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CLIMATE RESEARCH IN THE DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICS
- C. Spiteri, MALTA CLIMATE TEAM
14-19th March 2011
A regional analysis of Australian climate in relation to ENSO using - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A regional analysis of Australian climate in relation to ENSO using - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
C LIMATE R ESEARCH IN THE D EPARTMENT OF P HYSICS C. Spiteri , M ALTA C LIMATE T EAM 14-19 th March 2011 A regional analysis of Australian climate in relation to ENSO using the PRECIS regional climate model Contents: What is ENSO? Effect on
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Contents:
What is ENSO? Effect on Australian region Climate model validation
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What is ENSO?
El Niño/La Niña – Southern Oscillation is an oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño/La Niña defines differences in the sea surface temperatures. The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of ENSO.
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El Niño Phenomenon
The first signs of El Niño event El Niño effects on Australia
- Rise in surface pressure
- Westerly winds
- Higher than average surface
temperatures
- Lower than average rainfall
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Negative SOI values represents El Niño events Positive SOI values represents La Niña events Current ENSO events Flooding over Brisbane capital
- f Queensland in January 2011
during current La Niña event. Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
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Comparison of data
Measured data extracted from 12 stations.
Modelled data extracted from PRECIS RCM. Statistical Analysis: Correlation coefficient, R Meekatharra Airport Station analysis
Table: Correlation value of temperature Time frame Station 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1960-1990 R 0.89 0.89 0.91 0.77 0.91 0.91 0.71 1990-2020 R 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.76 0.93 0.92 0.81
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Comparison of Temperature at location of Meekatharra Airport Station.
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Modelled and measured spatial plots of surface pressure
Spatial plots display a 30year average of a parameter. Modelled spatial plots extracted from PRECIS, measured spatial plots extracted from Data centres. Comparison of modelled and measured spatial plots
Modelled Measured
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Conclusions
- The El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO phenomenon may be regarded as an
- scillation of the ocean-atmosphere system
- The modelled meteorological parameters which vary during El Niño events, pressure,
wind, temperature and rainfall were compared to measured and analysed.
- Negative values of the SOI, which measures the strength of the Southern
Oscillation, inidcate El Niño events.
- Analysis of annual time series for different
parameters at specific locations revealed El Niño conditions.
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Conclusions
- The El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO phenomenon may be regarded as an
- scillation of the ocean-atmosphere system
- The modelled meteorological parameters which vary during El Niño events, pressure,
wind, temperature and rainfall were compared to measured and analysed.
- Negative values of the SOI, which measures the strength of the Southern
Oscillation, inidcate El Niño events.
- Analysis of annual time series for different
parameters at specific locations revealed El Niño conditions. `
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- El Niño events are associated with an increased risk of dry conditions across large
areas of Australia.
Conclusions
- Different parameters were analysed over the whole domain by means of spatial
plots and time series.
- From results obtained, PRECIS showed what is expected.
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Thank you
E: cspi0015@um.edu.mt