What the E c onomists Say & What it Me ans to VB 2 Ge tting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

What the E c onomists Say & What it Me ans to VB

2 Ge tting Be tte r … Slowly!!!!

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion Economists Growth Post- Re c e ssion Re a l GRP Bla c ksbur g - 2.36 Christia nsburg - Ra dfor d, VA 2.35 Cha rlotte sville , VA 1.40 Winc he ste r , VA- WV 1.15 King spor t- Br istol- Bristol, T N- VA 1.06 Ric hmond, VA Wa shing ton- Ar ling ton- 1.00 Ale xa ndr ia , DC- VA- MD- WV 0.31 Virg inia Be a c h- Norfolk- Ne wport Ne ws, VA- NC ) 0.28 Ha r risonburg , VA 0.14 Sta unton- Wa yne sboro, VA - 0.18 Roa noke , VA 3 - 0.50 L ync hburg , VA

Housing Re c ove r y

Numbe r of E xisting and Ne w 5 Constr uc tion Home s Sold Hampton Roads: 2002-2015* New Construction Percent New Year Existing Homes Sold Homes Sold Construction 2002 19,869 4,969 20.0% 2003 21,421 4,757 18.2% 2004 23,548 4,587 16.3% 2005 24,755 4,379 15.0% 2006 22,405 4,327 16.2% 2007 19,154 3,912 17.0% 2008 15,046 3,178 17.4% 2009 15,851 2,673 14.4% 2010 14,703 2,265 13.4% 2011 15,818 2,366 13.0% 2012 16,856 2,664 13.6% 2013 18,791 2,878 13.3% 2014 18,700 2,485 11.7% 2015* 15,733 2,156 12.1% Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties listed through REIN by REIN members, may not represent all new construction activity in our region.

Number of Active Listing of Distressed 6 Homes (REO & Short Sales) Hampton Roads: June 2008 to September 2015 3,500 3,224 September 2015: 1,592 3,000 Peak: 3,224 (November 2010) 2,500 2,000 1,592 1,500 1,000 500 0 De c -… De c -… De c -… De c -… De c -… De c -… De c -… Jun-08 Se p-08 Ma r-09 Jun-09 Se p-09 Ma r-10 Jun-10 Se p-10 Ma r-11 Jun-11 Se p-11 Ma r-12 Jun-12 Se p-12 Ma r-13 Jun-13 Se p-13 Ma r-14 Jun-14 Se p-14 Ma r-15 Jun-15 Se p-15 Source: Real Estate Information Network (REIN) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.

Change in Asse sse d 7 Value of Re al E state Residential Commercial Total 25% nge 20% Chang 15% nt C Projected Percent 10% 5% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -5% -10% Fi Fiscal Y Year So urc e Re a l E sta te Asse sso r’ s Offic e

Consume r Confide nc e

9 Consume r Confide nc e Inde x 140.0 120.0 100.0 90 rcent 80.0 Perc 60.0 40.0 50 20.0 0.0 Mont nth a and nd Y Year So urc e : Co nsume r Co nfide nc e Bo a rd

Consume r Pr ic e Inde x 10 6.0% 5.4% 5.0% 3.8% 4.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 So urc e : U.S. Bure a u o f L a b o r Sta tistic s

Household Net Worth 11 Percent of disposable personal income Q2. Source: Federal Reserve, Richmond BA Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States via Haver Analytics

Disposable Personal Income & 12 Expenditures 6 6 12 Month percentage change 5 5 4 4 Real Disposable Personal Income 3 3 2 2 August 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 Month over Month % Change -2 -2 June July August Income 0.2 0.4 0.3 -3 -3 Real Personal Expenditures 0.1 0.3 0.4 Consumption Expenditure -4 -4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Real disposable personal Income was adjusted to remove Source: Federal Reserve, Richmond VA Bureau tax-induced income shifting near end of 2012 . of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics

Me dian House hold Inc ome 13 $75,000 $68,816 $70,000 $65,776 $65,000 $61,626 HOUSANDS $59,298 $60,000 $55,000 T $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YE ARS Vir ginia Be ac h Unite d State s Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey

De fe nse

Caps on De fe nse Spe nding 15 700 650 Billio ns 600 550 500 450 F Y12 F Y13 F Y14 F Y15 F Y16 F Y17 F Y18 F Y19 F Y20 F Y21 BCA 2011 Se q ue stra tio n BBA 2013 BA 2015 Source: BCA2011, Budget Requests for FY14, CBO Sequestration Update Report and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project

Hampton Roads Gross Regional 16 Product Attributable to DOD Spending 1984-2015 49.5% 48.8% 50% 44.9% 40.3% 39.3% 40% 32.8% 30% 20% 10% 0% So urc e : ODU Sta te o f the Re g io n Re po rt, 2015

