“Accelerating Condensate Development in the Heart of the Montney While Retaining Capital Flexibility”
TSX: AAV Investor Presentation March 2019
Accelerating Condensate Development in the Heart of the Montney - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Accelerating Condensate Development in the Heart of the Montney While Retaining Capital Flexibility Investor Presentation TSX: AAV March 2019 ADVANTAGE AT A GLANCE TSX 52-week trading range $1.80 - $4.80 Shares Outstanding (basic) 186
“Accelerating Condensate Development in the Heart of the Montney While Retaining Capital Flexibility”
TSX: AAV Investor Presentation March 2019
ADVANTAGE AT A GLANCE
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TSX 52-week trading range $1.80 - $4.80 Shares Outstanding (basic) 186 million Market Capitalization $0.4 billion Enterprise Value $0.7 billion 2018 Estimated Production (1) Total Production 41,651 boe/d Liquids Production 1,491 bbls/d Exit Liquids Production 1,974 bbls/d 2019 Guidance (2) Total Production 43,500 to 46,500 boe/d Liquids Production (100% Increase) 3,100 bbls/d Exit Liquids Production ~4,500 bbls/d
Advantage holds 131,840 net acres (206 net sections) in the condensate-rich Montney Glacier/Pipestone fairway
Glacier Progress Valhalla Pipestone/ WembleyAdvantage Montney Assets
Notes: (1) 2018 operational and financial results are estimates only and have not been reviewed
(2) Forward-looking information. Refer to three year development plan (page 11) and Advisory for material assumptions and risk factors.
2019-2021 DEVELOPMENT PLAN FURTHER STRENGTHENS BUSINESS MODEL
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Free Cash Generating Asset Ultra-low Costs Financial Strength & Flexibility World Class Montney Resource
Solid Today Solid Tomorrow
Reinvest to Diversify & Enhance Free Cash Generation Maintain & Strengthen Netbacks Preserve & Enhance Investment Returns Condensate/Light Oil & Natural Gas Capital Allocation Flexibility
4 Valhalla Wembley Pipestone/
6 miles
2019-2021 DEVELOPMENT PLAN - INTERNALLY-FUNDED GROWTH (1)
Condensate & Light Oil Focused
– 42 Pipestone/Wembley – 14 Valhalla – 36 Glacier – 4 Progress
initial Pipestone/Wembley development
Glacier gas plant for growth at Valhalla, Glacier, Progress & 3rd party processing income
Pipestone/Wembley
Progress
Glacier/Pipestone Liquids Development ‘The Next Phase’
Glacier ‘The Foundation’
Notes: (1) Forward-looking information. Refer to three year development plan (page 11) and Advisory for material assumptions and risk factors.
215 129 11 61 590 188 <25 bbls/mmcf 25-100 bbls/mmcf >100 bbls/mmcf
Deep Liquids-Rich Inventory (1)(2)(3)
Booked Undeveloped Unbooked Upside
OPERATIONS OVERVIEW – SHIFTING TO MIDDLE MONTNEY LIQUIDS
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bbls/mmcf)
Liquids-rich Middle Montney
(1) Management Estimates. Refer to Advisory. (2) Based on Sproule December 31, 2018 Reserves Report. (3) C3+ shallow cut recoveries.TOTAL future location inventory ~1,200 to 1,400
Glacier Pipestone/ Wembley Valhalla Progress
PIPESTONE/WEMBLEY – LIQUIDS RICH DEVELOPMENT
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Area Well Performance Average Initial Production (boe/d) Average over 1- Year Production (boe/d) TOTAL EUR (boe)
Oil 581 303 361,000 Gas 409 260 384,000 NGL 160 101 150,000 Total 1,150 664 895,000
Liquid Yield Bbls/mmcf300 260 225
Half-cycle Economics(1)(2)
(AECO Cdn $2.00/mcf & $US 60/bbl WTI)Rate of Return % Payout Years Breakeven(3) 160% - 200% 0.8 – 1.0 <$1.00/mcf
Pipestone Oil Corp
Blackbird Energy
Pipestone BBI CNQ ECA Kelt
AAV 1,312 boe/d 62% liquids
