Who Will Do The Work 2018-2022 North American Pipeline & Utility - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Florida Energy Pipeline Association Who Will Do The Work 2018-2022 North American Pipeline & Utility Workforce Supply vs. Demand Florida Energy Pipeline Association (FEPA) 2018 FEPA Summer Symposium Mark Bridgers - Continuum Capital
www.ContinuumCapital.net
Florida Energy Pipeline Association (FEPA) 2018 FEPA Summer Symposium Mark Bridgers - Continuum Capital Hammock Beach Resort, FL July 19, 2018
2018-2022 North American Pipeline & Utility Workforce Supply vs. Demand Florida Energy Pipeline Association
Objectives
– Introduce the audience to the likely landscape that Pipeline Operators, Engineers, and Contractors will face over the next decade where volatility and change will stress the financial, leadership, and people resources of these firms.
Agenda
– Global Economy – Energy, Pipeline, Utility Construction Economy – Workforce Development History & Solutions
2
Objective & Agenda
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Meeting Agenda
Global Economy Energy, Pipeline, Utility Construction Economy Workforce Development History & Solutions
3 Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Overall Economic Summary
2018 & 2019 includes great news
– Excitement and optimism abound for general economy and construction industry…consumer confidence is at a 17 year high – U.S. GDP growth accelerated at the end of 2017 and is starting 2018 at same rate and will continue throughout the year – Global growth is continuing and performing better than previous years…also showing up in some commodity price increases – Low energy prices persist, even with the movement of oil up…natural gas will remain low – $1.2 trillion in construction spending in 2017 and 2018 forecast at slightly higher level
2018 & 2019 – Political environment in Washington poisoned, will be problematic for next three years and 2018 mid-term elections will not bring stability 2019 & Beyond??
– 8+ years into economic expansion, all expansions end with a recession, when? – 2018 will show faster economic growth, improving conditions, and continued optimism – Rule of thumb: The likelihood of economic slowdown is inversely correlated to the number of tower cranes observed – Short and shallow recession in 2019/2020 followed by return to faster economic growth
4 Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Trump as “Constructor in Chief”
Continued good news and optimism – It is a good time to be in the energy industry - 2018, and 2019 will be some of the best years for design and construction activity driven by:
– Economic Conditions – Faster economic growth in 2017 occurred and 2018 is exhibiting even faster growth, we will see continued spending by owners on capital assets
numbers, and capital spending
– Infrastructure Spending – Proposed plan places spending burden on states – both positive and negative in that selected projects driven by local selection…funding also local – Energy Policy – FERC quorum restored in August 2017, continued support for energy infrastructure, curtailing of some EPA overregulation has sets the stage to drive construction activity over the next 2-4 years – Regulatory Oversight – More flexible regulation drives additional construction activity and loosening of spending from owners who have been sitting on their hands
Risks: North Korea, Iran, Trade War, Inflation, Interest Rates
“I think it's a myth that expansions die of old age… So the fact that this has been quite a long expansion doesn’t lead me to believe that… its days are numbered.” Janet Yellen
5 Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
2016 GDP of only 1.6%; 2017 closed at 2.3% with 3+% growth at the end of the year; 2018 anticipated at 3% for full year Consumer confidence continues to rise and is approaching 1999 peak - 17 years ago!
6
4.9 0.4 3.2 0.2 3.1 1.4
2.0
3.91.73.9
2.90.8 4.6 0.1 2.8 0.8 4.0
5.0 2.6 0.8 3.5 1.2 3.3 2.2
0.0 5.0 10.0 2006q1 2007q1 2008q1 2009q1 2010q1 2011q1 2012q1 2013q1 2014q1 2015q1 2016q1 2017q1 2018q1 Percent
Ben Bernanke takes office Janet Yellen takes office Brexit announced Jerome Powell takes
40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Index CCI Annual Average
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Inflation
Still exceptionally low, moving up in 2018 and will continue up through remainder of they year ending around 3%…expect no dramatic change until 2019 or 2020 With price of oil moving up, energy goods are showing some inflation
7
0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Percent CPI
0.0 20.0 40.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Percent CPI Energy Goods
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Stock Market Performance
Superb 2017…2018 very volatile but why? 2017 Drivers…combination of optimism, continued economic performance and continued low interest rates 2018 Drivers…sense bull market must end
– Technical correction (-10%) in January/February – recovered half of correction by end of February – Federal reserve raised rates 2x already and expect 2 more – rates are still and will remain at historically low figures throughout 2018. – Federal reserve has announced intention to unwind last 10 years of bond purchases…what will the impact be?
