

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Other Residential n/a n/a

1% 1,665,585 1% 1,738,690

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Multi-Res Low Rise n/a n/a

12% 27,497,605 12% 38,172,941

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9), 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Multi-Res High Rise n/a n/a

1% 2,586,636 1% 3,590,841

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9), 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Total n/a n/a 100% 288,162,882 100% 311,158,072 Low-income households (% of residential households, including commercial MURB)

16.9%

Stats Canada (11) Electric Heating Saturation (High/Med/Low)

Avg

2014 MPAC Database (2)

Commercial Subsectors

2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh)

Source, Bottom-up Segmentation

Large Office n/a n/a

3% 10,165,872 3% 9,143,557

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Small Office n/a n/a

30% 94,770,224 30% 85,239,806

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Non Food Retail n/a n/a

14% 42,961,775 14% 38,641,392

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Food Retail n/a n/a

5% 15,786,709 5% 14,199,144

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Restaurant n/a n/a

5% 15,776,472 5% 14,189,936

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4), 2003 CBECS Database (8) Lodging n/a n/a

2% 5,411,169 2% 4,867,003

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Com Data (7) Hospitals n/a n/a

6% 18,601,165 6% 16,730,568

Public Sector Database (5) Nursing Home n/a n/a

2% 4,841,914 2% 4,354,994

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4), NRCan Com Data (7) Schools n/a n/a

2% 7,508,736 2% 6,753,632

Public Sector Database (5) Universities n/a n/a

7% 22,262,500 7% 20,023,707

Public Sector Database (5) Warehouse Wholesale n/a n/a

2% 5,742,472 2% 5,164,990

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Com Data (7) Data Center n/a n/a

0% 0%

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database, US EPA & Lawrence Berkeley Lab (10) TCU (Transportation/Communication/Utilities) n/a n/a

5% 17,399,053 5% 15,649,345

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4); 2003 CBECS Database (8)

Multi-unit Residential

n/a n/a

2% 7,747,946 2% 6,968,786

2014 MPAC Database (2); RECS Data (10); 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Other Commercial Buildings n/a n/a

15% 47,681,409 15% 42,886,404

2014 MPAC Database (2), 2003 CBECS Database (8) Total n/a n/a

100% 316,657,416 100% 284,813,264 Non-Residential - 2014 kWh

314,653,837

LDC Provided Segmentation Nexant Bottom Up Segmentation Final Segmentation (applied to 2014 OEB Final Segmentation (applied to 2014 OEB LDC Provided Segmentation Nexant Bottom Up Segmentation

SLIDE 13

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles – Complete LDC Data Provided

LDC Name LDC #2 Climate Zone 6 Rate Class Profile Rate Class 2014 (%) 2014 kWh Sales Source Residential 24.6% 268,319,726

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Non-Residential 74.4% 811,188,457

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

General Service < 50 kW 9.7% 105,738,547

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

General Service >= 50 kW 48.2% 525,135,139

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Large User 16.5% 180,314,771

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Street Lighting 0.8% 8,956,023

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Other 0.1% 1,602,430

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Total 174.4% 1,090,066,637 Sector Profile Residential - 2014 kWh Source

268,319,726 2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Commercial Industrial Sales Distribution (%) 44% 56%

LDC Segmentation Data

Total Sales (kWh) 354,995,304 456,193,153

Calculated

Subsector Profiles Residential Subsectors

2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh)

Source, Bottom-up Segmentation

Single Family 79% 200,081,163

74% 216,321,183.18 79% 211,095,395

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Row House 16% 39,853,738

8% 23,536,638.19 15% 39,450,625

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Other Residential 0%

1% 1,549,368.19 1% 2,597,015

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Multi-Res Low Rise 6% 14,384,825

9% 21,791,055.08 3% 7,577,771

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9), 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Multi-Res High Rise 0%

9% 21,851,877.91 3% 7,598,922

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9), 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Total 100% 254,319,726 100% 285,050,123 100% 268,319,726 Low-income households (% of residential households, including commercial MURB)

12.6%

Stats Canada (11) Electric Heating Saturation (High/Med/Low)

