What the fu future holds for nuclear energy? akira OMOTO, Tokyo - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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What the fu future holds for nuclear energy? akira OMOTO, Tokyo - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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What the fu future holds for nuclear energy? akira OMOTO, Tokyo Institute of Technology omoto@nr.titech.ac.jp, akira.omoto@mac.com Outline 1. Introduction 2. Projection of energy to 2050 and the role of Nuclear Energy 3. Paradigm shift

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akira OMOTO, Tokyo Institute of Technology

  • moto@nr.titech.ac.jp, akira.omoto@mac.com

What the fu future holds for nuclear energy?

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Outline

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  • A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018

1. Introduction 2. Projection of energy to 2050 and the role of Nuclear Energy

  • 3. Paradigm shift in power sector
  • 4. Complementary use Nuclear Energy and

Intermittent Renewables in Carbon-Constrained World

  • 5. Take-aways
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  • Global trend on energy

Resources availability, Demand, Public aspiration on sustainability, Technological innovations….  Projection of energy represents results of model calculation considering these factors

  • Public perception on nuclear safety and waste
  • Cost of NNB (New Nuclear Build)
  • Role of nuclear energy in carbon-constrained world
  • Yet unknows….

Factors that would influence the future of NE….

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IAEA Scientific Forum 2018: “Nuclear Technologies for Climate: Mitigation, Monitoring and Adaptation”

 Use of low carbon energy: helps mitigate GHG emission and its adverse effect  Use of isotopes and radiation: monitor environmental changes and enable adaptations

[source] J. Orr, Laboratory for Sciences of Climate and Environment (LSCE), France

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However, be prepared to avoid loss of credibility in discussion..

Many factors involved in Global Warming…volcano eruption, solar activity, earth’s magnetic field, Milankovitch cycle (10(5) yr) etc.

Also ocean surface pH change: may not simply attribute its trend to equilibration with atmospheric CO2

(http://landscapesandcycles.net/ocean-acidification-natural-cycles---uncertainties.html)

[SOURCE] Vostok Ice Core Data Graph

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[Ex.] Dr. A. Tsuchida’s argument: Heat from Sun temp. change atmospheric CO2 level change by supply from ocean (Henry’s law)

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[SOURCE] Kevin Loria, “The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere just hit its highest level in 800,000 years”, 2018June

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Nevertheless, recent sharp rise in atmospheric CO2 level by human activity is worrisome….

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1. Introduction 2. Projection of energy to 2050 and the role of Nuclear Energy

  • 3. Paradigm shift in power sector
  • 4. Complementary use Nuclear Energy and

Intermittent Renewables in Carbon-Constrained World

  • 5. Take-aways

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[SOURCE] World Energy Outlook 2009, Fig 5.8, primary energy

End use Efficiency

To achieve 450ppm (2DC) goal

Projections of demand/supply of primary energy

Renewables Nuclear CCS

World Energy Outlook 2009

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[SOURCE] Priyadarshi R. Shukla, IPCC, WGIII Co-Chair, “The Paris Agreement and Global Low Carbon Transition Towards 1.5DC” , 2017, based on Sterner and Bauer, WBGU2016

WBGU(German Advisory Council on Global Change) 2016

Global primary energy 9

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Global primary energy supply by sources in detail

The Jủ rgen Schmid scenario: a vision of a global renewable energy system by 2050 [SOURCE] WBGU (German Advisory Council on Global Changes) 2016

Solar Wind Biomass WBGU 2016

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Primary energy supply in Japan

[SOURCE] IAE, 2018

Others

  • Liq. Hydrogen

Renewables Nuclear Natural gas

Coal

Oil

Renewables Oil

Coal

IAE (Institute of Applied Energy) 2018

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[SOURCE] Komiyama, UT, year- 2050 projection, 2017

UT (University of Tokyo) 2017

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Nuclear share of 20％～22％@2030 in Basic Energy Plan 2014 as near-term goal in Japan (Basic Energy Strategy 2018)

(10(8)kWh)

