2016 Q1 Orange financial results Q2 Ramon Fernandez Deputy CEO, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2016 Q1 Orange financial results Q2 Ramon Fernandez Deputy CEO, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2016 Q1 Orange financial results Q2 Ramon Fernandez Deputy CEO, Chief Financial and Strategy Officer Q3 26 April 2016 Q4 disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements about Orange. Although we believe these statements


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SLIDE 1

2016

Orange financial results

Ramon Fernandez

Deputy CEO, Chief Financial and Strategy Officer 26 April 2016

Q4 Q3 Q2

Q1

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SLIDE 2

disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements about Orange. Although we believe these statements are based on reasonable assumptions, they are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, including matters not yet known to us or not currently considered material by us, and there can be no assurance that anticipated events will occur or that the objectives set out will actually be achieved. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from the results anticipated in the forward-looking statements include, among
  • thers: the success of Orange’s strategy, particularly its ability to maintain control over customer relations when facing competition with
OTT players, Orange’s ability to withstand intense competition in mature markets and business activities, its ability to capture growth
  • pportunities in emerging markets and the risks specific to those markets, fiscal and regulatory constraints and changes, and the results
  • f litigation regarding regulations, competition and other matters, the success of Orange's French and international investments, joint
ventures and strategic partnerships in situations in which it may not have control of the enterprise, and in countries presenting additional risk, risks related to information and communications technology systems generally, including networks or software failures due to cyberattacks, damage to networks caused by natural disasters, voluntary acts or other reasons, loss or disclosure to third parties of customers data, health concerns surrounding telecommunications equipment and devices, Orange's credit ratings, its ability to access capital markets and the state of capital markets in general, exchange rate or interest rate fluctuations, and changes in assumptions underlying the carrying amount value of certain assets and resulting in their impairment. More detailed information on the potential risks that could affect our financial results will be found in the Registration Document and in the annual report on Form 20-F filed on April 4, 2016 with, respectively, the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward- looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Other than as required by law (in particular pursuant to sections 223-1 and
  • seq. of the General Regulations of the AMF), Orange does not undertake any obligation to update them in light of new information or
future developments. 2 2 Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016
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SLIDE 3

Section one Q1 2016 highlights

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SLIDE 4

Q1 2016 achievements

Revenue

€ 10.0 bn

Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016

Restated EBITDA1 Capex

€ 2.6 bn € 1.5 bn

+0.6% yoy

  • 1.6% yoy

+0.3% yoy

  • excl. Group employee
share plan

+10.4% yoy

supporting VHBB yoy : comparison with the same period of the previous year, on a comparable basis qoq : comparison with the previous quarter, on a comparable basis 1) see slide 23 for EBITDA restatements. 4

M&A

* post March 31st Closing of DRC* Closing of Liberia* Closing of EE Closing of LexSi* Investment in AIG* Signing of Groupama*
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SLIDE 5

Solid commercial performance with convergence as the cornerstone

5.8m Spain Poland 2.4m France 8.7m 1.2m 1.1m Romania Belgium Rest of Europe 0.1m France 1.1m Spain 1.0m

4G customer base

20m

FTTH customer base

2.2m

IPTV

8.2m

5 x2.0 yoy 4G base and yoy growth FTTH base & yoy growth x2.1 yoy Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016 Poland 0.8m France 5.4m Spain 3.1m +10% yoy 0.4m Spain 0.8m Poland 6.6m France IPTV base & yoy growth +92% +98% x2.6 x2.6 +84% +69% x3.2* +42% +7% +6% x2.8 +12% +11% +30% Convergent base & yoy growth

Convergence

9.3m

+14% yoy * cb, including Jazztel
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SLIDE 6

Section two

Financial results

  • verview
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SLIDE 7

Third quarter of revenue growth in a row

7 Group revenue growth yoy yoy Q116 +0.6% Q4 15 +0.1% Q3 15 +0.5% Q2 15
  • 0.2%
Q1 15
  • 0.9%
Q4 14
  • 0.6%
Q3 14
  • 2.3%
Q2 14
  • 3.4%
Q1 14
  • 3.8%
France Europe FY15 Q1 16 +0.4% Q1 16
  • 2.3%
FY15 +4.4%
  • 0.8%
  • 5.6%
Q1 16 FY14
  • 3.5%
+7.1% +5.1% FY14 FY15
  • 0.7%
Q1 16 FY14
  • 1.7%
FY14
  • 0.9%
+2.1% FY15 Africa & the Middle-East Enterprise Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016 Q1 2016

Q1 2016 revenue

€10.0bn

+0.6% +€59m
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SLIDE 8

Restated EBITDA driven by revenue growth and cost control

8 Restated EBITDA evolution (in €m) Q1 2016

Q1 2016 Restated EBITDA

€2.6bn

25.7% of rev.

