2017 Sc oping Plan Update T he Pr o po se d Str ate gy fo r Ac - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
2017 Sc oping Plan Update T he Pr o po se d Str ate gy fo r Ac hie ving Califo r nias 2030 Gr e e nho use Gas T ar ge t Mar c h 28, 2017 1 Wo rksho p Ma te ria ls Slide s https:/ / www.a rb .c a .g o v/ c c / sc o ping pla n/ me
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T he Pr
ate gy fo r Ac hie ving Califo r nia’s 2030 Gr e e nho use Gas T ar ge t Mar c h 28, 2017
https:/ / www.a rb .c a .g o v/ c c / sc o ping pla n/ me e ting s/ me e ting s.htm
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Pa th to a c hie ve 40% re duc tio n in GHGs b y 2030 c o mpa re d to
1990 le ve ls
Builds o n Ca lifo rnia ’ s suc c e ss re duc ing GHGs Co ntinue s Ca lifo rnia ’ s le a de rship in imple me nting a c tio ns to
a c hie ve g lo b a l c lima te g o a ls
Pro po se d Pla n dra ws o n the suc c e sse s a nd the le sso ns le a rne d
fro m the pre vio us pla ns
Pro po se s c o ntinuing suc c e ssful pro g ra ms tha t ha ve se rve d a s a
mo de l fo r o the r sta te s a nd jurisdic tio ns a ro und the wo rld
Pro po se d Pla n a c hie ve s 2030 GHG re duc tio n ta rg e t a nd
c o ntinue s to ma ke o ur c o mmunitie s a nd e c o no my mo re re silie nt a nd e q uita b le a t the sa me time
Ac hie ve 2030 ta rg e t Pro vide dire c t GHG e missio ns re duc tio ns Pro vide a ir q ua lity c o -b e ne fits Minimize e missio ns “le a ka g e ” – inc re a se to no n-CA GHG e missio ns Suppo rt c lima te inve stme nt in disa dva nta g e d c o mmunitie s Pro te c t pub lic he a lth F
a c ilita te sub -na tio na l a nd na tio na l c o lla b o ra tio n
Suppo rt c o st-e ffe c tive a nd fle xib le c o mplia nc e Suppo rt Cle a n Po we r Pla n a nd o the r fe de ra l a c tio n
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Fewer GHG emissions per barrel of a refined product 20 percent GHG reductions by 2030
*E xisting c o mmitme nts inc lude d in a ny Sc o ping Pla n Upda te
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Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28
E nha nc e d e xisting c o mmitme nts (RPS >50%)
Pre sc riptive me a sure s fo r a ll industry (25-30% re duc tio ns b y 2030)
I nc e ntive pro g ra ms to re tire a nd re pla c e lig ht duty ve hic le s a nd na tura l g a s he a ting (>1 millio n c a rs a nd furna c e s re pla c e d)
Hig he r c o st o n Ca lifo rnia e c o no my tha n pro po se d pla n
Hig he r unc e rta inty o f no t me e ting 2030 ta rg e t
L imite d o ptio ns to mitig a te fo r le a ka g e
E xisting c o mmitme nts
Ca rb o n ta x a t the so c ia l c o st o f c a rb o n ($50 pe r me tric to n in 2030)
Diffic ult to se t ta x c o rre c tly to hit a n e missio ns ta rg e t. E xisting c a rb o n ta x in British Co lumb ia sho ws se tting the rig ht ta x to hit a ta rg e t is diffic ult.
