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Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd. April 2014 Corporate Presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd. April 2014 Corporate Presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd. April 2014 Corporate Presentation WWW.ZARGON.CA Advisory Forward-Looking Information Forward Looking Statements This presentation offers our assessment of Zargon's future plans and operations as at April 1,
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Advisory – Forward-Looking Information
Forward‐Looking Statements ‐ This presentation offers our assessment of Zargon's future plans and operations as at April 1, 2014, and contains forward‐looking
- statements. Such statements are generally identified by the use of words such as "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "forecast", "may", "will", "project",
"should", "plan", "intend", "believe" and similar expressions (including the negatives thereof). In particular, this presentation contains forward‐looking information as to Zargon’s corporate strategy and business plans, Zargon’s oil exploration project inventory and development plans, Zargon’s dividend policy and the amount of future dividends, future commodity prices, Zargon’s expectation for uses of funds from financing, Zargon’s capital expenditure program and the allocation and the sources of funding thereof, Zargon’s cash flow and dividend model and the assumptions contained therein and the results there from, anticipated payout rates, 2014 and beyond production and other guidance and the assumptions contained therein, estimated tax pools, Zargon’s reserve estimates, Zargon’s hedging policies, Zargon’s drilling, development and exploitation plans and projects and the results there from and Zargon’s ASP project plans 2014 and beyond, plans to sell un‐ strategic assets, the source of funding for our 2014 and beyond capital program including ASP, capital expenditures, costs and the results therefrom. By their nature, forward‐looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, some of which are beyond our control, including such as those relating to results of
- perations and financial condition, general economic conditions, industry conditions, changes in regulatory and taxation regimes, volatility of commodity prices,
escalation of operating and capital costs, currency fluctuations, the availability of services, imprecision of reserve estimates, geological, technical, drilling and processing problems, environmental risks, weather, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, stock market volatility, the ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources and competition from other industry participants for, among other things, capital, services, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel. Risks are described in more detail in our Annual Information Form, which is available on our website. Forward‐ looking statements are provided to allow investors to have a greater understanding of our business. You are cautioned that the assumptions, including, among other things, future oil and natural gas prices; future capital expenditure levels; future production levels; future exchange rates; the cost of developing and expanding our assets; our ability to obtain equipment in a timely manner to carry out development activities; our ability to market our oil and natural gas successfully to current and new customers; the impact of increasing competition; our ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms; and our ability to add production and reserves through our development and acquisition activities used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward‐looking statements. Our actual results, performance, or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward‐looking statements. We can give no assurance that any of the events anticipated will transpire or occur, or if any of them do, what benefits we will derive from them. The forward‐looking information contained in this presentation is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. Our policy for updating forward‐looking statements is that Zargon disclaims, except as required by law, any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or
- therwise.
Barrels of Oil Equivalent ‐ Natural gas is converted to a barrel of oil equivalent (“Boe”) using six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. In certain circumstances, natural gas liquid volumes have been converted to a thousand cubic feet equivalent (“Mcfe”) on the basis of one barrel of natural gas liquids to six thousand cubic feet of gas. Boes and Mcfes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of one barrel to six thousand cubic feet of natural gas is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion ratio on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. Estimated reserve values disclosed in this presentation do not represent fair market value. Discovered Petroleum Initially‐In‐Place (“DPIIP”) is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion of discovered petroleum initially in place includes production, reserves, and contingent resources; the remainder is unrecoverable. The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and the change during that year in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year.
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Zargon: Core Attributes
Long‐lived Oil Assets Long‐lived Oil Assets Oil Exploitation Oil Exploitation Dividend Paying Dividend Paying
- 6,630 boe/d (Q1 2014 guidance)
- 4,300 bbl/d stable oil exploitation base
- 75+ prospective oil exploitation locations
- Exciting Little Bow ASP tertiary recovery project
provides years of oil production growth
- 21.0 Mmbbl of 2P oil reserves (12.4 yr. rli)
- 68% of 2P oil reserves are developed
producing reserves
- Compared to peers, very low base oil
production decline rates (less than 14%/yr.)
