where we stand where we are going
Third-Quarter 2018 Earnings Call
October 26, 2018
where we stand where we are going Third-Quarter 2018 Earnings Call - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
where we stand where we are going Third-Quarter 2018 Earnings Call October 26, 2018 Forward-Looking Statements and Other Disclaimers This presentation includes forward looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities
Third-Quarter 2018 Earnings Call
October 26, 2018
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This presentation includes forward‐looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The statements regarding future financial and operating performance and results, strategic pursuits and goals, market prices, future hedging and risk management activities, and other statements that are not historical facts contained in this report are forward-looking statements. The words “expect”, “project”, “estimate”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “budget”, “plan”, “forecast”, “outlook”, “target”, “predict”, “may”, “should”, “could”, “will” and similar expressions are also intended to identify forward-looking
basis differentials) of natural gas and crude oil, results of future drilling and marketing activity, future production and costs, legislative and regulatory initiatives, electronic, cyber or physical security breaches and other factors detailed herein and in our other Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings. See “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of the Form 10-K and subsequent public filings for additional information about these risks and uncertainties. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual
made, and Cabot Oil & Gas (the “Company” or “Cabot”) does not undertake any obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as the result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. This presentation may contain certain terms, such as resource potential, risked or unrisked resources, potential locations, risked or unrisked locations, EUR (estimated ultimate recovery) and other similar terms that describe estimates of potentially recoverable hydrocarbons that the SEC rules prohibit from being included in filings with the SEC. These estimates are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves and may not constitute “reserves” within the meaning of SEC rules and accordingly, are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized. These estimates are based on the Company’s existing models and internal estimates. Actual locations drilled and quantities that may be ultimately recovered from the Company’s interests could differ substantially. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of the Company’s ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availably of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals, actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates, and other factors. These estimates may change significantly as development of the Company’s assets provide additional data. Investors are urged to consider carefully the disclosures and risk factors about Cabot’s reserves in the Form 10‐K and other reports on file with the SEC. This presentation also refers to Discretionary Cash Flow, EBITDAX, Free Cash Flow, Adjusted Net Income (Loss), Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) and Net Debt calculations and ratios. These non-GAAP financial measures are not alternatives to GAAP measures, and should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative for analysis of the Company’s results as reported under GAAP. For additional disclosure regarding such non-GAAP measures, including definitions of these terms and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to Cabot’s most recent earnings release at www.cabotog.com and the Company’s related 8-K on file with the SEC.
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per day
share); adjusted net income (non-GAAP) of $108.9 million (or $0.25 per share)
$242.2 million; discretionary cash flow (non- GAAP) of $298.8 million
GAAP) of 10.8 percent for the trailing twelve months
shareholders through dividends and share repurchases
the Company’s third dividend increase in the last 18 months
annualized interest expense savings of $15.3 million
percent relative to the prior-year comparable quarter
Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
1 Includes direct operations, transportation and gathering, taxes other than income, exploration, DD&A, general and administrative, and interest expenseQ3 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2017
Equivalent Production (Mmcfe/d) 2,029 1,895 1,843 Realized Gas Price (Incl. Hedges) ($/Mcf) $2.36 $2.15 $2.03 Realized Gas Price (Excl. Hedges) ($/Mcf) $2.36 $2.11 $2.01 Net Income ($mm) $122.3 $42.4 $17.6 Adjusted Net Income (non-GAAP) ($mm) $108.9 $57.9 $32.0 Discretionary Cash Flow (non-GAAP) ($mm) $298.8 $196.5 $207.2 EBITDAX (non-GAAP) ($mm) $291.6 $232.1 $218.6 Operating Expenses1 ($/Mcfe) $1.69 $1.85 $2.06 LTM Net Debt / EBITDAX (Non-GAAP) 0.9x 0.8x 1.0x
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~3,000 Remaining Undrilled Locations Year-End 2017 Net Producing Horizontal Wells: 561 2018E Wells Placed on Production: 80 Net Wells Inventory Life Based on 2018E Activity: ~35 years
MARCELLUS SHALE
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Deliver growth in production and reserves per debt-adjusted share while generating positive free cash flow Generate an improving return on capital employed (ROCE) that exceeds our cost of capital Increase the return of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases Maintain a strong balance sheet to maximize financial flexibility
share)
to TTM Q3 2017
shareholder yield2,3,4
in the last 18 months
annually through dividends and share repurchases
Disciplined capital allocation focused on delivering debt-adjusted per share growth, generating positive free cash flow, improving corporate returns on capital employed, increasing return of capital to shareholders, and maintaining a strong balance sheet
1 Based on forward curves as of the week of 10/22/2018 2 Based on market capitalization as of October 25, 2018 3 Assumes year-to-date 2018 share repurchases and estimated full-year dividend payments 4 As of October 26, 2018Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Daily Production Per Debt-Adjusted Share
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year-End Proved Reserves Per Debt-Adjusted Share
Note: Debt-adjusted share count is calculated as the sum of the annual weighted average shares outstanding plus the incremental “debt shares” by dividing total debt by the average annual share price.