Low

2014 MPAC Database (2)

Commercial Subsectors

2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh)

Source, Bottom-up Segmentation

Large Office 25% 99,027,244

5% 19,422,721 3% 12,304,875

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Small Office 0%

30% 119,149,461 21% 75,484,751

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Non Food Retail 6% 25,439,075

9% 35,227,137 6% 22,552,247

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Food Retail 3% 11,931,398

6% 22,184,513 3% 10,577,422

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Restaurant 5% 18,480,003

5% 18,690,967 5% 16,382,891

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4), 2003 CBECS Database (8) Lodging 1% 5,446,932

1% 2,049,246 1% 4,828,814

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Com Data (7) Hospitals 3% 11,611,683

2% 9,243,983 3% 10,293,988

Public Sector Database (5) Nursing Home 1% 4,504,063

1% 3,765,821 1% 3,992,942

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4), NRCan Com Data (7) Schools 4% 15,590,290

3% 11,233,795 4% 13,821,103

Public Sector Database (5) Universities 17% 69,148,351

16% 65,543,336 17% 61,301,392

Public Sector Database (5) Warehouse Wholesale 8% 31,982,516

3% 11,562,221 8% 28,353,138

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Com Data (7) Data Center 0%

0% 1,122,597 0% 1,271,992

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database, US EPA & Lawrence Berkeley Lab (10) TCU (Transportation/Communication/Utilities) 6% 23,440,078

5% 19,183,362 6% 20,780,097

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4); 2003 CBECS Database (8)

Multi-unit Residential

4% 14,794,394

2% 7,834,870 4% 13,115,525

2014 MPAC Database (2); RECS Data (10); 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Other Commercial Buildings 17% 69,040,883

13% 52,894,890 17% 59,934,128

2014 MPAC Database (2), 2003 CBECS Database (8) Total 100% 400,436,909

100% 399,108,919 100% 354,995,304 Non-Residential - 2014 kWh

811,188,457

LDC Provided Segmentation Nexant Bottom Up Segmentation Final Segmentation (applied to 2014 OEB Final Segmentation (applied to 2014 OEB LDC Provided Segmentation Nexant Bottom Up Segmentation

SLIDE 14

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles – Partial LDC Data Provided

LDC Name LDC #3 Climate Zone 6 Rate Class Profile Rate Class 2014 (%) 2014 kWh Sales Source Residential 40.7% 238,372,212

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Non-Residential 58.1% 340,720,666

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

General Service < 50 kW 16.6% 97,255,536

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

General Service >= 50 kW 46.3% 271,308,676

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Large User 7.2% 41,942,615

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Street Lighting 0.8% 4,898,287

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Other 0.4% 2,089,574

2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Total 170.0% 586,080,738 Sector Profile Residential - 2014 kWh Source

238,372,212 2014 OEB Yearbook (1)

Commercial Industrial Sales Distribution (%) 83% 17%

LDC Segmentation Data

Total Sales (kWh) 281,820,913 58,899,753

Calculated

Subsector Profiles Residential Subsectors

2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh)

Source, Bottom-up Segmentation

Single Family n/a n/a

75% 190,851,454 75% 179,798,810

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Row House n/a n/a

12% 29,213,610 12% 27,521,688

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Other Residential n/a n/a

0% 857,811 0% 808,260

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9) Multi-Res Low Rise n/a n/a

10% 18,808,068 10% 22,661,998

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9), 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Multi-Res High Rise n/a n/a

3% 6,292,144 3% 7,581,456

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Res Data (9), 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Total n/a n/a 100% 246,023,086 100% 238,372,212 Low-income households (% of residential households, including commercial MURB)

13.8%

Stats Canada (11) Electric Heating Saturation (High/Med/Low)

Avg

2014 MPAC Database (2)

Commercial Subsectors

2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh) 2014 (%) 2014 (kWh)

Source, Bottom-up Segmentation

Large Office 42% 126,825,131

0% 0%

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Small Office 0%

34% 99,136,137 42% 119,628,279

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Non Food Retail 19% 55,841,871

