[PPT] - July 2019 POLITICAL MONITOR 1 1 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

SLIDE 1 1 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1

July 2019 POLITICAL MONITOR

SLIDE 2 2 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 2

July 2019

VOTING INTENTIONS

SLIDE 3 3 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

Voting Intention: July 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26 – 30 July 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 759 Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +3

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +10

34% 24% 20% 9% 6% 8% CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEMS BREXIT PARTY GREEN OTHER 31% 28% 19% 8% 6% 9%

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM BREXIT PARTY GREEN OTHER

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HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

10 20 30 40 50 60 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Mar 19 May 19 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16)

CONSERVATIVE 34% LABOUR 24%

GENERAL ELECTION %

July ‘19 Johnson as PM (July 19) Jul 19

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10 20 30 40 50 60

Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Oct 18 Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) Johnson as PM (July 19)

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – July ‘19

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE 34% LABOUR 24% UKIP 1% GREEN 6% LIB DEM 20% GENERAL ELECTION %

July ‘19

THE BREXIT PARTY 9%

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AND HOW LIKELY WOULD YOU BE TO VOTE IN AN IMMEDIATE GENERAL ELECTION, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10, WHERE 10 MEANS YOU WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE, AND 1 MEANS THAT YOU WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN NOT TO VOTE?

Certainty to vote

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.200-400 party supporters each month

10/10 CERTAIN TO VOTE IN A GENERAL ELECTION Among Conservative Party supporters

70% 70% June 2019 July 2019

Among Labour Party supporters

61% 82% June 2019 July 2019

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July 2019

SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

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Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The Government Jo Swinson

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB. AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ LEADER OF THE BREXIT PARTY?.

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: July 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+ 26-30 July 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

69% 12% 19% 28% 44% 28%

DISSATISFIED DON’T KNOW SATISFIED

+4% SWING FROM JUNE 2019

1% SWING

FROM JUNE 2019 +10% SWING FROM JUNE 2019 NET=-50 NET= 0 NET=-57 NET=-7

38% 31% 31% 18% 7% 75 %

Nigel Farage

53% 15% 32%

NET=-21

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ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY BORIS JOHNSON IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Boris Johnson

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

July 2019 (Among all)

38% Dissatisfied 31% Don’t know 31% Satisfied

NET = -7

Satisfaction

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019

July 2019 (Conservative party supporters)

8% Dissatisfied 25% Don’t know 67% Satisfied

NET = +59

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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER NET SATISFACTION Johnson

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

JOHNSON

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Satisfaction with the Prime Minister

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note:. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

First Ipsos MORI ratings after becoming PM

37% 36% 54% 31% 22% 20% 19% 38%

Boris Johnson July 2019 Theresa May August 2016 Gordon Brown July 2007 John Major December 1990

% DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED

NET SATISFIED

7

+35 +16 +15

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?

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Net satisfaction with the Prime Minister (1979 – 2019)

Margaret Thatcher August 1979 NET SATISFACTION

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Tony Blair May 1997 John Major December 1990 Gordon Brown July 2007 David Cameron June 2010 Theresa May August 2016 Boris Johnson July 2019

+2 +15 +60 +16 +31 +35

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?

7

SLIDE 13 13 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data was collected within a month of each individual becoming part leader. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

23% 33% 37% 30% 34% 12% 15% 26% 31% 36% 41% 33% 54% 31% 21% 13% 22% 12% 16% 13% 15% 17% 17% 20% 22% 36% 19% 38%

Foot (Nov-80)

% DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED

NET SATISFIED

7

Satisfaction with party leaders First Ipsos MORI ratings

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/CONSERVATIVE PARTY?

Kinnock (Oct-83) Major (Dec-90) Smith (Jul-92) Blair (Aug-94) Hague (June-97) Duncan-Smith (Sep-01) Howard (Nov-03) Cameron (Jan-06) Brown (Jul-07) Miliband (Oct-10) Corbyn (Sep-15) May (Aug-16) Johnson (Jul-19) +35

3

+19 +16 +14 +9

1

+18 +18 +15 +20 +2

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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?

Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)

Boris Johnson’s Government NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT NET SATISFACTION

MAY’S GOV BLAIR’S GOV MAJOR’S GOV CAMERON’S GOV THATCHER’S GOV BROWN’S GOV

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

JOHNSON’S GOV

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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?

