How Boomers & Millennials Are Influencing Community Development - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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How Boomers & Millennials Are Influencing Community Development g y p in Florida Association of Florida Community Developers y p September 12, 2014 Gregg Logan, Managing Director, RCLCO Community & Resort Advisory Group

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How Boomers & Millennials Are Influencing Community Development g y p in Florida

Association of Florida Community Developers y p

September 12, 2014

Gregg Logan, Managing Director, RCLCO Community & Resort Advisory Group

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SLIDE 2

GENERATIONAL SHIFTS INFLUENCING FLORIDA'S FUTURE FUTURE

  • Baby Boomers
  • Still influencing Florida’s growth and development, what’s

next? Wh t d thi ti t i th iti

  • What does this new generation want in the communities

we’re developing?

  • Generation Y (Millennials)
  • 24 million new Gen Y household formations by 2025!
  • 24 million new Gen Y household formations by 2025!
  • When will these renters become homebuyers?
  • What does this new generation want in the communities

we’re developing?

Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014

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RETIREES CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ON COASTS AND IN CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTS AND IN CENTRAL FLORIDA

Central Florida South Florida

>~30% population aged 65 or older

Source: 2014 Esri Estimates

>~50% population aged 65 or older

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Source: 2014 Esri Estimates

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CURRENT MILLENNIALS IN FLORIDA CONCENTRATED IN URBAN AREAS CONCENTRATED IN URBAN AREAS

  • College towns of

Gainesville and Tallahassee i i l h unsurprisingly have highest concentration of concentration of Gen Y

  • Jacksonville
  • Jacksonville,

Tampa, Orlando, and Miami follow

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SOUTH, EAST CENTRAL, TAMPA, & SOUTHWEST TO HAVE GREATEST 50+ POP INCREASE TO HAVE GREATEST 50+ POP. INCREASE

Increase in population aged 50+ by 2040 (000) 132 81

332 693

262 52

496 374 432

180

665 432

Source: BEBR 2012 2040 population estimates (released July 2013)

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665

Source: BEBR 2012-2040 population estimates (released July 2013)

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EAST CENTRAL, TAMPA, SOUTH, AND SOUTHWEST TO HAVE GREATEST MILLENNIAL POP INCREASE TO HAVE GREATEST MILLENNIAL POP. INCREASE

Increase in population aged 20-30 by 2040 (000) 32 9 87

234

47 15

172 106 110

47

136 110

Source: BEBR 2012 2040 population estimates (released July 2013)

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136

Source: BEBR 2012-2040 population estimates (released July 2013)

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GEN Y AND BABY BOOMERS LARGEST SEGMENTS IN FLORIDA SEGMENTS IN FLORIDA

100% 2012 Florida Population 2014 Age 25 1% 12.9% 11.3% 80% 90% 3.04M 4 84M 0-13 14 33 18 5% 27.4% 25.1% 60% 70% Gen Z Gen Y (Millennials) 4.84M 3 58M 14-33 34 48 29 3% 19.6% 18.5% 30% 40% 50% Gen Y (Millennials) Gen X Baby Boomers Eisenhowers 3.58M 34-48 15 8% 28.4% 29.3% 10% 20% 30% Eisenhowers 5.77M 50-68 11.7% 15.8% 0% 10% National Florida 2.18M 69+

Source: U S Census Bureau; 2012 American Community Survey 1 Year Estimates

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2012 American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates

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RETIREE POPULATION OVER 70% WHITE, NON HISPANIC NON-HISPANIC

Population Aged 65+ by Race

767 955 5,000 6,000

  • usands

245 301 392 490 588 436 511 636 767 3,000 4,000 Tho 2,528 2,789 3,203 3,569 4,013 245 1 000 2,000 , 1,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 White, Non-Hispanic Black or African American Hispanic or Latino (Any Race)

Source: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference; University of Florida Bureau of Economics and Business

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Source: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference; University of Florida, Bureau of Economics and Business

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MILLENNIALS IN FLORIDA MUCH MORE DIVERSE

Population Ages 20-34 by Race

Florida millennials to be

1 355 1 474 3,500 4,000 4,500

  • usands

Florida millennials projected to be majority-minority (54%) 68% “minority”

669 737 767 813 818 963 1,080 1,231 1,355 1,474 2 000 2,500 3,000 , Tho 1 757 1,855 1,859 1,881 1,831 669 1,000 1,500 2,000 1,757 1,855 ,859 , 1,831 500 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 White, Non-Hispanic Black or African American Hispanic or Latino (Any Race)

Source: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference; University of Florida Bureau of Economics and Business

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Source: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference; University of Florida, Bureau of Economics and Business

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LIFE-STAGE INFLUENCES HOUSING DEMAND

