December 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR 1 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

December 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR

December 2018

VOTING INTENTIONS

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

Voting Intention: December 2018

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -1

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +0

38% 38% 9% 4% 5% CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN 37% 38% 8% 5% 5%

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election

10 20 30 40 50 60 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18

Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16)

CONSERVATIVE 38% LABOUR 38%

GENERAL ELECTION

%

Dec ‘18

10 20 30 40 50 60

Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16)

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.

Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – December ‘18

Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07)

CONSERVATIVE 38%

LABOUR 38% UKIP 4% GREEN 5% LIB DEM 9% GENERAL ELECTION %

Dec ‘18

December 2018

SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The Government Vince Cable

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB. AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: December 2018

57% 8% 35% 59% 14% 27% 38% 38% 24% 69% 7% 24%

DISSATISFIED DON’T KNOW SATISFIED

+5% SWING FROM OCT 2018

• 0.5% SWING FROM OCT 2018

+2.5% SWING FROM OCT 2018 +1.5% SWING FROM OCT 2018 NET=-32 NET=-14 NET=-45 NET=-22

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?.

Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – December 2018

10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18

2016 EU Ref % satisfied

MAY 35% CORBYN 27%

CABLE 24%

GENERAL ELECTION

Dec ‘18

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2018)

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER NET SATISFACTION May

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2018)

Corbyn NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER NET SATISFACTION

CORBYN BLAIR SMITH KINNOCK MILLIBAND FOOT CAMERON DUNCAN-SMITH HAGUE HOWARD

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?

Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2018)

Theresa May’s Government NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT NET SATISFACTION

MAY’S GOV BLAIR’S GOV MAJOR’S GOV CAMERON’S GOV THATCHER’S GOV BROWN’S GOV

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Theresa May

December 2018 August 2016 – December 2018

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Dec-18

57% Dissatisfied 8% Don’t know 35% Satisfied

NET = -22

Satisfaction

DISSATISFIED 57% SATISFIED 35%

%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.

Theresa May

December 2018 August 2016 – December 2018

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Dec-18

31% Dissatisfied 3% Don’t know 66% Satisfied

NET = +35

DISSATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 66%

Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters

%

Jeremy Corbyn

December 2018 September 2015 – December 2018

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

SATISFIED 27% DISSATISFIED 59%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.

NET = -32

Satisfaction

59% Dissatisfied 14% Don’t know 27% Satisfied

%

Jeremy Corbyn

December 2018 September 2015 – December 2018

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.

NET = +9

Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters

40% Dissatisfied 11% Don’t know 49% Satisfied SATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 40%

%

Vince Cable

December 2018 September 2017 – December 2018

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Dec-18

DISSATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 24%

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.

NET = -14

38% Dissatisfied 38% Don’t know 24% Satisfied

Satisfaction

%

December 2018

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.

Economic Optimism Index

December 2018

EOI = -47

61% 19% 14% 6% GET WORSE STAY THE SAME

Don’t know

GET BETTER

Stay the same Get worse Improve

%

January 2007 - December 2018

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.

Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2018

• 80
• 60
• 40
• 20

20 40 Jan 1998 Oct 1998 Jul 1999 Apr 2000 Jan 2001 Oct 2001 Jul 2002 Apr 2003 Jan 2004 Oct 2004 Jul 2005 Apr 2006 Jan 2007 Oct 2007 Jul 2008 Apr 2009 Jan 2010 Oct 2010 Jul 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2013 Oct 2013 Jul 2014 Apr 2015 Jan 2016 Oct 2016 Jul 2017 Apr 2018

NET OPTIMISM=-47

December 2018

BREXIT

Britain’s economy over

26% 38% 26%

15% 9% 13%

49% 49% 55%

May 2016 July 2016 Dec 2018

39% 55% 45%

11% 11% 10%

35% 24% 34%

May 2016 July 2016 Dec 2018

the next five years

18% 21% 18%

46% 39% 37%

29% 36% 41%

May 2016 July 2016 Dec 2018

Britain’s economy over the next ten to twenty years Your own standard of living NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR XXX, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

People are more pessimistic about the short term impact of Brexit on the economy since the referendum

BETTER WORSE MAKES NO DIFFERENCE

NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

WORSE 41% BETTER 18% MAKE NO DIFFERENCE 37%

21% 18% 20% 18% 36% 49% 37% 36% 43% 39% 24% 40% 41% 32%

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

Impact of Brexit Own standards of living

Dec ‘18

Britain’s ability to make

59% 59% 55%

15% 16% 17%

20% 21% 24%

May 2016 July 2016 Dec 2018

47%

24%

22%

Dec 2018

decisions in its own best Britain’s control over immigration from the EU NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR XXX, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

However, the public still think Brexit will be better for sovereignty and immigration control

BETTER WORSE MAKES NO DIFFERENCE

interests Britain’s control over immigration from

• utside the EU

35%

39%

20%

Dec 2018

Confidence in May to get a good Brexit deal for Britain

NOT CONFIDENT 69% CONFIDENT 23% 44% 36% 35% 37% 34% 30% 25% 28% 19%

51% 60% 60% 59% 63% 67% 72% 70% 78%

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18

Dec ‘18

PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.

67% 73% 66% 67% 56% 47% 45% 34% 33% 26% 30% 32% 43% 51% 53% 64%

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18

PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.

Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain

NOT CONFIDENT 54% CONFIDENT 39%

Among Conservative supporters

Dec ‘18

25% 62% 4% 9% 29% 47% 6% 19%

AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT AND THE EUROPEAN UNION HAVE REACHED AN AGREEMENT ON THE TERMS OF BRITAIN’S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE A GOOD THING OR BAD THING FOR THE UK AS A WHOLE TO WITHDRAW FROM THE EU ON THESE TERMS?