(1) Management estimates. (2) Rate of Return is the percentage return earned on the capital invested in a well during the well’s producing life assuming initial capital of $5.3 million per well DCE+T (drilling, completion, equipping and tie-in) with natural gas and NGL prices and costs escalated at 1.5% annually. (3) Breakeven based on NPV10 pre-tax equal to zero and calculated AECO Cdn price. (4) There are 11 proved and no probable undeveloped locations booked by our independent reserve evaluator in this area. Refer to Appendix and Advisory.VALHALLA LIQUIDS DEVELOPMENT ADVANCING
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Half-cycle Economics(1)(2)
(AECO Cdn $2.00/mcf & $US 60/bbl WTI)
Rate of Return % Payout Years Breakeven(3)
(AECO Cdn $)
40% - 90% 1.4 – 2.2 <$1.00/mcf
have proven ultra-rich condensate
Q1 2019
Glacier gas plant through new AAV liquids hub
Competitor well IP30 1,400 boe/d 68% liquids
Middle Montney 3 Lower Montney Middle Montney 2 Middle Montney 4 Upper Montney
(1) Management estimates. (2) Rate of Return is the percentage return earned on the capital invested in a well during the well’s producing life assuming initial capital of $4.8 million per well DCE+T (drilling, completion, equipping and tie-in) with natural gas and NGL prices and costs escalated at 1.5% annually. (3) Breakeven based on NPV10 pre-tax equal to zero and calculated AECO Cdn price. (4) There are 13 proved and 1 probable undeveloped locations booked by our independent reserve evaluator in this area. All remaining locations are unbooked estimates by Management. Refer to Appendix and Advisory.AAV Liquids Handling Hub
2 well pad completion planned February 2019
LIQUIDS-RICH MIDDLE MONTNEY AT GLACIER STEPPING UP
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Half-cycle Economics(1)(2)
(AECO Cdn $2.00/mcf & $US 60/bbl WTI)
Rate of Return % Payout Years Breakeven(3)
(AECO Cdn $)
40% - 90% 1.4 – 2.2 <$1.00/mcf
Montney
range from 25-80 bbls/mmcf
Only 41 Middle Montney drills to date
STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE CONTROL, FLEXIBLE PIPELINE ACCESS
Advantage Gas Plant Company Land Company Gas Plant TransCanada Pipeline Pembina Pipeline Advantage Pipeline Alliance Pipeline Pembina NGL LineAlliance Sales Gas Line NGTL Sales Gas Mainline
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100% Owned Glacier Gas Plant – 400 mmcf/d Raw Gas + 6,800 bbls/d C3+ Liquids Extraction
Keyera Pipestone Plant (2021) Tidewater Pipestone Plant (2019) Liquids Handling HubREVENUE & MARKET DIVERSIFICATION, HEDGING AND TRANSPORTATION (1)
10 Hedging Strategy
cash expectations and preserve development project economics Market Diversification Benefits
increases commercial flexibility Transportation
available to meet requirements of 2019-2021 development plan
to minimize unutilized demand charges
Notes: (1) Forward-looking information. Refer to three year development plan (page 11) and Advisory for material assumptions and risk factors.20% 20% 15% 37% 13% 17% 13% 8% 15% 14% 22% 48% 58% 2019E 2020E 2021E Revenue Diversification Liquids Midwest US Dawn Fixed Price AECO
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
40 60 80 100 120 140 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19
Current Hedging Transactions (MMcf/d)
AECO ($Cdn/Mcf) Dawn ($US/Mmbtu) % of Production Hedged $3.09 $2.34 $1.72 $2.84 $2.83 $1.84 $1.84 $2.07 $2.75 $2.75 $3.45 $2.93 $3.01 $2.87 $2.87 $2.872019-2021 DEVELOPMENT PLAN AS AT NOVEMBER 2018 (1)
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Guidance and Estimates (2)(3)
2019 Guidance 2020 Estimate 2021 Estimate Average production (boe/day) 43,500 - 46,500 47,850 52,300 Gas production (mmcf/d) 244 to 260 245 246 Liquids production (bbls/d) 2,900 to 3,200 7,000 11,370 % Liquids / % Condensate/light oil 7% / 75% 15% / 80% 22% / 82% Royalties ($/boe) and Royalty Rate (%) $0.65 (4%) $0.90 (4%) $1.15 (4.5%) Operating Cost ($/boe) $2.00 $2.45 $2.65 Transportation Cost ($/boe) $3.35 $3.45 $3.40 G&A/Finance Cost ($/boe) $1.35 $1.35 $1.25 Cash Used in Investing Activities(6) (millions) $185 to $215 $225 $240 Net Capital Expenditures (4)(5)(6) (millions) $185 