  • 1.6%
  • €43m
EBITDA growth excl. Group employee share plan EBITDA growth Q1 16 +0.3%
  • 1.6%
Q4 15 Q3 15 Q2 15 Q1 15
  • 2.1%
Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 14
  • 5.6%
Q4 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Q1 13
  • 6.6%
Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016 59 Q1’16 2,569 Other costs,
  • /w 16m€
Euro 2016
  • 32
Ifric 21 and taxes in Belgium
  • 19
Employee share plan
  • 50
Revenues 1Q 15cb 2,611 Improvement in 1st quarter trend yoy
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SLIDE 9

Our investment efforts allow us to offer the best connectivity to

  • ur customers
9 Q1 2016

Q1 2016 CAPEX

€1.5bn

14.6% of rev.

+10.4% +€137m Internet access QoS in France Short-link average speed (Arcep, April 2016) FTTH 200 Mb/s 100 Mb/s 30 Mb/s ADSL2+ VDSL Uplink Downlink Coaxial cable 500 Mbit/s 0 Mbit/s FTTH connectable homes Spain

7.4m

+85% yoy* Poland

0.8m

x8 yoy France

5.5m

+39% yoy 250 Mbit/s Poland 89% Belgium 99% Spain 87% Moldova 85% Romania 72% Slovakia 65% France 81% % of population covered by 4G 2G/3G/4G mobile QoS in France Rootmetrics ranking, April 2016 * cb, including Jazztel Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016 Paris Marseille Lyon
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SLIDE 10

Section three

Business review

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SLIDE 11

Q1 2016 France financials

Strong operational performance supported by ARPU trend improvement

11 Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016
  • 12%
  • 8%
  • 4%
0% 4% Q4 14 Q1 15 Q4 15 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q2 15 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q3 15 Q1 16 Q4 15
  • 0.4%
  • 0.8%
Q2 15 Q1 15
  • 1.4%
  • 1.1%
  • 1.2%
Mobile services excl. national roaming (yoy in %)

33.0

BB ARPU €/month yoy in %
  • 6.4%
  • 0.7%
Q1 16 Q4 15 Q3 15
  • 1.3%
  • 2.0%
Q1 15
  • 4.5%
Q2 15

22.4

Mobile ARPU €/month yoy in % Fixed Broadband revenues evolution (yoy in %) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Q3 15 Q1 16 Q4 15 Q2 15 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q4 14 Q3 14 Q1 15 in €m Q1 15 cb Q1 16 yoy cb Revenues 4,725 4,691
  • 0.7%
  • /w mobile services
1,854 1,809
  • 2.4%
  • /w mobile equipment
149 165 +11.2%
  • /w fixed services
2,578 2,581 +0.1%
  • /w others
144 136
  • 5.9%
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SLIDE 12 +41 +179 +234 +76 +256 +219 +59 +85 +54 +110 Q2 15 14.4% Q1 15 +164 14.2% Q4 15 13.4% Q3 15 13.5% 16.3% Q4 14 14.8% Q3 14 15.2% Q2 14 15.5% Q1 14 Q1 16 13.0% contract churn rate contract net adds excl. M2M (in ‘000s)

96% of customers repriced on post April 2013 tariff plan

+4 pts

49% of retail voice contract are on 4P offers

+5 pts

55% of retail voice contract are on SIM-only offers

+16 pts

8.7m

4G 4G

customers 12

43%

  • f contract customer
base excl. M2M

Q1 2016 France mobile KPIs

Mobile contract base (excl. M2M) up 2.7% yoy, leveraging on premium strategy

Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016 Large contract on public sector

8,716

4G activated sites

81%

coverage in % of pop.
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SLIDE 13
  • 16
  • 15
+20
  • 19
+47 +50 +65 +8 2 +75 +8 2 +108 +13 3 +115
  • 12
  • 7
+8
  • 8
+13 Q4 14 +95 95 Q3 14 +85 85 Q2 14 +35 Q1 14 +31 Q1 16 +96 96 Q4 15 +121 Q3 15 +116 Q2 15 +75 Q1 15 +67 13 ADSL* net adds (in ‘000s) FTTH net adds (in ‘000s)

53%

  • f FTTH net adds
are new customers

10.8m

broadband customers

+3.9% yoy * and others (satellite…) ** Orange estimates *** Play and Jet

50% of BB customers have a 4P offer

+4 pts yoy

40% of retail BB customers are on high-end*** offers

+3 pts yoy

1.1m

FTTH TH

customers

5.5m FTTH

connectable homes

20%

FTTH adoption rate

10%

  • f BB customer
base 45%** 33% 11% BB conquest share

Q1 2016 France fixed KPIs

FTTH accelerating BB customer base growth

Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016

57% of retail FTTH customers are on high-end*** offers

  • 1 pt yoy
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SLIDE 14

5.8m

4G 4G

customers

86.7%

coverage of pop.

