Whats Driving the Utah Economy? Presentation for WSATA September - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

What’s Driving the Utah Economy?

Presentation for WSATA September 2018 Eric Cropper Senior Economist Utah State Tax Commission

2017 2017 To Total Non Non Fa Farm Em Emplo ployment (P (Per ercen cent Chang Change)

To Top 10 10 St States es Em Emplo ployment Gr Growt

• wth (2010

(2010‐2017) 2017)

Top 10 States Growth in Total Non Farm Employment Compound Annual Growth Rate in Total Non Farm Employment

Utah 24.15% 3.14% Nevada 19.97% 2.63% Colorado 19.68% 2.60% Florida 19.43% 2.57% Idaho 18.86% 2.50% Texas 17.84% 2.37% California 17.68% 2.35% Washington 17.27% 2.30% Oregon 16.92% 2.26% Arizona 16.19% 2.17%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• 8.0%
• 6.0%
• 4.0%
• 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Utah US

Ra Rate of

• f Em

Emplo ployment Chang Change U. U.S. and and Ut Utah ah

70 80 90 00 10

Wh What at is is Dri Driving Ut Utah’ ah’s Em Emplo ployment Gr Growt

• wth?
• Unique Demographics
• Diversified Economy
• Strong Tourism Industry
• Clusters of High Growth Companies
• Business Friendly Tax/Regulatory Climate

Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2017 U.S. Rate = 29.9%

Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Grow ing Region in the Country

< 10%

Source: U.S Census Bureau

NM UT AZ CA NV OR TX OK CO WA ID MT WY ND SD MN NE KS IA MO AR LA WI IL IN OH FL TN KY MS AL GA SC NC VA WV PA NY ME AK HI MA VT NH RI CT NJ DE MD MI

30% to <70% 10% to <30% > 70%

Annual Annual Ra Rate of

• f Popula

pulation ion Chang Change ‐ Na Natur tural Incr Increase se (July (July 1, 1, 2016 2016 to to Ju July ly 1, 1, 2017) 2017)

Fertility rtility Ra Rate and and Househol Household Si Size – U – Utah & U. U.S.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Female Male Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2016 Female Male U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2016

Millions

Dominating the Labor Force

150 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 150 ,0 0 0 0 - 4 5- 9 10 - 14 15- 19 2 0 - 2 4 2 5- 2 9 3 0 - 3 4 3 5- 3 9 4 0 - 4 4 4 5- 4 9 50 - 54 55- 59 6 0 - 6 4 6 5- 6 9 70 - 74 75- 79 8 0 - 8 4 8 5+

Population

15 10 5 5 10 15 0 - 4 5- 9 10 - 14 15- 19 2 0 - 2 4 2 5- 2 9 3 0 - 3 4 3 5- 3 9 4 0 - 4 4 4 5- 4 9 50 - 54 55- 59 6 0 - 6 4 6 5- 6 9 70 - 74 75- 79 8 0 - 8 4 8 5+

Population

814 2,226 1,556 5,442 4,977 10,047 5,098 10,602 9,899 4,915 12,861 8,058 3,992 12,838

Mining Wholesale Trade Public Administration Other Services Manufacturing Business Services Retail Trade Financial Activities Education Leisure & Hospitality Transportation Healthcare Prof./Tech. Information Construction

Emplo Employmen ment Change Change by by Indus Industri trial Sect Sector

2015 - 2017

• 1,750

Me Measuring Di Diversity

Hachman Index for United States, 2017

0.5% 1.4% 1.1% 6.2% 11.2% 5.3% 7.1% 3.5% 4.5% 9.8% 12.5% 6.3% 1.5% 3.1% 1.3% 5.7% 0.9% 2.5% 2.8% 12.8% 1.0% 1.4% 1.6% 4.3% 11.8% 6.0% 5.9% 3.0% 4.9% 7.6% 13.4% 7.2% 1.9% 3.1% 1.1% 7.3% 1.0% 3.0% 2.2% 12.4%

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific, and technical services Management of companies and enterprises

• Admin. & support and waste mgmt. & remediation services

Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Government

Wha What Ut Utah ah Produces

• duces – U

– Utah & U. U.S. GDP GDP ‐ 2016 2016

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Regional Accounts data

Ut Utah ah To Total Skier Skier Da Days and and Na National tional Pa Park Re Recreation Vi Visits sits (m (million illions)

5.3 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.3 7.2 8.4 10.1 10.5 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 National Park Visits Skier Days

Source: Ski Utah and the U.S. National Park Service Compiled by Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Travel Association data

To Total Tr Travel & To Tourism Job Jobs ‐ Ut Utah ah

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Travel Association data

73850 74800 77800 81,700 86400 51650 51700 53700 56,300 60,100 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Direct Indirect & Induced

126,500 125,500 138,000 146,500 131,500

US US Change Change in in Em Emplo ployment by by Zip Zip Code Code Quin intile tile

Source: Economic Innovation Group ‐ https://eig.org/dci/escape‐velocity#interactives

• 28.1%
• 21.8%
• 18.2%
• 13.1%
• 8.2%
• 7.4%
• 6.5%
• 5.5%
• 1.5%
• 1.0%
• 0.7%

3.4% 3.7% 3.8% 4.4% 5.9% 6.7% 8.3% 8.6% 9.9% 13.4% 14.8% 16.2% 18.6% 19.0% 20.4% 22.3% 22.9% 32.2% Piute Emery Uintah Carbon Daggett Duchesne Juab Wayne Box Elder San Juan Garfield Tooele Rich Sanpete Beaver Sevier Iron Kane Millard Weber Morgan Cache Salt Lake Summit Washington Grand Davis Wasatch Utah

Ut Utah’ ah’s Coun County ty Emplo Employmen ment Expansi Expansion

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

From Pre-Recession High to Current

Hi High gh Gr Growt

• wth Companies

Companies

2018 2018 St State Business Business Ta Tax Clim limate In Index

Source: Tax Foundation ‐ https://taxfoundation.org/publications/state‐business‐tax‐climate‐index/

Ameri America' a's To Top St States es fo for Business Business 2016 2016

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/americas‐top‐states‐for‐business‐2016‐the‐list‐and‐ranking.html

We Well Ma Manage ged and and Fisc Fiscally ally Sound Sound St State

• Utah is one of only 10 states to hold a AAA bond rating from all three

rating agencies

• Ranked as the best state for business by Forbes in 6 of the last 8 years
• Consistently ranked among the top states in best for business and

best managed states

Concl Conclusi sion

• n
• Unique Demographics
• Diversified Economy
• Strong Tourism Industry
• Clusters of High Growth Companies
• Business Friendly Tax/Regulatory Climate