to $215 $225 $240 Capital Efficiency (4)(6) ($/boe/d) $12,800 $13,700 $12,700 Cash Provided by Operating Activities (millions) $185 $235 $315 Adjusted Funds Flow (4)(5) (millions) $185 $235 $315 per boe $11.28 $13.38 $16.56 per share $0.99 $1.25 $1.67 Total debt to adjusted funds flow (4) 1.6 1.2 0.6 WTI (US$/bbl) (2) $66.79 $66.37 $63.29 Advantage C5+/Light oil differential to WTI (CAD$/bbl) (2) $(7.00) $(6.00) $(6.00) CAD/USD exchange rate(2) $0.77 $0.77 $0.77 AECO (C$/GJ) (2) $1.68 $1.61 $1.78 Notes: 1) Forward-looking information. Refer to Advisory for cautionary statements regarding Advantage’s budget and three-year development plan including material assumptions and risk factors. 2) Based on assumptions and strip pricing effective as at October 23, 2018 as set forth above. 3) Management estimates representing mid-point of range. 4) Non-GAAP Measure which may not be comparable to similar non-GAAP measures used by other entities. Refer to Advisory. 5) Net Capital Expenditures is the same as Cash Used in Investing Activities and Adjusted Funds Flow is the same as Cash Provided by Operating Activities as no change in non-cash working capital is assumed between years and other differences are immaterial. 6) 2019 Capital Guidance updated. Refer to 2018 Year-End Reserves & Operations Update News Release dated February 11, 2019.
strong balance sheet
~$13,000/boe/d (2)
$0.65 $0.90 $1.15 $2.00 $2.45 $2.65 $3.35 $3.45 $3.00 $1.35 $1.35 $1.25 2019E 2020E 2021E
Costs ($/boe)
THREE YEAR DEVELOPMENT PLAN – STRENGTHENING FOUNDATION (1)
12 7% 15% 22%
45,000 47,850 52,300
2019E 2020E 2021E
Total Production (boe/d)
Gas Liquids % of Total
6% 9%
75% 80% 81%
3,100 7,000 11,370
2019E 2020E 2021E
Liquids Production and Composition (bbls/d)
125% 62%
C5+
Notes: (1) Forward-looking information. Refer to three year development plan (page 11) and Advisory for material assumptions and risk factors. (2) Non-GAAP measure which may not be comparable to similar non-GAAP measures used by other entities. Refer to Advisory.14,000 bbls/d Exit
Three Year Development Plan
Royalties Operating Transport G&A and Finance
Glacier 47% Valhalla 16% Wembley 26% Progress 5% Other 6%
2019 Capital By Area $200 million
Drill & Complete $445 Facility & Tie-in $177 Other $43
2019-2021 Total Capital Breakdown
67% Allocated to Drilling & Completions Drill & Complete $134 Facility & Tie-in $53 Other $13
2019 Capital Breakdown
67% Allocated to Drilling & Completions
NET CAPITAL EXPENDITURES FOCUSED ON DRILLING (1)(2)
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Glacier 29% Valhalla 12% Wembley 49% Progress 3% Other 7%
2019-2021 Total Capital By Area $665 million
Notes: (1) Forward-looking information. Refer to three year development plan (page 11) and Advisory for material assumptions and risk factors. (2) Non-GAAP measure which may not be comparable to similar non-GAAP measures used by other entities. Refer to Advisory.14
Notes: (1) Forward-looking information. Refer to three year development plan (page 11) and Advisory for material assumptions and risk factors. (2) Non-GAAP measure which may not be comparable to similar non-GAAP measures used by other entities. Refer to Advisory. (3) Gas sensitivity assumes flat price WTI US $55/bbl and liquids sensitivity assumes flat price AECO $1.40/mcf. Estimated C5+/Light Oil differential to WTI of $7.00/bbl Cdn 2019, $6.00/bbl Cdn 2020 & 2021 and Fx $0.77 Cdn/US. Other market diversification based on future prices as of October 23, 2018.DEVELOPMENT PLAN PRICE SENSITIVITY - MANAGING VOLATILITY(1)
1.9 1.5 1.0 1.7 1.4 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.7 2019 2020 2021 Total Debt to Trailing Adjusted Funds Flow Sensitivity(1)
AECO $1.30/mcf AECO $1.50/mcf AECO $1.70/mcf
1.9 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.4 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.4 2019 2020 2021 Total Debt to Trailing Adjusted Funds Flow Sensitivity(1)