- Payout ratio of 35% (2013 w/o DRIP)
- Yield of 8.3% (based on share price of $8.65)
- $344 million in dividends/distributions paid
- ver history
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Zargon: Asset Description
Little Bow ASP Tertiary Oil Recovery Project Little Bow ASP Tertiary Oil Recovery Project Conventional “pressure supported” oil Conventional “pressure supported” oil Other Non‐Strategic Other Non‐Strategic
Conventional Pressure Supported (Waterflood) Oil Properties:
- Produce 4,135 bbl/d (Q4 2013) of very low decline oil,
- Provide substantial inventory of low risk oil
exploitation wells to offset low decline,
- Support dividend through the rest of the decade.
Little Bow ASP Enhanced Recovery Project:
- Phase 1, now fully operational,
- ASP oil projects (phases 1‐4) will provide oil
production growth into the next decade,
- Scalable technology that can be ultimately used for
- ther fields.
Other Non‐Strategic Assets:
- Producing 330 bbl/d and 11.02 mmcf/d of lower
netback production in Q4 2013,
- Properties have “atrophied” in recent years, as capital
was allocated to core assets,
- Willing to consider the sale of these assets.
5
Forecast Oil Production Trends
- Oil production base declines at less than 14% per year. McDaniel proved and probable
developed producing case estimates a 15% decline (2015 versus 2014).
- Drilling increment assumes an annual $35 million conventional budget (18 net oil wells in
2014).
- Historical data identifies the effect of the property sales that were used to fund the ASP
project.
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Q1 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2015 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4
Oil Production (bbl/day)
History Estimate Drilling Increment Base Prod. @ 14% decline ASP Phase 1 &2 increment Base production and drilling increment are funded by annual $35 million conventional (non ASP) capital budget.
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Zargon Overview
(As at April 1, 2014 unless otherwise stated)
Capitalization – Toronto Stock Exchange: Symbols: ZAR; ZAR.DB – Common Shares Outstanding: 30.12 million (basic) – Market Capitalization: $261 million ($8.65 per share) (1) – Net Debt at Dec. 31, 2013: $116 million Historical Returns – Returns in dividends and distributions: $344 million ($17.36 per share) since inception – Total Equity Investment since inception: $210 million Dividend & Yield – Annualized Current Dividend: $0.72 per share – Yield at current share price: 8.3% (1) 2013 Production – Equivalent: 7,468 boe/d – Oil: 4,870 bbl/d (65% of production) – Gas: 15.59 mmcf/d
(1) Based on a monthly dividend rate of $0.06/share and using the April 1, 2014 closing share price of $8.65.
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2013 Financial Highlights
- Financially Strong
– $165.0 million bank line with approximately $40 million drawn at December 31, 2013. – $57.5 million Convertible Debenture maturing in 2017, yielding 6% annually. – Net debt at December 31, 2013 (including bank debt, debentures and working capital deficiency) is $116 million; leaving over $100 million of available credit.
- 2013 Results
– Funds Flow from Operations, $1.95 per basic share.
- $58.48 million
– Dividends Paid, $0.72 per basic share ($0.06 per month).
- $20.35 million (after DRIP)
– Payout ratio of 35% based on 2013 funds flow; (37% before DRIP). – Commencing September 2013, DRIP program was suspended.
- 2013 Capital Program
– Conventional Spending, $41 million. – Little Bow ASP Spending, $35 million (long term facility construction). – Net Property Dispositions, $34 million. – Net Capital Program, $42 million.
