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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
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October 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR 1 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
October 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR 1 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
October 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR 1 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public October 2018 VOTING INTENTIONS 2 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Voting Intention: October 2018 HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
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HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Voting Intention: October 2018
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1044 British adults 18+, 19th– 22nd October 2018; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 777 Margin
- f error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there
is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION
HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +2
39% 37% 10% 5% 5% CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN 39% 38% 9% 5% 4%
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
10 20 30 40 50 60 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18
Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16)
CONSERVATIVE 39% LABOUR 37%
GENERAL ELECTION
%
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10 20 30 40 50 60
Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Oct 18
Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – October ‘18
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07)
CONSERVATIVE 39%
LABOUR 37% UKIP 5% GREEN 5% LIB DEM 10% GENERAL ELECTION %
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October 2018
SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
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Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The Government Vince Cable
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB. AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: October 2018
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1044 British adults 18+ 19th - 22nd October 2018. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
61% 10% 29% 59% 14% 28% 38% 42% 19% 70% 8% 22%
DISSATISFIED DON’T KNOW SATISFIED
+0.5% SWING FROM SEPT 2018 +5.5% SWING FROM SEPT 2018
- 2% SWING FROM SEPT 2018
+2% SWING FROM SEPT 2018 NET=-31 NET=-19 NET=-48 NET=-32
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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?.
Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – October 2018
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month.
10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18
2016 EU Ref % satisfied
MAY 29% CORBYN 28%
CABLE 19%
GENERAL ELECTION
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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2018)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER NET SATISFACTION May
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2018)
Corbyn NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER NET SATISFACTION
CORBYN BLAIR SMITH KINNOCK MILLIBAND FOOT CAMERON DUNCAN-SMITH HAGUE HOWARD
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2018)
Theresa May’s Government NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT NET SATISFACTION
MAY’S GOV BLAIR’S GOV MAJOR’S GOV CAMERON’S GOV THATCHER’S GOV BROWN’S GOV
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
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ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Theresa May
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2018 August 2016 – October 2018
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
.
61% Dissatisfied 10% Don’t know 29% Satisfied
NET = -32
Satisfaction
DISSATISFIED 61% SATISFIED 29%
%
Base: 1044 British adults 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
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ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Theresa May
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 351 Conservative supporters 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
October 2018 August 2016 – October 2018
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
.
37% Dissatisfied 5% Don’t know 57% Satisfied
NET = +20
DISSATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 57%
Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
%
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Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2018 September 2015 – October 2018
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Sep-18
.
SATISFIED 28% DISSATISFIED 59%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = -31
Satisfaction
59% Dissatisfied 14% Don’t know 28% Satisfied
%
Base: 1044 British adults 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
Oct-18
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 324 Labour supporters 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
October 2018 September 2015 – October 2018
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Sep-18
.
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = +27
Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters
32% Dissatisfied 8% Don’t know 59% Satisfied SATISFIED 59% DISSATISFIED 32%
%
Oct-18
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Vince Cable
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2018 September 2017 – October 2018
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
.
DISSATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 19%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.
NET = -19
38% Dissatisfied 42% Don’t know 19% Satisfied
Satisfaction
%
Base: 1044 British adults 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
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October 2018
ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2018
EOI = -47
61% 21% 14% 5% GET WORSE STAY THE SAME
Don’t know
GET BETTER
Stay the same Get worse Improve
%
Base: 1044 British adults 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
January 2007 - October 2018
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DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2018
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
- 80
- 60
- 40
- 20
20 40 Jan 1998 Oct 1998 Jul 1999 Apr 2000 Jan 2001 Oct 2001 Jul 2002 Apr 2003 Jan 2004 Oct 2004 Jul 2005 Apr 2006 Jan 2007 Oct 2007 Jul 2008 Apr 2009 Jan 2010 Oct 2010 Jul 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2013 Oct 2013 Jul 2014 Apr 2015 Jan 2016 Oct 2016 Jul 2017 Apr 2018
NET OPTIMISM=-47
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Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
Budget (use different pic)
October 2018
BUDGET
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Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
Impact of Government’s policies
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
DON’T KNOW NET = -21
26% 66% 8%
Economy Public Services
NET = -40
35% 56% 9%
Base: 1044 British adults 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
ON BALANCE DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN’S …. ECONOMY/PUBLIC SERVICES?
AGREE
Economy and Public Services
DISAGREE AGREE DISAGREE DON’T KNOW
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Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jul-80 May-81 Nov-81 Mar-82 Apr-83 May-83 Jun-83 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 May-87 Jun-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Dec-94 Nov-95 Dec-95 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jun-97 Jul-97 Nov-97 Feb-98 Mar-98 Nov-98 Feb-99 Mar-99 Nov-99 Feb-00 Mar-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 May-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 May-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 May-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jun-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Mar-12 March-15 Nov-15 March-16 Mar-17 Nov-17 Oct-18
ON BALANCE DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN’S ECONOMY?