WTI US$50.00/bbl WTI US$60.00/bbl WTI US$70.00/bbl
2019 BUDGET – RETAINS CAPITAL FLEXIBILITY(1)
15 2019E
Net Capital Expenditures (2)(3)
2019E
Production and Composition
Liquids Natural gas 45,000 boe/d
3,100 bbls/d 251 mmcf/d
Notes: (1) Forward-looking information. Refer to three year development plan (page 11) and Advisory for material assumptions and risk factors. (2) Non-GAAP measure which may not be comparable to similar non-GAAP measures used by other entities. Refer to Advisory. (3) 2019 Capital guidance range reduced. Refer to 2018 Year-End Reserves & Operations Update News Release dated February 11, 2019.$185 - $215 Million Budget 2019E
Total Debt to Adjusted Funds Flow (2)
<2.0x
Up to $100 million flexibility $100 million
“Advantage has flexibility to defer ~$100 million of 2019 capital spending… …with minimal impact on 2019 estimated production… …to preserve a strong balance sheet if prices remain below forecast.”
100% increase
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GLACIER – LOCATED IN THE HEART OF THE MONTNEY RESOURCE PLAY
Montney Siltstone Comparison:18
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT HAS LED TO EXCEPTIONAL EFFICIENCIES
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Production restrictionsMIDDLE MONTNEY PRODUCTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE
including >20 frac stages & numerous mechanical systems to be evaluated
Glacier land block.
2013 4 wells Gen 2: Poly CO2, & Slickwater Plug and Perf Avg 13 frac stages
Note: Production plot affected by low number of producing wells >350 days and wells being choked.2012 2 wells Gen 1: Poly CO2, Sand Plugs, Avg 15 frac stages 2014 3 wells Gen 3: Slickwater, OH Packers Avg 15 frac stages 2015 13 wells Gen 4: Slickwater, OH Packers Avg 19 frac stages
Middle Montney Budget Type Curve (IP30 5.0 mmcf/d & 5.0 Bcf) 202018 6 wells Gen 6: Slickwater, OH Packers, Stage completions Avg 34 frac stages 2016-17 6 Wells Gen 5: Slickwater, OH Packers, Cased hole & Stage completions Avg 27 frac stages
GLACIER MONTNEY ASSIGNED 2P EUR PER WELL & INTERVAL
(1) Based on Sproule 2016 - 2018 year-end reserve reports. Indicated raw gas volumes per well. Refer to Statement of Reserves Data and Other Oil and Gas Information in the Corporation’s Annual Information Forms which are available at www.sedar.com and www.advantageog.com.21 Glacier - 2P Recoveries per Interval(1)
Interval# of Gross HZ Wells 2P Recovery [bcf/well]
Developed Undeveloped Total Developed Undeveloped Total YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 1 UM 103 111 115 141 133 130 244 244 245 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.5 2 MM 12 15 22 52 65 61 64 80 83 5.8 5.6 6.4 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.7 3 MM 8 10 13 25 35 40 33 45 53 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.5 4 MM 2 3 4 5 11 14 7 14 18 6.1 7.4 7.7 5.9 6.6 6.6 6.0 6.7 6.8 5 LM 43 51 54 84 81 86 127 132 140 7.1 7.7 7.8 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.6 6.9 6.9 Total 168 190 208 307 325 331 475 515 539 Interval# of Gross HZ Wells 2P Recovery [bcf/well] Developed Undeveloped Total Developed Undeveloped Total
YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2016 YE 2017 YE 2018 1 UM 2 4 4 5 5 2 9 9 2.9 6.6 6.8 7.9 7.5 2.9 7.3 7.2 2 MM 1 2 2 5 7 1 7 9 4.4 4.3 5.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.4 4 MM 1 1 2 2 3 3 2.1 3.8 2.1 3.4 2.1 3.5 Total 3 7 7 12 14 3 19 21Valhalla - 2P Recoveries per Interval(1)
WEMBLEY MONTNEY ASSIGNED 2P EUR PER WELL & INTERVAL
(1) Based on Sproule 2017 and 2018 year-end reserve reports. Indicated raw gas volumes per well. Refer to Statement of Reserves Data and Other Oil and Gas Information in the Corporation’s Annual Information Forms which are available at www.sedar.com and www.advantageog.com.22 Wembley Montney Assigned 2P EUR Per Well & Interval(1)
