How Boomers & Millennials Are Influencing Community Development - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How Boomers & Millennials Are Influencing Community Development g y p in Florida Association of Florida Community Developers y p September 12, 2014 Gregg Logan, Managing Director, RCLCO Community & Resort Advisory Group

GENERATIONAL SHIFTS INFLUENCING FLORIDA'S FUTURE FUTURE • Baby Boomers o Still influencing Florida’s growth and development, what’s next? o What does this new generation want in the communities Wh t d thi ti t i th iti we’re developing? • Generation Y (Millennials) o 24 million new Gen Y household formations by 2025! o 24 million new Gen Y household formations by 2025! o When will these renters become homebuyers? o What does this new generation want in the communities we’re developing? Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 2

RETIREES CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ON COASTS AND IN CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTS AND IN CENTRAL FLORIDA Central Florida South Florida >~30% population aged 65 or older >~50% population aged 65 or older Source: 2014 Esri Estimates Source: 2014 Esri Estimates Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 3

CURRENT MILLENNIALS IN FLORIDA CONCENTRATED IN URBAN AREAS CONCENTRATED IN URBAN AREAS • College towns of Gainesville and Tallahassee unsurprisingly have i i l h highest concentration of concentration of Gen Y • Jacksonville • Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, and Miami follow Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 4

SOUTH, EAST CENTRAL, TAMPA, & SOUTHWEST TO HAVE GREATEST 50+ POP INCREASE TO HAVE GREATEST 50+ POP. INCREASE Increase in population aged 50+ by 2040 (000) 132 81 332 52 262 693 496 180 374 432 432 665 665 Source: BEBR 2012 2040 population estimates (released July 2013) Source: BEBR 2012-2040 population estimates (released July 2013) Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 5

EAST CENTRAL, TAMPA, SOUTH, AND SOUTHWEST TO HAVE GREATEST MILLENNIAL POP INCREASE TO HAVE GREATEST MILLENNIAL POP. INCREASE Increase in population aged 20-30 by 2040 (000) 32 9 87 15 47 234 172 47 106 110 110 136 136 Source: BEBR 2012 2040 population estimates (released July 2013) Source: BEBR 2012-2040 population estimates (released July 2013) Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 6

GEN Y AND BABY BOOMERS LARGEST SEGMENTS IN FLORIDA SEGMENTS IN FLORIDA 2012 Florida 2014 Age Population 100% 3.04M 0-13 11.3% 12.9% 90% 80% 25 1% 25.1% 4.84M 4 84M 14 33 14-33 27.4% 70% Gen Z 60% Gen Y (Millennials) Gen Y (Millennials) 18.5% 18 5% 3 58M 3.58M 34 48 34-48 50% 19.6% Gen X 40% Baby Boomers Eisenhowers Eisenhowers 30% 30% 29.3% 29 3% 5.77M 50-68 28.4% 20% 10% 10% 15 8% 15.8% 11.7% 2.18M 69+ 0% National Florida Source: U S Census Bureau; 2012 American Community Survey 1 Year Estimates Source: U.S. Census Bureau; 2012 American Community Survey, 1 Year Estimates Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 7

RETIREE POPULATION OVER 70% WHITE, NON-HISPANIC NON HISPANIC Population Aged 65+ by Race 6,000 ousands 5,000 955 767 767 Tho 588 4,000 636 490 392 511 3,000 436 301 245 245 2,000 4,013 3,569 3,203 2,789 2,528 , 1 000 1,000 0 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 White, Non-Hispanic Black or African American Hispanic or Latino (Any Race) Source: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference; University of Florida Bureau of Economics and Business Source: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference; University of Florida, Bureau of Economics and Business Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 8

MILLENNIALS IN FLORIDA MUCH MORE DIVERSE Population Ages 20-34 by Race Florida millennials to be 4,500 68% “minority” Florida millennials projected to ousands be majority-minority (54%) 4,000 3,500 , 1 355 1,355 1 474 1,474 Tho 1,231 1,080 3,000 963 2,500 813 767 818 737 669 669 2 000 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,881 , 1,855 1,855 1,859 ,859 1,831 1,831 1 757 1,757 500 0 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 White, Non-Hispanic Black or African American Hispanic or Latino (Any Race) Source: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference; University of Florida Bureau of Economics and Business Source: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference; University of Florida, Bureau of Economics and Business Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 9