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2014 Objectives
- Zargon’s 2014 objectives are:
– Finish the commissioning of the Little Bow ASP project on budget, with first chemical injections occurring by the end of the 2014 first quarter. (completed) Deliver Little Bow Phase 1 ASP operational and production targets of an incremental 350 barrels of oil per day by year end (increasing to a 2015 average rate of 900 barrels of oil per day). – Finalize the design of the Little Bow Phase 2 ASP project and advance the Little Bow Phase 3 and 4 ASP engineering studies. – Deliver a consistent dividend of $0.06 per common share per month. – Execute a continuing property divestiture program designed to high‐grade and concentrate the Company’s asset portfolio on our core oil exploitation projects. – Direct a high‐graded oil exploitation program focused on our five long‐life low‐ decline oil exploitation properties (Williston Basin, Taber, Bellshill Lake, Little Bow non‐ASP and Hamilton Lake). – Maintain a strong balance sheet.
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Oil Exploitation Properties
(Conventional Oil Exploitation Projects)
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Conventional Oil Exploitation Projects Current Drilling Inventory
Large inventory of oil exploitation opportunities 75+ Total Available Elswick, Midale, Weyburn, Ralph, Steelman, Mackobee Expand & enhance waterflood Develop Glauconite pool Increase fluid withdrawal Multi‐frac horizontals Project Horizontal drainage wells in relatively tight reservoirs; pressure support required in some cases 25+ Williston Basin Expand waterflood 5 Taber Implement waterflood concurrently with development 10 Bellshill Lake Killam Facility optimization; infills and step‐outs 10 Bellshill Lake Will require waterflood re‐implementation, large upside 25+ Hamilton Lake Comments Net Locations Property The existing oil exploitation well inventory will support stable oil production volumes for many years. The 18 well 2014 conventional oil exploitation drilling budget includes 9 Williston Basin, 4 Taber and 5 Bellshill Lake oil wells.
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Long-Life, Low-Decline Oil Production Base
Severe Breakup Spring 2011
20.3% 9% 2012 13.1% Average 35.0% 10% 2013 15.3% 12% 2011 6.8% 9% 2010 15.2% 5% 2009 12.9% 3% 2008 8.0% 53% Base 2014 Decline Rate Dec 2013 Contribution Production Wedge
- Vintage Zargon operated production plot highlights Zargon’s low‐decline oil production
decline of 13%.
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Gross W.I. Oil Production Rate ( bbl/day )
2013 Additions 2012 Additions 2011 Additions 2010 Additions 2009 Additions 2008 Additions Base Production
Zargon Corporate Decline Analysis ‐ Total Oil Production Rate
Data to Dec 31, 2013
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Conventional Assets: Low Corporate Decline and High PDP Reserves
Source: Peters & Co. Limited, Intermediate & Junior Universe (March 17, 2014) Generally reflects 2013 year end reserve results
10 20 30 40 50
Average Annual Decline Rate (%)
Average 32%
Zargon
20 40 60 80 100
Proved Producing Reserves (% of P+P)
Average 32%
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Canadian Alkaline Surfactant Polymer (ASP) Projects
- 9 Canadian ASP Projects in
- peration
- 4 additional projects have
regulatory approval
- Major operators: Husky,
CNRL, Cenovus
- Significant implementation
in Saskatchewan: favourable EOR royalty treatment
- Technology utilized in Asia
since 1980’s
Edmonton Lethbridge Calgary Medicine Hat Grande Prairie Mooney (Black Pearl) 2011 Coleville (Penn West) 2011 Suffield (Cenovus) 2007 Taber South (Husky) 2006 Taber (Husky) 2008 Grand Forks (CNRL) Strathmore (Terrex) Battrum (Hyak Energy) Fosterton (Husky) 2012 Gull Lake (Husky) 2009 Instow (Talisman) 2007/11
Little Bow (Zargon)
Alberta Sask.
Bone Creek (Husky) Edmonton Lethbridge Calgary Medicine Hat Grande Prairie Mooney (Black Pearl) 2011 Coleville (Penn West) 2011 Suffield (Cenovus) 2007 Taber South (Husky) 2006 Taber (Husky) 2008 Grand Forks (CNRL) Strathmore (Terrex) Battrum (Hyak Energy) Fosterton (Husky) 2012 Gull Lake (Husky) 2009 Instow (Talisman) 2007/11
Little Bow (Zargon)
Alberta Sask.
