A Major Shift in the Political Landscape Graphs for the report on - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

a major shift in the political landscape
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

A Major Shift in the Political Landscape Graphs for the report on - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 2012 May 2012 A Major Shift in the Political Landscape Graphs for the report on the April 2012 National Survey May 2012 Methodology National Survey April 5 20, 2012 2,000 national face-to-face interviews: 500 interviews in


slide-1
SLIDE 1

May 2012

May 2012

A Major Shift in the Political Landscape

Graphs for the report on the April 2012 National Survey

slide-2
SLIDE 2

May 2012

Methodology

National Survey

– April 5 – 20, 2012 – 2,000 national face-to-face interviews: 500 interviews in each of the following regions: Baghdad, South, West, and Kurdistan—national results weighted representatively – Margin of error +/- 2.2 percent on full sample, +/- 4.4 percent on regional samples; +/- 2.9 on total Non- Kurdistan sample – The Kurdistan region sample reflects updated population estimates increasing Dohuk to 24 percent of the region

Page 1

slide-3
SLIDE 3

May 2012

A significant positive shift in the country mood

45 41 41 37 48 44 50 50 50 44

20 40 60 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12

Right direction Wrong direction

Page 2

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

U.S. Withdrawal

slide-4
SLIDE 4

May 2012

Only Kurdistan sees a drop in right direction

48 50 65 35 26 44 35 32 58 64

20 40 60 80

Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Right Wrong

Page 3

∆ from Oct ’11 +11 -6 +1 +5 +23 -20 +19 -10 -21 +24

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

slide-5
SLIDE 5

May 2012

Perceptions of an improving economy help positive mood

46 34 33 52 38 55 49 34

20 40 60 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12

Strong Weak

Page 4

Would you say Iraq’s economy right now is strong or weak?

U.S. Withdrawal

slide-6
SLIDE 6

May 2012

Positive mood brings significant jump in Maliki job approval

40 40 39 34 53 54 54 53 58 44

20 40 60 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12

Approve Disapprove

Page 5

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-Maliki is doing as prime minister?

U.S. Withdrawal

slide-7
SLIDE 7

May 2012

53 57 83 30 10 17 99 75 72 44 39 16 64 87 80 1 23 28

20 40 60 80 100

Total Baghdad South West K'stan INA voters Da'wa voters Sadr voters ISCI voters

Approve Disapprove

∆ approve

  • Oct. ’11 +19 +12 +34 +11 +1 +11 +7 +32 +14

Maliki job approval up across regions and voter groups

Page 6

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-Maliki is doing as prime minister?

slide-8
SLIDE 8

May 2012

Significant jump in Maliki favorable ratings

41 34 34 31 45 47 47 51 49 41

20 40 60 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Apr-12

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 7

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

U.S. Withdrawal

slide-9
SLIDE 9

May 2012

45 54 73 21 3 66 14 5 41 35 17 58 78 23 67 76

  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100 Total Baghdad South West K'stan Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Δ favorable Oct ’11 +14 +13 +28 +4 -1 +20 +12 -3

Maliki favorability dramatically improves among base

Page 8

slide-10
SLIDE 10

May 2012

Maliki has strongest rating of non-Kurd pols | Non-K’stan

52 48 33 32 31 24 13 17 18 17 35 33 48 48 57 50 53 59 72 73

  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100 Maliki Sadr Jaafari Hakim Allawi Nujaifi Amiri Mahdi Hashemi Mutlaq

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY)

Page 9

Δ favorable Oct ’11 +17 +7 +7 +8 -2 +6 N/A -5* +2 -1 * Last asked in November 2010

slide-11
SLIDE 11

May 2012

Maliki’s favorability rises above Sadr’s | non-K’stan only

45 35 39 35 52 43 46 40 41 48

20 40 60 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Apr-12

Maliki - % Favorable Sadr - % Favorable

Page 10

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

U.S. Withdrawal

slide-12
SLIDE 12

May 2012

Maliki improves across all issues; outperforms Da’wa vote

22 22 27 29 30 32 32 34 37 39 49 10 10 2 7 5 4 6 3 5 3 3 23 19 2 17 12 15 16 5 14 12 8 26 28 47 26 34 24 31 38 23 25 16 19 21 22 21 19 25 15 20 21 21 24

20 40 60 80 100

Helping the poor Cares about people like you Acting like a dictator Can unite Iraq Can bring political stability Creating jobs Fights corruption More interested in power than helping Can end sectarianism Improving basic services Improving security

