Impact of recent physics changes on IFS Impact of recent physics - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Impact of recent physics changes on IFS Impact of recent physics - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 25, 2023 270 likes •499 views

Impact of recent physics changes on IFS Impact of recent physics changes on IFS forecast performance forecast performance CY25R3 Y25R3 The recent physics changes concerne: Change in convective trigger (see former presentations)

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Impact of recent physics changes on IFS Impact of recent physics changes on IFS forecast performance – forecast performance – CY25R3 Y25R3

The recent physics changes concerne: Change in convective trigger (see former presentations) – Big impact everywhere (mostly positive – but some negative not to avoid) Rewrite of cloud scheme (changes time evolution of T error growth) In the following show examples on “Consequences of Grid point storm problem” –”American problem Analysis Increments Tropical cyclone Forecast Forecast scores – comparison to Synop

Together with M. Köhler, A. Tompkins, A. Beljaars, M. Miller and Operations Dept. (G. V Grijn, A. Gelli, F. Grazini)

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Mass (Z) and wind increments N.America Analysis – First Guess

  • F. Grazzini
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Data Usage

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Mass (Z) and wind increments S.America Analysis – First Guess

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Convective and stratiforme Precipitation – Cyclone Lilly

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First Guess and Analysis – Cyclone Maysak FG oper FG esuite ANA oper ANA esuite

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Cyclone Statistics Gerald v.d. Grijn

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SYNOP verification Mai 2002 : Cloud Cover

  • per

esuite

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SYNOP: Mai 2002 : Precip

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Verification against own Analysis: Aug-Nov 2002

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Verification against own Analysis: Aug-Nov. 2002

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Verification against own Analysis: Aug-Nov. 2002

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Anomaly Correlation 1000 hPa: Aug-Nov. 2002 NH SH E.Asia

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Case studies, starting with same Analysis OBS CAPE

  • per

new

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Case studies, starting with same Analysis OBS CAPE

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new

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Analysis statistics with Temps Standard: blue

  • Incr. Entrainm: black
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Analysis statistics with Satellite: SSMI Standard: blue

  • Incr. Entrainm: black
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Oper Test suite incr.entr T verification against ERA40, august 2002

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Oper Test suite incr.entr U verification against ERA40, august 2002

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  • per

esuite T+18 T+24 Spurious Cyclone Developmement

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Model changes had mostly positive impact Improvement in Rainfall over Land, tropical winds, cyclone development, Analysis Increments –Grid point storms (American problem) Tropical variability and MJO has still to be evaluated – better use

  • f TRMM DATA

But probaly convection still overactive over West Pacific – 100 hPa Z and T increments -> slope of 100 hPa T error is determined by cloud-radiation interaction (cloud scheme) Nota: any change in convection/cloud must be carefully evaluated as Something will always degrade +/- error evolution Any change in model physics becomes particularly effective through analysis Cycle – Forecats only is quite conservative

Brief Summary Brief Summary – CY25R3 CY25R3

(more on this this afternoon)