12% 35,176,773 14% 38,610,548

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Food Retail 0%

4% 12,811,877 5% 14,062,506

Hemson Data (3), NRCan Com Data (7) Restaurant 0%

8% 24,128,235 3% 7,446,524

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4), 2003 CBECS Database (8) Lodging 7% 22,003,797

2% 6,423,634 7% 20,755,164

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Com Data (7) Hospitals 0%

5% 15,793,200 2% 4,874,142

Public Sector Database (5) Nursing Home 0%

2% 7,052,019 1% 2,176,414

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4), NRCan Com Data (7) Schools 7% 21,040,139

2% 5,748,004 7% 19,846,190

Public Sector Database (5) Universities 5% 15,118,951

0% 504,899 5% 14,261,007

Public Sector Database (5) Warehouse Wholesale 3% 8,291,885

2% 4,506,584 3% 7,821,352

2014 MPAC Database (2), NRCan Com Data (7) Data Center 0%

0% 0%

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database, US EPA & Lawrence Berkeley Lab (10) TCU (Transportation/Communication/Utilities) 4% 11,034,878

4% 10,877,665 4% 10,408,690

2014 Dun & Bradstreet Database (4); 2003 CBECS Database (8)

Multi-unit Residential

2% 6,768,727 1% 2,088,984

2014 MPAC Database (2); RECS Data (10); 2014 OEB Yearbook (1) Other Commercial Buildings 13% 38,618,641

22% 64,289,201 7% 19,841,114

2014 MPAC Database (2), 2003 CBECS Database (8) Total 100% 298,775,294

100% 293,216,955 100% 281,820,913 Final Segmentation (applied to 2014 OEB LDC Provided Segmentation Nexant Bottom Up Segmentation Non-Residential - 2014 kWh

340,720,666

LDC Provided Segmentation Nexant Bottom Up Segmentation Final Segmentation (applied to 2014 OEB

SLIDE 15

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles - Sources

# Source Notes Weblink (if available) 1 2014 OEB Yearbook Used to derive top-line energy consumption by rate class; and residential customer counts http://www.ontarioenergyboard.ca/OEB 2 2014 MPAC Data (IESO purchased dataset) Used to derive square footage & premise count data by residential & commercial building type https://www.mpac.ca/ 3 Hemson Study (IESO commissioned study on office and retail commercial floor space) Used to derive square footage data for office, retail, food retail building types Not applicable 4 2014 Dun & Bradstreet Data (IESO purchased dataset) Used to derive square footage and premise counts by commercial building type http://www.dnb.com/ 5 Public Sector Database Used to derive total energy consumption for schools, universities, hospitals and TCU http://www.ontario.ca/data/energy-use-and- greenhouse-gas-emissions-broader-public-sector 6 Nexant Analysis Used to derive average annual energy consumption by by industrial subsector by facility size. Not applicable 7 NRCan 2009 Commercial Building SCIEU Database Used to establish commercial subsector EUIs for Office, Schools, Universities, Warehouse, Nursing Home, Lodging, Food Retail and Non-Food Retail subsectors http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/ dpa/menus/scieu/2009/tables.cfm 8 2003 US EIA Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) Used to establish EUIs for remaining commercial subsectors (not included in NRCan data) http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/da ta/2003/ 9 NRCan 2011 Residential Building SCEU Database Used to establish residential subsector building type energy use intensities http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/ dpa/menus/sheu/2011/tables.cfm 10 US EPA & Lawrence Berkeley Lab, 2001 Data Center Report Used to establish Data Center building EUI http://eetd.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/lbnl_version_pro cieee_embargoed-1-1.pdf 11 Statistics Canada - 2006 Census (E1561 - Defined Household Income Status) Used to establish low income households http://www12.statcan.ca/census- recensement/2006/dp-pd/hlt/97-563/Index- eng.cfm

SLIDE 16

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles: Comparison of Bottom Up vs OEB (All LDCs)

Draft Resutls

Residential Sector Non-residential sector Total (Res. + Non-Res.) OEB Bottom Up % Diff

40,141 GWh 79,657 GWh 119,799 GWh 38,897 GWh 78,082 GWh 116,980 GWh 3.2% 2.0% 2.4%

