1 Why Peninsular Malaysia Needs Nuclear Generation 2 Nuclear Power - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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1 2 3 5

Why Peninsular Malaysia Needs Nuclear Generation Nuclear Power Preparation and Steps Taken Garnering Public Acceptance The Prayer

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Nuclear Power Development Timelines

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Nuclear Renaissance – World Challenges, Nuclear Opportunities

• Megatrends – Demographic change, urbanization, climate change, globalization
• Drivers for new nuclear renaissance:
• Increasing energy demand; climate change; economics; insurance against future

price exposure; improved operation and performance records, security of supply, technology-intensive industries, and confidence building towards a culture of safety.

TMI (1979) Chernobyl (1986) Hiking of fossil fuel price Climate change Renewed interest Market expansion

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Why nuclear for Malaysia (3 E’s – Energy, Environment, Economy)

Energy security

Increasing energy demand but facing challenges such as indigenous natural gas depletion, dependency on foreign imported coal, limited hydro resources in Peninsular, slow uptake of RE, etc.

Environmentally-benign energy resources

Malaysia commitment on climate change and global warming mitigation.. The Prime Minister of Malaysia pledged on voluntary reduction of up to 40% in terms of emissions intensity of GDP by the year 2020 compared to 2005 levels (COP15 @ Copenhagen, Denmark).

Driver of New Economic Model (NEM)

High income nation. High-skilled knowledge-workers. Center of excellence and technology savvy. Uplift country’s international competitiveness.

6 6 Per Capita Income (USD)

current per capita income

business as usual ~7,000 ~15,500 ~17,500 High-Income Economies

Middle & Lower Income Economies

2010 2020 Eight Strategic Reform Initiatives (SRI’s)

TRANSFORMING MALAYSIA

average annual growth of 6.5%

1MALAYSIA: People First, Performance Now Preservation & Enhancement of Unity in Diversity GOVERNMENT TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMME (GTP) 6 National Key Results Areas (NKRA’s) for Effective Delivery of Government Services April 2009 January 2010 ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMME (ETP) 8 Strategic Reform Initiatives (SRI’s) & 12 National Key Economic Areas (NKEA’s) New Economic Model: A High-Income, Inclusive & Sustainable Nation

March 2010

10TH MALAYSIA PLAN Macroeconomic Growth Targets & Expenditure Allocation Smooth Implementation of Government’s Development Program June 2010

2015

11TH MALAYSIA PLAN

FOUR PILLARS TO ACHIEVE VISION 2020

Source: Key World Energy Statistics, 2008 and The World Fact Book, 2009 NE Asian Nuclear countries

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12 Entry Point Projects (EPP) and 7 Business Opportunities (BO) resulting USD24 bn GNI and 52K jobs in 2020

SOURCE: OGE NKEA Lab

GROW DIVERSIFY SUSTAIN

1. Enhanced oil recovery 2. Develop small fields 3. Increase exploration activities Make Malaysia # 1 Asian hub for oil field services 9. Reduce energy bill through energy efficiency

• 10. Build up solar power capacity
• 11. Ensure best practice nuclear

deployment

• 12. Drive industrial growth in

Sarawak with big hydro Build alternative energy capabilities 4. Unlock latent gas demand through LNG import 5. Create a regional oil storage and trading hub Grow in downstream Continue domestic Oil & Gas production 6. Increase presence of major international Oilfield services players 7. Create regional fabrication champions 8. Encourage JV with world-class companies

EPPs BO

1. Increased oil & gas production abroad

• 2. Increase volumes in primary logistics
• 3. Increase of petrochemical output

through process improvement

• 4. Increase marketing of petroleum

products

• 5. Growth driven power demand
• 6. Growth driven transmission and

distribution capacity

• 7. Improve structure of Malaysia

energy supply industry 2020 GNI impact: USD12.2 Billion 2020 GNI impact: USD7.22 Billion 2020 Total new jobs: 44,0002 2020 Total new jobs: 7,600

1 Assuming Bloomberg Brent future price curves for oil price (103 USD/ bbl in 2020); not including USD4.5 Bn from make-up GNI (i.e. GNI generated to maintain current oil production) 2 Not including “multiplier” effect of ~USD2.5 Billion and 27,000 new jobs coming from new industries that will develop on the back of a new gas supply (EPP 4)

2020 GNI impact: USD4.51 Billion 2020 Total new jobs: 600

2017

10 million tonnes regional oil storage and trading hub

2015

#1 oil field services hub in Asia - Regional HQ of MNCs, new regional champions

2014

Reduce energy bill by 5% through energy efficiency best practices

2013

First LNG imports into Malaysia to substitute expensive fuel and create new industries