Withdrawal GOOD THING BAD THING NEITHER DON’T KNOW Agreement Dec ‘18 Chequers Plan July ‘18

Public opinion on the Withdrawal Agreement

CHEQUERS: AND FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THERESA MAY’S PLAN FOR BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION (ALSO KNOWN AS THE CHEQUERS PLAN) WOULD BE A GOOD THING OR BAD THING FOR THE UK AS A WHOLE?

4% 39% 51% 6%

AND REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU VOTED IN THE EU REFERENDUM, DO YOU BELIEVE THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT REACHED BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND THE EUROPEAN UNION IS BETTER OR WORSE, OR ABOUT THE SAME AS YOU EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF THE REFERENDUM?

BETTER WORSE ABOUT THE SAME DON’T KNOW

Dec ‘18

Public opinion on the Withdrawal Agreement

Withdrawal Agreement

AS EXPECTED

PARLIAMENT IS EXPECTED TO VOTE ON THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT ON DECEMBER 11TH. IF PARLIAMENT DOES NOT VOTE IN FAVOUR OF THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO NEXT?

4% 1% 6% 10% 10% 11% 19% 20% 20%

HOLD A SECOND VOTE IN PARLIAMENT ON THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT ASK THE EU TO REOPEN NEGOTIATIONS TO SEEK A DIFFERENT DEAL CALL A GENERAL ELECTION CALL A REFERENDUM ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT CALL A REFERENDUM ON WHETHER OR NOT BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EU CALL-OFF BREXIT ALTOGETHER WITHOUT A REFERENDUM ALLOW BRITAIN TO LEAVE THE EU WITHOUT A DEAL NONE OF THE ABOVE DON’T KNOW

Withdrawal Agreement – what should happen next?

PARLIAMENT IS EXPECTED TO VOTE ON THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT ON DECEMBER 11TH. IF PARLIAMENT DOES NOT VOTE IN FAVOUR OF THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO NEXT?

HOLD A SECOND VOTE IN PARLIAMENT ON THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT ASK THE EU TO REOPEN NEGOTIATIONS TO SEEK A DIFFERENT DEAL CALL A GENERAL ELECTION CALL A REFERENDUM ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT CALL A REFERENDUM ON WHETHER OR NOT BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EU CALL-OFF BREXIT ALTOGETHER WITHOUT A REFERENDUM ALLOW BRITAIN TO LEAVE THE EU WITHOUT A DEAL NONE OF THE ABOVE DON’T KNOW

Withdrawal Agreement – what should happen next?

5% * 11% 15% 25% 9% 17% 14% 4% 4% 1% 27% 6% 17% 11% 3% 26% 6%

CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS

43% 50% 7%

AND IF PARLIAMENT DOES NOT VOTE IN FAVOUR OF THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT, DO YOU THINK THAT THERESA MAY SHOULD RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER OR SHOULD SHE CONTINUE BEING THE PRIME MINISTER?

RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER DON’T KNOW

If the Withdrawal Agreement is not passed, what should Theresa May do?

SHOULD STEP DOWN EVEN IF PARLIAMENT VOTES IN FAVOUR OF THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT 1% CONTINUE AS PRIME MINISTER

1% 5% 7% 10% 14% 19% 27% 31% 35% 35%

AND IF BRITAIN AND OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS FAIL TO REACH AN AGREEMENT ON THE NEW TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU BY THE TIME BRITAIN LEAVES, WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE MOST TO BLAME? %

+1 +1 p +3 +2 p

• 6
• 1 q
• 10
• 2 q

+3

• +2
• CHANGE SINCE OCT:

Position

EUROPEAN UNION CONSERVATIVE MPS THE UK GOVERNMENT BREXIT CAMPAIGNERS THE LABOUR PARTY REMAIN CAMPAIGNERS OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES OTHER NO-ONE DON’T KNOW

Attributing blame in the case of a no deal Brexit

33% 25% 14% 28%

AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE ARE PLANS TO HOLD A TELEVISED DEBATE ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 9TH BETWEEN THERESA MAY AND JEREMY CORBYN ON THEIR VIEWS OF BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH EUROPE AFTER BRITAIN LEAVES THE

• EU. HOW INTERESTED, IF AT ALL,

ARE YOU IN WATCHING THIS DEBATE?

VERY INTERESTED FAIRLY INTERESTED DON’T KNOW 0%

Brexit television debates

NOT VERY INTERESTED NOT AT ALL INTERESTED

Level of interest

15% 20% 20% 43%

HOW IMPORTANT, IF AT ALL, DO YOU THINK THE DEBATE WILL BE IN HELPING YOU MAKE UP YOUR MIND ABOUT BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU?

VERY IMPORTANT FAIRLY IMPORTANT DON’T KNOW 2%

Brexit television debates

NOT VERY IMPORTANT NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT

Importance in changing minds

40% 36% 14% 9%

AND WHO DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE MOST CONVINCING IN THE DEBATE, THERESA MAY OR JEREMY CORBYN?

THERESA MAY JEREMY CORBYN DON’T KNOW

Brexit television debates

OTHER 1% NEITHER

Who will win?

October 2018

Ipsos MORI

December 2018 Political Monitor

Gideon Skinner Research Director gideon.skinner@ipsos.com Glenn Gottfried Research Manager glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com For more information