Ontario Achievable Potential Study 20 February 2015 R. Neal - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ontario Achievable Potential Study

20 February 2015

• R. Neal Elliott, P.E., Ph.D.

Associate Director for Research American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

The American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy (ACEEE)

• ACEEE is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit that acts as a catalyst

to advance energy efficiency policies, programs, technologies, investments, & behaviors

• 50 staff; headquarters in Washington, D.C.
• Focus on end-use efficiency in industry, buildings, &

transportation

• Other research in economic analysis; behavior; energy

efficiency programs; & national, state, & local policy

• Funding:
• Foundation Grants (52%)
• Contract Work & Gov’t. Grants (20%)
• Conferences & Publications (20%)
• Contributions & Other (8%)

www.aceee.org Twitter: @ACEEEdc

Why do a potential study?

• Provide analytic basis for energy efficiency as a

resource

• Quantify the EE resource for system planning
• Identify & prioritize market sectors, EE measure
• pportunities
• Inform development of utility savings targets
• Determine funding levels for EE programs
• Inform program design in order to achieve near- and

long-term savings potential

• Reassess energy efficiency opportunities as

conditions/markets change

Different Levels of EE Studies

Match the level of analysis to the needs of the stakeholders, e.g.:

• Detailed utility program planning;
• Province-wide achievable potential for long-term

goal-setting;

• Making the case for efficiency policies and

programs – policy measures, consumer benefits, and jobs.

Policy Achievable Resource Cost-Effective Resource

Identify and engage all key stakeholders upfront to understand goals of the study.

ACEEE Shift from “Achievable” Analysis to “Policy” Analysis

Link potential to set of tangible policy options. Bounded by cost-effective efficiency resource assessment (economic potential). Audience is a broad group of policymakers, advocates, utilities, etc. Stakeholders want information on costs, economic benefits, and jobs. Based on program experience elsewhere, e.g. time it takes to ramp up programs.

ACEEE Shift from “Achievable” Analysis to “Policy” Analysis

Realistic achievable potential Maximum achievable potential Achievable potential  Energy efficiency resource standards/targets  Building energy codes and enforcement  State and local facility performance contracting  State-led financing programs  Combined heat & power  Rural and agriculture programs  Water efficiency standards  Enabling policies: pricing and education

Considerations for Conducting Potential Studies

Source: EPA 2007

Strategic Questions

• What is the desired outcome/goal?
• Who is the study trying to influence?
• What are the target audience’s key

issues/framing?

• Who can reach the target audience? And how?
• What are their likely questions?
• Who is the major opposition & what are their

concerns/arguments?

• What is the optimal timing for study release?

Lessons Learned

• Reference case forecast & avoided costs are

some of most contentious issues — least important to recommendations

• “Every state/province/city is unique”
• Regional studies often don’t carry political weight or

reflect local politics

• Beware of study fatigue/dueling studies
• Studies have short political & practical shelf-life

Lessons Learned (Continued)

• Communicate with stakeholders throughout

the process:

• Need to conduct follow-up policy implementation

support for success

• Data confusion
• Focus can easily get shifted to data confusion from

key issues the study is addressing

• Focus on a few key, understandable messages that

convey the findings

• Transparency, transparency, transparency!!!

Strategies for Responding to Regional Variation

One approach:

• First step: detailed demographic & market

characterization of all LDCs’ customers

• Aggregate LDC’s with similar demographics

together

• Develop program portfolios for aggregated

groupings & estimate potential savings

Defining “Achievable”

• Balance participation rate vs. savings
• Customer awareness is import program

element—balance marketing vs. incentive budgets

• Capture full range of EE Benefits
• Look at programs by sector
• Define prior conditions for sector allocation of

programs

• Understand unique market needs—engage

customers

• Cost effectiveness varies by program—don’t expect

low income programs to achieve same level as large institutional program

Contact Information:

• R. Neal Elliott, Ph.D., P.E.

Associate Director for Research

ACEEE

529 14th street NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC 20045

rnelliott@aceee.org 202-507-4009 Visit us on the Web at: www.aceee.org Follow us on Twitter at: @aceeedc