2018 markets will remain highly volatile as traders attempt to second guess the market and perfect exit and entry timing
8 Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Residential Construction
Single family constrained by labor, lot, and Lumber availability
– Inventory shortage continues flat or shrinking and is holding prices up and in hot markets moving prices much higher
Multi-family to serve millennial and other renter is hot and may be approaching overbuilt? 2017 total starts 1.2 million; 2018 expected to show increase to 1.3 million range
9
1000 2000 3000 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Starts (000s) Housing Starts ('000s)
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Global vs. Local Commodities
Global and US growth accelerating is pushing up commodity prices Tariffs are pushing up commodity prices Price increases are not yet significant enough to hurt growth but an all out trade war would be catastrophic
10
Source: Continuum analysis and presentation of US Department of Commerce raw data.
100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 240.0 260.0 280.0
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18
Index: Base of 100.0 in 1982 All Construction Materials Steel Products NonFerrous (Copper, etc.) Lumber Monthly-> <-Annual
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Unemployment
11
Continuing to improve and pulling workers back into workforce
– 200,000+ jobs added in November & December 2017; 215,000 monthly average jobs addition for 2018 year to date – Labor Participation inching up? Still 4% below peak – each point = 3-4 million workers rejoining the labor force – approximately 15 million people total
4% 9% 14% 19% 24% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Percent
Unemployment
66.4 62.6
62 63 64 65 66 67 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Percent US Labor Participation Rate
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Meeting Agenda
Global Economy Energy, Pipeline, Utility Construction Economy Workforce Development History & Solutions
12 Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Domestic Oil & Gas Production
U.S. can potentially out produce competing countries Still competitive even at low energy prices – rig counts moving up more aggressively as oil price moves up More activity on major plants and other assets in Utica and TX/OK footprint; gathering, cracking, or transporting product – will help multiple markets
13
400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 2,400 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 US Rig Count
Gas Annual Average Oil Annual Average
$0 $5 $10 $15 $0 $50 $100 $150 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17
Crude Oil (WTI) Natural Gas (Henry Hub) Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
24,954 33,002 36,267 32,076 31,992 38,892 42,456 51,964 43,696 41,083 46,536 52,654 53,246 53,980 56,265 58,369 38.3% 32.3% 9.9%
21.6% 9.2% 22.4%
13.3% 13.1% 1.1% 1.4% 4.2% 3.7%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Canada T&D Gas/Liquid U.S. T&D Gas/Liquid % Change Source: Building permits, construction put in place, and trade sources. Continuum prepared forecasts for 2018-2022.
North American Gas/Liquid T&D Construction Put-In-Place Spending Forecast
Rebound of spending in 2018-2020 in transmission activity in US and Canada due to rising oil prices, regulatory activity, and 2020 US election Distribution activity in US continuing to grow, Canada possibly exhibit faster growth due to potential regulatory priorities Moderate growth in 2021-2022 currently forecast – waiting for next impetus to accelerate…integrity shift, vintage plastic replacement, Trump re-elected, etc.?
14
Millions
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Spend Up 7.5x 2002
Utility Industry Perceptions
15
Source: Proprietary Continuum analysis of utility contractor perceptions over 2012-2017. Utility Construction Index > 50 Indicates Growth (Better) < 50 Indicates Slowing (Worse) Interpretation: A reduction from 76.4 to 66.0 down to 58.8 for Liquid/Gas Pipeline Contractors indicates that while perceptions of the market are still positive, they are much less positive than they were prior to 2015. 72.2 72.6 74.4 76.7 72.9 74.2 63.4 76.7 77.0 71.5 Q2, 2013 Q3, 2013 Q1, 2014 Q3, 2014 Q1, 2015 Q3, 2015 Q1, 2016 Q3, 2016 Q1, 2017 Q3, 2017 74.9 76.7 74.5 76.4 66.0 63.9 58.8 70.3 77.7 78.0 Q2, 2013 Q3, 2013 Q1, 2014 Q3, 2014 Q1, 2015 Q3, 2015 Q1, 2016 Q3, 2016 Q1, 2017 Q3, 2017
Liquid/Gas Pipeline Contractors Gas Distribution Contractors
Liquid/Gas pipeline perspectives on construction market activity becoming less positive since peak oil price in 2014, now dramatically improving with
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
1.67% 4.25% 4.48% 5.27% 3.86% 4.36% 5.65% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Q3, 2014 Q1, 2015 Q3, 2015 Q1, 2016 Q3, 2016 Q1, 2017 Q3, 2017 % Avg All Respondents
Comparison of Cap Ex forecast year to year
Capital Expenditure Perspectives
Equipment and other capital expenditure expectations peaking in 2018
16
Source: Proprietary Continuum analysis of utility contractor survey feedback during 2012-2017.