HOUSING NEEDS: 2015 2020 2025 S d R l Mill i l Gen Z / G Z Student Rental Millennials Gen Z / Millennials Gen Z Singles / Roommate Rentals Millennials Millennials Gen Z / Millennials Roommate Rentals Millennials Young Couple Rentals Millennials Millennials Gen Z / Millennials B E t L l Gen X / Mill i l Mill i l Buy Entry Level Gen X / Millennials Millennials Millennials Buy Upgrade / Move-Up Home Gen X / Baby Boomers Gen X / Baby Boomers Millennials / Gen X Move Up Home Baby Boomers Baby Boomers Gen X Buy 2nd Home Gen X / Baby Boomers Gen X / Baby Boomers Millennials / Gen X Buy Empty Nester B b B Gen X / Gen X / Buy Empty Nester Home Baby Boomers Gen X / Baby Boomers Gen X / Baby Boomers Buy Retirement Housing Baby Boomers / Eisenhowers Baby Boomers Baby Boomers

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  • us g

se

  • e s
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FLORIDA THE #1 DESTINATION FOR RETIREES BY A WIDE MARGIN A WIDE MARGIN

60-75 Year Olds Moving in To State in Last Year (Top 10)

14 640 18,477 15,866 17,804 15,452 12,342 15,929

300,000 350,000 Nevada

37 924 37,056 27,208 22,365 20,724 19,786 15,387 14,448 14,640 13,553 13,380 12,308 11,859

200,000 250,000 South Carolina Pennsylvania Ohio

38,514 38,681 39,011 43,911 29,791 37,924 28,339 17,848 15,387

100 000 150,000 Georgia North Carolina Texas

95,678 100,328 79,185 , 32,820

50,000 100,000 California Arizona Florida

Note: Does not include intra-state moves

  • 2010

2011 2012

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Source: 2010, 2011, 2012 ACS 1 Year Survey

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FORECAST ~56,000 ADDITIONAL AGE 60-75 HOUSEHOLDS PER YEAR; NEAR TERM HIGHER HOUSEHOLDS PER YEAR; NEAR-TERM HIGHER

Estimated Population by Year 1 400 000 1,600,000 1,800,000 Band

~4.3M 60-75 year

  • ld residents

expected by 2025

1 000 000 1,200,000 1,400,000 per Age 2010 Population 600 000 800,000 1,000,000

  • pulation

p 2015 Population 2020 Population 2025 Population 200,000 400,000 600,000 Florida Po p , 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 70 70-75 F

Source: ESRI

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Source: ESRI

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WHAT DO BOOMERS WANT IN THEIR COMMUNITIES? COMMUNITIES?

  • Convenience: Proximity to entertainment, retail

and medical facilities

  • Retiree Boomers: Affordability – attainable

prices on a retiree income

  • Ease:

Low-maintenance product and surroundings surroundings

  • Health: Lifestyle of health and sustainability

Source: RCLCO

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Source: RCLCO

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SUBURBAN MIXED LOCATIONS MOST PREFERABLE PREFERABLE

Current and Preferred Residence Location of Active For Sale Market 27% 30% 30% 35% Active For-Sale Market 16% 19% 15% 15% 13% 14% 16% 15% 20% 25% 11% 11% 13% 11% 14% 5% 10% 15% 0% City - Downtown City - Residential Suburban Mixed Suburban

  • Ngh. HH

Small Town Rural Area g Only Currently Live Prefer to Live

Source: NAR 2013 Community Preference Survey

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Source: NAR 2013 Community Preference Survey

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BOOMERS WANT TO “AGE IN PLACE” BUT GAPS PRESENT IN CURRENT & DESIRED COMMUNITIES PRESENT IN CURRENT & DESIRED COMMUNITIES

Community Features With Importance and Availability Gap Features Often Mentioned as Important to Boomers who Moved for Retirement

79 76 74 72 70 63 62 70 80 90 dents

With Importance and Availability Gap

63 83 80 83 76 81 70 80 90 dents

Boomers who Moved for Retirement

63 58 62 57 54 55 59 52 47 30 40 50 60 70 f Respond 63 62 61 60 53 40 50 60 70 f Respond 10 20 30 Percent o 10 20 30 rcentage o Per Important Present in Current Community Important Today Important "Later in Life"

Source: AARP 2011 Boomer Housing Survey

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Source: AARP 2011 Boomer Housing Survey

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WALKABILITY DESIRABLE, BUT BARRIERS EXIST IN CURRENT COMMUNITY DESIGN IN CURRENT COMMUNITY DESIGN

Aspects that Would Encourage More Walking by Age

42 45 65 29 42 32 46 B tt C diti f Places to Sit Safer Conditions Places to Go within Walking …