Maliki Hakim Sadr All/none/other/DK/ref Allawi

Page 11

For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr? (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY)

∆ Maliki Jul ’11

+22 +20 +11 N/A +15 +13 +14 +5 N/A +8 +9

∆ Allawi Jul ’11

  • 6
  • 6
  • 8

N/A

  • 10
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7

N/A

  • 6
  • 4

Da’wa non-K’stan vote: 26% INA non-K’stan vote: 14%

slide-13
SLIDE 13

May 2012

27 14 64

20 40 60 80

Total non-Kurdistan Shia Non-Kurd Sunni

Maliki

Page 12

For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr? (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY)

―Acting like a dictator‖

Maliki “acting like a dictator” | non-Kurdistan

slide-14
SLIDE 14

May 2012

Iraqis looking for a strong leader, despite drawbacks

74 73 80 82 45 77 83 48 14 16 13 8 28 15 7 23

20 40 60 80 100 Total Baghdad South West K'stan Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd

Page 13

Statement 1: It is more important to have a strong leader to keep Iraq stable, even if that means giving up some freedoms. Statement 2: It is more important to ensure social and political freedoms in Iraq, even if that means some instability.

I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

slide-15
SLIDE 15

May 2012

Significant increase in Da’wa support

22 20 21 14 12 22 16 18 16 22 8 9 10 10 10 6 5 7 6 4 6 8 8 13 11

10 20 30

Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12

Iraqi National Accord Islamic Da'wa Party Sadr Trend ISCI Und/DK/Ref

Page 14

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.

U.S. Withdrawal

slide-16
SLIDE 16

May 2012

22 12 10 5 4 2 13 11 30 12 12 6 6 2 10

10 20 30

Da'wa INA Sadr IFND ISCI NRT (No vote)(Und/ref) First bar = Total Second bar = Likely voters

Page 15

Da’wa’s growth even stronger among likely voters

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.

Δ likely voters Oct ’11 +8 -1 -1 -2 -2 -- -- --

slide-17
SLIDE 17

May 2012

Da’wa separates from other parties in South, Baghdad

27 38 9 16 6 23 13 15 5 9 5 1 2 1 16

10 20 30 40

Baghdad South West

Islamic Da'wa Party Iraqi National Accord Sadr Trend ISCI IFND

Page 16

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.

Δ Oct. ’11 +4 -4 -- +1 -1 +15 -3 -3 -3 +1 -- -- +2 -1 -1

slide-18
SLIDE 18

May 2012

Negative mood of country intensifies in Kurdistan

50 67 52 47 26 37 25 37 40 64

20 40 60 80 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12

Right direction Wrong direction

Page 17

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (KURDISTAN ONLY)

slide-19
SLIDE 19

May 2012

Getting better or worse in Iraq | Kurdistan only

Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (KURDISTAN ONLY)

Page 18

79 79 63 61 60 47 43 38 15 7 15 17 27 26 28 28 48 56 80 89

  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100 Corruption Job opportunities Political instability Distribution of oil revenues Sectarianism Development of the oil industry Housing Security Electricity supply Water supply

Worse Better

∆ better

  • Oct. ’11

+12 +18 +4

  • 15

n/a

  • 6

n/a

  • 16

+5

  • 4
slide-20
SLIDE 20

May 2012

Yet majority still sees Kurdistan heading in right direction

85 72 74 78 65 9 21 22 15 30

20 40 60 80 100 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12

Right direction Wrong direction

Page 19

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (KURDISTAN ONLY)

slide-21
SLIDE 21

May 2012

Favorability of Kurdish parties improves | Kurdistan only

59 55 39 30 26 24 22 33 37 31

  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100

KDP PUK Goran KIU KOMAL % Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 20

Δ favorable Oct ’11 +10 +8 +18 +8 +13

slide-22
SLIDE 22

May 2012

Kurdish leaders remain popular in Kurdistan

66 65 64 41 16 18 21 31

  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100

Talabani Massoud Barzani Nechirvan Barzani Mustafa

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (KURDISTAN ONLY)

Page 21

Δ favorable Oct ’11 +17 +4 n/a +15

slide-23
SLIDE 23

May 2012

Kurdistan vote stable, with PUK drop | Kurdistan vote**

37 41 44 42 18 27 28 21 14 12 9 12 4 2 4 5 15 9 14 12

10 20 30 40 50 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12

KDP PUK Goran Movement KIU Und/DK/Ref

Page 22

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (KURDISTAN ONLY)

