A Very Different Maine Charles S Colgan Muskie School of Public - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

A Very Different Maine

Charles S Colgan Muskie School of Public Service University of Southern Maine

The long long echoes of the baby boom and the birth dearth

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 Thousands 20-34 65+ 2010-20 2020-30 2030-40 2040-50 Leading Edge Turns 65 Trailing Edge Turns 65 Leading Edge Turns 80 Born in The 1980s Born in The 2000s Trailing Edge Turns 80

Maine v. US

25% 28% 21% 26% 23% 27% 24% 26% 36% 32% 29% 28% 9% 7% 13% 10% 7% 6% 13% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ME10 US 10 ME30 US 2030 popGT74 pop65_74 pop41_64 pop21_40 popLT21

Maine Age Distribution

24.7% 21.3% 20.6% 20.3% 22.9% 24.7% 24.4% 22.6% 36.5% 32.4% 28.8% 30.7% 8.5% 12.5% 13.3% 10.6% 7.4% 9.0% 12.9% 15.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2020 2030 2040 popGT74 pop65_74 pop41_64 pop21_40 popLT21

Median Age: 2013

40.5 44 39.4 42.3 39.9 42.5 36.8 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46

New England Age Distribution

22.1% 19.8% 21.2% 20.9% 21.1% 20.7% 27.8% 26.1% 29.7% 27.0% 29.3% 27.0%

36.6% 38.2% 35.9% 38.5% 35.8% 37.6%

7.3% 9.0% 7.1% 7.9% 7.3% 8.6% 6.2% 6.9% 6.0% 5.8% 6.5% 6.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% popGT74 pop65_74 pop35_64 pop21_34 popLT21

Regions will converge to the state average share of >65 population over the next 20 years, but Cumberland County will stay the “youngest” and the Midcoast the “oldest”

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 ARSTK10 ARSTK30 CUMB10 CUMB30 YORK10 YORK30 AFO10 AFO30 HWPP10 HWPP30 KS10 KS30 WKLS10 WKLS30 Ratop to Maine Share pop65_74 popGT74

The older population is mostly in the rural rim and along the coast, but is moving into the center

Population growth now shifts to migration

Source: Census, Maine Center for Business and Economic Research

Migration and Employment

Source: Census, Maine Center for Business and Economic Research

What if the future looks like the last 10 Years?

1,150,000 1,200,000 1,250,000 1,300,000 1,350,000 1,400,000 1,450,000 1,500,000 202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

Maine Population Forecasts 2020-2040

Base Alternate

What happens to Employment if we don’t replace the Baby Boom

• 25
• 20
• 15
• 10
• 5

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 Thousands of Jobs Migration -50% Migration-90%

Labor is going to cost more

0.9740 0.9745 0.9750 0.9755 0.9760 0.9765 0.9770 0.9775 0.9780 0.9785 0.9790 0.9795 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Labor Cost Index: Maine v. US

Retirement Age Increasing

And People Expect to Work Longer

Aroostook residents were very confident that they would continue working even after they retired from their current job

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% All Respondents Men Women

17% 14% 18% 79% 85% 75% 4% 1% 6%

Stop Completely At least some employment Don't Know 16

The Looming Governance Crisis

Population decline is already a fact of life from 2000- 2010 for 158 Maine Towns

The Crisis has hit first in Schools

Maine School Districts

Networks & Knowledge Spillovers

Organizational Innovations

Technology Innovations Public, Private and Non-Profit Organizations