Work rking Group 1 10:30 13:30, Friday 12 th December 2014 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Work rking Group 1 10:30 13:30, Friday 12 th December 2014 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Transport Energy Taskforce Work rking Group 1 10:30 13:30, Friday 12 th December 2014 National Farmers Unions Offices, Kings Building, Smith Square, London, SW1P 3JJ Agenda 1. Introduction by chair 2. Minutes of modelling

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SLIDE 1

Transport Energy Taskforce Work rking Group 1

10:30 – 13:30, Friday 12th December 2014 National Farmers’ Union’s Offices, King’s Building, Smith Square, London, SW1P 3JJ

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SLIDE 2

Agenda

  • 1. Introduction by chair
  • 2. Minutes of modelling workshop and matters arising
  • 3. Discussion of WG1 Terms of Reference
  • 4. Presentation of 2030 transport fuel demand scenarios
  • 5. 2020 scenarios modelling update
  • 6. Presentation and discussion of initial 2030 biofuels options
  • 7. Conclusion
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SLIDE 3

1. What are the key UK and EU road transport decarbonisation modelling excercises? What do they tell us? 2. What are the outcomes of the DfT modelling and key assumptions? How do they compare to

  • ther modelling excercises?

3. How can the UK modelling be improved? What will it mean? 4. What are the options for decarbonising road transport in the UK? What relative role can they play? 5. What do we need to believe in? What are the uncertainties? 6. What are possible decarbonisation trajectories 2020, 2030 and beyond? What do they imply? 7. What do the options / trajectories considered mean in terms of sustainability? What are the potential benefits to the UK? 8. What needs to happen for the options / trajectories to be realised?

  • 3. Discussion of WG1 Terms of Reference
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SLIDE 4

4. . 2030 transport fuel demand scenarios

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SLIDE 5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

  • 00

10 20 30 40 50 60

tonnes of oil equivalent

Petrol - road Diesel - road Bioethanol - road Biodiesel - road Electricity - road Diesel - rail Electricity - rail Kerosene - aviation

Projected transport energy consumption by fuel - high abatement scenario (carbon plan 2011)

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SLIDE 6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Millions of vehicles

low medium high

20% 40% 50%

% new Vehicle Sales in 2030

Electric vehicle stock projections to 2030

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SLIDE 7

Bioenergy Strategy Scenario 1 optimal bioenergy allocation to 2050

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SLIDE 8

Bioenergy Strategy Scenario 2 (no CCS) optimal bioenergy allocation to 2050

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SLIDE 9

5. . 2020 Scenarios Modelling Update

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SLIDE 10

GHG Savings (MTCO2/yr) Costs (£m/yr) Crop %

2020 scenarios: 10% RED target with 0.5% advanced biofuel sub-target

746 506 1012 1760 1592 112 1519 1132 965 43 43 43 43 830 855 855 336 855 290 290 290 290 2 18 18 18 18 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

RTFO year 6 supply low waste medium waste high waste high waste + forced E10

Litres (millions)

Biomethane High blend crop ethanol Advanced ethanol Low blend crop ethanol Advanced biodiesel High blend crop biodiesel Low blend crop biodiesel Low blend waste biodiesel

E4.6 B3.2 E8.6 B10.2 E8.6 B7.4 E4.7 B6.1 E8.6 B5.5

3.1 MT £283m/year 3.59% 4.6 MT £284m/year 0.46% 1.8 MT £376m/year 5.74% 4.7 MT £267m/year 1.18% 2.2 MT £264m/year 1.33%

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6. . In Initial 2030 Biofuels Options

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1012 1960 1012 1960 1012 1960 948 715 715 1663 715 1206 258 721 721 1068 1068 1774 1774 347 347 156 156 156 156 156 156 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

medium waste high waste medium waste high waste medium waste high waste E10 E20 0.5% advanced sub-target

Litres (millions)

Low blend waste biodiesel Low blend crop biodiesel High blend crop biodiesel Advanced biodiesel Low blend crop ethanol Advanced ethanol High blend crop ethanol Biomethane

Possible 2030 scenarios – 8% renewable energy target

GHG Savings

(MTCO2/yr)

Costs (£m/yr) Crop % 0% 0% 0% 0% 2.6% 4.7% Advanced % 5.2% 3.1% 6.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5%

  • 504

248

  • 518
  • 186

292 143 8.5 7.7 8.3 7.9 5.4 3.2 E10 and E20 (zero crop) 0.5% sub-target

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7. . Conclusion

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What conclusions can be drawn from the modelling?

  • In all modelling scenarios considered there was a considerable

volume of diesel, petrol and jet fuel in 2030

  • Key known uncertainties include availability of waste fats and oils

(first gen biodiesel); and costs and availability of advanced fuels

  • Forecast decreasing petrol demand leads to decreasing E5/10

bioethanol blending opportunities

  • The primary constraint to achieving 8% without crops appears to be

advanced production capacity, esp for diesel, rather than feedstock availability.

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SLIDE 15

Questions and Next Steps

  • Are there other modelling exercises we should consider?
  • Are all of the scenarios feasible in terms of production?
  • What should we assume for advanced costs? What other sources of

data are available?

  • What should we assume for conventional biofuel costs? What other

sources of data are available?

  • How can the modelling be improved? Are there other scenarios we

should consider?

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SLIDE 16

Source for E4tech and Element Energy slides

  • E4 tech data presented can be accessed through their website at

http://www.e4tech.com/auto-fuel.html

  • Element energy data can be accessed at http://www.element-

energy.co.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Element- Energy-_-Fuels-roadmap_29May2014.pdf