Bone Creek (Husky)
In Progress Scheme Approved
2013
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ASP Enhanced Oil Recovery Process
Process: Dilute concentrations of chemicals (Alkali, Surfactant and Polymer) in water are injected into an existing oil pool to “scrub” out oil that waterflooding alone could not recover. Objective Wash out more oil from an existing reservoir.
- Surfactants (Detergent):
Mobilizes trapped oil
- Alkali:
Increases effectiveness of the surfactant
- Polymer (Thickener):
Thickened water helps sweep oil from the reservoir
Injector Producer Water Water Injector Producer Polymer Solution Increased Contact Volume Polymer Solution Increased Contact Volume
a) Water Injection b) Polymer Injection
Rock Rock
a) Water Injection: More than half of oil is “trapped” b) Alkali / Surfactant Mobilizes trapped oil
Water Injection Trapped Oil Droplet Water Rock Rock Mobilized Oil Droplet Alkali & Surfactant Solution
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ASP Chemical Flooding – Injection Sequence
1 – ASP Injection A Blend of Alkali, Surfactant & Polymer mobilizes trapped oil 2 ‐ Polymer “Push” Polymer displaces mobilized oil to producing wells 3‐ Terminal Waterflood Completes the Displacement
OIL BANK ASP POLYMER WATER
Little Bow Phase 1 & 2 Injection Schedule Phase 1
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 2
ASP Polymer
2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Little Bow ASP Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) With Proven Technology
Little Bow ASP: Phase 1&2 Development
Little Bow
Alberta
15-18W4
Zargon Land Zargon Wells Zargon Land Zargon Wells Phase 1 Area Phase 2 Area Phase 1 Area Phase 2 Area Little Bow Mannville “P” Pool Little Bow Mannville “I” Pool
- EOR in a mature, southern Alberta Waterflood
- Phased Development
- Phases 1 & 2 Project Capital: $62 Million (excludes chemical)
– $42 million incurred in 2012 and 13 – $8 million in 2014 to Phase 1 Startup – $12 million in 2015 and 2016 (Phase 2)
- Current Little Bow Oil: 400 bbl/d
- First ASP Injection:
March 2014
- Zargon Forecast Incremental Oil Rate:
2014 Exit: 350 bbl/d 2015 Avg: 900 bbl/d 2016 Avg: 1,550 bbl/d
- Zargon Forecast Incremental Oil Recovery:
5.2 Million Barrels (12% DOIIP)
- McDaniel Proved and Probable Incremental Oil Recovery:
4.5 Million Barrels (1.5 Million Barrels Proved)
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ACCOMPLISHMENTS
- ASP facility, oil battery and field construction complete
and online in March 2014
- $50 million capital construction and startup cost
(compared to November 2012 estimate of $47 million)
- March 2014 first injection (compared to November
2012 estimate of December 2013)
Little Bow ASP Project Milestones
Photo Courtesy STRIKE Energy Services
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Little Bow ASP Analog ASP Project: Husky Taber Mannville “B”
Taber Production History
Sep-12 Sep-11 Sep-10 Sep-09 Sep-08 Sep-07 Sep-06 Sep-05
16 % R.F. 16 % R.F. 14.5 % R.F. (Husky Application) 14 % R.F. 14 % R.F. 12 % R.F. (Zargon Base Case) 12 % R.F. 10 % R.F. 10 % R.F. 8 % R.F. (Zargon PV10 Breakeven) 8 % R.F.
10 100 1,000 10,000
15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 Cumulative Oil Production (mbbl) Oil Production (bbl/d) 1% 10% 100% 1000% Oil Cut (%)
Data to July-2013
Oil Cut (%) Oil Rate, bbl/d First ASP Injection May, 2006
? ?