Hig he r unc e rta inty o f no t me e ting 2030 ta rg e t
L imite d o ptio ns to mitig a te fo r le a ka g e
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Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28
All Ca p-a nd-T
ra de
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xisting c o mmitme nts
No furthe r e nha nc e me nts to L
ue l Sta nda rd
No re fine ry se c to r me a sure E
stima te d lo we r dire c t c o sts tha n pro po se d pla n
Ca p a nd T
a x
T
a x a ll GHG e missio ns tha t o c c ur
F
ue l supplie rs, g a s a nd e le c tric ity utilitie s, a nd industry wo uld e a c h re duc e GHG e missio ns b y a b o ut 4.5 pe rc e nt e a c h ye a r (fa ir sha re fro m 1990 le ve l)
le a ve the sta te , impa c ting jo b s a nd GDP
inc o rpo ra te d o ffse ts a nd tra ding to pro vide c o mplia nc e fle xib ility
tra ding
Hig he st dire c t c o sts tha n pro po se d pla n a nd a ll a lte rna tive s c o nside re d L
imite d o ptio ns to mitig a te fo r le a ka g e
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Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28
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Scenario Range of GHG Reductions (MMTCO2)* Range of NOx Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of VOC Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of PM2.5 Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of Diesel PM Reductions (Tons/Day) Proposed Scenario 100-184 54-68 6.4-8.1 4.2-5.4 4-9 E
stima te s fo r c rite ria a nd to xic s do no t inc lude a ny b e ne fits o f the Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m
Mo b ile So urc e s me a sure s prima ry drive rs o f b e ne fits in a ir q ua lity
Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y, Susta ina b le F re ig ht, 18% L CF S
18% L
CF S pro vide s c o nside ra b ly mo re a ir q ua lity b e ne fits tha n 20% re fine ry me a sure
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n 2030, Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m e stima te d to de live r 43-100 MMT CO2e re duc tio ns—inc lude d in GHG ra ng e in ta b le
Pre limina ry Re sults
Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28
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Scenario Range of GHG Reductions (MMTCO2)* Range of NOx Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of VOC Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of PM2.5 Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of Diesel PM Reductions (Tons/Day) No Cap-and- Trade (Prescriptive Regulations) 89-130 53-68 6.3-8 13-16 1-2 Sma lle r ra ng e o f GHG re duc tio ns in 2030 Mo b ile So urc e s me a sure s prima ry drive rs o f b e ne fits in a ir q ua lity
Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y, Susta ina b le F re ig ht, 25% L CF S
25% L
CF S pro vide s c o nside ra b le mo re a ir q ua lity b e ne fits tha n 30% re fine ry me a sure in 2030
Pre limina ry Re sults
Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28
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Scenario Range of GHG Reductions (MMTCO2)* Range of NOx Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of VOC Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of PM2.5 Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of Diesel PM Reductions (Tons/Day) Carbon Tax 100-184 54-68 6.4-8.1 4.2-5.4 4-9 I
ndividua l me a sure b e ne fits simila r to Pro po se d Pla n
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stima te s fo r c rite ria a nd to xic s do no t inc lude a ny b e ne fits o f the Ca rb o n T a x
Mo b ile So urc e s me a sure s prima ry drive rs o f b e ne fits in a ir q ua lity
Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y, Susta ina b le F re ig ht, 18% L CF S
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n 2030, Ca rb o n T a x e stima te d to de live r 43-100 MMT CO2e re duc tio ns – inc lude d in GHG ra ng e in ta b le
Pre limina ry Re sults
Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28
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Scenario Range of GHG Reductions (MMTCO2)* Range of NOx Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of VOC Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of PM2.5 Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of Diesel PM Reductions (Tons/Day) All Cap- and-Trade 100-184 53-67 6.9-8.8 4.2-5.4 5-10 I
ndividua l me a sure b e ne fits simila r to Pro po se d Pla n
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stima te s fo r c rite ria a nd to xic s do no t inc lude a ny b e ne fits o f Ca p-a nd-T ra de
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n 2030, Ca p-a nd-T ra de Pro g ra m e stima te d to de live r 50-110 MMT CO2e re duc tio ns – inc lude d in GHG ra ng e in ta b le
Slig htly hig he r DPM re duc tio ns tha n Pro po se d Pla n – within
mo de ling unc e rta inty
Pre limina ry Re sults