Exhibit x What changes do you foresee in your Cap Ex for facilities, equipment and other resources in 2018?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q3, 2014 Q1, 2015 Q3, 2015 Q1, 2016 Q3, 2016 Q1, 2017 Q3, 2017 % of All Respondents
Q3, 2014 Q1, 2015 Q3, 2015 Q1, 2016 Q3, 2016 Q1, 2017 Q3, 2017
Multi-Year Comparison of Cap Ex Spend Change
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Utility Contractor Financial Performance
2016 Utility contractor results mixed: Liquid pipeline still down; Distribution pipeline thriving; Electric T&D up; Power Gen in turmoil coal/nuclear (down), renewable/gas (up); Telecom mini-boom continues; and Wet utility contractors still moving sideways. 2017 Utility contractor results peaking: Liquid pipeline peaking; Distribution pipeline thriving; Electric T&D up; Coal/nuclear (down), renewable/gas (up); Telecom mini-boom continues; and Wet utility contractors finally showing improving returns with market growth. 2018 Forecast: Pipeline, gas distribution and telecom offer highest 2018 growth and margin potential; other firm types mixed depending on geography and market segment.
17
5.1% 3.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 4.2% 5.0% 4.2% 4.8% 5.0% 3.8% 4.0% 1.6% 0.5% 1.9% 1.3% 0.4% 2.0%
0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 1.8% 1.8%
0.1%
0% 5% 10% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percent Net Income After Tax 1st Quartile All 3rd Quartile All
Source: Proprietary Continuum analysis of utility contractor financial results 2003 to 2017.
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
3.09% 4.56% 2.45% 2.81% 5.07% 4.32% 3.93% 3.96% 3.79% 4.10% 5.21% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Q3, 2012 Q2, 2013 Q3, 2013 Q1, 2014 Q3, 2014 Q1, 2015 Q3, 2015 Q1, 2016 Q3, 2016 Q1, 2017 Q3, 2017 % Avg All Respondents
Comparison of hiring growth from 3Q 2012 to 1Q 2017
Hiring Perspectives
18
Pipeline contractor utility survey 2012-2017
– Hiring growth rate peaked in 2014 and again in 2017; currently above 5% – Natural growth rate of workforce is 1.5%
Source: Proprietary Continuum analysis of utility contractor survey feedback during 2012-2017.
Exhibit x What changes do you foresee in the number of fulltime direct employees in your organization for xxx? (excluding natural attrition, retirements, etc.)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% >-10%
0% +0%-5% +5%-10% >10% % of All Respondents
Q3, 2012 Q2, 2013 Q3, 2013 Q1, 2014 Q3, 2014 Q1, 2015 Q3, 2015 Q1, 2016 Q3, 2016 Q1, 2017 Q3, 2017
Comparison of hiring growth from 3Q 2012 to 3Q 2017
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Meeting Agenda
Global Economy Energy, Pipeline, Utility Construction Economy Workforce Development History & Solutions
19 Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Historic Immigration Statistics
20
Source: US Census.
Mark Bridgers 3/28/2017 2017 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Underground Utility Infrastructure Thesis
Who Will Do The Work?
– Thesis: That growth in spending on underground pipeline and utility infrastructure between 2008 and 2018 has stretched resources in a way that makes continued expansion problematic for contractors and the pipeline operators and utilities they serve.
