Whos moving in? out? Population dynamics in Charlotte Rebecca - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Whos moving in? out? Population dynamics in Charlotte Rebecca - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 11, 2023 480 likes •981 views

Whos moving in? out? Population dynamics in Charlotte Rebecca Tippett, PhD Image Source: John Ashley, Wikimedia Commons 109 average daily growth of Charlotte metro from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S.

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SLIDE 1 Image Source: John Ashley, Wikimedia Commons

Who’s moving in? out?

Population dynamics in Charlotte

Rebecca Tippett, PhD

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SLIDE 2

109

average daily growth of Charlotte metro from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015

Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
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SLIDE 3 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Charlotte Metropolitan Area

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SLIDE 4

1 million

residents in 2015

Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Charlotte Metropolitan Area

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SLIDE 5

2.4 million

residents in 2015

Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Charlotte Metropolitan Area

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SLIDE 6

+4.9%

population growth 2010-15

Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

381 metro areas

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SLIDE 7 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

53 with population >1M +5.6%

population growth 2010-15

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SLIDE 8 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

13 large (1M+) metros with growth>8.2% +10.7%

population growth 2010-15

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SLIDE 9

8.4% 8.4% 8.5% 9.1% 9.4% 9.5% 10.5% 10.6% 11.3% 11.8% 12.4% 12.7% 16.6%

Las Vegas Oklahoma City Seattle Phoenix Charlotte Nashville Dallas Denver San Antonio Orlando Houston Raleigh Austin Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Charlotte 9th fastest growing large (1M+) metro

Population growth rate, 2010-2015

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SLIDE 10
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SLIDE 11 0% 50% 100% Dallas Phoenix Houston Oklahoma City Las Vegas Seattle Denver San Antonio Raleigh Nashville Charlotte Austin Orlando Net Migration Natural Increase Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Net migration main driver of growth across top metros

Components of population change, 2010-2015

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SLIDE 12 0% 50% 100% Dallas Phoenix Houston Oklahoma City Las Vegas Seattle Denver San Antonio Raleigh Nashville Charlotte Austin Orlando Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Increase Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Domestic migration 50% or more of growth in 6 metros

Components of population change, 2010-2015

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SLIDE 13 Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Population growth uneven across Charlotte metro

Population growth rate, 2010-2015

Metro growth = 9.4%

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SLIDE 14

60% 65% 70% 73% 73% 75% 81% 87% 90% 100%

Mecklenburg Rowan Union Gaston Cabarrus York Iredell Lincoln Lancaster Chester Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Net migration main driver of county growth (or loss)

Net migration share of population change, 2010-2015

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How many net migrants did Charlotte MSA gain between 2014-15?

a) 19,665 IRS migration statistics b) 33,756 Census population estimates c) 34,448 American Community Survey d) 37,558 Census population estimates

Net Migration + “Residual”

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+268K

internal moves

89K

moved out

123K

moved in

Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau; 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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SLIDE 17

Who moves?

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SLIDE 18 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Shar are of Migr grant ant Group up Age In-Migrants Out-Migrants Internal Movers Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Age structure of movers similar, regardless of destination

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SLIDE 19 7% 16% 22% 28% 12% 24% 23% 20%

20% 40% 45% 49%

Non-Mover Within Region Move In-Migrant Out-Migrant 18-24 25-34

Young adults (18-34) are most likely movers

Young adult share by migration status, 2012-14

Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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SLIDE 20

89K

moved out

Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau; 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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SLIDE 21
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SLIDE 22

123K

moved in

Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau
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  • 10,000
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number er of People Age Age MSA Mecklenburg Source: Winkler et al., 2013

Charlotte is an employment destination

Net migration by age, 2000-2010

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40%

  • f in-migrants from other

states moved for a job

Source: 2012-2016 CPS, IPUMS-CPS
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47%

  • f in-migrants (25-64)

have a BA/BS or more

Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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Where do individuals move from? 25% 10% 6%

41% of in-migrants to Charlotte

Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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But what about all those… ?

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7% move from

another country

Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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Top 3?

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545

Mexico

1,670

India

430

China

Top 3 Sending Countries

Average annual arrivals

Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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SLIDE 31

Not a PUMA

Image Source: Incacity, Flickr
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SLIDE 32 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

PUMAs

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SLIDE 33

Half of in-migration is to Mecklenburg

Share of metro in-migrants by PUMA, 2012-14

Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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SLIDE 34

New arrivals are most concentrated in Charlotte city limits

In-migrants as share of PUMA population 1 and older, 2012-14

Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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SLIDE 35 7% 16% 22% 28% 12% 24% 23% 20%

20% 40% 45% 49%

Non-Mover Within Region Move In-Migrant Out-Migrant 18-24 25-34

Reminder: Young adults (18-34) are most likely movers

Young adult share by migration status, 2012-14

Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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…and they are concentrated in Mecklenburg, Rowan

Young adult (18-34) share of in-migrants by PUMA, 2012-14

Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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Reflecting age, in-migrants less likely to own home, have family

Share of households with selected characteristics by migration status, 2012-14

66% 51% 42% 22% 40% 29%

Own Home (HH) Married Have children Living in Charlotte 1 year ago In-migrants Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA
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SLIDE 38 Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Homeownership higher outside central city, but still below 66%

Homeownership rate of in-migrant households by PUMA, 2012-14

66% among non-in- migrant households

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SLIDE 39 Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

1.2% among non-in- migrant households

4.6% of in-migrants live in large apartment complexes

Share of in-migrant households living in apartment complexes with >50 units by PUMA, 2012-14

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SLIDE 40 Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

51% among non-in- migrant households

Married in-migrants more likely in Union, York, and Iredell

Share of married in-migrant household by PUMA, 2012-14

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SLIDE 41 Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

42% among non-in- migrant households

Presence of children reflects different household structures

Share of in-migrant households with children by PUMA, 2012-14

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SLIDE 42

+268K

internal moves

Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau
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83%

  • f internal moves are

within the same county

Source: 2015 ACS
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Intra-county moves:

Source: 2012-2016 CPS, IPUMS-CPS

22% for cheaper housing 18% for better housing

  • r neighborhood
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Net out-flows from Mecklenburg?

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SLIDE 46 Source: 2013-14 IRS SOI

Net out-flows from Mecklenburg to neighbors

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SLIDE 47 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Number er of People Age Age Cabarrus Union York Source: Winkler et al., 2013

Neighboring counties are family suburb destinations

Net migration by age, 2000-2010

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