**Vote totals reflect updated population distribution data

slide-24
SLIDE 24

May 2012

Kurdistan divided by governorate

84 48 12 1 9 44 13 19

20 40 60 80 100

Dohuk Erbil Sulaymaniyah KDP PUK Goran

Page 23

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (KURDISTAN ONLY)

24% 35% 41%

Δ from Oct ’11 +4 -5 -- -9 -14 +12 +4 +5 +10

slide-25
SLIDE 25

May 2012

5 6 8 10 17 23 27 42 55

20 40 60 Sectarianism Political instability Education Infrastructure development High prices Corruption Security Basic services like electricity and water Jobs and unemployment

Jobs and services continue to be top concerns

Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

Page 24

∆ Oct. ’11

  • 4

+7

  • 7

+7 +1

  • 1
  • 2
slide-26
SLIDE 26

May 2012

9 54 6 58 19 10 71 62 47 19 29 47 28 31 31 51 20 40 60 80 Security Corruption Basic services Jobs and unemployment Baghdad West South K'stan

Jobs a concern across all regions, services in South

Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

Page 25

slide-27
SLIDE 27

May 2012

Perception of jobs and electricity remain extremely weak

Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (NON-KURDISTAN ONLY)

Page 26

89 77 76 68 70 65 62 44 50 42 42 10 16 18 19 21 25 31 37 44 47 56

  • 100 -80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100 Job opportunities Electricity supply Corruption Distribution of oil revenues Political instability Interfence of countries in Iraq's internal affairs Housing Development of the oil industry Water supply Sectarianism Security Worse Better

* Last asked in November 2010

∆ better

  • Oct. ’11

+19 +9

  • 8*

n/a

  • 8

+13

  • 1

n/a +6

  • 4

+1

slide-28
SLIDE 28

May 2012

25 24 6 23 80 69 64 92 68 15

20 40 60 80 100

Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Better Worse

Page 27

∆ Oct’11 -1 -- -22 +18 -- -1 +9 -11 +18 -18

Electricity supply varies by region; worst in South

Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (ELECTRICITY SUPPLY)

slide-29
SLIDE 29

May 2012

48 60 26 30 44 32 66 59

20 40 60 80 100

Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Right Wrong

Page 28

∆ Oct’11 +11 -6 +16 -12 +15 -9 -18 +24

Sunnis most pessimistic about country direction

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?

slide-30
SLIDE 30

May 2012

47 11 56 11 18 54 57 23 22 31 47 48 20 40 60 Corruption Basic services Jobs and unemployment Security Non-Kurd Sunni Shia Kurd

Security and jobs concerns dominate among Sunnis

Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

Page 29

∆ Sunni

  • Oct. ’11

+3

  • 13

+14

  • 17
slide-31
SLIDE 31

May 2012

Majority of Sunnis (and Kurds) see sectarianism worsening

27 36 36 36 47 52 71 58 28 36 56 61

20 40 60 80 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12

Shia worse Non-Kurd Sunni worse Kurd worse

Page 30

Please tell me if you think sectarianism is getting better or worse in Iraq. (WORSE ONLY)

slide-32
SLIDE 32

May 2012

A Sunni majority now see Iraq as a divided country

35 23 58 53 56 68 38 26

20 40 60 80

Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd

Page 31

Statement 1: Iraq is mostly a divided country. Statement 2: Iraq is mostly a unified country.

I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

∆ Mar’11 +12 -2 +6 +1 +29 -15 +10 --

slide-33
SLIDE 33

May 2012

Worries about Maliki power grab among Sunnis and Kurds

46 36 69 58 32 41 17 12 14 14 7 23

20 40 60 80

Total Shia non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Too much power Just the right amount Not enough

Page 32

Do you believe that al-Maliki has too much power, just the right amount, or not enough power?

∆ too much

  • Mar. ’11 +10 +5 +6 +43
slide-34
SLIDE 34

May 2012

Sunnis see Maliki as power-grabbing; lay blame

51 68 30 9 35 46 14 24 37 22 61 66 46 37 68 54

20 40 60 80 Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd

Page 33

Statement 1: As prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki's priority has been to maintain order and security. Statement 2: As prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki's priority has been to consolidate his power.