【 Generating capcity 】

Capacity factor：70%

Nuclear share:20～22％ 12%〔20units〕 2４％〔42units〕

（FY) 60 years

  • peration

40 years

  • peration
  • To secure nuclear share of 20％～22％@2030

①Restart ②Life extension beyond 40 years ③NNB

  • De-fact phase-out in case limited restart, no 60 years, no NNB

15 years necessary for replacement

[Source] FEPC

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  • For example:

 How SMR may change NNB  How digitalization impact energy

  • NEA report: efficiency focus
  • Energy-hungry cloud

computing and Data center

  • Power consumption by use
  • f blockchain technology is

ever increasing

Austria Philippines Venezuela Chile Czech Finland TWh/year

Yet, unknowns…..

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Projections imply high expectations on 1) GHG emission reduction and 2) renewables:

  • What is the role of nuclear energy in carbon-

constrained world?

  • How Nuclear co-exist with Intermittent Renewables?

Major constraints A) Achieving deep decarbonization with minimum societal burden B) Current role of Nuclear is limited only to power…need to expand to other sectors

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The role of nuclear energy in carbon-constrained world

1) Supply of affordable, clean & reliable energy (electricity, heat, energy carrier) 2) Power supply to NETs, if conservation fails

  • Ex. BECCS (Biomass with CCS)

3) Radiation & Isotope: Monitoring, adaptation… 4) Complementary use with intermittent renewables & address intermittency-related problems in the grid etc……

[SOURCE] US-EPA, based on IPCC2014 16

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  • A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018

1. Introduction 2. Projection of energy to 2050 and the role of Nuclear Energy

  • 3. Paradigm shift in power sector
  • 4. Complementary use Nuclear Energy and

Intermittent Renewables in Carbon-Constrained World

  • 5. Take-aways
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  • Comparison of unsubsidized levelized cost of electricity,

not including social/environmental externalities nor intermittency-related cost

  • “Solar becomes the cheapest source of electricity

generation in many places including China and India”

(F. Birol, IEA OECD, 2017 World Energy Outlook)

[source] Lazard’s

levelized cost of energy analysis (2016) $/MWh

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Paradigm shift to Renewables

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Changes in the share of renewables (2004-2014) (including dispatchable renewables)

[SOURCE] Liebreich, BNEF, 2016

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Chin ina

  • Annual investment on capacity: Wind & PV >> Nuclear
  • FIT for Wind & PV

[SOURCE] Lu Zheng, Energy Data and Modelling Center, China

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[SOURCE] Renewable Energy Foundation

Kyushu’s daily load curve and the share

  • f solar power on sunny weekend

[source] Kyushu’s electricity forecast 2017.4.24

Coping strategies by Kyushu Electric

  • Pumped storage
  • Large scale batteries（300,000kWh)
  • Curtailment as necessary

Japan

Installed solar power> Nuclear (2016.12)

  • Due to a) reduced nuclear plants and

b) increased PV

  • Qualified solar ~80GWe

Solar power

[10,000kw] Hour Installed capacity

Nuclear Solar

Estimation using JAIF and IEA data

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Abandoned golf course to PV site

[SOURCE] BusinessInsider.com

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Deep penetration of Intermittent Renewables (Hypothetical curve in Germany 2030)

Wind Nuclear

[SOURCE] Universität Stuttgart, “Compatibility of renewable energies and nuclear power in the generation portfolio”, 2009

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2/3 of US NPP are not profitable (MIT, March2017) now; ….. shale gas and IRs

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[SOURCE] Negative Electricity Prices and the Production Tax Credit, The NorthBridge Group, 2012

Negative pric ice

“Must-run” nuclear (capital- intensive and no quick reaction to demand change) WIND: Negative price bidding by wind down to PTC($34/MWh) THERMAL: Bidding to recover fuel cost Iowa state in windy and low demand time High demand period Low demand period Positive Negative

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Paradigm shift to supply-contingent utilization system

[SOURCE] J. Specht, E.ON, 2014August

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Electricity transaction by Energy Resource* Aggregation business (ERAB) and Peer-to-Peer business in microgrid using blockchain

Forecast in J (Gwe) 2020 2030  x 0.1=ERAB HEMS 21 47 4.7 BEMS 16 31 3.1 FEMS 5.3 10 1 EV/PHV 4.5 44 4.5

SUM=13.2GWe

(4% out of 300 Gwe@2030?)

