76 Million Boomers 83 Million Millennials 19 to 35 91 Million - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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76 Million Boomers 83 Million Millennials 19 to 35 91 Million - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 07, 2024 248 likes •768 views

76 Million Boomers 83 Million Millennials 19 to 35 91 Million Millennials 16 to 35 500 Millennial Poll Results 75 Percent Could Live Without the Call Function on Their Device 500 Millennial Poll Results 76 Percent Prefer Texting To Talking

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76 Million Boomers 83 Million Millennials 19 to 35 91 Million Millennials 16 to 35

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500 Millennial Poll Results

75 Percent Could Live Without the Call Function

  • n Their Device
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500 Millennial Poll Results

76 Percent Prefer Texting To Talking as it Fits Better in Their Schedule

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500 Millennial Poll Results

63 Percent State Texting Is Less Disruptive Than Talking

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500 Millennial Poll Results

19 Percent Admitted to Never Checking Voice Mails

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SLIDE 8

Twitter witter @DrT DrTCJ CJ

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SLIDE 9

Non-Renewals - Dead on Arrival

  • Mortgage Insurance Deductibility
  • Residential Mortgage Debt Forgiveness
  • Residential Energy Savings
  • Renewables – Wind and Solar
  • ObamaCare - Some Form, However
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SLIDE 10

Soon-to-Happen Tax Changes?????

  • Corporate Tax Cut 35 Percent to 15 Percent
  • US Overseas Corporate Profit Repatriation
  • Carried Interest Elimination
  • ObamaCare 3.8% Investment Income Tax Cut
  • Capital Gains Tax Cut
  • Middle Class Tax Changes – Some Up, Some Down
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SLIDE 11

Germany 42.2% 35.0% U.S. France 37.8% 34.4% France Italy 37.0% 30.0% Australia U.S. 35.0% 27.5% Italy Spain 25.0% 25.0% Spain Australia 34.0% 23.3% Japan Japan 30.0% 22.0% S Korea U.K 30.0% 20.0% U.K. Canada 29.1% 15.8% Germany S Korea 28.0% 15.0% Canada

OECD Corporate Tax Rates

2000 2016

Germany 2,640 Basis Point Decline 62.6 Percent Tax Cut

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SLIDE 12

Germany 42.2% 35.0% U.S. France 37.8% 34.4% France Italy 37.0% 30.0% Australia U.S. 35.0% 27.5% Italy Spain 25.0% 25.0% Spain Australia 34.0% 23.3% Japan Japan 30.0% 22.0% S Korea U.K 30.0% 20.0% U.K. Canada 29.1% 15.8% Germany S Korea 28.0% 15.0% Canada

OECD Corporate Tax Rates

2000 2016

Canada 1,410 Basis Point Decline 48.4 Percent Tax Cut

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Germany 42.2% 35.0% U.S. France 37.8% 34.4% France Italy 37.0% 30.0% Australia U.S. 35.0% 27.5% Italy Spain 25.0% 25.0% Spain Australia 34.0% 23.3% Japan Japan 30.0% 22.0% S Korea U.K 30.0% 20.0% U.K. Canada 29.1% 15.8% Germany S Korea 28.0% 15.0% Canada

OECD Corporate Tax Rates

2000 2016

U.K. 1,010 Basis Point Decline 33.3 Percent Tax Cut

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Mega Themes - 2017

  • More Jobs Than Ever in History
  • Retail Boom – 14 Years to Run
  • Entry Level Homebuyers Returning
  • High-End Housing Retreating
  • Inflation Potential -- UPS +4.9% Dec 26th
  • Commercial Sales Cooling
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76 Million Boomers 83 Million Millennials 19 to 35 91 Million Millennials 16 to 35

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2016 US Stock Market Performance 13%+ Dow Jones Industrial 9.5% S&P500 7.5% Nasdaq Composite 8.5% Gold 14.9% Silver 45.2% Crude Oil

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SLIDE 17 128 130 132 134 136 138 140 142 144 146 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

U.S. Jobs

Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted

1.64% Prior 12 Months 2.343 Million Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months
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SLIDE 18

U.S. Net Job Gains – Trailing 12-Months

1 2 3 4 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Jobs - Millions

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SLIDE 19

U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Jobs

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0

Recession Millions of Jobs Seasonally-Adjusted

+2.25% Past 12 Months
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SLIDE 20 Washington 3.46% South Carolina 1.98% Montana 0.78% Oregon 3.34% Delaware 1.88% New Jersey 0.75% Florida 3.10% Missouri 1.83% Pennsylvania 0.66% Utah 3.01% Dist of Columbia 1.80% Vermont 0.57% South Dakota 2.52% Texas 1.74% Illinois 0.49% Colorado 2.50% Virginia 1.73% Nebraska 0.39% Tennessee 2.42% Rhode Island 1.36% Connecticut 0.19% California 2.40% Maryland 1.30% West Virginia 0.03% Nevada 2.27% Alabama 1.19% Maine
  • 0.03%
Georgia 2.25% Iowa 1.15% Mississippi
  • 0.09%
Michigan 2.21% Minnesota 1.12% Alaska
  • 0.12%
Hawaii 2.19% New York 1.08% Louisiana
  • 0.34%
Idaho 2.16% Indiana 0.99% New Mexico
  • 0.38%
New Hampshire 2.12% Wisconsin 0.98% Kansas
  • 0.38%
Massachusetts 2.04% Kentucky 0.98% Oklahoma
  • 0.74%
Arizona 1.99% Arkansas 0.94% North Dakota
  • 1.80%
North Carolina 1.99% Ohio 0.93% Wyoming
  • 3.53%
Job Growth Rates - 12 Months Ending December 2016
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SLIDE 21
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SLIDE 22 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