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$1.21 $0.87 $0.55 $0.71 $0.57 $0.37 $0.35 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Company All-Sources Finding & Development Costs ($/Mcfe) Marcellus All-Sources Finding & Development Costs ($/Mcf)
$0.65 $0.49 $0.40 $0.43 $0.31 $0.26 $0.22 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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$1.88 $1.74 $1.31 $1.30 $1.30 $1.16 $1.13 $1.06 $0.99 $0.98 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Operating Transportation¹ Taxes O/T Income Cash G&A² Financing³ Exploration
1 Includes all demand charges and gathering fees 2 Excludes stock-based compensation 3 Excludes non-cash interest expense associated with income tax reserves and amortization of deferred financing cost 4 Excludes dry hole costCash Operating Expenses ($/Mcfe)
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5.7% 10.8% >20% TTM Q3 2017 TTM Q3 2018 2019E¹
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
1 Based on forward curves as of the week of 10/22/201810
Free Cash Flow ($ mm)
$155 $250 $650 - $700 2017 2018E¹ 2019E¹
Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
1Based on forward curves as of the week of 10/22/2018 2 Based on market capitalization as of 10/25/2018~7% free cash flow yield2
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Return of Capital to Shareholders ($mm)
$13 $17 $25 $33 $33 $36 $79 $111 $165 $139 $124 $710 Year-to- Date (as of
2018) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E Dividends Share Repurchases Increased Dividend 33% Increased Dividend 100% Increased Dividend 150% Increased Dividend 40% Commodity Price Downturn
Remaining share repurchase authorization of 20mm shares1
1 As of October 26, 2018Note: The chart above excludes the Company’s 2016 equity issuance
Cabot is committed to returning >50% of free cash flow to shareholders annually through dividends and share repurchases
Cabot’s Balance Sheet is Well-Positioned to Provide Financial Flexibility Through the Commodity Price Cycle
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1.4x 1.4x 0.9x 1.2x 2.5x 1.8x 1.0x 0.9x 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q3 2018 Target Leverage Ratio: 1.0x – 1.5x
Note: See supplemental tables at the end of the presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures
Net Debt to LTM EBITDAX
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reservoirs—is 25 feet or thicker across 90% of Cabot’s acreage position (up to 90 feet thick)
Tully / Geneseo formations are 900 – 1,900 feet above the intervals shown in Bradford / Susquehanna Counties, PA
N
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4.4 2.9
Appalachian Gas Play Non-Appalachian Gas Play Peer Average: 2.17 Bcfe / 1,000’
Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) – Bcfe/1,000 Lateral Feet
Source: Current investor presentations as of February 16, 2018. Peers include Antero Resources, Chesapeake Energy, Eclipse Resources, EQT Corporation, Gulfport Energy, Range Resources, and Southwestern Energy. For companies with multiple type curves, a weighted average was used based on location count or acreage, based
Based on Gen 4 / 5 completion designs
per 1,000 lateral feet for comparable well design
Marcellus wells in 2H 2018
15 ~2.4 Bcf/d 2.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 ~4.0 Bcf/d 250 Mmcf/d 160 Mmcf/d 1.05 Bcf/d 150 Mmcf/d Q3 2018 Gross Production Atlantic Sunrise (In service as of October 6, 2018) Lackawanna Energy Center Power Plant (Trains 1 & 2 online; Train 3 on schedule for December 2018) PennEast (2020) Leidy South (As early as Q4 2021) Future Gross Production Capacity Based on Firm Transport / Firm Sales Secured as of Q3 2018
Cabot continues to evaluate new opportunities to increase firm transport capacity / firm sales and remains confident it can organically grow its production base above 4.0 Bcf/d through the following opportunities: 1) additional sales on currently approved takeaway projects (i.e. PennEast) 2) incremental sales on potential future expansion projects 3) increasing in-basin market share 4) new in-basin demand projects 5) future greenfield takeaway projects (including Constitution Pipeline)