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Scenario Range of GHG Reductions (MMTCO2)* Range of NOx Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of VOC Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of PM2.5 Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of Diesel PM Reductions (Tons/Day) Cap-and- Tax 100-184 52-66 8.3-11 1.8-2.4 5-10 I
ndividua l me a sure b e ne fits simila r to Pro po se d Pla n
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stima te s fo r c rite ria a nd to xic s do no t inc lude a ny b e ne fits o f Ca p-a nd-T a x
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n 2030, Ca p-a nd-T a x Pro g ra m e stima te d to de live r 46-106 MMT CO2e re duc tio ns – inc lude d in GHG ra ng e in ta b le
Pre limina ry Re sults
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Mino r Cla rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28
Propose d Sc e na rio Alt 1- Pre sc riptive Re g ula tions Alt 2- Ca rbon T a x Alt 3 – All Ca p- a nd- T ra de Alt 4 – Ca p- a nd- T a x
Mo rta lity 140-170 140-190 140-170 120-150 120-160 Ho spita l- iza tio ns 21-26 21-28 21-26 18-22 19-23 E R Visits 59-73 59-78 59-73 51-63 53-66
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ndividua l inc ide nts in 2030, do e s no t inc lude c a nc e r risk
Do e s no t inc lude impa c ts o f Ca p-a nd-T
ra de , Ca rb o n T a x, All Ca p- a nd-T ra de , o r Ca p-a nd-T a x
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stima te s o nly a c c o unt fo r e missio ns unc e rta inty a nd no t he a lth b e ne fits mo de l unc e rta inty
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missio ns fro m po we r pla nts a re we ig hte d to re fle c t re duc e d e xpo sure fro m ta ll smo ke sta c k
Pre limina ry Re sults
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Existing Analyses IEPR, SIP, SLCP, AEO, others Reference Scenario Economy; technology; population; practices Vision Model Scoping Plan Measures Changes in Technologies & Practices
PAT HWAYS ANAL YSIS
Costs/Savings GHG Emissions Cap and Trade Carbon Prices
RE MI
Macroeconomic Impacts Updated Economy
Upda te d PAT HWAYS ANAL YSI S
Updated GHG Emissions Other Monetized Costs/Savings
AN E CONOMIC ANAL YSIS
Co sts, sa ving s, a nd GHG re duc tio ns a re c a lc ula te d in
PAT HWAYS
Assume c a rb o n pric ing mo tiva te s GHG re duc tio ns to fill a ny
g a p b e twe e n the pre sc riptive me a sure s a nd the 2030 GHG ta rg e t
Co mplia nc e c o sts a re e stima te d b y multiplying the c a rb o n
pric e (o r ra ng e o f pric e s) b y the e stima te d GHG re duc tio ns
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T
he Sc o ping Pla n mo de ling to o ls do no t inc lude fa c ility-le ve l de ta ils, thus the a na lysis is c o nduc te d a t the se c to r le ve l, like ly unde re stima ting c o sts
Co st o f re duc ing pro duc tio n is c a lc ula te d in RE
MI a s the c ha ng e in va lue a dde d
Va lue a dde d is the diffe re nc e b e twe e n g ro ss o utput a nd the c o st
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Scenario 2030 Stock Costs (Billion $2015) 2030 Fuel Costs (Billion $2015) 2030 Cost of Reductions due to Carbon Pricing (Billion $2015) 2030 Cost of Reduced Production (Billion $2015) 2030 Total Cost (Billion $2015) Proposed Scenario $6.5
$1.1 to $3.6 $1.9 to $4.4 No Cap-and Trade (Alt 1) $18.7 $1.0 $19.7 Carbon Tax (Alt 2) $6.5
$2.6 $3.4 All Cap-and- Trade (Alt 3) $5.6
$1.6 to $5.1
Cap-and-Tax (Alt 4) $17.9
$0 $50 $63.6
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nc lude s c a pita l a nd fue l c o sts fro m PAT HWAYS
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mpa c ts o f c a rb o n pric ing a nd re duc tio n in pro duc tio n a re c a lc ula te d o utside o f PAT HWAYS
Re sults inc lude mo ne tiza tio n o f he a lth impa c ts fro m c ha ng e s in
e missio ns o f die se l pa rtic ula te ma tte r a nd NOx
Avo ide d pre ma ture mo rta lity Ho spita liza tio ns E
R visits
Re sults do no t inc lude
Be ne fits o f a c tive tra nspo rta tio n Avo ide d e nviro nme nta l da ma g e s a s de fine d in the So c ia l Co st o f
Ca rb o n
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Re turn o f re ve nue
$2 b illio n o f Ca p-a nd-T ra de a uc tio n pro c e e ds fund GGRF pro je c ts e a c h ye a r
Re ma ining funds a re disb urse d a s a divide nd to Ca lifo rnia ns
Do e s no t a lte r the a ve ra g e g ro wth ra te o f GDP a nd pe rso na l e mplo yme nt re la tive to the re fe re nc e c a se
Re sults in a 0.1% c ha ng e in the a ve ra g e g ro wth ra te o f e mplo yme nt re la tive to the re fe re nc e c a se
Absolute Change Percentage Change California GDP (Billion $2015)
Employment (Thousand Jobs)
Personal Income (Billion $2015)
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Absolute Change Percentage Change California GDP (Billion $2015)
Employment (Thousand Jobs)