2020

5 GW Hydro, up to 1.25GW Solar, 2 GW Nuclear power

INDICATIVE ONLY

SOURCE: OGE NKEA Lab

2010

Oil, Gas and Energy central to Malaysia economy (20% of GDP)

OGE vision in 2020: bigger, more value

adding, more efficient, and more diversified

Leading oil & gas producer in South East Asia

stable production at 550- 600 thousand barrels per day

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To have nuclear by 2021, the government must launch

If developed, nuclear would be cost competitive but it takes 10-11 years to build This requires for the government to start today with the preparatory phase International governance

▪ Sign/ratify relevant

treaties & conventions Regulatory context

▪ Put in place detailed

regulations Plant Site Acquisition

▪ Acquire approval

for plant sites

▪ Obtain public

support in locality Public education

▪ Promote public

acceptance

51 44 21 19 19 Gas CCGT Nuclear Coal Gas OCGT Solar (centrally generated) Comparative cost of energy & CO2 emission indicator Levelised cost of energy, RM sen/kWh

SOURCE: OGE lab; TNB data; IAEA data Assumptions: General: WACC 7.6%, 1USD = RM3.2 Coal: CAPEX USD1530/kWe, plant efficiency 46%, coal cost 5 USD/mmbtu, O&M cost of 6.16USD/MWh, load factor 85% Gas CCGT: CAPEX USD1000/KWe, plant efficiency 53%, gas price 8 USD/mmbtu, O&M cost of 5USD/MWh load factor 85% Gas OCGT: CAPEX USD700/KWe, plant efficiency 30%, gas price 8 USD/mmbtu, O&M cost of 5USD/MWh load factor 15% Solar centrally generated : CAPEX 2812USD/Kw O&M 1% of CAPEX, lifetime: 20 years, hours utilization 1,300/year

30 60

134 44

Pre-project activities Vendor procurement Construction & commissioning Fastest timeline supported by all stakeholders Months

ENERGY 2020 Total new jobs:

2,600

TODAY

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Hourly Load [GW]

Sort highest to lowest

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1460 2920 4380 5840 7300 8760

Hourly Load [GW]

Served by low-cost base load generators (e.g. nuclear) Served by medium-cost flexible generators (e.g., coal, combined cycles) Served by high-cost generators (e.g., gas turbines), also hydro

• The pattern/shape of the demand has a significant impact on the technology

selection

• Different technologies have different technical and economic characteristics and
• perational capabilities

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Load Profile on 20 May, 2010. Peak Demand: 15,037 MW (Latest) Minimum demand: 10,258 MW

Need to be supplied by Base Load Plants

Source: TNB-NEU, 2010

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Hydro Gas Coal

Coal (35%) Gas (~50%)

BASE LOAD DEMAND

Generation Profile

Source: TNB-NEU, 2010

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Peak demand is expected to grow by 3.2% between 2010-2020, overall( 2010-2030), the peak demand is expected to grow by 2.6%

Source: TNB-NEU, 2010

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Gas Oil Coal Hydro Distillate

Oil Natural gas Coal Hydro electric Distillate oil

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PRAI PORT KLANG CONNAUGHT BRIDGE SERDANG PORT DICKSON MELAKA

• P. GUDANG

SENOKO SEV / GB3

KUANTAN SEGAMAT

JERNEH (350mmscfd)

GPPs KERTEH (2000mmscfd)

KUALA LUMPUR

LAWIT/BINTANG (450mmascfd)

THAILAND

JDA (150mmscfd) PM-3 (220mmscfd) ANGSI (280mmscfd) GELUGOR TTPC PAKA

SONGKHLA

Associated Gas (385mmscfd) RESAK (200mmscfd) DUYONG (150mmscfd) West Natuna „B‟ (150mmscfd)

West Natuna A 100 mmscfd East Natuna 1000 mmscfd JDA Phase 2 300 mmscfd

• Petronas imports

around 25% of our gas from West Natuna (Indonesia) and JDA (Thailand)

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• Power sector needs 1350 mmscfd

at least until 2030.

• Local gas resources are depleting
• Future gas development will be

more challenging:

• High CO2
• Smaller fields
• Costly
• Future demand cannot be met

from indigenous sources. We need to import, most probably in the form of LNG.

