1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four - - PDF document

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1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four - - PDF document

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10/26/16 AFRICAN FUTURES PAPER NO 19 Jakkie Cilliers Institute for Security Studies jcilliers@issafrica.org @jakkiecilliers @ISSAfrica SCOPE 1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The

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Jakkie Cilliers Institute for Security Studies

jcilliers@issafrica.org @jakkiecilliers @ISSAfrica

AFRICAN FUTURES PAPER NO 19

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SCOPE

1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion

@jakkiecilliers

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THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES FORECASTING SYSTEM (IFS) IS …

  • A dynamic, global model that integrates data and
  • utcomes across development systems.
  • Historical data for over 3 500 data series for 186

countries

  • Allows:
  • 1. Historical trends
  • 2. Current path/base case forecasts
  • 3. Alternative future scenarios

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IFS MAJOR SUB-MODULES

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EXPANDING RELATIONSHIPS

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CONNECTIONS FOR ONE COUNTRY

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SCOPE

1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion

@jakkiecilliers

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USED FOUR DATASETS

@jakkiecilliers

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SCOPE

1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion

@jakkiecilliers

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WORLD: HISTORY OF DEMOCRACY

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 V-Dem Polity World Polity World V-Dem

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FREEDOM HOUSE: AFRICA

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ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

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POLITY IV

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DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA OCCURING AT EVER LOWER LEVELS OF INCOME

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Polity score Thousand of 2015 US$ GDPPC Africa GDPPC world Polity Africa Polity world

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THE AFRICAN EXPERIENCE WITH DEMOCRACY

An intrinsic ‘good’ but democracy has been undermined by:

  • Association with neo-liberal economic policies
  • Western support to dictators and authoritarian states
  • Weakness of the African state - process of delayed state formation -

African states simultaneously have to provide security, develop capacity and become more inclusive Neopatrimonialism has adapted to democracy – African elites go through motions of elections but frustrate the essence Rise of China vs relative decline in influence of Africa’s traditional development partners – African elites (again) have alternatives But hugely popular (Afrobarometer)

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SCOPE

1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion

@jakkiecilliers

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TWO KEY QUESTIONS

  • 1. The sequencing debate: what comes first,

democracy or development?

  • 2. What elements of democracy matter for human

and economic development?

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THE SEQUENCING DEBATE

  • 1. The sequencing debate: what comes first, democracy
  • r development?
  • Democracy and good governance accompany development,

not prerequisites.

  • Democracy is not a necessary byproduct of growth, but

higher GDP per capita prevents democratic backsliding

  • Nature of governing elites important – need for a

developmental state at low levels of development

  • Development often chaotic, corrupt and violent – easier to

manage without democracy

  • As countries develop, democracy becomes more important

to sustain productivity improvements and hence growth

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Expanded inclusion as part of social contract Growth of state capacity to regulate, tax, administer & provide services Formation of a security community that expands, defends, establishes

  • rder – often a

violent process

THE SEQUENCING DEBATE

Competing tribes or ethnic groups, shifting alegiances and borders Institutions Personal rule

Time

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TWO KEY QUESTIONS

  • 1. The sequencing debate: what comes first,

democracy or development?

  • 2. What elements of democracy matter for

human and economic development?

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WHAT ELEMENTS OF DEMOCRACY ARE IMPORTANT FOR DEVELOPMENT?

  • 2. What elements of democracy matter for human and

economic development?

Electoral aspects of democracy Citizen empowerment aspects of democracy

Clean, competitive elections Participation, deliberation and egalitarianism Chief executive that is selected through elections Female empowerment Suffrage that is extensive Strong and diversified civil society Political and civil society

  • rganizations able to operate freely

Equality before the law and individual liberty Freedom of expression including access to alternative information Thus a state-centred vs a society-centred view of development

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SCOPE

1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion

@jakkiecilliers

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WORLD: HISTORY OF DEMOCRACY

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 V-Dem Polity World Polity World V-Dem

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THE FUTURE

  • Two scenarios:
  • Fourth Wave
  • Authoritarian Regression
  • Short/medium-term democratic regression likely due to: failure of

Arab Spring; impact of US invasion of Iraq; continued impact of 2008 global recession; rise of populism; and global rebalancing

  • But waves have crests and troughs - long-term global trend is

towards more democracy

  • Africa?
  • Huge popular demand, but traditional development partners have lost

leverage while authoritarian development model popular amongst leaders

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POLITY IV: HISTORY AND FORECAST

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Polity scale 0-20 Africa Regress Africa 4th Wave World Regress World - 4th Wave

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SCOPE

1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion

@jakkiecilliers

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AFRICA: DIFFERENCE IN GDP (MER)

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178 2 506 11 581 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 2030 2050 2070 Bn 2015 US$

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AFRICA: DIFFERENCE IN GDP PER CAPITA

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140 1 214 4 068 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2030 2050 2070 2015 US$

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AFRICA: DIFFERENCE IN POVERTY

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  • 11
  • 91
  • 146
  • 160
  • 140
  • 120
  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

2030 2050 2070 Milions of people

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ETHIOPIA AND THE POTENTIAL GAINS FROM DEMOCRACY

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SIZE OF ETHIOPIA’S ECONOMY (MER) BY 2043

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$316 bn $326 bn $361 bn 290 300 310 320 330 340 350 360 370 Bn 2015 US$ Dem Regression Current Path 4th Wave

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GDP PER CAPITA BY 2043

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$4 030 $4 110 $4 410 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Thosand 2015 US$ Dem Regression Current Path 4th Wave

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ETHIOPIA: MILLIONS OF EXTREMELY POOR PEOPLE BY 2043

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21.9m 21.1m 18.3m 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 Millions Dem Regress Current Path 4th Wave

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SCOPE

1. The International Futures forecasting system (IFs) 2. Four datasets on democracy 3. The history of democracy and current status in Africa 4. What does democracy contribute? 5. Scenarios for the future: Africa and Ethiopia 6. Video 7. Conclusion

@jakkiecilliers

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CONCLUSION 1

Over the long term democracy provides

  • A mechanism to check power of elite
  • A separation of powers
  • Protection of human rights and the rule of law

Sustained growth at higher levels of income likely require democracy to continue to grow. But Substantive democracies emerge over time and require significant resources (and growth) to mature

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CONCLUSION 2

  • Democracy is not the dominant form of governance in

Africa but positive trend - demand is high

  • Likely a global democratic regression – what will happen

in Africa?

  • The “electoral” aspect of democracy improves human

development and growth

  • Aspects related to citizen empowerment do not
  • It is possible to quantify the impact of democracy on

growth and human development

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