McAllen-Mission-Edinburg Jobs

Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted

3.17% Prior 12 Months 7,900 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months
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U.S. Existing Home Sales & Median Prices

Sales Trailing 12 Months

$175 $200 $225 $250 14 '15 '16 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6

Median Price Homes Sales

Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales 12-Months Millions

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McAllen-Edinburg-Mission Home Sales & Median Prices

Sales Trailing 12 Months

$100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 14 '15 '16 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800

Median Price Homes Sales

Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales 12-Months

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McAllen MSA Existing Home Sales

50 100 150 200 250 300

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Number Per Month

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McAllen MSA Existing Home Sales

150 175 200 225 250

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Average Number Per Month For Prior 12 Months

+1.22 Percent
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McAllen MSA Existing Home Prices

$0 $25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Median Price

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McAllen MSA Existing Home Prices

$75,000 $100,000 $125,000 $150,000

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Median Price Prior 12 Month Average

+7.85 Percent
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McAllen MSA Residential Building Permits

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Single Family Multi

Number of Dwelling Units

4,674 Permits is the past 12 months, 7,900 New Jobs 1.69 New Jobs Per New Dwelling Unit – 1.25 to 1.5 is Normal
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SLIDE 30

Household Debt Service as a Percent of Household Disposable Income

9 10 11 12 13 14 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16

Percent

FED Board of Governors, BEA
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SLIDE 31 $150 $160 $170 $180 $190 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

U.S. Real Retail & Food Service Sales

$ Billions – Seasonally Adjusted

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SLIDE 32 4 8 12 16 20 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Light Weight Vehicle Sales

Millions – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Bureau of Economic Analysis

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SLIDE 33 Basis Months Number Points Duration Increases Increase June 2004 - June 2006 25 17 425 June 1999 - May 2000 12 6 175 March 1997 1 1 25 February 1994 - Feb 1995 13 7 300 Average 231.25 Median 237.5 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Fed Funds Target Rate Increases

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SLIDE 34 10-Year Treasury 1.81% 30-Year Residential 3.54% Lower Quartile 115.6 1/3rd 173.4 Median Quartile 231.3

Current Rates

Rate Increase Impact - Basis Points

12-18 Month Outlook Lower Quartile 2.97% 1/3rd 3.54% Median Quartile 4.12% Lower Quartile 4.71% 1/3rd 5.28% Median Quartile 5.86% * 30-Year Residential = 10-Yr +174 bp 30-Year Residential Rates 12-18 Months Treasury Forecasts 12-18 Months

Rates November 1, 2016

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SLIDE 35 MBA Percent Fannie Mae Percent Year Refi Change Year Refi Change 2016 901 $ 2016 922 $ 2017 471 $
  • 47.7%
2017 510 $
  • 44.7%
2018 410 $
  • 13.0%
2018 381 $
  • 25.3%
2019 395 $
  • 3.7%

Refinance Lending $ Billions

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SLIDE 36 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume

$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months

Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up Q4 2016 -10.6% Year-Over-Year
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SLIDE 37 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Texas Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume

$ Millions – Trailing 12 Months

Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up Q4 2016 -12.7% Year-Over-Year
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SLIDE 38 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 US Manhattan Texas

Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates

Percent – All Property Types, 4 Quarter Moving Average

Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
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Income Approach to Valuation Value = Income Capitalization Rate

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SLIDE 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 10-Year Treasury TTM Cap Rates

Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates & 10-Year Treasury

Percent – All Property Types, End of Quarter TTM Treasury Rate

Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
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Pearson's Product Spearman's Moment Rank Correlation Coefficient 57.500% 54.400% P-Value 0.0001% 0.0001% Probabilty 99.99% 99.99% Correlation Coefficients - Cap Rates & T-Bonds Quarterly Data - Q1 2001 - Q3 2016 Correlation Coefficeints

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19 Days

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Days to Drill & Fracture 30 Months Ago -- 40 Days Now – 19 Days

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SLIDE 46 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 4-Jan-02 6-Dec-02 7-Nov-03 8-Oct-04 9-Sep-05 11-Aug-06 13-Jul-07 13-Jun-08 15-May-09 16-Apr-10 18-Mar-11 17-Feb-12 18-Jan-13 20-Dec-13 21-Nov-14 23-Oct-15 23-Sep-16

North American Drilling Rig Counts

Number of Operating Rigs

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Oil & Gas Exploration Companies Will Boost Spending 7 Percent In 2017

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$550

Savings Per Driver

Vs 2014

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2017 Issues, Positives & Concerns

  • Return of ARMs & Second Loans
  • Faltering High-End Residential Sales
  • Retracting Commercial Sales
  • Inflation – UPS +4.9% December 26th
  • Midwest Land Values
  • Oil Sub-$60
  • …….
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