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Water Supply Outlook: How El Nio is Affecting Californias Water - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Water Supply Outlook: How El Nio is Affecting Californias Water Supply WateReuse Association Northern California Chapter Meeting Mark Bluestein Supervising Administrative Engineer February 26, 2016 What is El Nio? 2 What is El


  1. Water Supply Outlook: How El Niño is Affecting California’s Water Supply WateReuse Association Northern California Chapter Meeting Mark Bluestein Supervising Administrative Engineer February 26, 2016

  2. What is El Niño? 2

  3. What is El Niño? 3

  4. Global Prevailing Winds

  5. Global Prevailing Winds

  6. La Niña vs El Niño La Niña Stronger trade winds December 1988 El Niño Weaker trade winds December 1997

  7. 2016 Conditions: Strong El Niño

  8. El Niño - Southern Oscillation ENSO El Niño La Niña

  9. El Niño - Southern Oscillation ENSO El Niño La Niña

  10. El Nino Conditions Are Weakening

  11. Precipitation in California is usually greater during El Niño conditions

  12. Precipitation in California is usually greater during El Niño conditions Sacramento Valley

  13. Drought Conditions Remain But Are Improving Source: National Drought Mitigation Center September 29, 2015 February 16, 2016

  14. Precipitation To Date Mokelumne River Watershed 11.45 10.9 2016 Average 2.06 INCHES 5.83 2.56 0.06 0.45 0.08 14

  15. Precipitation Departure from Average 11/27/15 – 2/24/16 Below average Above average

  16. Northern Sierra Precipitation Source: California Data Exchange Center

  17. Central Sierra Precipitation Source: California Data Exchange Center

  18. Southern Sierra Precipitation Source: California Data Exchange Center

  19. Snow Pack Conditions February 25, 2016 Snow Water Content % of normal % of for this date April 1 average North 96% 83% Central 92% 78% South 84% 69% Statewide 91% 77% Source: California Data Exchange Center

  20. Surface Reservoir Conditions Sacramento Region San Joaquin Region Tulare Region Source: February 23, 2016 California Data Exchange Center

  21. Groundwater Level Changes Fall 2011 to Fall 2015 Source: California Department of Water Resources

  22. Ten-day Forecast Oakland, CA Source: Weather Underground

  23. Longer-Term Precipitation Forecast One-month outlook Three-month outlook

  24. Longer-Term Temperature Forecast One-month outlook Three-month outlook

  25. Unimpaired Runoff Forecast April-July 2016 Exceedence Probability South North Source: California Cooperative Snow Surveys

  26. Summary Strong El Ni ñ o this year, but ENSO Index is not as good a • predictor of precipitation in California as thought Precipitation was above normal in December and January, but • February has been very dry Above-average precipitation in March and April is forecasted • Snow pack greatly improved from last year, but may melt • earlier than normal Surface reservoir storage is improving from the preceding dry • years, but likely will not recover fully this year Groundwater levels were significantly lowered during the • recent drought and will take several wet-normal years to recover La Ni ñ a conditions may occur next year • The effect of the drought is not over •

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