Sector

SLIDE 17

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Provincial Subsector Load Profile - Residential

Single Family 71.3% Row House 7.0% Other Residential Buildings 1.5% MURB Low Rise 3.6% MURB High Rise 3.4% Low Income 13.3%

2014 Residential Load Distribution

(Bottom Up Analysis)

SLIDE 18

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Provincial Subsector Load Profile - Commercial

Large Office 11.6% Small Office 22.7% Non Food Retail 9.9% Food Retail 4.8% Restaurant 5.1% Lodging 1.4% Hospitals 2.8% Nursing Home 1.0% Schools 3.3% Universities 2.9% Warehouse Wholesale 4.7% Data Center 0.3% TCU 8.0% Multi-unit Residential 5.5% Other Commercial Buildings 16.0%

2014 Commercial Load Distribution

(Bottom Up Analysis)

SLIDE 19

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Provincial Subsector Load Profile - Industrial

Primary Metals 6.9% Paper Mfg 5.1% Auto Parts Mfg 12.9% Chemical Mfg 8.1% Plastic & Rubber Mfg 10.5% Food & Beverage Mfg 12.2% Fabricated Metals 9.7% Non-Metallic Minerals 4.0% Wood Products Mfg 3.4% Petroleum Refineries 1.2% Electronic Mfg 6.4% Mining 4.7% Agricultural 2.9% Miscellaneous Industrial 12.1%

2014 Industrial Load Distribution

(Bottom Up Analysis)

SLIDE 20

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles: Comparison of Bottom Up vs OEB by LDC

LDCs within +/- 20%: 61 LDCs outside +/- 20%: 11

SLIDE 21

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles

Submit LDC profiles to12 Working Group LDCs

LDC Profile Review: LDC WG Members

Meeting to discuss profiles Working Group LDCs review profiles:

To review and discuss LDC Profile, contact IESO (Bronwen

Smith)

IESO will arrange and coordinate webinar communication

between LDC and Nexant Finalize all profiles Completed Nov 24 Nov 20 – Dec 4 Dec 21 – Jan 15 Review LDC communication material with Working Group Nov 20 - 27

SLIDE 22

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles

LDC Profile Review: All LDCs

Develop profiles for remaining ± 60 LDCs Finalize all profiles Nov 24 - Dec 7 Dec 21 – Jan 15 ± 60 LDCs review profiles:

To review and discuss LDC Profile, contact IESO (Bronwen

Smith)

IESO will arrange and coordinate webinar communication

between LDC and Nexant

Follow up with ± 60 LDCs and adjust with new data when

applicable Dec 7 - 21 Webinar to discuss profiles Dec 14

SLIDE 23

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

LDC Load Profiles

SLIDE 24

Measure Characterization

SLIDE 25

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Measure Characterization

Define Market Classes Comprehensive EE Measure List

Screen Measure Eligibility and Applicability Develop Measure Impacts and Costs

SLIDE 26

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Measure Characterization

26 26

Subtask Status Estimated Completion

Define Measure List Draft Measure list submitted to IESO for review September 2015

Residential: 151 measures
Commercial: 215 measures
Industrial: 214 measures

Completed Define Market Classes Taxonomy to define sector, subsector, end use and technology market classes, reviewed with IESO finalized in Oct 2015. Completed Screen for Eligibility Screening measures for applicability by subsector and according to Conservation First Framework.

Residential: late Nov
Commercial: mid Dec
Industrial: mid Dec

Measure Impacts & Costs Estimate measure savings, cost and EUL based on Ontario M&A document, regional TRMs, and Nexant measure library

Residential: Draft completed
Commercial: Draft completed
Industrial: mid December
Residential: mid Dec
Commercial: Mid Dec
Industrial: late Dec

SLIDE 27

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Measure Characterization

Update residential and commercial measure workbooks with comments from IESO Next Steps Finalise draft industrial measure workbooks and review by IESO Questions about measure characterization activities?

SLIDE 28

Archetype Programs

SLIDE 29

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Archetype Programs

Objective:

Define recommended program groupings (referred to as archetype programs) applicable to

Ontario, and to be used as the basis for the achievable potential modelling.

