Water Supply Outlook: How El Nio is Affecting Californias Water - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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water supply outlook how el ni o is affecting california

Water Supply Outlook: How El Nio is Affecting Californias Water - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 10, 2023 191 likes •470 views

Water Supply Outlook: How El Nio is Affecting Californias Water Supply WateReuse Association Northern California Chapter Meeting Mark Bluestein Supervising Administrative Engineer February 26, 2016 What is El Nio? 2 What is El

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WateReuse Association Northern California Chapter Meeting Mark Bluestein

Supervising Administrative Engineer

February 26, 2016

Water Supply Outlook: How El Niño is Affecting California’s Water Supply

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What is El Niño?

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What is El Niño?

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Global Prevailing Winds

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Global Prevailing Winds

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La Niña vs El Niño La Niña El Niño

December 1988 December 1997 Stronger trade winds Weaker trade winds

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2016 Conditions: Strong El Niño

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El Niño - Southern Oscillation ENSO

La Niña El Niño

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El Niño - Southern Oscillation ENSO

La Niña El Niño

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El Nino Conditions Are Weakening

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Precipitation in California is usually greater during El Niño conditions

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Precipitation in California is usually greater during El Niño conditions

Sacramento Valley

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Drought Conditions Remain But Are Improving

September 29, 2015 February 16, 2016

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center

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Precipitation To Date

Mokelumne River Watershed

0.45 0.08 0.06 2.56 2016 Average

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5.83 11.45 10.9 2.06

INCHES

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Precipitation Departure from Average

11/27/15 – 2/24/16

Below average Above average

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Northern Sierra Precipitation

Source: California Data Exchange Center

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Central Sierra Precipitation

Source: California Data Exchange Center

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Southern Sierra Precipitation

Source: California Data Exchange Center

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Snow Pack Conditions

February 25, 2016

% of normal for this date % of April 1 average North 96% 83% Central 92% 78% South 84% 69% Statewide 91% 77% Snow Water Content

Source: California Data Exchange Center

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Surface Reservoir Conditions

February 23, 2016 Sacramento Region San Joaquin Region Tulare Region

Source: California Data Exchange Center

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Groundwater Level Changes

Fall 2011 to Fall 2015

Source: California Department of Water Resources

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Ten-day Forecast

Oakland, CA

Source: Weather Underground

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Longer-Term Precipitation Forecast

One-month outlook Three-month outlook

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Longer-Term Temperature Forecast

One-month outlook Three-month outlook

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Unimpaired Runoff Forecast April-July 2016

Exceedence Probability

Source: California Cooperative Snow Surveys

North South

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Summary

Strong El Niño this year, but ENSO Index is not as good a

predictor of precipitation in California as thought

Precipitation was above normal in December and January, but

February has been very dry

Above-average precipitation in March and April is forecasted
Snow pack greatly improved from last year, but may melt

earlier than normal

Surface reservoir storage is improving from the preceding dry

years, but likely will not recover fully this year

Groundwater levels were significantly lowered during the

recent drought and will take several wet-normal years to recover

La Niña conditions may occur next year
The effect of the drought is not over