Availability Of Natural Gas Supplied by Petronas

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Total Capacity ~ 1911 MW, including mini hydro in the Cameron Highlands Scheme

Hydro Power Stations in Pen. Malaysia

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Figure 1 Hydro Ranking Appraisal Study Project Location

TERENGGANU 1.Ulu Terengganu; 212MW PAHANG 1.Tekai; 156MW 2.Ulu Jelai; 372MW 3.Maran; 108MW 4.Telom; 132MW 5.Raub-Bentong; 70MW PERAK 1.Sg. Pelus; 35MW 2.Chenderoh Low Head; 10MW 3.Kerian-Selama; 21MW KELANTAN 1.Lebir (multipurpose); 270MW 2.Nenggiri (multipurpose); 416MW

Total remaining hydro potential in Peninsula is 1801.4 MW, mainly high cost peaking hydro

Based on SMEC Hydro Ranking Study 2005

Hydro Resources Potential

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• Renewable energy (RE) could provide more

contribution towards fuel diversification and emission reduction

• KeTTHA will roll out RE Act and Action Plan

which will include Feed-In Tariff

• Feed-In Tariff will enable energy from RE

sources be purchased at premium price - RE contribution is expected to increase

Renewable Energy Cost and Capacity Projections

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• Nuclear power provides

diversification and security

• f supply
• Nuclear is an economically

viable base load option

• Nuclear also provides power

without carbon emission

• The planning and

construction of a nuclear power plant requires longer lead time of about 10-15 years

Nuclear Energy Option

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4.8% 58.3% 36.9% 4.3% 52.5% 43.2% 4.0% 48.0% 48.0% 4.8% 42.5% 34.5% 18.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2030

Generation Mix (GWh) Scenario 1

Hydro Gas Coal Nuclear Gas Volume (mmscfd)

1350 1350 1350

• We need a balanced

development to ensure sustainable electricity supply

• 2 units of nuclear are available by

September 2021, hence reducing dependency on fossil fuel sources

• Gas is required to maintain
• perational flexibility, whilst coal

provides cheaper energy (when gas goes to market price)

• Nuclear will provide energy

diversification and security of supply

• Requires policy intervention

Balanced Development

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4.8% 58.3% 36.9% 4.3% 52.5% 39.7% 3.4% 4.0% 48.6% 41.5% 6.0% 4.7% 42.4% 32.4% 13.7% 6.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2015 2020 2030

Generation Mix (GWh) Scenario 3

Hydro SWAK Gas Coal Nuclear RE Gas Volume (mmscfd)

1350 1350 1350

• The RE projection in Peninsular is as

below:

– 2012: 270 MW – 2015: 745 MW – 2020: 1580 MW

• RE could also provide diversification,

less dependency on imports and more environment friendly

• RE capacity CANNOT substitute

conventional plants

• KeTTHA will introduce Feed-in Tariff.

It is expected that RE contribution will increase

• Close monitoring is required to

ensure lagging in RE capacity does not pose stability and adequacy impact to the power system

Strong Pursuit of RE

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• Malaysia is expected to face tougher times in the future

– Local energy resources are depleting, more dependency on imported fuels – Higher cost due to more imported fuel at market pricing

• Malaysia must be more prudent in managing risks and planning

– Need balanced development to distribute risks – Need to open supply options to all possible technologies in the future. We need all resources, gas, coal, hydro, renewable and nuclear. – Need to plan carefully for power system development, especially nuclear – Need to increase contribution from Demand Side Management (DSM) and Energy Efficiency (EE) especially in terms of policy and establishment of commercial mechanisms

Nuclear energy is required to ensure sustainable development for Malaysia

Energy Security

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2019 2025

Demand-Supply Gap Role of Nuclear!

Energy Demand Growth Without Policy Intervention Energy Resource & Supply Constraint Without Policy Intervention

NEED FOR NUCLEAR POWER TO FILL DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

Targeted Slower Energy Demand Growth With Policy Intervention Increase Energy Supply Options With Policy Intervention Nuclear energy need to fill energy demand-supply gap together with renewable energy on supply side & energy efficiency & demand-side management.

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Climate Change [1]

• Nuclear Power - the only proven and readily available large-scale alternative to fossil

fuels for production of continuous, reliable supply of electricity (i.e., meeting base- load demand).

• Practical alternative to reduce GHG.