1m FTTH

TH customers

3.8m

BB BB

customers

365k TV customers

Q1 16 +8.8% +4.4% Q4 15 +6.6% +0.7% Q3 15 +6.6%
  • 2.7%
Q2 15 +7.8%
  • 6.6%
Q1 15 +9.4%
  • 9.6%
fixed broadband mobile services 14 Quarterly revenues evolution (% yoy) Including Jazztel from the 1st of July 2015 x3.2 yoy* x2.8 yoy

Q1 2016 Spain

Top line back to growth thanks to strong commercial performance in FTTH and 4G

Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016

38% of mobile customers are 4G customers

+15 pts yoy

27% of fixed customers are FTTH customers

+18 pts yoy

7.4m FTTH

connectable homes

82% of fixed broadband customers on convergent offers

+3.7pts yoy * cb, including Jazztel in €m Q1 15 cb Q1 16 yoy cb Revenues 1,168 1,189 +1.8%
  • /w mobile services
590 616 +4.4%
  • /w mobile equipment
140 119
  • 15.1%
  • /w fixed services
433 454 +5.0%
  • /w others
6
  • 98.8%
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SLIDE 15 15

Steady growth in fixed VHBB customers

in ‘000s and in % of ADSL + VHBB base

Improving momentum in mobile contract net adds

in ‘000s

Continuous momentum in convergent customers

in ‘000s and in % of BB base, excl. CDMA Q1 16 766 38% Q4 15 728 36% Q3 15 667 32% Q2 15 627 30% Q1 15 591 28% 10% 13% Q2 15 232 11% Q1 15 207 18% Q4 15 316 15% Q3 15 271 Q1 16 366 +170 +190 +274 +214 +48 x 4.5 Q1 16 Q4 15 Q3 15 Q2 15 Q1 15

Q1 2016 Poland

Targeted commercial spend yielding better net adds trends in mobile and VHBB

Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016 in €m Q1 15 cb Q1 16 yoy cb Revenues 670 642
  • 4.2%
  • /w mobile services
312 306
  • 2.1%
  • /w mobile equipment
32 44 +39.6%
  • /w fixed services
299 273
  • 8.7%
  • /w others
27 19
  • 28.7%
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SLIDE 16 16

Solid contract net-adds in Belgium (excl. M2M)

in 000s +8 +28 +8 +9
  • 5
Q1 16 Q4 15 Q3 15 Q2 15 Q1 15

Steady improvement in Belgium contract ARPU

in % yoy

Rapid growth in Belgium 4G user base

4G users as a % of total base Q1 16 +3.3% Q4 15 +3.6% Q3 15 +3.6% Q2 15 +0.6% Q1 15
  • 1.1%
Q1 16 Q4 15 32% Q3 15 26% Q2 15 23% Q1 15 19% 35%

Q1 2016 Belgium & Luxembourg

Another quarter of solid growth

in €m Q1 15 cb Q1 16 yoy cb Revenues 302 309 +2.3%
  • /w mobile services
247 254 +2.9%
  • /w mobile equipment
32 31
  • 3.7%
  • /w fixed services
21 18
  • 13.8%
  • /w others
2 6 +201.5% Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016
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SLIDE 17 17

…driven by Romania solid revenue performance

YoY in %

Sustained revenue growth…

YoY in % Q1 16 Q4 15 +2.9% Q3 15 +3.2% Q2 15 +1.8% Q1 15
  • 2.2%
+2.8% +6.5% Q4 15 +7.4% Q3 15 +7.0% Q2 15 +6.4% Q1 15
  • 3.7%
Q1 16

Mobile contract net-adds in line with last year performance (excl. M2M)

in 000s +36 +115 +76 +64 +46 Q4 15 Q3 15 Q2 15 Q1 15 Q1 16

Q1 2016 Central European countries

Sustained revenue growth, driven by Romania’s solid performance at +6.5% yoy

Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016 in €m Q1 15 cb Q1 16 yoy cb Revenues 384 395 +2.8%
  • /w mobile services
318 326 +2.5%
  • /w mobile equipment
26 25
  • 1.9%
  • /w fixed services
30 33 +9.2%
  • /w others
10 10 +6.5%
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SLIDE 18