21
2008 Today
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
22
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Your Solutions (1 of 3)
Do nothing Talk more Worry more Attempt more aggressive hiring Pour money on the problem Worry some more Focus on growing rather than hiring
23 Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Your Solutions (1 of 3)
Take individual company action
24 Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Long-Term Objective: To establish a competitive advantage in the control of a scarce resource…highly skilled field labor, construction/project management staff, and design professionals Approach
to company strategy
leader development
development
2018-2020 2021-2023 2023-2025 2025-2030 Beyond 2030 2018 Strategy Re- Design Evaluation & Strategy Design Attraction, Retention, Training Geography, Market, Service Diversification Strategy Refinement Senior Level Leader Development Management Succession Project Level Leader Development Technology Driven Productivity Improvement Performance Management
exceed their expectations
Outcomes
Your Solutions (1 of 3)
Take organized regional action with support of FEPA & FNGA
– Form a local pilot effort and leverage the UCWA “play book” – Supply data to develop accurate supply/demand forecasts – Get involved locally with ACE Mentoring (www.acementor.org) and use their tools to raise awareness with local high school students of what we have to offer as an industry – Get involved locally with Skills USA Florida (www.skillsusafl.org) and use their tools to raise awareness with local high & middle school students of what we have to offer as an industry – Join your local community/technical college industry board to help refine/develop training programs that fit our needs – Hire from your local community/technical college
25 Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Example Comprehensive Training Program Development
26
General Utility Construction & Maintenance Training Program
Basic Computer OSHA 10 Class A CDL (with tanker endorsement) Plan & Blueprint Reading Basic Power Awareness Work Zone Safety Utility Locating One Call Basic Permit Requirements Construction Math Basic Power Tools Basic Rigging Basic Electric (AC/DC Theory)
Underground Utility Training Program Overhead Utility Training Program
Pipe Fusion Shoring & Trench Safety Asset Separation Environmental Impact Pole Climbing Basic Aerial Bucket & Digger Derrick Operation Advance Power Awareness Trenching Techniques Direction Boring Operation Cross Bore Risk Management Enclosed/ Confined Space Pole Attachment Points Pole Setting & Replacement
Water/Sewer Broadband Electric Pipeline Broadband Electric Dist. Electric Trans. Other Overhead
Heavy Equipment Operation Light Equipment Operation Cable Stringing Tunneling Fiber Splicing Cable Pulling Steel & Alloy Welding Fiber Splicing Energized vs. Non-Energized Cable Blowing Copper Splicing Pressure Testing Line Splicing
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
www.ContinuumCapital.net
Thank You
MARK BRIDGERS
shipping: mailing: 405 Forsyth Street PO Box 31026 Raleigh, NC 27609 Raleigh, NC 27622 www.ContinuumCapital.net 919.345.0403 MBridgers@ContinuumCapital.net Twitter: @MarkBridgers Skype: mark.bridgers.continuum LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/pub/mark-bridgers/12/9b4/81
www.ContinuumCapital.net
Mark Bridgers
Mark founded and leads a Utility Vertical Market team team at Continuum Capital. He works with gas/electric utilities, power generators, pipeline companies, and energy
Mark was recently honored with membership in the Society of Gas Operators (SOGO) and the Gild of Ancient Supplers. Mark helps firms prepare for and successfully navigate “strategic transitions.” His passion is helping organizations achieve breakthrough innovations through collaborative or integrated relationships. He is the architect of an approach for integrated service provider management referred to as the “Extended Enterprise” among construction industry participants. Mark is an avid educator, trainer, and writer with more than 20 years of industry expertise including financial performance analysis; development and implementation of tools to reduce construction cost, life-cycle cost, and
techniques; and leader development.. He is a recognized expert in capital construction and operational challenges . Mark is also author of over 150 articles and research papers published internationally in industry journals, including ENR, PE – The Magazine for Professional Engineers, Pipeline & Gas Journal, Utility Contractor (NUCA), Underground Contractor, Electric Energy (RMEL) and Electric Perspectives (EEI). Mark holds a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Virginia’s Darden school of Business and a bachelor’s degree in financial management from Clemson University. In addition, he earned the designation of Chartered Property and Casualty Underwriter (CPCU) and Associate in Reinsurance (ARe).
www.ContinuumCapital.net
Workforce Availability Perspectives & Information
Underground Utility Infrastructure Thesis
Who Will Do The Work?
– Thesis: That growth in spending on underground pipeline and utility infrastructure between 2008 and 2018 has stretched resources in a way that makes continued expansion problematic for contractors and the pipeline operators and utilities they serve.
30
2008 Today
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
State Specific Drivers of Pipeline Spending
31
5 Hot Spots
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
24,954 33,002 36,267 32,076 31,992 38,892 42,456 51,964 43,696 41,083 46,536 52,654 53,246 53,980 56,265 58,369 38.3% 32.3% 9.9%
21.6% 9.2% 22.4%
13.3% 13.1% 1.1% 1.4% 4.2% 3.7%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Canada T&D Gas/Liquid U.S. T&D Gas/Liquid % Change Source: Building permits, construction put in place, and trade sources. Continuum prepared forecasts for 2018-2022.