  • 42% were extremely

satisfied or very satisfied with the streets in their 35 36 37 41 26 32 26 29 Buffers between Sidewalks and… More Sidewalks/Walkways Better Lighting Better Condition of … streets in their community

  • 22% were not very

satisfied or not at all 32 32 32 35 26 28 25 Clearer Markings Less Traffic Slower Traffic Buffers between Sidewalks and … satisfied or not at all satisfied with the streets in their community 25 30 31 20 20 23 More Trees / Shade Longer Walk Cycles Wider Sidewalks

  • Those with lower

incomes more likely to be unsatisfied 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Respondents Aged 65+ Respondents Aged 50-64

Source: AARP July 2010 Transportation Use and Options of Midlife and Older Adults Survey

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Source: AARP July 2010 Transportation Use and Options of Midlife and Older Adults Survey

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WHAT RETIREES WANT IN THEIR COMMUNITY

Importance of Community Elements (1-5 Scale) 4.05 4.30 4.58 Proximity to Doctors and Hospital Area Reputation Safe Environment 3.87 3.95 4.01 Variety of Housing Options Variety of Amenites Proximity to Retail y p 3.55 3.80 3.83 Paved Walking, Jogging, Biking Parks / Green Spaces Access to Water and Nature y g p 3.35 3.44 3.45 Fitness Center Resort Style Pool Village Center with Retail g gg g g 3.34 1 2 3 4 5 Natural Trail System

Source: RCLCO Survey

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Source: RCLCO Survey

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MEANWHILE HERE COME THE MILLENNIALS

Florida Population Ages 20-30 1 452 1 438 3 500 4,000 4,500

  • usands

1,110 1,225 1,351 1,452 1,438 2 500 3,000 3,500 Tho 30 34 1,179 1,265 1,366 1,357 1,426 1,500 2,000 2,500 30-34 25-29 20-24 1,229 1,324 1,287 1,395 1,414 500 1,000 ,

  • 2010

2015 2020 2025 2030

Source: BEBR 2012 2040 population estimates (released July 2013)

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Source: BEBR 2012-2040 population estimates (released July 2013)

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RAGING DEBATE: IS THE “GREAT DELAY” A STATISTICAL ERROR TEMPORARY OR PERMANENT? STATISTICAL ERROR, TEMPORARY, OR PERMANENT?

Lack of Household formation is false – 18-24 year olds are just living in dorms Just looking at student ages misses those living at home until aged 34

“Almost half of young people "living with their parents" i ll h ll h i t “But it could be that the combination of higher student debt, a lack of good-paying jobs, and stagnant wages h t d l h d lt i l are in college, where all campus housing counts as "living with their parents.”... If we're going to freak out about young people, let's do so for the right reasons.”

  • Derek Thompson, The Atlantic

has created a new normal, where young adults simply expect to live at home for several extra years before venturing out on their own.”

  • David Dayen, The New Republic

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Source: The New Republic; Trulia; The Atlantic; U.S. Census; The Cleveland Fed

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GEN Y IN MULTIFAMILY / EVENTUALLY WILL SHIFT TO HOMEOWNERSHIP

  • Do millennials want to be

EVENTUALLY WILL SHIFT TO HOMEOWNERSHIP

homeowners?

  • Preference, or economics,

“Research suggests that they do t t b h b t 't

driving rental housing boom?

want to be homeowners but aren't in a hurry to do it. They’re facing financing prevention from being

  • Have had tougher time

recovering from recession

able to do so.”

  • Rick Sharga, EVP of Auction.com

than other segments of the market…

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MILLENNIALS WANT URBAN, WALKABLE, HIGH AMENITY PLACES HIGH-AMENITY PLACES

  • Most digitally connected generation
  • Embrace ethnically diversity

47% non white

  • Embrace ethnically diversity – 47% non-white
  • Environments that facilitate “connections”
  • Social, religious, institutional, business

Gathering spaces

  • Gathering spaces

‒ Want places where “community” happens

  • “Community infrastructure”

St t t k/ id

  • Street network/grid
  • Aesthetically inspiring – architecture, parks, plazas,

streetscapes

  • Walkable
  • Fun – you want to be there
  • Shopping you can’t find at the mall – unique
  • Great neighborhoods – mix of uses
  • Transit or transit ready
  • The ultimate amenity: convenience

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PREFERENCE FOR LOCATION BY GENERATION

Total Owner Active Market Preferences ( % of Total Respondents)