Model at archetype program level to estimate achievable potential at LDC level.

Purpose of Archetype Programs Key element in potential analysis modelling:

Archetype programs are applied to LDC load profiles to derive achievable potential at LDC

level.

Characteristics of Archetype Programs:

Concept of archetype program.
Definition of:
Measures that are included
Subsectors and end uses being addressed
Delivery mechanism and supply chain
Financial incentive
Challenges and opportunities to consider
Application of archetype program:
Adoption curve and assumptions

SLIDE 30

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Archetype Programs

Overview of methodology to develop archetype programs

Gap analysis per sub-sector and end-use Develop list and review existing and proposed Ontario programs Jurisdictional research of North American programs Performance of existing Ontario programs Research characteristics of success Archetype Programs

SLIDE 31

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Archetype Programs: Plan and Schedule

Task Archetype Program Development Task Start Date Due Date 1 Develop list of existing and planned Ontario programs (incl. LDCs' CDM Plans) Completed Completed 2 Develop archetype program descriptions of existing and planned Ontario programs Sep-15 27-Nov-15 3 Review performance of existing programs 28-Sep-15 27-Nov-15 4 Review draft LDC end use profiles and identify gaps Completed Completed 5 Research of programs to address gaps, and to address all end uses Completed Completed 6 Develop draft list of archetype programs to address gaps, and to address all end uses 14-Oct-15 27-Nov-15 7 Review list of draft archetype programs with IESO 6-Nov-15 27-Nov-15 8 Develop archetype program descriptions and review with IESO 26-Oct-15 27-Nov-15 9 Review draft residential and commercial archetype programs with sub-WG 23-Nov-15 30-Nov-15 9.1 Submit material for review to sub-Working Group 24-Nov-15 9.2 Webinar to discuss material with sub-Working Group 24-Nov-15 9.3 Sub-Working Group submit comments to IESO 30-Nov-15 10 Review economic potential to identify any remaining gaps in programs 1-Dec-15 30-Dec-15 11 Develop final archetype programs and review with IESO 1-Jan-16 15-Jan-16 12 Review final archetype program with sub-Working Group 18-Jan-16 25-Jan-16 12.1 Submit material for review to sub-Working Group 18-Jan-16 12.2 Webinar to discuss material with sub-Working Group 20-Jan-16 12.3 Sub-Working Group submit comments to IESO 25-Jan-16 13 Finalise archetype program descriptions 25-Jan-16 31-Jan-16

SLIDE 32

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Archetype Programs

Review methodology to develop archetype programs , and preliminary list of residential and commercial archetype programs with sub-Working Group. Next Steps Questions about archetype program development activities? Address comments from sub-Working Group and develop draft final arhceytpe programs for residential and commercial sectors. Develop preliminary arhceytpe programs for industrial sector and review with sub-Working Group

SLIDE 33

Schedule and Next Steps

33 <Insert Footer>

SLIDE 34

IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Methodology Overview: Short-term Analysis

Map Archetype Programs to SubSectors and End Uses Develop Archetype Programs Access to Natural Gas Sector and Subsector Archetype Program Participation per LDC Changes to Customer Population 2015-2020 LDC Profiles Climate Region Savings Per Archetype Program and End Use List of EE Measures Annual Energy Savings per LDC 2015-2020 Budget Constrained Achievable Potential Economic Potential Unconstrained Achievable Potential Annual Aggregated LDC Savings 2015-2020 Results Analysis Comparison to Baseline and Reference Case Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Program Enhancements and New Programs End Use, Sector and Subsector Profiles

