YOUNGS FARM AAWS MODELING May 27, 2016 1 INITIAL MODELING ADWR - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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YOUNGS FARM AAWS MODELING May 27, 2016 1 INITIAL MODELING ADWR Sever & Transfer D&O 651.36 afa 12 POD wells withdrawing surface water PrAMA Model at ADWR direction Run PrAMA Model for 100 yrs POD wells capable

SLIDE 1

YOUNG’S FARM AAWS MODELING

May 27, 2016

SLIDE 2

INITIAL MODELING

∗ ADWR Sever & Transfer D&O – 651.36 afa ∗ 12 POD wells withdrawing surface water ∗ PrAMA Model at ADWR direction ∗ Run PrAMA Model for 100 yrs ∗ POD wells capable of supplying 651.36 afa for 100 yrs.

SLIDE 3

PrAMA Model Domain

3 3

SLIDE 4

MODIFICATIONS TO PrAMA MODEL

∗ Update streamflow inputs to include seasonal runoff from multiple tributaries (USGS Basin Characterization Model, BCM) ∗ Head Dependent Boundary at outflow ∗ 100 yr projection of historic 21 yr and 52 yr streamflows and mountain front recharge (MFR) volumes

SLIDE 5

Upper Agua Fria Sub-basin

5 5

SLIDE 6

Digital Elevation Model

6 6

SLIDE 7

Stream Delineations

Agua Fria River 7 7 Humboldt Gage

SLIDE 8

Watersheds

8 8 Agua Fria River Humboldt Gage

SLIDE 9

BCM RUNOFF AVERAGES

Lynx Creek 2,190 AFA

Green Gulch 270 AFA

Chap. Gulch

312 AFA

Yaeger Canyon 1,430 AFA Grapevine Gulch 640 AFA 9 9 Agua Fria River Humboldt Gage

SLIDE 10

Calibration Check: Agua Fria Sub-basin Heads

10 PrAMA Model SGC Model RMSE / Range: 5.5% RMSE / Range: 3.5%

SLIDE 11

Stream Inflows

PrAMA Model SGC Model Humboldt Gage Flows Flow (cfs) Flow (cfs) Flow (cfs)

SLIDE 12

Stream Outflows

PrAMA Model SGC Model Humboldt Gage Flows Flow (cfs) Flow (cfs) Flow (cfs)

SLIDE 13

Predicted Stream Flow

13 Original Model SGC Model – 21 yr Historical Runoff and MFR

Historical | Predictive
Historical | Predictive
Flow (cfs)

Flow (cfs)

SLIDE 14

Predicted Stream Flow

14 SGC Model – 52 yr Historical Runoff and MFR

Historical | Predictive
Historical | Predictive
Original Model

Flow (cfs) Flow (cfs)