* Energy Resource post-FIT surplus electricity, Demand-side management, EV, Battery Energy Resource Aggregator Market Power suppliers

[source]http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/kenkyukai/energy_ environment/energy_resource/pdf/001_04_00.pdf

Peer to Peer transaction

EMS: Energy Management System

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Sweden France Denmark Germany gCO2/kWh 11 46 174 450 cent/kWh 20 22 41 40 Intermittent Renewables 10% 5% 51% 18% Dispatchable clean energy 88% 88% 15% 25%

[source] METI based on IEA “CO2 Emission from combustion” 2017

  • However, mere increase of IR does not lead to GHG emission

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  • The target of UK Climate Change Committee is 50gCO2/kWh.
  • MIT’s recent report says around 10–25 gCO2/kW is a target

to meet 2DC goal. The global current average stays at around 500gCO2/kWh.

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[SOURCE] Energy Matters

Europe: Per capita installed capacity of Wind & PV vs. tariff 29

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Market values Nuclear/Thermal IR [note] kWh value Yes Well fitted merit-of order of marginal cost

A d e q u a c y

kW value (capability to cover peak & anytime demand) Yes (dispatchable) No (Availability depends on weather Capacity market Battery storage DkW value (flexibility to demand changes)

Load following or Complementary use

No (Availability depends on weather Battery storage Complementary use

Intermittent Renewables (IR) : Power System Adequacy & burden 30

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Public burden by FIT/PTC: Reduction of oil/gas import offset by increase of FIT by 2030 (Japan)

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1. Introduction 2. Projection of energy to 2050 and the role of Nuclear Energy

  • 3. Paradigm shift in power sector
  • 4. Complementary use Nuclear Energy and

Intermittent Renewables in Carbon-Constrained World

  • 5. Take-aways

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Japanese rule for Curtailment of IRs to avoid grid stability/reliability issue while allowing grid connection of IRs as much as possible (since 2014)

  • 1. Curtail thermal power to its lowest possible level
  • 2. Absorb excess electricity by pumped storage (hydro)
  • 3. If still surplus exists, curtailment is possible up to 30 days without compensation

On the premise that all the above three are satisfied, decide maximum IR capacity for grid connection [for each grid (Utility) for each year]. (example) 7.3GWe of solar power against 8.2GWe lowest demand for Kyushu for 2017

Demand curve

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https://www.vox.com/2018/5/9/17336330/duck-curve-solar-energy-supply-demand-problem-caiso-nrel

Drop of demand as PV increases in California (duck curve) 33

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  • Nuclear & Intermittent Renewables: Considered as

conflicting with each other  Nuclear: IR is distorting market by FIT/PTC  IR: N is destroying environment 34

  • A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
  • Why complementary use?

Because,

  • Both contribute to security (GHG emission, domestic energy

supply)

  • Both are capital-intensive; high capacity factor is required for

economics  no curtailment of IR, no load-following of NPP

Principle of complementarity:

Bohr and Heisenberg, 1937 (Source: Heisenberg Society)

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Nuclear Power’s production of electricity Less when price is low, more when price is high revenue

Industrial heat/Hydrogen Partial heat storage Stored heat used for power generation

  • Store partial heat in Nuclear, when Sun is shining or Wind is strong

 Use stored heat for electricity generation when Sunshine/Wind is weak

  • Nuclear Hybrid

Production

by switching product depending on supply from IR

Heat storage

Examples of technologies for complementary use

[source] C. Forsberg, MIT

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Nuclear solution in response to load demand in the grid: Heat Storage

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Storage by steam accumulator

  • ther options available: CAES, Firebrick, Hot rocks…

Charlottenberg Power Station, Berlin Steam Accumulator since 1929 50MWe separate turbine from 67 MWh tanks : 16x4.3m(D) x 20m (H) Khi Solar I (South Africa) Steam Accumulator 19 accumulators, 130 kWh/m3