Note: COG firm transport capacity / firm sales are stated on a gross basis before royalties
Remaining capacity associated with Trains 2 & 3
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Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018E
2,029 1,884 1,895 ~2,225 – 2,275
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83% 8% 7% 2% Marcellus Shale Exploration Areas Pipeline Investments Corporate
2018E Production Growth: 7% - 8% (12% - 13% on a debt-adjusted per share basis) Net Marcellus Wells Placed on Production 2018E Total Program Spending: $940 mm
(includes $70 mm of equity pipeline investments)
Net Production (Mmcfe/d)
20 36 24 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018E Q4 2018E
Due to larger pad sizes in Q1 and the 2nd completion crew not coming
February 2018, no wells were placed
during Q1
Full-year 2018 daily production growth guidance: 7% - 8% (12% - 13% on a debt-adjusted per share basis) – Q4 2018 production guidance: 2,225 – 2,275 Mmcfe/d 2018 total program spending: $940 million – Marcellus Shale: $780 million – Exploration Areas: $75 million – Pipeline Investments: $70 million – Corporate: $15 million 2018 Marcellus Shale wells placed on production: 80 net wells 2018 income tax rate guidance: 24% 2018 deferred tax rate guidance: 100%+ (The Company expects to receive a refund in 2018 associated with the recent repeal of the corporate alternative minimum tax) Q4 2018E Natural Gas Price Exposure By Index NYMEX less ~($0.35) 28% Fixed Price (~$2.85) 20% Transco Z6 NNY less ~($0.65) 17% Leidy Line 10% TGP Z4 –300 Leg 10% Power Pricing 6% Dominion 6% Millennium 3% Note: Fixed price percentages above include volumes associated with sales agreements that have floor prices. An additional deduct of ~$0.05 per Mcf should be applied to account for fuel use. Q4 2018E Cost Assumptions ($/Mcfe, unless otherwise noted) Direct operations $0.08 - $0.09 Transportation and gathering $0.66 - $0.68 Taxes other than income $0.02 - $0.03 Depreciation, depletion and amortization $0.48 - $0.53 Interest expense $0.08 - $0.09 General and administrative ($mm)2 $13 - $15 Exploration ($mm)3 $5 - $6
(1) Based on forward curves as of the week of 10/22/2018 (2) Excluding stock-based compensation (3) Excluding exploratory dry hole costs; includes exploration administration expense and geophysical expenses
2018 Guidance Full-year 2019 daily production growth guidance: 20% - 25% (25% - 30% on a debt-adjusted per share basis) 2019 total program spending: $800 - $850 million 2019 average differential to NYMEX: $0.30 per Mcf1 2019 income tax rate guidance: 24% 2019 deferred tax rate guidance: 100% Preliminary 2019 Guidance
19 $67 $87 $188 $62 $575 $312 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 Q4 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Natural Gas (NYMEX) Swaps Total Volume (Bcf) Average Price per Mcf Natural Gas (NYMEX) Basis Swaps Total Volume - Leidy (Bcf) Average Price per Mcf (Leidy) Total Volume – Transco (Bcf) Average Price per Mcf (Transco) 98.0 $2.87 34.1 ($0.68) 10.7 $0.41 As of 9/30/2018 $bn Cash and Cash Equivalents $0.3 Debt $1.3 Net Debt $1.0 Net Capitalization $3.1 Liquidity $2.1 Net Debt / Capitalization 31.7% Net Debt / LTM EBITDAX 0.9x
2018 Hedge Position1
Debt Maturity Schedule ($mm) as of 9/30/2018 (Including Weighted Average Coupon Rate)
Capitalization / Liquidity
1As of October 26, 2018 2Based on the midpoint of the production guidance range$237mm repaid in July 2018
2018 Natural Gas Swaps # of Total $/Mcf Pricing Index Contracts Mcf/Day Fixed Price Duration LDS NYMEX 26 252,574 $2.93 Feb-18 Dec-18 LDS NYMEX 5 48,572 $3.10 Feb-18 Oct-18 2018 Natural Gas Basis Swaps # of Total $/Mcf Pricing Index Contracts Mcf/Day Fixed Price Duration Leidy 5 48,572 ($0.71) Jan-18 Dec-18 Leidy 5 48,572 ($0.68) Feb-18 Dec-18 Transco 3 26,143 $0.42 Jan-18 Dec-18 2019 Natural Gas Basis Swaps # of Total $/Mcf Pricing Index Contracts Mcf/Day Fixed Price Duration Leidy 15 145,716 ($0.55) Jan-19 Dec-19 Transco 3 29,143 $0.42 Jan-19 Dec-19
Note: As of October 26, 2018
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