Personal Income (Billion $2015)
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$42 in 2020 (in $2007) $50 in 2030 (in $2007)
Absolute Change Percentage Change California GDP (Billion $2015)
Employment (Thousand Jobs)
Personal Income (Billion $2015)
Mino r c la rific a tio ns ma de 3/ 28
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Re turn o f re ve nue
$2 b illio n o f Ca p-a nd-T ra de a uc tio n pro c e e ds fund GGRF pro je c ts e a c h ye a r
Re ma ining funds a re disb urse d a s a divide nd to Ca lifo rnia ns
Do e s no t prio ritize dire c t e missio ns re duc tio ns fro m the la rg e st sta tio na ry so urc e s
Do e s no t inc lude e nha nc e d L CF S to suppo rt dive rsific a tio n o f tra nspo rta tio n fue ls
Absolute Change Percentage Change California GDP (Billion $2015)
Employment (Thousand Jobs)
Personal Income (Billion $2015)
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a x re ve nue is re turne d a s a divide nd to Ca lifo rnia ns
Re duc ing re fine ry pro duc tio n c o uld ha ve a la rg e impa c t o n
fue l pric e s
Re duc e d pro duc tio n in Ca lifo rnia will like ly le a d to le a ka g e
Do e s no t c o nside r the e c o no mic o r e missio ns impa c t o f
impo rting g o o ds a nd e ne rg y into Ca lifo rnia Absolute Change Percentage Change California GDP (Billion $2015)
Employment (Thousand Jobs)
Personal Income (Billion $2015)
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Proposed Plan No Cap-and- Trade Alt. 1 Carbon Tax
All Cap-and- Trade Alt. 3 Cap-and-Tax Alt 4. California GDP (Billion $2015)
(-0.4% to -0.6%)
(-1.2%)
(-0.6%)
(-0.2% to -0.5%)
(-2.0%)
Employment (Thousand Jobs)
(-0.3% to -0.4%)
(-1.2%)
(-0.4%)
(-0.2% to -0.3%)
(-1.5%)
Personal Income (Billion $2015)
(-0.2% to -0.1%)
(-0.9%)
(-0.1%)
(-0.1% to 0.0%)
(-1.0%) Re la tive to Re fe re nc e Sc e na rio in 2030 Ca lifo rnia GDP: $3.4 trillio n E mplo yme nt: 23,500,000 Pe rso na l I nc o me : $3.0 trillio n
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Re g ula to ry he a lth b e ne fits a re e stima te d b y q ua ntifying the ha rmful future
e ffe c ts tha t will b e a vo ide d b y re duc ing huma n e xpo sure to a ir po lluta nts
Mo ne tiza tio n me a sure s a he a lth e ffe c t’ s e c o no mic va lue to so c ie ty Inc o rpo ra te U.S. E
PA re c o mme nde d disc o unt ra te s o f 3% a nd 7% to va lue a vo ide d he a lth impa c ts in the future
Mo ne tiza tio n
Va lue o f sta tistic a l life
U.S. E PA a ppro ve d me tho d o lo g y
E stima te s willing ne ss to pa y fo r a re d uc tio n in mo rta lity risks
Va lua tio n o f mo rb id ity b e ne fits
Co st o f illne ss e stima te s mo ne tize the the b e ne fit o f a vo id e d mo rb id ity
a c ute re spira to ry ho spita liza tio ns
c a rd io va sc ula r ho spita liza tio ns
E R visits fo r a sthma
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Re fe re nc e : https:/ / yo se mite .e pa .g o v/ e e / e pa / e e rm.nsf/ vwAN/ E E
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VSL 3% Discount Rate (Million $2015) VSL 7% Discount Rate (Million $2015) 2030 VSL $5.7 $3.3
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($2015) 3% discount 7% discount Acute Respiratory Hospitalizations $30,000 $18,000 Cardiovascular Hospitalizations $34,000 $20,000 ER Visits for Asthma $490 $290
Ac ute re spira to ry ho spita liza tio ns: $45,000 Ca rdio va sc ula r ho spita liza tio ns: $53,000 E
R visits fo r a sthma :$740
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(Number of avoided incidences)
Proposed Plan
Alt 4. Mortality
140 to 170 140 to 190 140 to 170 120 to 150 120 to 160
All Hospitalizations
21 to 26 21 to 28 21 to 26 18 to 22 19 to 23
ER Visits
59 to 73 59 to 78 59-73 51 to 63 53 to 66
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c o no mic Va lua tio n inc lude s a vo ide d he a lth impa c ts re la te d to re duc tio ns in die se l pa rtic ula te ma tte r a nd NOx re la tive to the re fe re nc e c a se
Do e s no t inc lude c a rb o n re la te d dise a se he a lth impa c ts
inc lude d in the So c ia l Co st o f Ca rb o n
Do e s no t inc lude a ny po te ntia l b e ne fit a sso c ia te d with a c tive
tra nspo rta tio n
(Million $2015) Proposed Plan
Alt 4. Mortality
$460 to $970 $460 to $1,100 $460 to $970 $400 to $860 $400 to $900
All Hospitalizations
$0.4 to $0.9 $0.4 to $1.0 $0.4 to $0.9 $0.4 to $0.9 $0.4 to $0.8
ER Visits
$0.02 to $0.04 $0.02 to $0.04 $0.02 to $0.04 $0.02 to $0.03 $0.02 to $0.03
Total
$460 to $971 $460 to $1,100 $460 to $971 $400 to $861 $400 to $901
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MI Ca lifo rnia Co unty mo de l
DACs ide ntifie d using Ca lE
nviro Sc re e n 2.0
Co unty e mplo yme nt info rma tio n fro m Ame ric a n Co mmunity Surve y
(ACS) pro vide s c e nsus-tra c t le ve l e stima te s o f jo b s b y o c c upa tio n
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