Q1 2016 Africa & Middle East

Steady revenue growth at +4.4% yoy

in €m Q1 15 cb Q1 16 yoy cb Revenues 1,218 1,271 +4.4%
  • /w mobile services
987 1,038 +5.1%
  • /w mobile equipment
17 19 +10.8%
  • /w fixed services
190 192 +1.2%
  • /w others
24 22
  • 6.9%
*announced in Q1 2016, subject to relevant approvals. **announced in 2015, subject to relevant approvals. *** includes 100% of associates Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016

17.8m

Orange Money customers ***

+34% yoy

+42%

Data revenue growth yoy

16,108

3G activated sites +30% yoy

3,156

4G activated sites x85 yoy Acquisition of Airtel’s subsidiaries in Burkina Faso and Sierra Leone* Closing of Cellcom Liberia in April Disposal of Telkom Kenya** Closing of Tigo in DRC in April Shareholding stake in AIG, operating in 23 African countries, in April 18
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SLIDE 19 19

Revenue per segment

yoy in %

Q1 2016 Enterprise

Revenue back to growth driven by IT Services

Q116 +2.1% Q4 15
  • 0.4%
Q3 15 +0.5% Q2 15
  • 0.5%
Q1 15
  • 3.4%
Q4 14
  • 2.2%
Q3 14
  • 1.7%
Q2 14
  • 3.0%
Q1 14
  • 2.3%
Voice Total IT Data in €m Q1 15 cb Q1 16 yoy cb Revenues 1,550 1,583 +2.1% voice 386 378
  • 2.3%
data 707 710 +0.4% IT & integration services 457 496 +8.6% Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016
  • 6.6%
+18.2%
  • 6.5%
Q1 15 +12.0% Q1 16
  • 5.3%
+3.7% Q2 15
  • 6.4%
+11.0% Q3 15 Q4 15 +2.7%
  • 6.3%
+4.6% +2.7% +3.9% +4.6% +1.6% Q4 15 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q1 16

Voice services

yoy access growth in France

International revenues excl. equipment resale

yoy in % PSTN XoIP
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SLIDE 20

Section four

2016 guidance

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SLIDE 21

2016 guidance confirmed

21

Restated EBITDA Net debt / Restated EBITDA M&A policy Dividend

* subject to shareholders’ approval

2016 > 2015 Around 2x

in the medium term

€0.60*

comparable basis

2016 dividend

June 23rd, 2016 2015 dividend balance of € 0.4** **subject to the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders approval ex-date June 21th, record date June 22th, payment date June 23rd Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016 December 2016 2016 interim payment of €0.20

Selective with focus on existing footprint

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SLIDE 22

Appendices

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SLIDE 23 23 in €m Q1’15 cb Q1’16 actual EBITDA restated 2,611 2,569 restructuring
  • 14
  • 113
litigations
  • 23
39 labour related
  • 71
  • 30
  • \w Senior Part Time
  • 37
  • 30
  • \w Holiday pay
  • 34
  • thers
  • 16
EBITDA reported 2,503 2,449 mainly related to departure plans in Spain

EBITDA restatements

1 Q1 2016 results, 26th April 2016
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SLIDE 24

Revenues yoy evolution

France

Group

Spain Poland Central European countries Africa & the Middle-East Enterprise
  • 6%
  • 5%
  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%
0% 1%
  • 4.8%
Q1 15
  • 4.0%
Q4
  • 5.1%
Q3
  • 3.8%
Q2 Q4 Q1 14
  • 2.3%
  • 0.2%
  • 0.9%
  • 0.6%
Q1 16 +0.1% Q4 +0.6% Q3 +0.5% Q3 Q2 Q1 13
  • 4.1%
Q2
  • 3.4%
yoy Europe Belgium & Luxemburg 24
  • 5%
  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%
0% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
  • 0.7%
Q4 Q3 Q2 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 +4.4% Q4 Q3 Q2
  • 10%
  • 5%
0% 5% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 +0.4% Q4 Q3 Q2
  • 4%
  • 2%
0% 2% 4% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 +2.1% Q4 Q3 Q2
  • 10%
  • 5%
0% 5% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 +1.8% Q4 Q3 Q2
  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%
0% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16
  • 4.2%
Q4 Q3 Q2
  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%
0% 5% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 +2.3% Q4 Q3 Q2
  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%
0% 2% 4% Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 +2.8% Q4 Q3 Q2