SLIDE 1
Agenda
- Improving Demand-Supply Balance
- Transportation issues
- Infrastructure Developments
- Unforeseen events
- Increased Transparency
Winter Outlook 2007/8 Ofgem Seminar 2 October 2007 Network - - PDF document
Winter Outlook 2007/8 Ofgem Seminar 2 October 2007 Network - - PDF document
Winter Outlook 2007/8 Ofgem Seminar 2 October 2007 Network Operations Chris Train Agenda Improving Demand-Supply Balance Transportation issues Infrastructure Developments Unforeseen events Increased Transparency Gas Supply
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Gas Supply
UKCS supply decline more than offset by LNG
expansion
Milford Haven - Dragon reported by developers as
Q4 2007
All LNG is subject to risk of cargo diversion to US
and other markets
Price signals imply strong flows to Europe
Forward Prices 1st September 2007
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 p /th HH NBP Zee TTF
SLIDE 4
Balance - Peak Periods
200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 Peak day Very cold week Very cold month mcm/d
Short Medium Long IUK Interconnector LNG Imports BBL Norway UKCS Demand
SLIDE 5
Demand-Supply Balance - 1:50 winter
100 200 300 400 500 600 1 21 41 61 81 days mcm/d
DM Other NDM Domestic Supply Range Final View
SLIDE 6
Electricity
Plant margin 23% 0.3 GW new renewables in Scotland No demand growth LCPD – 1 January 2008 – no material impact ETS II starts 1 January 2008 Coal is preferred to gas throughout the winter Notified Unavailability at historic levels
SLIDE 7
Transportation Issues
Supply Pattern Easington Trade & Transfer Milford Haven
L o c k e rle y K in g s L y n n
E a s in g to n
Is le O f G ra in
B a c to n
P a n n a l N e th e r K e lle t 7 5 b a r o p e ra tio n 8 5 b a r o p e ra tio n 7 0 b a r o p e ra tio n In te rc o n n e c to r T e rm in a l C o m p re s s o r L N G S to ra g e R e g u la to r
E X IS T IN G A S S E T S N E W A S S E T S
N e w P ro p o s e d P ip e lin e s
B D C E A F G H
SLIDE 8
Developments
SLIDE 9
1 Milford Haven to Aberdulais + PRI 2 Felindre to Tirley + 2 PRIs 3 Wormington Multi-Junction Modifications
+ New Unit
4 Pannal to Nether Kellet 5 SW Reinforcement – Langage Power
Station
75 bar operation 85 bar operation 70 bar operation Interconnector Terminal Compressor LNG Storage Regulator
EXISTING ASSETS NEW ASSETS
New Proposed Pipelines
2007/08 NTS Reinforcement
1 2 3 4 5
SLIDE 10
75 bar operation 85 bar operation 70 bar operation Interconnector Terminal Compressor LNG Storage Regulator
EXISTING ASSETS NEW ASSETS
New Proposed Pipelines
2008/09 NTS Reinforcement
A Longtown PRI B Felindre Compressor C Churchover Multi-Junction Modifications +
New Unit
D Barton Stacey to Lockerley E Easington to Ganstead F Asselby to Pannal G Isle of Grain to Gravesend
A B C D E F G
SLIDE 11
Shocks
SLIDE 12
Gas Data Provision - MIPI
SLIDE 13
Electricity - Information Transparency
SLIDE 14
Winter Consultation Process
Within winter updates will be posted regularly on
National Grid website
Preliminary Winter 2008/9 Consultation in mid/late
May 2008. Responses sought by early July 2008
Ofgem/National Grid event summer 2008 Final Winter 2008/9 Consultation Report in late
September 2008
SLIDE 15