2.6% 1 9%

25.0% 30.0%

10 3% 7.5% 9.1% 1 1% 1.6% 1.9%

15.0% 20.0%

7 8% 1.9% 3 5% 10.3% 5.9% 6.0% 8.9% 0.8% 2.5% 3.6% 6.2% 0.2% 0.8% 1.1%

5.0% 10.0%

3.9% 2.7% 7.8% 3.7% 2.6% 3.5% 1.9% 3.5%

0.0% 5.0% City - D t City - R id ti l Suburban Mi d Suburban N d HH Small Town Rural Downtown Residential Area Mixed Ngd- HH Only Gen Y Gen X Baby Boomers Eisenhowers

Source: RCLCO

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Source: RCLCO

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GEN Y RENTERS PREFER URBAN PLACES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN OTHER GENERATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN OTHER GENERATIONS

Active Renter Market Preferences (% of Total Respondents)

4.4% 0.8% 1.5%

25.0% 30.0%

7.8% 11.4% 1.2% 6.1% 0.4% 1 0%

15.0% 20.0%

10.2% 10.6% 10.4% 3.5% 2 2% 4.1% 1.6% 1.4% 3.2% 1.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3%

5.0% 10.0%

% 3.5% 5.6% 5.8% 2.2%

0.0% 5.0% City - D t City - R id ti l Suburban Mi d Suburban N d HH Small Town Rural Downtown Residential Area Mixed Ngd- HH Only Gen Y Gen X Baby Boomers Eisenhowers

Source: RCLCO

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Source: RCLCO

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SIMILARITIES IN GENERATIONAL “PLACE” PREFERENCES PREFERENCES

Percentage of respondents indicating a preference for Percentage of respondents preferring three or more of compact

61

Shorter commute b t ll h indicating a preference for community attribute

59 59

$25K $50K Ed cation Gen Y three or more of compact development attributes

53 61

Close to shops, restaurants and

  • ffices (mixed use)

but smaller home

62 62 60 59

Renters Living Alone Post-Grad Education $25K-$50K Education

52

Mix of incomes

  • ffices (mixed use)

65 65 63 62

Living in Medium Living in Big City Income <$25K Renters

48 51

Mi f h Available public transit

70 66 66 65

African American Multigenerational HH Single Living in Medium …

48

20 40 60 80 Mix of homes

54 70

20 40 60 80 All respondents African American

Source: ULI America in 2013 Survey

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Source: ULI America in 2013 Survey

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PRODUCT EXAMPLES – MUELLER AUSTIN TX MUELLER, AUSTIN, TX

  • Project: Mueller Community (Pronounced “Miller”)

Standard Pacific Homes Row House Rendering

Project: Mueller Community (Pronounced Miller )

  • Location: Austin, Texas
  • Setting: Urban Infill Master Plan on former airport

site

  • Community:

Traditional Neighborhood Designed (TND) Community with multiple attached and ( ) y p detached product lines

  • Millennial Appeal: The 22.5’ x 55’ to 22.5’ x 90’ Lot

Size Row Homes with 1 145 to 2 220 square feet of

David Weekley Homes Row House Rendering

Size Row Homes with 1,145 to 2,220 square feet of conditioned space are a popular choice for Millennials, who are less concerned about the inferior school district Builders of this product line are school district. Builders of this product line are Standard Pacific Homes, The Muskin Company, Streetman Homes, and David Weekley Homes

Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014

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PRODUCT EXAMPLES – ONE LOUDOUN LOUDOUN VA ONE LOUDOUN, LOUDOUN, VA

  • Project: One Loudoun

Camberly Homes SFD Product

  • Location: Loudoun, Virginia
  • Setting: Urban Style Mixed-Use Project in Suburban

Location Location

  • Community: One Loudoun opened in 2011 and is

the top selling MPC in the Washington, D.C., region. The community includes detached and attached for

Miller & Smith

The community includes detached and attached for- sale product and for-rent apartments.

  • Millennial Appeal: Miller & Smith and Camberly

Miller & Smith SFD Product

Homes are offering a downtown single-family home collection on small lots with rear-loaded garages and front steps leading to the front door. Maintenance is

  • included. The smaller home on a smaller lot in an

urban configuration is unusual for Loudoun County in proximity to the town center is attracting Millennials.

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p y g

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DISCUSSION TOPICS/ QUESTIONS FOR PANEL QUESTIONS FOR PANEL

  • Baby Boomers, Gen Y’s:
  • How do you see the influence of these markets playing

t d i th f t ?

  • ut now and in the future?
  • What are you doing in your communities to capture this

k t? market? ‒Builder programs ‒New/revised product lines or neighborhoods ‒Marketing

Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014

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Gregg Logan Managing Director / Director of Community & Resort Advisory Ph (407) 515 4999 Phone: (407) 515-4999 glogan@rclco.com RCLCO 964 Lake Baldwin Lane Suite 100 Orlando, FL 32814 Phone: (407) 516-6592 Fax: (407) 515-6599 www.rclco.com