Impact of Government’s policies on the state of Britain's economy
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
% AGREE
THATCHER’S GOVERNMENT MAJORS’S GOVERNMENT BLAIRS’S GOVERNMENT BROWN’S CAMERON’S GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT MAY’S GOVERNMENT
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Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ON BALANCE DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN’S PUBLIC SERVICES
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Impact of Government’s policies on the state of Britain’s public services
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
% AGREE
BLAIRS’S GOVERNMENT BROWN’S GOVERNMENT CAMERON’S GOVERNMENT MAY’S GOVERNMENT
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Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Phillip Hammond
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
36% 45% 19%
DISSATISFIED SATISFIED DON’T KNOW NET = -9
30% 43% 27%
November 2018 October 2017
DON’T KNOW DISSATISFIED SATISFIED NET = -13
Satisfaction
Base: 1044 British adults 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
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Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Chancellor of the Exchequer
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
March 1976 – October 2018
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Mar-76 Mar-77 Apr-78 Jul-80 Mar-82 Jun-83 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Dec-94 Nov-95 Dec-95 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jul-97 Feb-98 Mar-98 Mar-99 Feb-00 Mar-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Mar-04 Nov-05 Feb-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Mar-08 Mar-10 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Nov-17 Oct-18
HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND
% SATISFIED
Satisfaction
%
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I’D LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT HOW MUCH THE GOVERNMENT SPENDS ON PUBLIC SERVICES, WHICH IS FUNDED BY TAXATION OR GOVERNMENT BORROWING. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO? AND WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT WILL DO?
Government spending: increase, maintain or reduce?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
7% 33% 36% 24% 6% 8% 20% 66%
.
GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO
INCREASE SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES GOVERNMENT SPENDING EVEN IF THAT MEANS HIGHER TAXES OR MORE KEEP SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES AT THE CURRENT LEVEL REDUCE SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES, TO ALLOW FOR TAX CUTS OR LESS GOVERNMENT BORROWING DON’T KNOW
GOVERNMENT WILL DO
Base: 1044 British adults 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
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I’D LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT HOW MUCH THE GOVERNMENT SPENDS ON PUBLIC SERVICES, WHICH IS FUNDED BY TAXATION OR GOVERNMENT BORROWING. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO? AND WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT WILL DO?
Government spending: increase, maintain or reduce?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
3% 45% 27% 24% 3% 4% 16% 77% 6% 19% 50% 26% 5% 10% 26% 59%
.
INCREASE SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES MORE GOVERNMENT SPENDING EVEN IF THAT MEANS HIGHER TAXES OR KEEP SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES AT THE CURRENT LEVEL REDUCE SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES, TO ALLOW FOR TAX CUTS OR LESS GOVERNMENT BORROWING DON’T KNOW
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR CONSERVATIVE LABOUR CONSERVATIVE LABOUR CONSERVATIVE LABOUR GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO GOVERNMENT WILL DO SHOULD DO
Party support
WILL DO
Base: 351 Conservative party supporters, 324 Labour party supporters, 19th – 22nd October 2018
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Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE EACH OR THE FOLLOWING POLICIES?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1044 British adults 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
54% 46% 33% 16% 26% 36% 58% 71%
SUPPORT OPPOSE
Public support for potential economic policies
CHARGE 20% VAT ON FEES FOR ATTENDING PRIVATE SCHOOL CUT TAX RELIEF ON PENSIONS SAVINGS BY CHARGING 20% ON MONEY SAVED INTO PENSIONS WHICH IS CURRENT TAX FREE FOR MOST PEOPLE CANCEL PLANS TO INCREASE THE TAX THRESHOLD FOR HIGHER EARNERS, WHICH WOULD MEAN PEOPLE EARNING BETWEEN £43K-£50K A YEAR WOULD NOT GET A PLANNED TAX CUT END FREE TV LICENCES FOR OVER 75s
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October 2018
BREXIT
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NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Brexit’s impact on living standards
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+
%
WORSE 43% BETTER 18% MAKE NO DIFFERENCE 32%
21% 18% 20% 36% 49% 37% 36% 39% 24% 40% 41%
10 20 30 40 50 60
Jul-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 Oct-17 Oct-18
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PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.
Confidence in May to get a good Brexit deal for Britain
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+
NOT CONFIDENT 78% CONFIDENT 19%
%
44% 36% 35% 37% 34% 30% 25% 28%
51% 60% 60% 59% 63% 67% 72% 70%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Mar-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
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67% 66% 67% 56% 47% 45% 33% 30% 32% 43% 51% 53%
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.
Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain (amongst Conservative supporters)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month
NOT CONFIDENT 64% CONFIDENT 34%
%
Oct-17 Mar-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Oct-18
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Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
4% 43% 49% 4% 4% 24% 37% 33%
REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU VOTED IN EU REFERENDUM, DO YOU BELIEVE THAT BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION IS WORKING OUT BETTER OR WORSE, OR ABOUT THE SAME AS YOU EXPECTED?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
May 2018
Public perceptions
- f the Brexit
process
October 2018 BETTER ABOUT THE SAME AS EXPECTED WORSE DON’T KNOW
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AND IF BRITAIN AND OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS FAIL TO REACH AN AGREEMENT ON THE NEW TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU BY THE TIME BRITAIN LEAVES, WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE MOST TO BLAME?
Attributing blame
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
7% 1% 3% 10% 14% 16% 32% 36% 37% 37%
.
The UK Government The European Union Conservative MPs The Labour Party Other opposition parties Brexit campaigners Remain campaigners No-one Other Don’t know
in the case of a no deal Brexit
Base: 1044 British adults 18+ 19th – 22nd October 2018
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Attributing blame
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 351 Conservative party supporters, 324 Labour party supporters, 19th – 22nd October 2018
5% 4% * 11% 48% 11% 9% 50% 21% 43% 3% 3% 1% 22% 22% 14% 23% 23% 58% 26%
.
The UK Government The European Union Conservative MPs The Labour Party Other opposition parties Brexit campaigners Remain campaigners No-one Other Don’t know
in the case of a no deal Brexit
CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS
AND IF BRITAIN AND OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS FAIL TO REACH AN AGREEMENT ON THE NEW TERMS OF BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU BY THE TIME BRITAIN LEAVES, WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE MOST TO BLAME?