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Completion Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Start End Start End % 1 Identify Measures and Develop Archetype Programs 1-Aug-15 30-Nov-15 31-Jan-16 65% 1.1 Develop measures and estimate measure impacts 1-Aug-15 31-Oct-15 21-Dec-15 70% 1.2 Develop archetype programs and map measures to end uses/archetype programs 1-Aug-15 31-Oct-15 31-Jan-16 70% 1.3 Estimate savings per archetype program per participant per end use 1-Oct-15 30-Nov-15 31-Jan-16 0% 1.4 Map archetype programs to subsector 1-Nov-15 30-Nov-15 15-Jan-16 60% 2 Develop LDC Profiles 1-Aug-15 30-Nov-15 31-Dec-15 65% 2.1 Segment LDC customers by sector and by subsector 1-Aug-15 31-Oct-15 31-Dec-15 75% 2.2 Segment LDC customers by access to natural gas 1-Oct-15 30-Nov-15 31-Dec-15 10% 2.3 Segment LDC customers by climate region 1-Aug-15 30-Sep-15 100% 2.4 Segment LDC customers by end use 1-Sep-15 30-Nov-15 31-Dec-15 75% 2.5 Adjust/calibrate LDC profiles to changes in sales and customer forecasts 1-Oct-15 30-Nov-15 31-Dec-15 0% 3 Develop Participation and Savings Estimates 1-Nov-15 31-Mar-16 0% 3.1 Estimation of economic potential 1-Nov-15 31-Jan-16 0% 3.2 Estimation of budget constrained achievable potential 1-Dec-15 28-Feb-16 0% 3.3 Estimation of unconstrained achievable potential 1-Dec-15 28-Feb-16 0% 3.4 Aggregate LDC savings 1-Feb-16 31-Mar-16 0% 4 Conduct Sensitivity Analysis 1-Jan-16 28-Feb-16 0% 5 Compare Potential to Baseline and Reference Forecast 1-Jan-16 28-Feb-16 0% 6 Program Enhancements and Recommendations 1-Jan-16 31-Mar-16 0% 7 Future Work / Continuous Improvement Recommendations 1-Jan-16 31-Mar-16 0% 8 Develop Report and Deliverables (Draft and Final versions) 1-Sep-16 30-Apr-16 1-Nov-15 0% Original Dates 2015 2016 Task Revised Dates IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Work Plan and Schedule – Short Term Analysis

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Work Plan and Schedule – Short Term Analysis

Measure characterization: Next Steps LDC Profiles: Archetype programs: Questions about next steps?

Finalise draft measure workbooks and review with IESO
Complete draft LDC Profiles
Submit draft LDC Profiles to LDCs for review
Finalise draft archeytpe prorgrams and review with IESO and sub-

Working Group

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Work Plan and Schedule – Long Term Analysis

Completion Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Start End Start End % 1 Refine Measures 1-Sep-15 31-Oct-15 1-Oct-15 31-Dec-15 10% 2 Develop IESO Zone Profiles and Disaggregated Load Forecast 1-Nov-15 31-Dec-15 3 Estimate Economic Potential 1-Dec-15 31-Jan-16 3.1 Screen measures for cost-effectiveness 1-Dec-15 31-Jan-16 3.2 Measure-level assessment 1-Dec-15 31-Jan-16 4 Bundle Cost-Effective Measures and Map to End Use Markets 1-Jan-16 28-Feb-16 5 Comparison and Calibration of Economic Potential with EUF Model Potential 1-Jan-16 28-Feb-16 6 Estimate Achievable Long Term Potential 1-Feb-16 31-Mar-16 6.1 Long term unconstrained achievable potential 1-Feb-16 31-Mar-16 6.2 Long term constrained achievable potential 1-Feb-16 31-Mar-16 6.3 Long term cost curves 1-Mar-16 31-Mar-16 7 Results Analysis 1-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 7.1 Sensitivity analysis 1-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 7.2 Long term planning and desing insights 1-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 7.3 Gas integration 1-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 8 Develop Report and Deliverables (Draft and Final versions) 1-Oct-16 31-May-16 Revised Dates 2016 Original Dates 2015 Task

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IESO Achievable Potential Analysis

Work Plan and Schedule – Long Term Analysis

Measure characterization: Next Steps IESO Zone Profiles: Questions about next steps?

Screen measure list for short term anlaysis for applicability to long

term analysis

Research new and emerging technologies
Disaggregate base year load by sector and subsector
Obtain data for transmission connected customers and add to

applicable IESO Zone Profiles

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Questions

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