ERCB DPIIP = 43.1 mmbbl ASP Recovery
- Ult. Recovery *
% mmbbl mmbbl 8 3.4 20.5 10 4.3 21.3 12 5.2 22.2 14 6.0 23.0 16 6.9 23.9 * Ultimate Recovery where ASP flood returns to pre‐ASP levels
Taber Mannville “B” ASP Project
- Most mature Canadian ASP Project; Husky Operated
- Same geological setting, oil quality, reservoir size and was at same
state of depletion as Zargon’s Little Bow Pool
- First ASP Injection: 2006
- Incremental recovery is greater than 12%
Little Bow Mannville “I” and “P” Pools (Zargon) Taber Mannville “B” Pool (Husky)
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- Reservoir simulation model
used to optimize ASP flood design
- Multiple scenarios:
‐ ASP chemical formulation ‐ Drilling & workover locations ‐ Pattern design
- Optimized case with increased
polymer bank predicts 6.5 million barrels incremental ASP oil recovery
- Using a conservative 5.2
million barrels for economics which equates to a 12% incremental recovery factor
Little Bow ASP Development Optimization Study (Phases 1 & 2)
Oil Recovery
1,276 cases run
Base Waterflood Recovery
ASP Oil Recovery (mbbl)
McDaniel 2013 Year End: 4,500 Zargon 2013 Optimized: 6,500 Zargon 2013 Economics: 5,200
ASP Oil Recovery
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Little Bow ASP Phases 1 & 2 Post Start-up Zargon Economics (BTax)
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 BOPD
Little Bow ASP: Phases 1&2 Production
Base W.F. Phase 1 Phase 2
12.1% Recovery 5.2 mmbbl
Phase 1 Phase 2 Base Waterflood $ 85/bbl Flat Pricing (at Edmonton)
(1) Injectant booked as Capital (Injectant booked as Opex: F&D =2.26 $/bbl, Netback = 35 $/bbl, Recycle Ratio = 15) (2) Phase 2 capital. Incurred in 2015 and 2016 (3) Prior estimate $77 Million. Increase due to US/Cdn Exchange assumptions
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 BOPD
Little Bow ASP: Phases 1&2 Production
Base W.F. Phase 1 Phase 2
12.1% Recovery 5.2 mmbbl
Phase 1 Phase 2 Base Waterflood
Phases 1 & 2 IRR (%) 72.4 PV10 ($ millions) 83.2 F&D ($/bbl) (1) 17.7 Netback ($/bbl) (1) 50.4 Recycle Ratio (1) 2.8 Oil Reserves (mbbl) 5,200 Capital ($ millions) (2) 12 Chemical ($ millions) (3) 81
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Little Bow ASP Upside Potential
Little Bow ASP Cumulative Undiscounted Cash Flow (Go Forward)
(Net Zargon WI - Before Tax)
- 100
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Millions of Dollars
Little Bow ASP Phases 1&2 Little Bow ASP Upside Phases 3&4 Development +2% DOIIP Recovery +10$/bbl Edmonton Price Sask EOR Royalty Cumulative at Base Oil Price
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2014 Capital Programs, Dividends and Cash Flows Program Funding Considerations
- 2014 Capital Budget (February 2014 Press Release)
Conventional Capital Program $35 million ASP Phase 1 Capital to Complete $ 7 million ASP Phase 1 Chemical Costs $ 9 million Total Capital $51 million
- 2014 Funds Flow after Dividends (Two Examples for Illustration Purposes)
Funds Flow Examples $50 million $65 million Cash Dividends (DRIP is suspended) ($22 million) ($22 million) Available from Funds Flow $28 million $43 million Capital Requirements exceeding Funds Flow $23 million $8 million
- 2014 Funding Shortfall provided by Property Sales and Additional Debt
2013 Year End Debt $116 million $116 million Property Sales (Proposed) $5 million $5 million Additional Debt $18 million $3 million Total Sales and Debt $23 million $8 million Calculated 2014 Year End Debt $134 million $119 million
– Calculated 2014 year end debt levels represent 60% or less of the available debenture and bank lines of $222.5 million. – In 2015‐17, significant increases in Little Bow ASP cash flow will permit debt retirement.