E mployme nt

Unemployment Rate 18 Percent FOMC projection is the median, range, and central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the September 2015 meeting. Grey Boxes indicate median projections September FOMC Projection 5.1% Source: Federal Reserve, Richmond VA, Bureau of Labor Statistics & Board of Governors via Haver Analytics

Une mployme nt Rate 19 Vir ginia Be ac h Vir ginia U.S. 12.0 10.0 8.0 NT RCE 6.0 PE 4.0 2.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YE AR Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor & Statistics

Re ve nue s

Re ve nue Proje c tions 21 Ke y Assumptions  No c ha ng e in ta x ra te s  No use o f fund b a la nc e  Re g io na l E c o no mists indic a te a slo wly impro ving re g io na l e c o no my  Give n F e de ra l Budg e t, funding fo r sc ho o ls a nd c ity se rvic e s will b e minima lly impa c te d

Ave r age Re ve nue Gr owth 22 Rate s by De c ade 16.0% 13.8% 14.0% 12.0% 9.4% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.8% 4.0% 1.5% 2.0% - 0.1% 0.0% 80-90 90-00 00-10 10-14 15-20 -2.0%

Re al E state T ax Re ve nue 23 Budge t Ac tual Pr oje c tion $580 $560 Each 1¢ increase = = $5.2 mil illio lion $540 $520 Millions $500 $480 $460 6¢ $440 2¢ $420 -2¢ $400 $380 F Y 2012 F Y 2013 F Y 2014 F Y 2015 F Y 2016 F Y 2017 F Y 2018 F Y 2019 F Y 2020 F Y 2021 Ge ne ra l F und o nly

Ve hic le s 2% (PPT RA) 24 Ve hic le s 1% 18% 37% Public Se r vic e Busine ss E quipme nt 42% Othe r Pe r sonal Pr ope r ty T ax Budg e t Ac tua l Pro je c tio n $160 $150 $140 Millions $130 30¢ $120 E ac h 10¢ inc r e ase on the ve hic le por tion of $110 the pe r sonal pr ope r ty tax = $3.6 million $100 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 F isc al Ye ar

Re staur ant Me als 25 Budget Actual Projection $55 $50 $45 $40 $35 Millions $30 $25 $20 $15 E ac h 1% r ate inc r e ase = $7 million $10 $5 $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year Ge ne ra l F und o nly

Sale s T axe s 26 Genera ral S l Sales Tax $70 $65 $60 Millions $55 Budget Actual Projection $50 $45 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year State Sh St Shar ared Sal Sales T Tax ax $80 $75 Millions $70 $65 Budget Actual Projected $60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fiscal Year So urc e : Bud g e t a nd Ma na g e me nt Se rvic e s

Base Re ve nue * F or e c ast 27 $1,700 $1,650 $1,600 Millio ns $1,550 $1,485 $1,500 $1,513 $1,437 $1,450 $1,458 $1,394 $1,400 $1,415 $1,350 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 F isc a l Ye a rs * Ne t o f Sc ho o l T ra nsfe r

Sc hool Re ve nue s 28 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 Millio ns Sta te F unding City F unding

E xpe nditur e s

E xpe nditure Proje c tions 30 Ke y Assumptions  No pa y inc re a se s  5% inc re a se in he a lth insura nc e c o ntrib utio n  VRS c o ntrib utio n inc re a se  Ope ra ting c o sts inc re a se b y infla tio n  De b t se rvic e b a se d o n Cha rte r De b t c a pa c ity

De mand for Se r vic e s 31 If de mand was c onsiste nt, all bar s would be flat at the 2000 le ve l of 100 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Fis iscal Y Year ars So urc e : Bud g e t a nd Ma na g e me nt Se rvic e s

Salar y and F r inge Be ne fits 32 City Sc ho o l $700 $629 $618 $615 $622 $625 $600 $500 Millio ns $400 $300 $403 $390 $395 $399 $200 $386 $100 $0 F Y 2016-17 F Y 2017-18 F Y 2018-19 F Y 2019-20 F Y 2020-21 F isc a l Ye a rs

City and Sc hool E mploye r 33 Contr ibution to He alth and Pe nsion Pr oje c te d $140 $120 $100 Millions $80 $60 $40 $20 $- 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 F isc a l Ye a rs VRS He alth Insur anc e

City and Sc hool 34 Ope r ating Costs* City Sc ho o l $500 $400 Millio ns $300 $316 $298 $304 $324 $291 $200 $155 $155 $154 $152 $155 $100 $- F Y 2016-17 F Y 2017-18 F Y 2018-19 F Y 2019-20 F Y 2020-21 F isc a l Ye a rs * Ne t o f Sc ho o l T ra nsfe r fro m the Ge ne ra l F und