North American Gas/Liquid T&D Construction Put-In-Place Spending Forecast
Rebound of spending in 2018-2020 in transmission activity in US and Canada due to rising oil prices, regulatory activity, and 2020 US election Distribution activity in US continuing to grow, Canada possibly exhibit faster growth due to potential regulatory priorities Moderate growth in 2021-2022 currently forecast – waiting for next impetus to accelerate…integrity shift, vintage plastic replacement, Trump re-elected, etc.?
32
Millions
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Spend Up 7.5x 2002
US Gas& Oil Pipeline Wave Drivers
33
Wave 1 2008-2013 Wave 2 2016-2021 Wave 3 2025-2030 Wave 4 Beyond 2031
Replacement Industrial & Power Gen Renaissance
The Cliff
exploration expansion
network expansion
activity
programs start
pressure distribution lateral construction
transmission system build
transport
programs accelerating
accelerating
replacement programs accelerating
activity
replaced
increase domestic gas production
replacement activity slows
infrastructure replaced in 20 years
infrastructure complete – modest to no growth
by low population growth
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Today: Contractor Oil & Gas Pipeline Workforce
34
Source: Continuum analysis of 2013 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) data for NAICS 23712 Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction, industry interviews, and proprietary Continuum information.
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Today: Gas Utility Construction Workforce
35
Source: Continuum analysis of 2013 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) data for NAICS 486000 Pipeline Transportation, NAICS 221210 Natural Gas Distribution, distribution utility and industry interviews, and proprietary Continuum information.
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Today: Combined Underground Workforce – 17,000 Crews
36
Field production staff consist of the following
– Construction Laborers – Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators – Plumbers Pipefitters and Steamfitters – Helpers--Pipelayers Plumbers Pipefitters and Steamfitters – Welders Cutters Solderers and Brazers
Foreman & Superintendents are classified as first-line supervisors of construction trades Other field support includes truck drivers, inspectors, mechanics, pavers, landscapers, etc. Assuming 4 staff per crew on average equals 17,000 available crews
69,000 13,000 4,700 30,000 27,000
Combined Combined Wor
kfor
ce Br Breakdo eakdown wn
Field Prodcution Staff Foreman & Supers Construction Managers Other Field Support Office & Management
Source: Continuum analysis of 2013 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) data for NAICS 23712 Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction, NAICS 486000 Pipeline Transportation, NAICS 221210 Natural Gas Distribution and gas distribution contractor, utility, and industry interviews, and proprietary Continuum information.
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Today: Pipeline Supply vs. Demand
37
Labor supply versus today’s regional spending:
– New England – Critical – Pacific – Critical – Middle Atlantic – Challenging – East North Central – Challenging – South Atlantic – Challenging – West North Central - Challenging – East South Central – Challenging – Mountain – Manageable – West South Central – Manageable
3 Hot Spots
Source: Continuum analysis of 2013 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) data for NAICS 23712 Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction, NAICS 486000 Pipeline Transportation, NAICS 221210 Natural Gas Distribution and gas distribution contractor, utility, and industry interviews, and proprietary Continuum information.
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
Future Pipeline Labor & Management Need?
38
From Today: 2020 = 5,750 Additional Crews 2030 = 11,000 Additional Crews
Source: Continuum analysis of 2013 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) data for NAICS 23712 Oil and Gas Pipeline Construction, NAICS 486000 Pipeline Transportation, NAICS 221210 Natural Gas Distribution and gas distribution contractor, utility, and industry interviews, and proprietary Continuum information.
11,000 44,000 11,186 4,044 25,814 23,233
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Ad Additional ditional La Labor bor Needed by eeded by 2030 2030 5,750 23,000 6,651 2,405 15,349 13,814
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Ad Additional ditional La Labor bor Needed eeded by by 2020 2020
Office & Management Other Field Support Construction Manager Foreman/Super Field Production Staff Crews
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
2020: Pipeline Supply vs. Demand
39
5 Hot Spots Due To:
lateral
replacement
accelerating
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net
2030: Pipeline Supply vs. Demand
40
3 Hot Spots Due to:
transmission replacement
replaced
Mark Bridgers 7/19/2018 2018 Who Will Do The Work www.ContinuumCapital.net