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Production Guidance (March 2014 Update)
- Oil and Liquids Guidance:
‐ Q1 2013 5,150 barrels per day (5,113 bbl/d reported) ‐ Q2 2013 4,800 barrels per day (4,930 bb/d reported) ‐ Q3 2013 4,650 barrels per day (4,816 bbl/d reported) ‐ Q4 2013 4,550 barrels per day (4,625 bbl/d reported) ‐ H1 2014 4,300 barrels per day (incorporates Q4 2013 property sales) ‐ 2014 Exit 4,650 barrels per day (incorporates 350 bbls/d of ASP production)
- Natural Gas Guidance:
‐ Q1 2013 15.6 million cubic feet per day (15.2 mmcf/d reported) ‐ Q2 2013 15.0 million cubic feet per day (14.8 mmcf/d reported) ‐ Q3 2013 14.7 million cubic feet per day (16.5 mmcf/d reported) ‐ Q4 2013 15.0 million cubic feet per day (15.9 mmcf/d reported) ‐ Q1 2014 14.0 million cubic feet per day (incorporates Q4 2013 property sales) ‐ 2014 Avg. 13.5 million cubic feet per day (dependant on magnitude and timing of property sales)
- 2014 Cost Assumptions:
‐ Operating average approximately $18.00 per boe (includes transportation and ASP costs) ‐ G&A average approximately $4.50 per boe
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Net Asset Value Calculations at 2013 Year End
NAV Calculation (Dec 31, 2013) Proved + Prob. McDaniel Est. (PVBT 10%) $ 469 million
Undeveloped Land $ 17 million Deduct Est. Net Working Capital & Bank/Debenture Debt ‐ $ 116 million Net Asset Value $ 370 million
Zargon Proved + Prob. Net Asset Value $12.29 per basic share
6.03 181 280 PDP 8.36 251 351 P+PDP 12.29 370 469 Proved & Prob. 7.40 223 322 Total Proved Net Asset Value ($/basic share) Net Asset Value ($ million) McDaniel PVBT 10% ($ million) Reserve Category
(McDaniel January 1, 2014 price forecast and 30.09 million basic Zargon shares as of December 31, 2013)
2013 Year End Reserves – (Long‐life, low‐decline producing oil)
2P Equivalent Reserves: 27.7 million boe (RLI: 10.4 years)
Oil Reserves:
- P+P
21.0 million bbl (RLI: 12.4 years)
- P+P Developed Producing
14.2 million bbl (RLI: 8.4 years)
- Proved Developed Producing
10.6 million bbl (RLI: 6.2 years)
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Net Asset Value Breakdown:
McDaniel Proved and Probable Reserves (2013 Yr. End)
$ 121 $ 83 FDC Capital ($million) $ 8 n/a $ 8 FDC Capital ($million) $ 30 $ 8 $ 1 $ 10 $ 3 $ 8 FDC Capital ($million) 1.72 4.48 $ 66 nil nil Subtotal – ASP
- McD. Gas
Res.(bcf)
- McD. Oil Res.
(mmbbl) Q4/13 Gas Prod. (mmcf/d) PV 10 Asset Value ($million) Q4/13 Oil
- Prod. (bbl/d)
Little Bow ASP Assets n/a n/a n/a 1.56 160 Impact of Sales & Prior Period Adj’s. in Q4 $ 486 40.26 20.97 15.90 4,625 Grand Total $ 62 2.26 2.36 0.60 754 Bellshill (incl. Killam) $ 58 29.86 1.03 12.58 490 Subtotal – Other $ 17 From Seaton Jordan Report (230 thousand net acres) Undeveloped Land $ 41 29.86 1.03 11.02 330 Other Oil & Gas PV10 Asset Value ($million)
- McD. Gas
Res.(bcf)
- McD. Oil Res.