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  • A. Omoto, Titech, IAEA CS 12-15Nov2018
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  • Many Heat Storage Technologies can produce peak power

Steam Accumulators Sensible Heat Cryogenic Air Packed Beds Geothermal Hot Rock

Pilot Plant

  • Thermal storage for LWR retrofit: installation of steam accumulator and
  • versized turbine-generator

[source] C. Forsberg, MIT

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Compatibility with increased share of intermittent renewables requires system flexibilities to deal with Intermittency (variability & uncertainty) :  flexible generation: such as load following of NPP and curtailment of renewable  storage and/or hybrid production of energy carriers: such as by

battery or Power2Gas on renewables side

 smart grid management including Demand side

Electricity storage cost: MIT “Future of Nuclear Power in Carbon-Constrained World”, 2018

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Use of rare elements (Li/Co) in the earth’s crust

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[source] Forsberg, Omoto et al, MIT-Japan Study “Future of Nuclear Power in a Low-Carbon World: The Need for Dispatchable Energy”, MIT-ANP-TR-171, Nov. 2017

RN&S: natural gas, solar, wind, pumped hydro and battery storage +DMS1: all of the above RN&S plus demand side management +DR1: all of the above plus demand response (curtailment) RN&S & LWR: RN&S plus LWR +DMS2: all of the above RN&S & LWR plus demand side management +DR2: all of the above plus demand response CHP: all of the above plus heat storage and combined heat and power systems NACC: Nuclear Air-Brayton Combined Cycle

Cost of decarbonized electricity

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In the long run… Nuclear hybrid production: Industrial heat/Energy carrier

Using HTGR, SFR, Molten Salt Reactor….

HTTR (JAEA, Japan)

  • Operated at 950 deg C
  • Hydrogen production by

thermochemical water splitting on lab. Scale

  • While reactor is kept at

rated power, use of control valves and bypass valves enables automatic response (in production of electricity and hydrogen) following grid demand change

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[source] C. Forsberg, MIT

Candidate reactor technologies for hybrid production and nuclear topping cycle

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  • Coal-fired plants reaching 610 deg. C steam condition
  • Gas turbine reaching 1800 deg. C by blade cooling and resistant material

[SOURCE] Univ. of Virginia

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[source] Shannon Bragg-Sitton, Light Water and High Temperature Reactor Opportunities, June 2016 Golden WS

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Hybrid production by intermittent renewables: P2G

Power to gas project (Germany)

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（Existing）FIT-CfD, Curtailment of intermittent renewables etc.

  • Use of MAC (Marginal Abatement Cost) curve for policy making
  • Carbon tax
  • FIT for all low carbon sources (technology-neutral)
  • Low-carbon Portfolio Standards
  • Subsidies to all storage as

infrastructure (tech-neutral)

What changes in market rules are required for both to stand?

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[Photo] Forbes, 2016 August, Albany NY

Key is “clean energy equality”

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Published papers and webinar

1) MIT-J study reports, 2016 April & 2017 Sept 2) AESJ, 2016 April & 2018 April 3) CEM webinar, 1/2Nov2018

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a- axHsnGUA&index=6&t=0s&list=PLKRmGa9s99JU 9y8VL7Fjn812Wv0vr_m2f

4) IFNEC/NICE FUTURE meting, Nov2018

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  • 1. Renewable energy aspiration & reality

may coincide with valuation on decentralization, “nature knows best”, “small is beautiful”

  • 2. Role of nuclear energy in carbon-constrained world
  • 3. Complementary use of Nuclear and Intermittent Renewables

for deep decarbonization with minimum burden to the Society

  • 4. High temperature reactors (HTGR, SFR, MSR…) for hybrid

production

  • 5. Uncertainties

warming by atmospheric CO2, energy saving, future price of battery, renewable power smoothing (EV, P2G…), PV in the market (J: Year 2019, 2022, 2032) etc. etc.

Take-aways

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….Thank you for your attention