Interval# of Gross HZ Wells 2P Gas & Free Liquids Recovery [bcf/well mstb/well]
Developed Undeveloped Total Developed Undeveloped Total YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2017 YE 2018 YE 2017 YE 2018 4 MM 1 11 12 2.3 358 2.3 358 2.3 358 Total 1 11 12Forward-Looking Information and Statements The information in this presentation contains certain forward-looking information and forward-looking statements (collectively, "forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable securities laws relating to the Corporation's plans and other aspects of its anticipated future operations, management focus, strategies, financial, operating and production results and business opportunities. These statements relate to future events or our future intentions or performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. The statements have been prepared by management to provide an
by the use of words such as “seek”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “continue”, “estimate”, “guidance”, “demonstrate”, “expect”, “may”, “can”, “will”, “project”, “predict”, “potential”, “target”, “intend”, “could”, “might”, “should”, “believe”, “would” and similar expressions and include statements relating to, among other things, the Corporation's 2019 to 2021 Development Plan (the "Plan"), the Plan's development focus and the timing thereof, the expected sources of funding for the Plan; expected results and benefits to be derived from the Plan include, but are not limited to, increasing the anticipated amount of annual average liquids production, increasing C5+/light oil production mix and the expected amount of C5+/light oil production mix, diversifying the Corporation's revenue sources including the composition of natural gas and liquids, developing additional operational and infrastructure optionality and how this will be achieved; annual production average and the expected amount by which total annual average production will be increased by in 2019 to 2021; expected net capital expenditures for 2019 to 2021, including the expected focus and allocation of such expenditures; the expected adjusted funds flow per share and per boe in each of 2019 to 2021; expected year- end total debt to adjusted funds flow ratios in each of 2019 to 2021; the expected cumulative adjusted funds flow and capital investment over the Plan's three years; resource development potential beyond the Plan and the Corporation's future drilling inventory; the benefits derived from third party processing arrangements the Corporation entered into with two midstream firms; whether the Corporation will extend its gathering pipelines from Glacier to Wembley; and
forward-looking statements and accordingly, no assurances can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or
With respect to the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, Advantage has made a number of material assumptions regarding, but not limited to: current and future commodity prices; the Corporation's current and future hedging program; future exchange rates; future production and composition including natural gas and liquids; royalty regimes and future royalty rates; future operating costs; future transportation costs and availability of product transportation capacity; future general and administrative costs; the estimated well costs including frac stages and lateral lengths per well; the number of new wells required to achieve the objectives of the Plan; that the Corporation will be able to complete its infrastructure projects on a timely basis; the timing for the construction to be completed on third party mid-stream facilities; timing and amount of net capital expenditures; and that the Corporation will have sufficient financial resources required to fund its capital and operating expenditures and requirements as needed.