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NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM WORKING COMMITTEE TNB REGULATORY DEVELOPMENT COORDINATION WORKING COMMITTEE AELB & EC KeTTHA NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT STEERING COMMITTEE CHAIRPERSON : PM SECRETARIAT: EPU, PMD CABINET COMMITTEE ON ENERGY NUCLEAR POWER PROJECT WORKING COMMITTEE Nuklear Malaysia

Malaysia NEPIO - JPPKN

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NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM WORKING COMMITTEE (MNA)

• Educational Program and Public

Awareness

• Human Capital Development
• Technology Assessment
• Site Identification
• Nuclear Fuel Procurement Planning
• Nuclear Power Plant Conceptual

Design

(including Project Management and Quality Assurance)

REGULATORY DEVELOPMENT COORDINATION WORKING COMMITTEE (AELB & ST)

• Regulation and Licensing of Electricity Generation
• Regulation and Licensing of Nuclear Power Plant

NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT STEERING COMMITTEE NUCLEAR POWER PROJECT WORKING COMMITTEE (TNB)

Malaysia „NEPIO‟ Deliverables

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Regulatory Activities-Roadmap

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

June 2009 Nuclear Installation Licensing (2010), Safeguard Regulations (2010), Nuclear Security Regulations (2010)

49 Documents related to RRx & NPP

MoU with BAPETEN, Indonesia (2008) MoU with KINS, Korea (2009) Safety, PP, & Security Fundamentals COC on Research Reactor Project initiation: 2010

Amendment/Repeal of Act 304 Development of New Regulations Adoption of IAEA Standards Bilateral Cooperation Emergency Response Centre

Regional Nuclear Security Support Centre Adoption & Application of IAEA Soft Laws Safeguard Laboratory

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Current status of Act, Regulations, Standards and Guides

Act 304, 1984

Radiation Protection (Transport) Regulation 1989 Radiation Protection (Licensing) Regulations 1986 Radiation Protection (Basic Safety Standard) 1988* Radiation Protection (Nuclear Installation Licensing) Regulation 200__

GS-G-1.6 Seismic Design and Qualification for NPP GS-G-3.3 Evaluation of Seismic Hazard for NPP GS-G-4.1 Format and Content of SAR for NPP NS-G-1.1 Software for Computer Based System Important to Safety in NPP NS-G-1.2 Safety Assessment and Verification for NPP NS-G-1.4 Design of Fuel Handling and Storage System For NPP NS-G-1.5 External Event Excluding Earthquake NS-G-1.7 Protection Against Internal Fires and Explosion In the Design of NPP NS-G-1.8 Design of Emergency Power System for NPP NS-G-1.9 Design of Reactor Coolant System and Associated System in NPP NS-G-1.10

Design of Reactor Containment System for NPP

NS-G-1.11 Protection against Internal Hazard Other than Fire and Explosion Design of NPP NS-G-1.12 Design of Reactor Core for NPP NS-G-1.13 Radiation Protection Aspect of Design for NPP NS-G-2.1 Fire Safety in the Operation of NPP NS-G-2.2 Operation Limit & Condition and Operating Procedures For NPP NS-G-2.3 Modification to NPP NS-G-2.4 The Operating Organization for NPP NS-G-2.5 Core Management and Fuel Handling for NPP NS-G-2.7 Radiation Protection and Radioactive Waste Management in the Operation of NPP NS-G-2.8 Recruitment, Qualification & Training of Personnel for NPP NS-G-2.9 Commissioning for NPP NS-R-1 Safety for NPP Design NS-G-2.10 Periodic Safety Review for NPP NS-G-2.11 A System for the Feedback of Experience From Events in Nuclear Installation NS-G-3.1 External Human Induce Event in Site Evaluation for NPP NS-G-3.2 Dispersion of Radioactive Material in Air and Water and Consideration of Population Distribution in Site Evaluation For NPP NS-G-3.4 Meteorological Event in Site Evaluation for NPP NS-G-3.5 Flood Hazard for NPP on Coastal and River Site NS-G-3.6 Geotechnical Aspect of Site Evaluation and Foundation for NPP WS-G-2.1 Decommissioning for Research Reactor and NPP NS-R-3 Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installation NS-R-2 Safety of NPP Operation

2009 Regulations- 1986- to date Standard - 2007 2011 -2015 2010

Guideline on Physical Protection of Nuclear Installation National Guideline on Safety Assessment And Preparation of SAR TBD Guideline on the Site Evaluation For Nuclear Installation Guideline for the Assessment of Reactor Modification TBD for 10th Malaysia Planning

2007

Legend Adopted (IAEA document) Preparation Revision Planning Published

Act - 1984

Standard for Certification and Re-certification

• f Research Reactor Operator

As of 31st August 2008 *Approved by AG in Jun 2007

2008

Radiation Protection (Radioactive Waste Management) Regulation 200_

Guideline for Approval Application of Transshipment for Nuclear Material Standard For Certification of Inspector and Assessor Guideline of Licensing Process for Nuclear Installation Guideline for Approval Application of Transit Of Nuclear Material Guideline for IAEA Safeguard Inspector Designation and Issuance of Multi-entrance Visa Guideline of Inspection Procedure for Research Reactors