(mmbbl) Q4/13 Gas Prod. (mmcf/d) Q4/13 Oil
- Prod. (bbl/d)
Other Assets $ 362 8.68 15.46 3.32 4,135 Subtotal – Core $ 15 3.02 0.70 1.28 182 Hamilton Lake $ 48 2.25 2.40 0.99 580 Little Bow Conventional $ 66 0.20 2.35 0.10 812 Taber South $ 171 0.95 7.65 0.35 1,807 Williston Basin PV10 Asset Value ($million)
- McD. Gas
- Res. (bcf)
- McD. Oil Res.
(mmbbl) Q4/13 Gas Prod. (mmcf/d) Q4/13 Oil
- Prod. (bbl/d)
Conventional Pressure Supported Properties
Core conventional property value of $362 million less December 31/13 net debt of $116 million leaves $246 million or $8.17 per Zargon share. Little Bow ASP and other assets add $124 million of value, or $4.12/share; resulting in a total net asset value of $12.29 per share (30.09 million shares).
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Key Takeaways at Current Share Price
(April 1, 2014)
- Zargon is committed to the current $0.06 per share monthly dividend.
– Current 8.3% dividend yield is protected by oil hedges, low payout ratios and a strong balance sheet. – During the 2013 “ASP heavy spend period”, Zargon bridged the spending gap between cash flows and capital expenditures by property sales. Now, the 2014 ASP construction capital is completed and we look forward to significant ASP free cash flow in 2015.
- The Little Bow ASP project provides significant oil production per share
growth for the 2015‐2017 period.
– Little Bow phase 1‐2 production rates are forecast to peak in 2018. Phases 1‐4 peak rates are in 2021. ASP project success could lead to significant follow‐on projects at Little Bow and other Southern Alberta properties.
- Zargon shares represent good value at the current share price of $8.65 per
share.
– Investors buy Zargon at only a very small premium to the proved and probable net asset value for Zargon’s conventional pressure supported “waterflood” oil assets. Very little value is attributed to the Little Bow ASP project or the other non‐ strategic assets.
WWW.ZARGON.CA
Appendices
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Little Bow ASP Post Startup Zargon Economics Phases 1 & 2 Price Sensitivity: Before Tax PV10
Little Bow Field Realization = Edmonton Light less $18/bbl
BTax PV10 vs. Price 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 $65.00 $75.00 $85.00 $95.00 $105.00 Edmonton Light ($/bbl) PV10 ( $ MM )
Little Bow ASP Phases I & 2
- Sask. Type
EOR Royalty Base Price
29
Little Bow ASP Development Expansion: Phases 1-4
* ERCB DOIIP Data
ZAR W.I. (%) W.I. DOIIP* (mmbbl) Phases 1 & 2 LB “I” Pool 100 31 LB “P” Pool 100 8 Followup U&W Unit 75 21 MM Unit 100 5 C8C / X8X 81 7 Total 72
Little Bow Phase 1 - 4 Injection Schedule Phase 1
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 2
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 3
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 4
ASP Polymer
2026 2027 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
30
Little Bow ASP Phases 1 - 4 Post Start-up Economics (BTax)
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 BOPD
ASP Development Forecast - Phases 1-4
Base W.F. Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4
Zargon W.I. Production
Phases 1&2 12% Recovery Phases 3&4 11% Recovery (1) Injectant booked as Capital (2) Phase 2 capital. Incurred in 2015 and 2016 (3) Prior estimate $77 Million. Increase due to US/Cdn Exchange assumptions
Working Interest Capital and Chemical Costs ($ Millions) Phases 1&2 Phases 3&4 Capital 12 (2) 16 Chemical 81 (3) 64 Little Bow ASP: Project Economics
Phases 1&2 Phases 1‐4 IRR (%) 72.4 68.8 PV10 ($ millions) 83.2 111.8 F&D ($/bbl) (1) 17.7 19.5 Netback ($/bbl) (1) 50.4 51.6 Recycle Ratio (1) 2.8 2.6 Reserves (mbbl) 5,200 8,800
85 $/bbl Flat Pricing (at Edmonton) Zargon Net W.I.