Satisfaction with the Government

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data was collected within a month of each Prime Minister taking office, apart from Margaret Thatcher who became PM in May 1979 but the first Ipsos MORI political monitor did not run until August 1979. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

First Ipsos MORI ratings

31% 36% 41% 18% 62% 53% 45% 75%

Johnson’s Gov. July 2019 May’s Gov. August 2016 Brown’s Gov. July 2007 Major’s Gov. December 1990

% DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED

NET SATISFIED

57
4
17
31

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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?

Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)

Thatcher’s Gov. August 1979 NET SATISFACTION

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Blair’s Gov. May 1997 Major’s Gov. December 1990 Brown’s Gov. July 2007 Cameron’s Gov. June 2010 May’s Gov. August 2016 Johnson’s Gov. July 2019

18
31

+37

17

+10

4
57

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Jeremy Corbyn

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

July 2019 September 2015 – July 2019

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19

.

SATISFIED 19% DISSATISFIED 69%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.

NET = -50

Satisfaction

69% Dissatisfied 12% Don’t know 19% Satisfied

%

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+ 26-30 July 2019

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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019)

Corbyn NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER NET SATISFACTION

CORBYN BLAIR SMITH KINNOCK MILLIBAND FOOT CAMERON DUNCAN-SMITH HAGUE HOWARD

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

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Jeremy Corbyn

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 197 Labour supporters 18+ 26-30 July 2019

July 2019 September 2015 – July 2019

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.

NET = +6

Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters

43% Dissatisfied 8% Don’t know 49% Satisfied SATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 43%

%

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July 2019

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

SLIDE 21 21 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.

Economic Optimism Index

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

July 2019

EOI = -40

58% 19% 18% 5%

GET WORSE STAY THE SAME

Don’t know

GET BETTER

Stay the same Get worse Improve

%

January 2007 – July 2019 July ‘19

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+ 26-30 July 2019

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DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.

Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

80
60
40
20

20 40 Jan 1998 Oct 1998 Jul 1999 Apr 2000 Jan 2001 Oct 2001 Jul 2002 Apr 2003 Jan 2004 Oct 2004 Jul 2005 Apr 2006 Jan 2007 Oct 2007 Jul 2008 Apr 2009 Jan 2010 Oct 2010 Jul 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2013 Oct 2013 Jul 2014 Apr 2015 Jan 2016 Oct 2016 Jul 2017 Apr 2018 Jan 2019

NET OPTIMISM=-40

Jul 2019

July ‘19

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July 2019

PARTY LEADERS

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?

Prime Minister material?

17% 19% 20% 38% 34% 66% 65% 43% Jo Swinson Nigel Farage Jeremy Corbyn Boris Johnson

AGREE DISAGREE AGREE NET

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5

SWING

+7

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019, Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree”

45
47
17

+0.5

4

SINCE JUNE ‘19 SINCE JUNE ‘19 SINCE JUNE ‘19

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?

Prime Minister material?

46% 60% 77% 11% 23% 10% Jo Swinson Jeremy Corbyn Boris Johnson

AGREE DISAGREE AGREE NET

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

+67

SWING

+18

Base: 323 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters, 181 Lib Dem supporters, 26-30 July 2019, Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree”

+37 +35 +3

SINCE JUNE ‘19 SINCE JUNE ‘19

Among own party supporters

SLIDE 26 26 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?

Prime Minister material?

BORIS JOHNSON -5%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

22%
20%
49%
55%
41% -39%
40%-39%
19%
5%

10% 5%

45%
36%
26%
12%
26%
17%

31% 67%

75
50
25

25 50 75

NET AGREE

Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Apr-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 May-19

Base: c.1,000 British adults, c.200-300 Conservative Party supporters each month

AMONG GENERAL PUBLIC

Boris Johnson (2014-2019)

BORIS JOHNSON +67% AMONG CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS

Jun-19 July ‘19 Jul-19

SLIDE 27 27 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?

Prime Minister material?

JEREMY CORBYN -45%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19%
45%
28%
30%
33%
46% -46%
7%

2% 46% 30% 28% 19% 31%

60
40
20

20 40 60

NET AGREE

Jul-18 Sep-18 Mar-19

Base: c.1,000 British adults, c.200-300 Labour Party supporters each month

AMONG GENERAL PUBLIC

Jeremy Corbyn (2015-2019)

JEREMY CORBYN +37% AMONG LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS

Jun-19 July ‘19 Apr-18 Jul-16 Jul-15 Jul-19

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WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVE’S … OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN?

