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In 10 Years
- 2 out of every 5 NZers will live in Auckland
- Asian communities will outnumber Māori
- There will be more people aged over 65 than 0-15
A FUTURE AOTEAROA: WHAT WILL WE LOOK LIKE IN 20 YEARS Distinguished - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A FUTURE AOTEAROA: WHAT WILL WE LOOK LIKE IN 20 YEARS Distinguished - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
A FUTURE AOTEAROA: WHAT WILL WE LOOK LIKE IN 20 YEARS Distinguished Professor Paul Spoonley Pro Vice-Chancellor, College of Humanities and Social Sciences Adult and Community Education Conference Wellington 13 June 2017 In 10 Years 2 out of
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In 20 Years
- More New Zealanders will live in Auckland
- Two-thirds of New Zealand’s regions will be
smaller and older
- New Zealand will be even more ethnically diverse
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Factors That Will Change Aotearoa – and Education
- Work will be disrupted
- Divergent regional growth/decline – and futures
- Diversity – and immigration
- Generational differences
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Work After the Digital Revolution
Disruptive technologies CEDA = 40% of all 2015 jobs will have gone over the next two decades
(60% in rural areas) and new jobs
Divergence in employment:
High skilled and low skilled Mid-level jobs seriously impacted Gig economy and precarious employment
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Ø Turangawaewae: Identity & Belonging in Aotearoa NZ Ø Tu Kupu: Writing and Inquiry Ø Tu Arohae: Critical Thinking
Ø Tu Rangaranga: Global Encounters Ø Tu Tira Mai: Practising Engagement
BA: New Compulsory Core
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EMPLOYABILITY AND FLEXIBILITY
- Good communication and technology skills
- Cultural intelligence
- People-to-people skills
- Team player
- Independent problem solver
BA: Transferable Skills
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Regional Population Stagnation – and Decline
- Deaths will outnumber births in 60% of NZs TAs in 2
decades
- 47 (out of 67) TAs will have fewer children than in 2013
- 75% of population in North Island and Auckland will
see 60% of all population growth
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Regional Profiles: Examples
Northland Southland New Zealand Demography Fer$lity rate (per 1000) <15 yrs >65 yrs Net immigra$on 96 21.9% 19.8% 33 84 20.5% 16.4% 362 79 20.2% 15.5% 38,338 Ethnicity Maori Asian 32.4% 2.8% 13% 3.2% 15% 11.8% Socio-Economic Jobless Benefit depending NEET (15-19 yr olds) 13.4% 14.0% 12.9% 7.5% 7.8% 11.6% 8.8% 7.8% 8.1% Offending Apprehension (17-20 yr olds per 1000) Illicit drug offences (per 10,000) 168 90.7 178 34.7 122 53
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Immigration - 2016
- Permanent and long term migrants: 128,300
- Net gain:
71,300
- Auckland:
57,000 immigrants North Island: 87,000 immigrants South Island: 21,300 immigrants
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All 0-14 Yrs European/Pākehā 75% - 66% 71.6% - 68.2% Māori 16% - 18% 25% - 30% Asian 12% - 22% 12% - 21% Pasifika 8% - 10% 13% - 18%
A Future Aotearoa – Hyper-diversity (2013-2038)
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Why Immigrants Are Needed
- Population stagnation (now)
- ⅔ of NZ’s regions stagnation
- Sub-replacement fertility (2020s)
- Structural ageing (more 65+ than
0-14 years of age, 2020s)
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Net Worth
European/Pākehā $114,000 Asian $32,000 Māori $23,000 Pasifika $12,000
- Younger age profiles
- Communal or iwi assets not considered
- Regional loca$on
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Generational Differences
65+
- Home ownership
- Careers/employment
stability
- State pays
- Redundancy/redundant
0-15
- Housing affordability/
availability?
- Precarious work in a gig
economy
- NEET
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Concluding Comments…
- How do we respond to the size and nature of a
primate city vs regional stagnation
- How inclusive and responsive are we to diversity?
- How do we balance out funding for older vs younger
New Zealanders?
- How do we prepare New Zealanders for the different