July 2019 POLITICAL MONITOR 1 1 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
July 2019 VOTING INTENTIONS 2 2 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Voting Intention: July 2019 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE 34% CONSERVATIVE 31% LABOUR 24% LABOUR 28% LIB DEMS 20% LIB DEM 19% BREXIT PARTY 9% 8% BREXIT PARTY GREEN 6% GREEN 6% OTHER 9% OTHER 8% CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +3 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +10 Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26 – 30 July 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 759 Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 3 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) 60 % 50 40 July ‘19 CONSERVATIVE 34% 30 LABOUR 24% 20 10 0 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Mar 19 May 19 Jul 19 GENERAL ELECTION Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 4 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – July ‘19 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Brown as PM Miliband elected Cameron elected May as PM Corbyn elected Johnson as PM (June 07 ) (Sept 10) (Dec 05) (July 16) (Sept 15) (July 19) 60 % 50 40 July ‘19 CONSERVATIVE 34% 30 LABOUR 24% 20 LIB DEM 20% THE BREXIT PARTY 9% 10 GREEN 6% UKIP 1% 0 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Oct 18 Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 GENERAL ELECTION Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 5 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
10/10 CERTAIN TO VOTE IN A GENERAL ELECTION Certainty to vote Among Conservative Party supporters AND HOW LIKELY WOULD YOU BE TO VOTE IN AN IMMEDIATE GENERAL ELECTION, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10, WHERE 10 MEANS YOU July 2019 82% WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE, AND 1 MEANS THAT YOU WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN NOT TO VOTE? June 2019 61% Among Labour Party supporters July 2019 70% June 2019 70% Base: c.200-400 party supporters each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 6 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
July 2019 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS 7 7 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: July 2019 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB. AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ LEADER OF THE BREXIT PARTY?. Jeremy Corbyn Nigel Farage Boris Johnson The Government Jo Swinson DISSATISFIED 28% 38% 53% 75 69% % DON’T KNOW 44% 31% 15% 12% 7% 32% 31% 28% SATISFIED 19% 18% NET= 0 NET=-21 NET=-57 NET=-7 NET=-50 +4% SWING -1% SWING +10% SWING FROM JUNE 2019 FROM JUNE 2019 FROM JUNE 2019 Base: 1,007 British adults 18+ 26- 30 July 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 8 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Boris Johnson Satisfaction ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY BORIS JOHNSON IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. July 2019 (Among all) July 2019 (Conservative party supporters ) 8% Dissatisfied 38% Dissatisfied 25% Don’t know 31% Don’t know 67% Satisfied 31% Satisfied NET = +59 NET = -7 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019 9 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019) HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Johnson JOHNSON MAY NET SATISFACTION CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 10 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Satisfaction with the Prime Minister First Ipsos MORI ratings after becoming PM HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HI S/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? NET % SATISFIED % DISSATISFIED SATISFIED Boris Johnson -7 38% 31% July 2019 Theresa May +35 19% 54% August 2016 Gordon Brown +16 20% 36% July 2007 John Major 22% 37% +15 December 1990 Note: . Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 11 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Net satisfaction with the Prime Minister (1979 – 2019) HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HI S/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Theresa May Gordon Brown David Cameron Boris Johnson Margaret Thatcher John Major Tony Blair July 2007 June 2010 August 2016 July 2019 August 1979 December 1990 May 1997 +60 +35 +31 NET SATISFACTION +16 +15 +2 -7 Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 12 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Satisfaction with party leaders First Ipsos MORI ratings HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HI S/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/CONSERVATIVE PARTY? NET % SATISFIED % DISSATISFIED SATISFIED Johnson (Jul-19) -7 38% 31% May (Aug-16) +35 19% 54% Corbyn (Sep-15) -3 36% 33% Miliband (Oct-10) +19 22% 41% Brown (Jul-07) +16 20% 36% Cameron (Jan-06) +14 17% 31% Howard (Nov-03) +9 17% 26% Duncan-Smith (Sep-01) 0 15% 15% Hague (June-97) -1 13% 12% Blair (Aug-94) +18 16% 34% Smith (Jul-92) +18 12% 30% Major (Dec-90) +15 22% 37% Kinnock (Oct-83) +20 13% 33% Foot (Nov-80) +2 21% 23% Note: Data was collected within a month of each individual becoming part leader. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 13 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019) HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY? Boris Johnson’s Government JOHNSON’S GOV NET SATISFACTION MAY’S GOV CAMERON’S GOV BROWN’S GOV BLAIR’S GOV MAJOR’S GOV THATCHER’S GOV NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 14 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Satisfaction with the Government First Ipsos MORI ratings HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY? NET % SATISFIED % DISSATISFIED SATISFIED Johnson’s Gov. -57 75% 18% July 2019 May’s Gov. -4 45% 41% August 2016 Brown’s Gov. 53% 36% -17 July 2007 Major’s Gov. 62% 31% -31 December 1990 Note: Data was collected within a month of each Prime Minister taking office, apart from Margaret Thatcher who became PM in May 1979 but the first Ipsos MORI political monitor did not run until August 1979. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 15 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
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