Radiation Protection (Appeal) Regulation 1990

Radiation Protection (Security of Radioactive Material) Regulation 200_ Radiation Protection (Medical Devices) Regulation 200_ Radiation Protection (Nuclear Non Proliferation Import & Export) Regulation 200_

Guideline on National Emergency Preparedness and Response

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▪ Public opinion survey to identify priority

segments & concerns

▪ Awareness projects ▪ Transparency in project implementation

Public Acceptance

▪ Promote public acceptance ▪ Fast-track process and make government priority

International Governance

▪ Sign/ratify relevant treaties &

conventions

▪ Align on international best practices ▪ Top-down mandate to accelerate process ▪ Engage foreign experts to assess site &

construction permit applications Regulatory context

▪ Put in place detailed regulations ▪ Public information programme ▪ Option for localities to bid to host nuclear plants

as in Japan & Republic of Korea Nuclear Plant Site Acquisition

▪ Acquire approval for plant sites ▪ Obtain public support in locality ▪ Negotiate with vendors based on timeline

Construction timeline

▪ Require best-in-class timeline from

vendors Potential resolution Challenge

▪ Combine low-cost & market financing (e.g.

sovereign-guaranteed foreign export credits, foreign equity, commercial loans, including Islamic financing) Project Financing

▪ Obtain low-cost financing

33 Source: Nuclear Malaysia; Malaysia NKEA OGE Laboratory 2010.

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Action Action party

Comprehensive public opinion survey to identify priority segments of population & their respective key issues of concerns for more targeted and intensified public information efforts.

1

▪

NM, TNB, KeTTHA & MOSTI. Formulate & implement public information/communication and public participation plan with focus on key segments of population and key messages for the respective segments.

2

Expand & intensify current nuclear communicators training programme through international cooperation and assistance.

3

Intensify current non-partisan engagement with key national and State- level political, professional & public stakeholders in a timely, accurate and transparent manner.

4

Clarify national energy policy to justify and explain the role of nuclear power vis-à-vis other energy sources.

5 6 7

▪

NM, TNB, KeTTHA & MOSTI.

▪

NM.

▪

NM, TNB, KeTTHA & MOSTI.

▪

EPU & KeTTHA. Finalise the national nuclear policy to explain identified strategies to ensure the safety of nuclear power plants, final nuclear waste management and disposal, and sustainable public health and environmental safety, as well as assure nuclear fuel supply for national energy security.

▪

KeTTHA & MOSTI. Establish a non-partisan Parliamentary oversight mechanism to ensure transparency in nuclear power project implementation so as to promote sustainable public confidence and acceptance.

▪

PMO & JPM.

8 Twinning of potential localities for nuclear power plant sites with

corresponding foreign nuclear power plant localities for direct community-to-community relations.

▪

NM, TNB, KeTTHA & MOSTI.

Deadline

Public Acceptance

Challenge area

End 2010 From Jan 2011 with results of

• pinion survey

On-going since 2006 On-going since 2007 June 2010 in 10th Malaysia Plan July 2010

• Dec. 2010

June 2012 with final site selection Source: Nuclear Malaysia; Malaysia NKEA OGE Laboratory 2010.

Periodic public opinion surveys benchmarked to initial survey as baseline data & review of communications strategies & activities. Performance target-based monitoring

• f effectiveness
• f public information

activities. Twinning between local & foreign communities living near nuclear power plants. Foreign visits to nuclear communities by local media & opinion leaders. Public lectures, forum & dialogues, visits, exhibitions, publications, & media publicity & engagements. Intensified dissemination

• f information.

Identification

• f key concerns on

nuclear power for each segment for more targeted public information communication strategies. Objective assessment of public opinion by segment of population, by ethnic group, State of domicile, urban/rural, income & education, political affiliation,

• ccupation, etc.