I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

Statement 1: Members of parliament are more to blame for the current political crisis. Statement 2: Prime Minister al- Maliki is more to blame for the current political crisis.

slide-35
SLIDE 35

May 2012

26 53 14 59 74 47 86 41

20 40 60 80 100

Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Shia Non-Kurd Sunni

Maliki Others/all/none/DK

Sunnis see Maliki interested in power, acting like dictator

Page 34

For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr? (NON-KURDSITAN ONLY)

More interested in preserving his

  • wn power than helping the

people Acting like a dictator

slide-36
SLIDE 36

May 2012

58 79 15 39 29 14 64 40 29 14 69 37 59 76 23 39

20 40 60 80 Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd

Approve Disapprove

Page 35

Hashemi case divisive; contributes to Sunni concern

For each one, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event. Kurdish leaders allowing Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi to stay in Kurdistan Filing charges against Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi

slide-37
SLIDE 37

May 2012

45 58 21 26 41 29 61 56

20 40 60 80

Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Better Worse

Page 36

Most Sunnis see judicial independence worsening

Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.

Independence of Iraq’s judges and courts

slide-38
SLIDE 38

May 2012

Sunnis skeptical about Iraq’s democratic credentials

45 59 12 32 45 33 75 49

20 40 60 80

Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd

Page 37

Statement 1: Iraq today is a real democracy. Statement 2: Iraq today is not a real democracy.

I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

∆ Oct ’11 +2 -1 +13 -10 -4 +6 -41 +28

slide-39
SLIDE 39

May 2012

Sunnis strongly feel Allawi does not have enough power

11 13 4 10 28 36 13 20 42 30 73 49

20 40 60 80

Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd Too much power Just the right amount Not enough

Page 38

Do you believe that Ayad Allawi has too much power, just the right amount, or not enough?

∆ not enough

  • Mar. ’11 +1 -9 +7 +32
slide-40
SLIDE 40

May 2012

Maliki’s favorability jumps among “Disaffected Shia”

62 55 43 37 18 15 1 1 18 32 41 45 54 74 88 89

  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100 Sadr Maliki Jaafari Hakim Nujaifi Allawi Hashemi Mutlaq

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (DISAFFECTED SHIA ONLY)

Page 39

Δ favorable Oct ’11 +1 +14 -17 +6 +9 -1 -32 -6

slide-41
SLIDE 41

May 2012

8 14 12 6 7 40 25 29 20 29 15 15 18 22 17 7 5 11 4 7 7 9 9 15 15

10 20 30 40

Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12

Iraqi National Accord Islamic Da'wa Party Sadr Trend ISCI Und/DK/Ref

Page 40

Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (DISAFFECTED SHIA ONLY)

U.S. Withdrawal

Maliki support jumps, Sadr drops among “disaffected Shia”

slide-42
SLIDE 42

May 2012

Maliki improves on key issues | “Disaffected Shia”

23 28 36 50 59 12 6 5 3 3 32 36 25 20 16 27 20 27 16 14 6 10 7 11 8

20 40 60 80 100

Cares about people like you Helping the poor Creating jobs Improving basic services Improving security

Maliki Hakim Sadr All/none/other/DK/ref Allawi

Page 41

For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr? (DISAFFECTED SHIA ONLY)

∆ Maliki Jul ’11

+23 +17 +15 +9 +5

∆ Sadr Jul ’11

  • 4

+4 +5 +13 +8

slide-43
SLIDE 43

May 2012

68 46 76 80 58 21 34 21 12 16

20 40 60 80

Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Approve Disapprove

Page 42

Openness to opposition group with alternative proposals

Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event.

A group of political parties declaring themselves as opposition within the Council of Representatives and proposing policy alternatives different from those set forth by the government

slide-44
SLIDE 44

May 2012

Opposition actions | looking for watchdogs, alternatives

55 57 57 61 62 63 63 63 63 69 81 82 86 85 87 85 85 86 88 89

20 40 60 80 100

Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable

Page 43

Imagine that certain members of the CoR made an announcement declaring that they are forming an opposition group within the Council of Representatives. For each action, please tell me how it would make you feel towards this group -- would it make you feel much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, just a little more favorable, or no more favorable?