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Management has included the summary of assumptions and risks related to forward-looking information in order to provide shareholders with a more complete perspective on Advantage's future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Advantage’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits that Advantage will derive there from. Management does not have firm commitments for all the costs, expenditures, prices or other financial assumptions used to prepare the forward-looking information or assurance that such operating results will be achieved and, accordingly, the complete financial effects of all of those costs, expenditures, prices and operating results are not objectively determinable. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists of factors are not exhaustive. The Corporation and management believe that the statements have been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting management's best estimates and judgments. However, because this information is highly subjective and subject to numerous risks including the risks discussed above, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation and Advantage disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or
These statements involve substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond Advantage’s control, including, but not limited to: changes in general economic, market and business conditions; industry conditions; impact of significant declines in market prices for oil and natural gas; actions by governmental or regulatory authorities including increasing taxes and changes in investment or other regulations; changes in tax laws, royalty regimes and incentive programs relating to the oil and gas industry; the effect of acquisitions; Advantage's success at acquisition, exploitation and development of reserves; failure to achieve production targets on timelines anticipated or at all; unexpected drilling results; changes in commodity prices, currency exchange rates, net capital expenditures, reserves or reserves estimates and debt service requirements; the occurrence of unexpected events involved in the exploration for, and the operation and development of, oil and gas properties, including hazards such as fire, explosion, blowouts, cratering, and spills, each of which could result in substantial damage to wells, production facilities, other property and the environment or in personal injury; changes or fluctuations in production levels; individual well productivity; lack of available capacity on pipelines; delays in anticipated timing of drilling and completion of wells; delays in completion of infrastructure; lack of available capacity on pipelines; individual well productivity; competition from other producers; the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management; credit risk; changes in laws and regulations including the adoption of new environmental laws and regulations and changes in how they are interpreted and enforced; our ability to comply with current and future environmental or
and natural gas reserves; competition for, among other things, capital, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel; incorrect assessments of the value of acquisitions; geological, technical, drilling and processing problems and other difficulties in producing petroleum reserves; ability to obtain required approvals of regulatory authorities; and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources. Many of these risks and uncertainties and additional risk factors are described in the Corporation’s Annual Information Form dated March 5, 2018 which is available at www.Sedar.com and www.advantageog.com. Readers are also referred to risk factors described in other documents Advantage files with Canadian securities authorities.
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Oil and Gas Information Barrels of oil equivalent ("boe") and thousand cubic feet of natural gas equivalent ("mcfe") may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. Boe and mcfe conversion ratios have been calculated using a conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas equivalent to one barrel of oil. A boe and mcfe conversion ratio of 6 mcf: 1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. This presentation discloses drilling inventory in the Glacier, Valhalla, Progress and Pipestone/Wembley areas in three categories: (i) proved locations; (ii) probable locations; and (iii) unbooked locations. Proved locations and probable locations are derived from Sproule Associates Limited reserves evaluation effective December 31, 2018 and account for drilling locations that have associated proved and/or probable reserves, as applicable. Unbooked locations are internal estimates based on our prospective acreage and an assumption as to the number of wells that can be drilled per section based on industry practice and internal review. Unbooked locations do not have attributed reserves or resources. Of the 1,200 to 1,400 total drilling locations identified herein, 327 are proved locations, 29 are probable locations and 844 to 1,044 are unbooked locations. Unbooked locations have been identified by management as an estimation of our multi-year drilling activities based on evaluation of applicable geologic, seismic, engineering, production and reserves information. There is no certainty that the Corporation will drill all unbooked drilling locations and if drilled there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production. The drilling locations on which we actually drill wells will ultimately depend upon the availability of capital, regulatory approvals, seasonal restrictions, oil and natural gas prices, costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that is obtained and other factors. While certain of the unbooked drilling locations have been de-risked by drilling existing wells in relative close proximity to such unbooked drilling locations,
and therefore there is more uncertainty whether wells will be drilled in such locations and if drilled there is more uncertainty that such wells will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production. Any references in this presentation to initial production rates or IP30 rates are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons, however, such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will continue production and decline thereafter. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for Advantage. Advantage has presented certain type curves and well economics for its Montney areas. The type curves presented are based on Advantage's historical production. Such type curves and well economics are useful in understanding management's assumptions of well performance in making investment decisions in relation to development drilling in the Montney area and for determining the success of the performance of development wells; however, such type curves and well economics are not necessarily determinative of the production rates and performance of existing and future wells and such type curves do not reflect the type curves used by our independent qualified reserves evaluator in estimating our reserves volumes. The type curves differ as a result of varying horizontal well length, stage count and stage spacing. The type
ADVISORY
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curves represent the average type curves expected. In this presentation, estimated ultimate recovery represents the estimated ultimate recovery associated with the type curves presented; however, there is no certainty that Advantage will ultimately recover such volumes from the wells it drills. In presenting such type curves, inputs and economics information and in this presentation generally, Advantage has used a number of oil and gas metrics which do not have standardized meanings and therefore may be calculated differently from the metrics presented by other oil and gas companies. Such metrics include DCE+T, "EUR", "NPV10", "payout", "rate of return" (or "ROR"), "half cycle ROR", “operating netback", and "capital efficiency". EUR represents the estimated ultimate recovery of resources associated with the type curves presented. NPV 10 represents the anticipated net present value of the future net revenue discounted at a rate of 10% associated with the type curves presented. Payout means the anticipated years of production from a well required to fully pay for the DCE+T of such well. ROR means the rate of return of a well or the discount rate required to arrive at a NPV equal to zero. Half cycle ROR means the rate of return of a well or the discount rate required to arrive at a NPV equal to zero when taking into account "half cycle" costs, which include drilling, completion, equip and tie-in capital expenditures. Production estimates contained herein are expressed as anticipated average production over the calendar year. In determining anticipated production for the years ended 2019 to 2021 Advantage considered historical drilling, completion and production results for prior years and took into account the estimated impact on production of the Corporation’s 2019 to 2021 expected drilling and completion activities.