Associate communicators, Such as ghost writers & proxy communicators. Specialised communicators for different target groups, especially with difficult targets. Communicator training for relevant agencies including media skills, situational training, public psychology, etc. Consistent message & coordinated response. One-stop Inter-agency resource & referral centre at Nuclear Malaysia. Accurate, timely &

• bjective

information. Information gathering & compilation. INFORMATION BASE COMMUNICATION SKILLS TARGET & ISSUE IDENTIFICATION PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION PERFORMANCE MONITORING 35

PUBLIC INFORMATION ON NUCLEAR ENERGY (PINE) PROGRAMME

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FOR POLITICAL STAKEHOLDERS:

• 1. Nobel Laureate Talk by
• Dr. Mohamed El Baradei,

then Director General of IAEA, at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre on 18 July 2007;

• 2. Luncheon Talk for Political Stakeholders on

Nuclear Energy at the Parliament on 25 Nov. 2009;

• 3. Dinner Talk on Nuclear Energy

for Members of Parliament & Senators

• rganised by KeTTHA

at Le Meridien Hotel, Kuala Lumpur,

• n 30 June 2010;
• 4. Selangor Conference on Alternative

& Renewable Energy (SelCARE’09)

• rganised by Selangor State Govt.

for Pakatan Rakyat Members of Parliament and State Legislative Assemblies from throughout Malaysia in Subang Jaya

• n 15 Oct. 2009;
• 5. Regular Parliamentary debates.

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FOR PROFESSIONAL & PUBLIC STAKEHOLDERS:

• 1. Series of PINE Seminars & Forum

for representatives of Government agencies & companies, power & support industries, professional & civil society organisations, including anti-nuclear organisations, academia, students, etc;

• 2. Series of Inter-Agency Familiarisation Workshops on

Nuclear Power Policy, Planning & Implementation Requirements for implementing agencies & industry organisations.

38 civic society, mass media, non-governmental organisations (NGO’s), religious, women & other civic organisations, teacher training colleges, university & school students, general public. local Government, community leaders, village heads, local associations, such as farmers & fishermen associations, schools, etc. GENERAL CIVIL SOCIETY & PUBLIC STAKEHOLDERS STATE & LOCAL STAKEHOLDERS AROUND NUCLEAR PLANT SITES

BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE AT NATIONAL & LOCAL LEVELS

PUBLIC INFORMATION & ACCEPTANCE TARGETS: 70% public acceptance by end 2012 Why nuclear? Why not solar? Is it safe? What about the waste? Isn’t it too expensive? Where to get the fuel? Nuclear accidents? Public radiation exposure? Environmental impacts? Yes, but not in my backyard! Why build in this district? Is it safe for the people? Why build in this State? Won’t we lose the next election? Is it safe? What benefit to the State? Why build here? Is it safe for us? Accident effect? Won’t our food, fish, vegetable supply be contaminated? Our children? Our river, our beach?

STATE GOVERNMENTS MUNICIPAL AUTHORITIES NATIONAL PUBLIC OPINION NIMBY, BANANA!* LOCAL POPULATION

*NIMBY = Not in My Backyard *BANANA = Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything

39

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MILESTONE 1 Ready to make a knowledgeable commitment To a nuclear programme MILESTONE 2 Ready to invite bids for the first NPP MILESTONE 3 Ready to commission and Operate the first NPP Consideration before a Decision to launch a nuclear power programme is taken PHASE 1 Preparatory work for the Construction of NPP after A policy decision has been taken PHASE 2 Activities to implement a first NPP PHASE 3 Maintenance and continuous Infrastructure improvement Nuclear power option Included within the national Energy strategy Infrastructure development programme 1st NPP project Feasibility Study Bidding process Commissioning ?10-15 years Pre-project Project decision making Construction Operation/decommissioning

Source:NG-T-3.2 Evaluation of status of national nuclear infrastructure development, 2008

42

Activities to implement first NPP Preparatory work for construction of a NPP after a policy decision has been taken Considerations before decision to launch nuclear power program is taken Readiness to include nuclear as a national energy strategy option PHASE 0 PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 Maintenance and continuous infrastructure improvement Infrastructure development programme Pre-project Project definition Construction Ops

Policy decision Investment feasibility study Procurement process Commissioning Nuclear power is considered as a possible option

MILESTONE 0

Ready to include nuclear as realistic national energy strategy option

MILESTONE 1

Ready to make commitment to a nuclear

MILESTONE 2

Ready to invite bids for the first NPP

MILESTONE 3

Ready to commission and

• perate first NPP

Pre-policy

2008 2010 2013 2014 2021

Investment analyses

16 July 2010 (Govt. adopted national nuclear policy)

43

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• Jan. 2006:

Comprehensive Paper

• n Nuclear Energy

by Nuclear Malaysia to the Government

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

June 2009: Government decision for nuclear energy to be one of fuel options for electricity supply post-2020, especially for Peninsular Malaysia & establishment of the Nuclear Power Development Steering Committee (JPPKN)

• Aug. 2008 :

