November 2011 November 2011 Iraq Enters a Critical Period Graphs for the Report on the October 2011 Survey
November 2011 The Research National Survey – September 22 – October 5, 2011 – 2,000 national face-to-face interviews (1,436 unweighted) – 500 interviews in each of the following regions: Baghdad, South, West, and North – weighted representatively – Margin of error +/- 2.6 percent on full sample, +/- 4.4 percent on North sample Focus Groups – July 22-25, 2011 – 2 each in Anbar, Baghdad, Basra, Erbil, and Sulaymaniyah. Page 1
November 2011 Jobs continue to dominate as a top concern Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address. ∆ Jul ’11 59 Jobs and unemployment -1 35 -6 Basic services like electricity and water 30 Corruption +3 -5 27 Security 10 -- High prices 9 Infrastructure development -- +3 9 Education +5 8 Political instability -2 5 Sectarianism 0 20 40 60 Page 2
November 2011 Job situation, corruption, electricity esp. seen as worsening Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. ∆ Better Worse Better Jul ’11 Sectarianism 46 38 -1 Security 56 39 -3 Political instability +6 62 24 Electricity supply 69 26 +3 Corruption 82 13 +2 -6 Job opportunities 85 10 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Page 3
November 2011 Economic strength by region Now I want to ask you about the economy. Would you say Iraq’s economy right now is strong or weak? Strong Weak 80 77 60 53 50 49 40 39 35 34 33 32 20 4 0 Total Baghdad South West North Page 4
November 2011 Right direction hits lowest point in a year Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction 60 50 50 49 45 44 40 42 41 37 20 0 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Page 5
November 2011 Country direction | region Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction ∆ Right Jul ’11 -4 +3 -7 -6 -5 80 68 60 52 50 49 47 40 42 40 37 30 20 16 0 Total Baghdad South West North Page 6
November 2011 Job concerns dominant across regions, with some variation Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address. Baghdad West South North 51 59 Jobs and unemployment 61 66 22 16 Basic services 70 7 31 44 Corruption 12 46 22 40 Security 27 8 0 20 40 60 80 Page 7
November 2011 Electricity perceptions better in Baghdad, worse elsewhere Please tell me if you think ELECTRICITY SUPPLY is getting better or worse in Iraq. ∆ Better Worse Better Jul ’11 +3 Total 69 26 +42 Baghdad 46 46 South 93 6 -5 -10 West 79 14 North 33 62 -23 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Page 8
November 2011 Favorability of national leaders continues to fall Now , I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with ―100‖ meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; ―0‖ meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and ―50‖ meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. % Favorable % Unfavorable Δ Favorable Jul ’11 +1 -3 -8 -9 -6 -9 -2 -7 +1 -6 100 80 60 40 36 13 11 20 31 29 23 21 17 16 14 0 -20 42 49 49 51 51 51 -40 59 60 62 63 -60 -80 -100 Sadr Maliki Allawi Jaafari Hakim Nujaifi Mutlaq Hashemi Barzani Talabani Page 9
November 2011 Allawi favorability drops especially among base % Favorable % Unfavorable Δ favorable Jul ’11 -8 -10 -6 - 8 -8 -5 -16 -10 -11 100 80 75 60 68 40 51 20 31 29 5 4 22 20 0 15 24 35 -20 51 52 57 59 60 62 -40 -60 -80 -100 Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-Kurd Kurd INA Sunni identifiers Page 10
November 2011 Allawi job approval also drops Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Ayad Allawi is doing as a prominent politician in Iraq? Approve Disapprove 50 47 47 50 46 46 43 40 42 38 30 ―He does not do anything to serve the people. He only struggles with Maliki and has verbal 20 fights with him.‖— Shia Woman, Basra 10 0 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Page 11
November 2011 Nujaifi job approval remains weak after strong start Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Osama al-Nujaifi is doing as Speaker of the Council of Representatives? Approve Disapprove 60 51 50 48 40 38 33 33 20 0 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Page 12
November 2011 Nujaifi favorability continues to fall Now , I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with ―100‖ meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; ―0‖ meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and ―50‖ meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. % Favorable % Unfavorable 60 51 47 39 40 39 26 20 17 0 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Page 13
November 2011 Maliki favorability slightly declines Now , I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with ―100‖ meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; ―0‖ meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and ―50‖ meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. % Favorable % Unfavorable 60 51 49 47 45 40 41 35 34 31 20 0 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Page 14
November 2011 Maliki job approval dips Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-Maliki is doing as prime minister? Approve Disapprove 58 60 54 54 53 40 40 39 39 34 20 0 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Page 15
November 2011 Maliki favorable rating down in the South % Favorable % Unfavorable 100 Δ favorable 80 Jul ’11 -3 -2 -10 +3 -3 -5 -3 -- 60 40 46 45 41 31 20 8 4 2 17 0 -20 31 32 40 49 -40 67 68 -60 70 86 -80 -100 Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-Kurd Kurd Sunni Page 16
November 2011 Maliki favorability among Da’wa partisans Now , I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with ―100‖ meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; ―0‖ meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and ―50‖ meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. % Favorable % Unfavorable 95 93 100 87 86 80 60 40 20 8 3 4 2 0 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Among those who ID with Da’wa Page 17
November 2011 Government not seen as responsive to people’s needs Now I will read you a list of issues. Please tell me if you think the issue is getting better or worse in Iraq: The central government’s responsiveness to the people’s needs . Better Worse 80 74 71 67 60 59 57 40 30 20 23 19 17 11 0 Total Baghdad South West North Page 18
November 2011 Most CoR members unaware and unresponsiveness to needs Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each one, I want you to tell me which choice comes closer to your point of view. Statement 1: Members of the CoR Statement 1: In general, members of from my governorate know a lot the CoR from my governorate are about local conditions in my mostly responsive to the needs of neighborhood. my neighborhood. Statement 2: Members of the CoR Statement 2: In generally, members from my governorate are mostly of the CoR from my governorate are unaware of the local conditions in mostly unresponsive to the needs 80 my neighborhood. of my neighborhood. 60 64 55 40 31 20 21 0 Page 19
November 2011 INA favorability drops especially among base % Favorable % Unfavorable Δ favorable Jul ’11 -10 -16 -10 -9 -3 -10 -19 -3 100 80 60 62 40 46 20 3 25 0 23 12 15 0 24 -20 32 50 -40 55 56 56 57 62 -60 -80 -100 Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-Kurd Kurd Sunni Page 20
November 2011 National parliamentary vote Now let me ask you about the next parliamentary elections. Imagine those elections are today. I am going to give you a ballot with a list of political parties, and I will read the choices to you. Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. Once you make your mark, place your ballot in the box/bag, because this is a secret ballot. 20 Δ July ’11 -2 -7 -- -1 -- +1 -1 -- -3 +9 +5 15 16 16 14 13 10 10 6 6 5 5 5 5 2 0 Islamic Iraqi Nat'l Sadr Trend ISCI PUK Iraqi Front KDP Nat'l Others (No vote) (Und/ref) Da'wa Party Accord for Nat'l Reform Dialogue Trend Page 21
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