LIFE-STAGE INFLUENCES HOUSING DEMAND HOUSING NEEDS: 2015 2020 2025 Gen Z / Gen Z / Student Rental S d R l Mill Millennials i l G Gen Z Z Millennials Singles / Gen Z / Millennials Millennials Roommate Rentals Roommate Rentals Millennials Millennials Young Couple Gen Z / Millennials Millennials Rentals Millennials Gen X / Gen X / Buy Entry Level B E t L l Mill Millennials i l Mill Millennials i l Millennials Buy Upgrade / Gen X / Gen X / Millennials / Move Up Home Move-Up Home Baby Boomers Baby Boomers Baby Boomers Baby Boomers Gen X Gen X Gen X / Gen X / Millennials / Buy 2 nd Home Baby Boomers Baby Boomers Gen X Buy Empty Nester Buy Empty Nester Gen X / Gen X / Gen X / Gen X / B b B Baby Boomers Home Baby Boomers Baby Boomers Buy Retirement Baby Boomers / Baby Boomers Baby Boomers Housing ous g Eisenhowers se o e s Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 10

FLORIDA THE #1 DESTINATION FOR RETIREES BY A WIDE MARGIN A WIDE MARGIN 60-75 Year Olds Moving in To State in Last Year (Top 10) 350,000 15,929 12,342 300,000 17,804 15,452 Nevada 15,866 18,477 14,640 14 640 South Carolina 14,448 250,000 19,786 20,724 11,859 Pennsylvania 12,308 22,365 27,208 13,380 13,553 Ohio 200,000 37,056 15,387 15,387 37,924 37 924 Georgia 17,848 43,911 150,000 28,339 39,011 North Carolina 29,791 Texas 38,681 38,514 , 100 000 100,000 California 32,820 Arizona 50,000 100,328 95,678 79,185 Florida - 2010 2011 2012 Note: Does not include intra-state moves Source: 2010, 2011, 2012 ACS 1 Year Survey Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 11

FORECAST ~56,000 ADDITIONAL AGE 60-75 HOUSEHOLDS PER YEAR; NEAR-TERM HIGHER HOUSEHOLDS PER YEAR; NEAR TERM HIGHER Estimated Population by Year 1,800,000 ~4.3M 60-75 year Band old residents 1,600,000 expected by 2025 1 400 000 1,400,000 per Age 1,200,000 2010 Population p 1,000,000 1 000 000 opulation 2015 Population 800,000 2020 Population 2025 Population p 600,000 600 000 Florida Po 400,000 200,000 , F 0 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 70 70-75 Source: ESRI Source: ESRI Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 12

WHAT DO BOOMERS WANT IN THEIR COMMUNITIES? COMMUNITIES? • Convenience: Proximity to entertainment, retail and medical facilities • Retiree Boomers: Affordability – attainable prices on a retiree income Low-maintenance product and • Ease: surroundings surroundings • Health: Lifestyle of health and sustainability Source: RCLCO Source: RCLCO Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 13

SUBURBAN MIXED LOCATIONS MOST PREFERABLE PREFERABLE Current and Preferred Residence Location of Active For-Sale Market Active For Sale Market 35% 30% 30% 27% 25% 19% 20% 16% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 15% 15% 13% 13% 11% 11% 11% 10% 5% 0% City - City - Suburban Suburban Small Town Rural Downtown Residential Mixed Ngh. HH g Area Only Currently Live Prefer to Live Source: NAR 2013 Community Preference Survey Source: NAR 2013 Community Preference Survey Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 14

BOOMERS WANT TO “AGE IN PLACE” BUT GAPS PRESENT IN CURRENT & DESIRED COMMUNITIES PRESENT IN CURRENT & DESIRED COMMUNITIES Community Features Features Often Mentioned as Important to With Importance and Availability Gap With Importance and Availability Gap Boomers who Moved for Retirement Boomers who Moved for Retirement 90 90 83 83 81 79 80 dents dents 76 80 74 76 80 72 70 70 70 63 63 62 62 70 70 f Respond f Respond 63 63 59 62 58 61 57 60 55 60 54 52 60 53 47 50 50 40 40 30 30 Percent o rcentage o 30 20 20 10 0 10 0 0 Per Important Present in Current Community Important Today Important "Later in Life" Source: AARP 2011 Boomer Housing Survey Source: AARP 2011 Boomer Housing Survey Association of Florida Community Developers | SEPTEMBER 2014 15