2009 Budget Speech in Parliament to, inter alia, explore nuclear energy & formulate a new National Energy Policy March 2010: Launching of Part 1 of New Economic Model (NEM) June 2010: Launching of 10th Malaysia Plan in the Parliament, which incorporated a New National Energy Policy with nuclear energy as longer term option for the Peninsula, with feasibility study, human capital training & awareness campaigns. October 2010: Launching of Part 2 of the New Economic Model, incorporating the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). July 2010: Government adoption of the National Nuclear Policy

45

ADOPTED: 16 JULY 2010

MISSION To enhance the national capability & competency for peaceful, safe & secure utilisation of nuclear energy & technology for sustainable development & national well-being through technological innovation & appropriate legal & regulatory framework towards eventual technological self-reliance. OBJECTIVE Energy Applications To enhance the national readiness for the utilisation of nuclear energy as one of the fuel options for electricity generation to ensure energy supply security post-2020. OBJECTIVE Non-Energy Applications To enhance nuclear & radiation technology innovation & application in various industrial sectors, healthcare, agriculture, resource management & environmental protection towards enhancing national economic competitiveness, societal well-being, food & water security, and sustainable development in line with other relevant national policies, particularly the national policies for the relevant sectors of applications. THRUST 1: Energy THRUST 2: Industry THRUST 3: Medicine & Healthcare THRUST 4: Food & Agriculture THRUST 5; Water, Natural Resource & Environmental Management VISION Peaceful, safe & secure utilisation of nuclear energy & technology for national well-being & sustainable development FIVE SECTORAL APPLICATION THRUST AREAS FIVE CAPACITY-BUILDING THRUST AREAS AS FOUNDATION THRUST 6: Research, Development & Application THRUST 7: Comprehensive Nuclear Legislation & Regulations THRUST 8: Human Capital Development & Competency THRUST 9: Public Information THRUST 10: Compliance with International Nuclear Governance

IAEA Guideline Activities Status Phase “0” Nuclear Roadmap for Malaysia Completed in Feb 2009 Phase “0” NPP Site Screening Completed in August 2009 Phase “0” Establishment of JPPKN (NEPIO) Commenced in July 2009 Phase “0” Pre-Feasibility Study Completed in June 2010 Milestone “0” Decision to adopt National Nuclear Policy 16 July 2010 Phase “1” Site Survey and Ranking On-going Phase “1” Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development Plan (NPIDP)

• HRD, Industry Support, Technology

Development, Legal Framework and Public Information /Public Acceptance (PI/PA) Waiting Government decision to proceed and subsequent appointment

• f consultant. Malaysian Nuclear

Interest Group was officially launched

• n 10 August 2010

Phase “1” Project Feasibility Study Waiting Government decision to proceed and subsequent appointment

• f consultant

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• TNB-KEPCO Joint Workshop was held on 28-29 June 2010. Attendees include

Government Officials and NGOs.

• TNB Board was briefed on project findings and recommendations on 30th June

2010.

• A Copy of Final Report was submitted to the Government (EPU, EC, KeTTHA,

MOSTI) on 15 July 2010. A major output is Master NPP Project Schedule.

TNB-KEPCO Preliminary Feasibility Study, Joint Workshop 28-29 June 2010 Marriott Hotel, Putrajaya

48

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Pre-FS Finish (Jun.) Feasibility Study Finish (Mar.) Major Contract Award (Aug.) Site License/Permit (Sep.) Start Site Grading (Feb.)

2022

Submit PSAR (Mar.) Start Excavation (Dec.) Construction Permit (Aug.) First Concrete Pouring Date (Sep.) Set Reactor Pressure Vessel (Jul.) Initial Power Supply (Jun.) Cold Hydro Test (Apr.) #1 Unit COD (Jul.) Operation License (Nov.) Hot Function Test (Aug.) Grid Sync. (Jan.) #2 Unit COD (Jul.)

Pre-Award (TNB/SPV driven) Post-Award (Main contractor driven) Simplified Overall Master Project Schedule

Fuel Loading (Dec.)