Most capable Prime Minister

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019

57% 61% 56% 50% 47% 46% 46% 51% 52% 28% 23% 29% 35% 36% 38% 37% 33% 27%

Sept 2015 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 June 2017 July 2017 Sept 2018 June 2019 July 2019

Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn

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PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:

Changing party

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 197 Labour party supporters 26-30 July 2019

44% 49% 27% 42% 54% 66% 21% 43% 37% 55% 37% 62% 47% 30% 47% 31% 41% 25% 61% 43% 49% 27% 50% 23%

Labour supporters Among all Labour supporters Among all Labour supporters Among all Labour supporters Among all Labour supporters Among all Labour supporters Among all

AGREE DISAGREE

The Labour Party

June 2014

The Labour Party should change its leader before the next General Election

JEREMY CORBYN ED MILIBAND October 2015 July 2016 September 2017 July 2018 July 2019

leader

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PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:

Changing party

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019

9% 27% 25% 39% 28% 45% 34% 46% 10% 29% 79% 47% 55% 32% 61% 38% 51% 31% 83% 47%

Conservative supporters Among all Conservative supporters Among all Conservative supporters Among all Conservative supporters Among all Conservative supporters Among all

AGREE DISAGREE

The Conservative Party

June 2014

The Conservative Party should change its leader before the next General Election

BORIS JOHNSON DAVID CAMERON October 2015 September 2017 July 2018 July 2019

leader

THERESA MAY

SLIDE 31 31 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019

Changing Party leader

PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT:

The Labour/Conservative party should change its leader before the next General Election

27% 39% 45% 46% 29% 49% 42% 66% 43% 55% 62% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

% AGREE

Corbyn elected (September 2015) May as PM (July 2016) GE2017 (June 2017) Johnson as PM (July 2016)

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR

Jun-14 Oct-15 Jul-16 Sep-17 Jul-18 Jul-19

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July 2019

BREXIT

SLIDE 33 33 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT BORIS JOHNSON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?*

Confidence in Johnson getting a good Brexit deal for Britain

33% 41% 33% 64% 53% 64%

CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019

Among all

June 2019 Sep 2018

NET CONFIDENT

12

* Previously asked as ‘if Boris Johnson were PM, how confident if at all, would you be that they would get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with EU other European leaders?’

July 2019 57% 62% 60% 40% 33% 37%

Among Conservative supporters

June 2019 Sep 2018 July 2019

31
31

+23 +29 +7

SLIDE 34 34 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE CURRENT DEADLINE FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION IS OCTOBER 31ST THIS YEAR. HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY DO YOU THINK IT IS THAT….

Likelihood of the United Kingdom and European Union agreeing on a deal

18% 39% 23% 78% 61% 74%

VERY/FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY/VERY UNLIKELY

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 566 Non-Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019

NON-CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS AMONG ALL 57% 77% 59% 41% 21% 38% NON-CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS AMONG ALL

The UK and the EU will have agreed the terms of the UK’s departure from the European Union in time for the UK to leave by October 31st If the UK and the EU cannot reach an agreement, the UK will still leave the European Union by October 31st

SLIDE 35 35 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

IF THE UK AND THE EU CANNOT AGREE A DEAL ON THE TERMS OF THE UK’S DEPARTURE FROM THE EU BY OCTOBER 31ST, WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE…

What should happen if the UK and EU cannot agree a deal?

12% 67% 38% 74% 28% 50%

SUPPORT OPPOSE

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters, 26-30 July 2019

LABOUR SUPPORTERS CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS AMONG ALL

The UK leaving the European Union without a deal, sometimes referred to as a ‘no deal Brexit’

75% 34% 50% 15% 62% 37% LABOUR SUPPORTERS CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS AMONG ALL 87% 30% 56% 8% 55% 29% LABOUR SUPPORTERS CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS AMONG ALL

Delaying the UK leaving the EU until a deal is agreed Holding a General Election to elect a new Parliament

SLIDE 36 36 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

HOW WELL, IF AT ALL , WOULD YOU SAY THAT THE FOLLOWING PEOPLE KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE UK LEAVES THE EUROPEAN UNION WITHOUT A DEAL, SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS A ‘NO-DEAL BREXIT’?

How well do people know what will happen if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal?

VERY/FAIRLY WELL NOT/NOT AT ALL WELL

Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019

35% 40% 17% 40% 61% 57% 79% 54% You personally The British public as a whole The UK government UK politicians as a whole

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October 2018

Ipsos MORI

July 2019 Political Monitor

Gideon Skinner Research Director gideon.skinner@ipsos.com Keiran Pedley Research Director keiran.pedley@ipsos.com Glenn Gottfried Research Manager glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com For more information