31
Williston Basin Production Trends & Orientation Map
Estevan
North Dakota Saskatchewan Manitoba
Haas Truro Mackobee Coulee Frys Steelman Ralph Elswick Weyburn Workman
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Producing Oil Rate (bbl/day)
2013 Additions 2012 Additions 2011 Additions 2010 Additions 2009 Additions 2008 Additions Base Wells
Core Property Group ‐ Williston Basin Gross W.I. Basis
Ongoing Activities
- Exploit long life low decline pools with
horizontal wells and waterflood enhancements.
2014 Activities
- Drill 9 additional horizontal wells.
- Upgrade 2 central batteries (Weyburn
and Mackobee Coulee).
- Modify and enhance exisiting waterflood
projects (Steelman and Ralph).
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Taber South Sunburst Hz Oil Development & Waterflood
Ongoing Activities
- Exploit long life pool with horizontal wells and
waterflood.
2014 Activities
- Drill 3 additional horizontal wells.
- Convert 2 additional wells to water injection.
- Increase water handling capacity at 14‐11 battery.
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Producing Oil Rate (bbl/day)
2012 Additions 2011 Additions 2010 Additions 2009 Additions 2008 Additions Base Wells
Core Property Group ‐ Taber Area Gross W.I. Basis
33
Greater Bellshill Lake Area Production Trends & Orientation Map
Ongoing Activities
- Expanded Bellshill Lake fluid handling capacity has provided
2013 and 2014 pumping upgrade opportunities.
- Bellshill Killam pilot waterflood commenced operations in Q4
2013. 2014 Activities
- 4 vertical and 1 horizontal wells budgeted at Bellshill Lake.
200 400 600 800 1,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Producing Oil Rate (bbl/day)
2012 Additions 2011 Additions 2010 Additions 2009 Additions 2008 Additions Base Wells
Core Property Group ‐ Bellshill Lake Group
2013 Q4 Drilling Program
Bellshill Lake Bellshill Killam
Pilot Waterflood Commenced 2013 Q4
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Hamilton Lake Viking Oil Unit Horizontal Drilling – Large oil resource opportunity
100 200 300 400 500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Producing Oil Rate (bbl/day)
2013 Additions 2012 Additions 2011 Additions 2010 Additions 2009 Additions 2008 Additions Base Wells
Core Property Group ‐ Hamilton Lake
Gross W.I. Basis
3 Wells drilled in Q4/2012
Zargon HZ Wells Q4/2012 Horizontal MultiFrac Test Wells
Ongoing Activities
Waterflood was prematurely suspended in the 1980’s (160 mm bbl DOIIP, 31 °API crude). Initially drilled 5 multi‐frac horizontal wells in 2011 and H1 2012 with encouraging results. Q4 2012 program was not successful. Technical review underway to unlock potential; will return to the project in 2015.
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Hedging Strategy and Current Hedges
Zargon uses hedges to help fund dividends and capital programs during periods of lower commodity prices. Our policies allow for the forward sale of:
– up to a 70 percent maximum of estimated oil production volumes for the next 12 months. Then 60 percent for the following 12 months and 50 percent for the final 6 month period. – not to exceed a 30‐month period.
Current Forward Oil Sales:
Q1 2014: 3,000 bbl/d at $93.22 US/bbl (WTI) Q2 2014: 3,000 bbl/d at $92.61 US/bbl (WTI) Q3 2014: 2,200 bbl/d at $90.51 US/bbl (WTI) and 400 bbl/d at $99.60 Cdn/bbl (WTI) Q4 2014: 2,200 bbl/d at $90.51 US/bbl (WTI) and 400 bbl/d at $99.60 Cdn/bbl (WTI) Q1 2015: 400 bbl/d at $91.73 US/bbl (WTI)
Current Forward Natural Gas Sales:
Q1 2014: 6,000 gj/d at $3.33/gj (AECO) Q2 2014: 9,000 gj/d at $3.69/gj (AECO) Q3 2014: 9,000 gj/d at $3.69/gj (AECO) Q4 2014: 7,000 gj/d at $4.01/gj (AECO) Q1 2015: 6,000 gj/d at $4.25/gj (AECO)
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