TNB-KEPCO Preliminary Feasibility Study, Joint Workshop 28-29 June 2010 Marriott Hotel, Putrajaya

49

National 4-in-1 Activities to be Implemented 1. Project Feasibility Study i. Energy Economics ii. Technology and Safety of Nuclear Power

• iii. Nuclear Fuel & Radwaste Management
• iv. Financing Assessment

v. Project Development and Project Management 2. NPIDP i. Legal Framework and Licensing Process ii. National Human Resource Capability Assessment and Development

• iii. Industrial Capability Assessment and Development
• iv. Nuclear Power Technological Capability Assessment and Technology

Development Road-Map v. Public Communication Strategy and Plan on Nuclear Energy 3. Site Evaluation Investigation on Preferred Site & Alternative Site 4. Invitation to Bid (ITB) Preparation of Bid Document

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 TNB has proposed to simultaneously carry out Site Evaluation together with Project Feasibility Study, Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development Plan (NPIDP) and Invitation to Bid (ITB) in order to achieve COD in 2021. However, it is still uncertain if adequate budget, estimated at USD 30 million, can be made available in 2011- 2012.  The Hon. Minister of Energy, GT and Water stated in Dewan Negara

• n 19 July 2010 that final decision to proceed with NPP project

implementation will only be made in 2013, whereas the Master Project Schedule in the TNB-KEPCO Pre-FS report proposed Contract Award in August 2013.  NPIDP will be prepared alongside the nuclear Project Feasibility Study as basis for the Government to make the GO NUCLEAR decision.

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To propel the national economy forward, historically nuclear energy has always been the last option. On 25th October 2010, history was made in Malaysia when nuclear energy is identified as one of the 131 Entry Point Projects (EPP) under the Oil, Gas & Energy (OGE) New Key Economic Areas (NKEA).

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• Peninsular Malaysia needs nuclear electricity, post-2020 for a balanced and

diverse energy mix. Do not put all your eggs in one basket!

• Announcement was made by the Minister of Energy, Green Technology & Water
• n 04 May 2010 targeting COD of 1st NPP by the year 2021 and Nuclear Power

Policy was approved by Cabinet on 16 July 2010.

• TNB-KEPCO has prepared a Nuclear Timeline to achieve COD of first NPP by 2021

and NKEA team in Prime Minister’s Dept also prepared a similar Nuclear Timeline.

• There are convergence on COD of 1st NPP and 2nd NPP in both nuclear timelines

but also differences on when some pre-construction activities should take place.

• TNB & KEPCO are collaborating to identify the candidate NPP site by 2011
• The 4-in-1 preparatory activities need to be undertaken with utmost urgency.

“We have no time to experiment with visionary energy sources; civilization is in imminent danger and has to use nuclear – the one safe, available, energy source – now or suffer the pain soon to be inflicted by our outraged planet.” – James Lovelock

Leading Environmentalist May 2004

Nuclear Energy is the only large-scale cost- effective energy source that can reduce green- house gas emissions while continuing to satisfy a growing demand for power. And these days it can do it safely.” – Patrick Moore

Environmental Activist April 2006

The authors would like to thank Tenaga Nasional Berhad, Atomic Energy Licensing Board, Malaysian Nuclear Agency Malaysia for the information used in this presentation

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Technology-Intensive Industries

• Spur development in multiple high-tech industries.

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Source : KEPCO, Korea,(2008)

KEPCO 24 Hours Load Profile

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TEPCO 24 Hours Load Profile

Source: TEPCO, Japan (2009)

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Source: Petronas

Price will determine which direction excess available volume will head to.

Prospects of LNG Resources

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Climate Change [2]

• Global emissions will grow 62% between now and 2030, with developing countries’

emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s.

[Source: IEA and INC09’]

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Content Management

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Site Permit (SP) on 30 September 2012

Pre-Award (TNB/SPV driven)

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APR 1400 AP 1000 ABWR 1300-1500 EPR 1600 Vendor KEPCO Westinghouse GE-Hitachi AREVA *Construction (month) 50 48 42 52 FL - COD 9 6 6? 6? Nth unit FCD-COD (month) 48 42 ? ?

FCD: First Concrete Date; FL : Fuel Loading; COD: Commercial Operation Date

FCD FL

Construction

COD

* Construction duration is from FCD to FL

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 TNB has an on-going Site Selection and Ranking study and has

shortlisted five (5) candidate sites, after peer review by KEPCO E&C. We plan to brief KeTTHA and seek endorsement of the 5 sites.

 After further on-site data collection and analysis, the 5 sites will be

re-ranked to select the preferred candidate site and an alternative

• site. The two (2) sites will then be recommended for Government

approval to carry out detailed Site Evaluation on one or both of them.

 As per estimate in TNB-KEPCO Pre-FS report, Site Evaluation is

expected to cost USD 12 million encompassing setting up a meteorological tower and detailed analysis on geology, seismicity, hydrology, etc. on each site. (A Site Evaluation study by Tractebel Engineering

• f GDF Suez for Jordan Atomic Energy Commission is reported to cost USD 12

million)

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OIL, GAS & ENERGY - EPP 11

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