ADVISORY
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ADVISORY
Non-GAAP Measures The Corporation discloses several financial and performance measures that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS" or “GAAP”). These financial and performance measures include “net capital expenditures”, “adjusted funds flow”, “total debt”, “total debt to adjusted funds flow”, and “capital efficiency”. Such financial and performance measures should not be considered as alternatives to, or more meaningful than measures determined in accordance with GAAP including “net income”, “comprehensive income”, “cash provided by operating activities”,
business activities and provide useful supplemental information for analysis of the Corporation’s operating performance and liquidity. Advantage’s method
“Net capital expenditures” include total capital expenditures related to property, plant and equipment and exploration and evaluation assets incurred during the period. Management considers this measure reflective of actual capital activity for the period as it excludes changes in working capital related to other
and liquids, which may be used to settle outstanding debt and obligations, and to support future capital expenditures plans. Changes in non-cash working capital are excluded from adjusted funds flow as they may vary significantly between periods and are not considered to be indicative of the Corporation’s
excluded from the calculation as the amount and timing of these expenditures are unrelated to current production, highly variable and discretionary. “Total debt” is the total of bank indebtedness and working capital deficit. “Total debt to adjusted funds flow” is a ratio calculated as total debt divided by adjusted funds flow for the previous four quarters. Total debt to adjusted funds flow is considered by management to be a useful measure as it is commonly used to evaluate the leverage of a company and the ability to settle outstanding debt and obligations with cash generated from operations. “Capital efficiency” is calculated by dividing total capital development costs for oil and gas activities including drilling, completion, facilities, infrastructure, office and capitalized general and administrative costs (excluding abandonment and reclamation costs, exploration and evaluation costs, and acquisition and disposition related costs and proceeds) by the average production additions of the applicable year to replace base production declines and deliver production growth targets, expressed in $/boe/d. Capital efficiency is considered by management to be a useful performance measure as a common metric used to evaluate the efficiency with which capital activity is allocated to achieve production additions. Refer to the Corporation’s most recent Management’s Discussion and Analysis, which is available at www.sedar.com and www.advantageog.com, for additional information about certain financial measures, including reconciliations to the nearest GAAP measures, as applicable.
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ADVISORY
Abbreviations The following abbreviations used in this presentation have the meanings set forth below. bbl barrel bbl/d barrel per day bbls/d barrels per day bbls/mmcf Barrels per million cubic feet boe barrels of oil equivalent of natural gas, on the basis of one barrel of oil or natural gas liquids for six thousand cubic feet of natural gas boe/d barrels of oil equivalent per day GJ Gigajoule mcf thousand cubic feet Mcfe thousand cubic feet equivalent on the basis of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas for one barrel of oil or natural gas liquids mmcf/d million cubic feet per day mmcfe/d million cubic feet equivalent per day NGL natural gas liquids DCE+T drill, complete, equip and tie-in C3+ propane plus C5+ pentanes plus
ADVANTAGE CONTACT INFORMATION
Investor Relations
1.866.393.0393 ir@advantageog.com www.advantageog.com Listed on TSX: AAV
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd.
Suite 300, 440 – 2nd Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta T2P 5E9 Main: 403.718.8000 Facsimile: 403.718.8332
Andy Mah, P.Eng. Director, President & Chief Executive Officer Mike Belenkie, P.Eng. Chief Operating Officer Craig Blackwood, C.A. VP Finance & Chief Financial Officer
Advantage 100% W.I. Glacier Gas Plant