Pub lic Wo rksho p 2017 Sc oping Plan Update T he Pro po se d - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Pub lic Wo rksho p 2017 Sc oping Plan Update T he Pro po se d Strate g y fo r Ac hie ving Califo rnia s 2030 Gre e nho use Gas T arg e t Oc to b e r 12, 2017 Sa c ra me nto , Ca lifo rnia 1 Wo rksho p Ma te ria ls Slide s https:/ /
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Oc to b e r 12, 2017 Sa c ra me nto , Ca lifo rnia
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Must b e upda te d a t le a st e ve ry 5 ye a rs
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sta b lishe s GHG e missio ns re duc tio n ta rg e t o f 40% b e lo w 1990 le ve ls b y 2030
Dire c ts CARB to upda te Sc o ping Pla n to inc o rpo ra te 2030 GHG
ta rg e t
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Ac hie ve 2030 ta rg e t Pro vide dire c t GHG e missio ns re duc tio ns Pro vide a ir q ua lity c o -b e ne fits Pro te c t pub lic he a lth Minimize e missio ns “le a ka g e ” – inc re a se to no n-CA GHG e missio ns Suppo rt c lima te inve stme nt in disa dva nta g e d c o mmunitie s F
a c ilita te sub -na tio na l a nd na tio na l c o lla b o ra tio n
Suppo rt c o st-e ffe c tive a nd fle xib le c o mplia nc e Suppo rt Cle a n Po we r Pla n a nd o the r fe de ra l a c tio n
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AB 398 pro vide s dire c tio n o n a po st-2020 Ca p-a nd-T
ra de Pro g ra m a nd upda te s to the re c e nt Sc o ping Pla n Upda te
AB 617 fo c use s o n re duc ing e xpo sure to c rite ria a nd to xic
po lluta nts in Ca lifo rnia ’ s mo st b urde ne d c o mmunitie s
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le c tric ity se c to r upda te s
xc lusio n o f pumping lo a ds fro m re ta il sa le s
nc lusio n o f b a nke d RE Cs
nc lusio n o f o ut-o f-sta te PCC3 RE Cs
Othe r: Mo to rc yc le e ne rg y de ma nd, b e hind-the -me te r CHP,
re frig e ra tio n me a sure
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Ne t ze ro o r ne g a tive GHG e missio ns a nd Minimize , whe re a ppro pria te , ne t GHG a nd b la c k c a rb o n e missio ns
Pre limina ry inte rve ntio n-b a se d g o a l fo r se q ue ste ring a nd a vo iding
e missio ns b y a t le a st 15-20 MMT CO 2e b y 2030 thro ug h e xisting pa thwa ys a nd ne w inc e ntive s
Se t pa thwa y to me e t se c to r o b je c tive s a nd inte rve ntio n-b a se d
g o a l
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irst wo rksho p o n F rida y Oc to b e r 13, 2017
Ong o ing de ve lo pme nt a nd fe e db a c k in 2018
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Scenario Range of GHG Reductions (MMTCO2)* Range of NOx Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of VOC Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of PM2.5 Reductions (Tons/Day) Range of Diesel PM Reductions (Tons/Day) Scoping Plan Scenario 100-184 48-73 5.1-7.3 1.4-2.4 5-12
Mo b ile So urc e Stra te g y, Susta ina b le F
re ig ht, 18% L CF S
Propose d Sc e na rio (annual r e duc tio ns)
Mortality 140-210 Hospitalizations 20-31 ER Visits 58-88
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ndividua l inc ide nts in 2030, do e s no t inc lude c a nc e r risk
Do e s no t inc lude impa c ts o f Ca p-a nd-T
ra de
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stima te s o nly a c c o unt fo r e missio ns unc e rta inty a nd no t he a lth b e ne fits mo de l unc e rta inty
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missio ns fro m po we r pla nts a re we ig hte d to re fle c t re duc e d e xpo sure fro m ta ll smo ke sta c k
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nc lude s c a pita l a nd fue l c o sts fro m PAT HWAYS
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mpa c ts o f c a rb o n pric ing a re c a lc ula te d o utside o f PAT HWAYS
Re sults inc lude mo ne tiza tio n o f he a lth impa c ts fro m c ha ng e s
in e missio ns o f die se l pa rtic ula te ma tte r a nd NOx
Avo ide d pre ma ture mo rta lity
Ho spita liza tio ns
E R visits
Re sults do no t inc lude
Be ne fits o f a c tive tra nspo rta tio n
Avo ide d e nviro nme nta l da ma g e s a s c a lc ula te d with the so c ia l c o st
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Scenario 2030 Stock Costs (Billion $2015) 2030 Fuel Costs (Billion $2015) 2030 Cost of Reductions due to Carbon Pricing (Billion $2015) 2030 Total Cost (Billion $2015) Scoping Plan Scenario $6.0
$1.6 to $5.1 $1.7 to $5.2
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Absolute Change Percentage Change California GDP (Billion $2015)
Employment (Thousand Jobs)
Personal Income (Billion $2015)
Ca lifo rnia GDP: $3.4 trillio n E
mplo yme nt 23,500,000
Pe rso na l I
nc o me : $3.0 trillio n
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(Million $2015) Sc oping Plan Sc e nar io
Mo rta lity $1,200 - $1,810 Ho spita liza tio ns $970 - $ 1,500 E R Visits $0.04 - $0.065 T
$1,210 – 1,810
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