Closely monitor the govt's actions and make public missteps, bad policies, or corrupt practices. Propose alternative policies for creating jobs, providing basic services, and fighting corruption. Hold a monthly question and answer session with government ministers to hold them accountable. To create more jobs, propose a 5-point economic plan that shows specific steps the gov’t needs to take. Weekly media briefings to discuss what the government did and what were its successes and failures. Conduct a listening tour to hear concerns and then present those concerns & solutions to the government. A series of public meetings to listen to people’s concerns and provide the gov’t with policy alternatives. Organize a group to monitor gov’t actions and make public missteps, bad policies, or corrupt practices. To end pol. divisions, propose a 5-point reconciliation plan that shows steps the gov’t needs to take. Hold a series of public debates between government opposition leaders so citizens hear opposing views.

slide-45
SLIDE 45

May 2012

66 53 79 71 41 20 27 15 17 29

20 40 60 80

Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan More likely Less likely

Page 44

Opposition actions would likely increase support

Assuming an opposition group did some of the things you just heard, would you be more likely

  • r less likely to vote for members of this group in the next election?
slide-46
SLIDE 46

May 2012

Significant shift in Kurdistan’s perception of Iraq’s direction

50 67 52 47 26 37 25 37 40 64

20 40 60 80 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12

Right direction Wrong direction

Page 45

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (KURDISTAN ONLY)

slide-47
SLIDE 47

May 2012

Kurdistan now has doubts about Iraqi democracy

45 44 69 20 30 45 48 26 65 52

20 40 60 80

Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan

Page 46

Statement 1: Iraq today is a real democracy.

Statement 2: Iraq today is not a real

democracy.

I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.

∆ Oct. ’11 +2 -1 +4 -1 +18 -13 -5 +2 -38 +27

slide-48
SLIDE 48

May 2012

Majority still see Kurdistan heading in right direction

85 72 74 78 65 9 21 22 15 30

20 40 60 80 100 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-12

Right direction Wrong direction

Page 47

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (KURDISTAN ONLY)

slide-49
SLIDE 49

May 2012

Kurdistan most supportive of more autonomous regions

27 11 17 39 58 67 82 82 59 19

20 40 60 80 100

Total Baghdad South West Kurdistan Approve Disapprove

Page 48

Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event.

Leaders from Anbar, Diyala, and Salahaddin asking for the establishment of an autonomous region for their governorate

slide-50
SLIDE 50

May 2012

6 9 54 58 71 19 10 62 29 47 19 47 31 28 31 51 20 40 60 80 Basic services Security Corruption Jobs and unemployment Baghdad West South Kurdistan

Jobs and corruption concerns dominate in Kurdistan

Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.

Page 49

slide-51
SLIDE 51

May 2012

Corruption and jobs continues to worsen in Kurdistan

Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (KURDISTAN ONLY)

Page 50

79 79 63 61 60 47 43 38 15 7 15 17 27 26 28 28 48 56 80 89

  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100 Corruption Job opportunities Political instability Distribution of oil revenues Sectarianism Development of the oil industry Housing Security Electricity supply Water supply

Worse Better

∆ better

  • Oct. ’11

+12 +18 +4

  • 15

n/a

  • 6

n/a

  • 16

+5

  • 4
slide-52
SLIDE 52

May 2012

36 38 31 33 26 34 35 33 40 39 43 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 3 1 21 19 23 30 52 32 26 38 29 32 25 12 9 23 11 4 14 18 12 7 6 12 30 31 22 24 16 19 20 17 24 20 19

20 40 60 80 100 Helping the poor Improving basic services Fights corruption Ending sectarianism Uniting Iraq Cares about people like you Bringing independence to Kurdistan Can bring political stability Creating jobs Improving security Making Kurdistan stronger

  • N. Barzani*

Maliki All/none/other/DK/ref Mustafa Salih

Barzani/KDP strong on jobs, weak on corruption

Page 51

For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Nechirvan Barzani*; Barham Salih; or Nawshirwan Mustafa? (KURDISTAN ONLY) * Before April 2012, asked Massoud Barzani; April 2012 onward, asked Nechirvan Barzani

PUK Kurdistan vote: 21% KDP Kurdistan vote: 42%

slide-53
SLIDE 53

May 2012

Kurdish leaders ratings improve | Kurdistan only

66 65 64 41 16 18 21 31

  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100

Talabani

  • M. Barzani
  • N. Barzani
  • N. Mustafa

% Favorable % Unfavorable

Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (KURDISTAN ONLY)

Page 52

Δ favorable Oct ’11 +17 +4 n/a +15

slide-54
SLIDE 54

May 2012

Favorability of Kurdish parties also improves | K’stan only

59 55 39 30 26 24 22 33 37 31

  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100

KDP PUK Goran KIU KOMAL % Favorable % Unfavorable

Page 53

Δ favorable Oct ’11 +10 +8 +18 +8 +13