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The Real Implications: The Real Implications: Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity

Water Resources Water Resources Water Resources Water Resources

Geospatial World Forum 2014 Geospatial World Forum 2014 Geospatial World Forum 2014 Geospatial World Forum 2014 May 5 May 5-9, Geneva, Switzerland 9, Geneva, Switzerland Robert Shibatani Robert Shibatani

Managing Partner & Principal Hydrologist Managing Partner & Principal Hydrologist Managing Partner & Principal Hydrologist Managing Partner & Principal Hydrologist The SHIBATANI GROUP International The SHIBATANI GROUP International

Three Pinnacles of Climate Change Adaptation

Climate Change Science Infrastructure

Overarching Water Regulatory Framework Overarching Water Regulatory Framework

Flood Control Environmental Flows Water Supply Hydropower

Storing Water in Reservoirs Moving Water from Point A to Point B

Spatial Variability in Precipitation

Temporal Variability in Precipitation

Sacramento River System

Rainy Season Rainy Season Runoff Season Runoff Season Runoff Season Runoff Season

Two

Tw o-three m onth lag tim e is a function of snow pack three m onth lag tim e is a function of snow pack Tw o Tw o-three m onth lag tim e is a function of snow pack three m onth lag tim e is a function of snow pack storage storage

California Water Balance

Negative Storage Negative Storage

Reservoir Controlled Terminal Reservoirs

Central Valley Operations Center Joint Operations Center

Basin SWE & Storm tracks Basin SWE & Storm tracks Forecasted Inflow Downstream release requirements Downstream release requirements Delta water quality Exports Exports

Major Canal and Aqueduct Systems

Federal - Tracy State - Banks Delta Mendota CA Aqueduct Hetch Hetchy LA Aqueduct Colorado River Aqueduct All American

Why is it Important to Water Managers? Managers?

Progression of an Earlier and Altered Seasonal Progression of an Earlier and Altered Seasonal Runoff Response

Late-Fall/Mid Winter Late Spring/Summer

Seasonal Shift – Compared Against Existing Seasonal Shift – Compared Against Existing Regulatory Allowances

Snow Coverage Changes Snow Coverage Changes

Present Day Future - 2 C Temp. Rise

Snow losses losses Seasonal Melt Flux Seasonal Melt Flux

Source: J. Shafer-Kramer, DWR Bay-Delta Office Source: J. Shafer-Kramer, DWR Bay-Delta Office

California’s Watersheds California’s Watersheds

Comparison of monthly reservoir inflows (thousand acre-feet per month) for the historical (blue/dashed) and future per month) for the historical (blue/dashed) and future (red/solid) climate

From: Georgakakos, A.P. et al., 2012, “Value of Adaptive Water Resources Management in Northern California under Climatic Variability and Change: Reservoir Management”, JOUR. HYDROLOGY, Vols. 412-413, pp. 34-46.

California’s Future Climatic Variability

Scenario B1 Scenario A2 Mean Annual Precipitation mm/yr mm/yr April 1st SWE April 1st SWE mm Hydrograph Half H50

From: Costa-Cabral, M. et al., 2013 “Snowpack and Runoff Response to Climate Change in Owens Valley and Mono Lake Watersheds”, CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol.116, pp.97-109.

H50

Most Water Agencies in California Acknowledge this Shift Acknowledge this Shift

But is it really happening? But is it really happening?

DWR, Division of Flood Management, 2009

Spring-melt (April-July) has decreased by about 10% over last 100-years

Annual Hydrograph Shift –More Closely Annual Hydrograph Shift –More Closely

Upper American River Basin Big Creek Basin

350 400 /s) Historic 1975-2009 Early 21st Century 2010-2039 Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 350 400 /s) Historic 1975-2009 Early 21st Century 2010-2039 Mid 21st Century 2040-2069

Upper American River Basin Big Creek Basin

200 250 300 thly Runoff (m / Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 Late 21st Century 2070-2099 200 250 300 thly Runoff (m / Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 Late 21st Century 2070-2099

Today

Flattens

100 150 200 Average Monthl 100 150 200 verage M onthl

Tomorrow

Shifts

O N D J F M A M J J A S 50 Av O N D J F M A M J J A S 50 Av

Shifts

Source: From Vicuna, S. et al., 2008, "Climate Change Impacts on High Elevation Hydropower Generation in California's Sierra Nevada: A Case Study in the Upper American River, Climate Change, 87, 1):S123-S137.

W hat are the Im plications?

Water Supply Water Supply Water rights Contract allocations allocations Environmental Flows

W ater Rights/Contract Allocations W ater Rights/Contract Allocations

Perm itted Diversion Periods

120 140 m

3/s)

Historic 1975-2009 Early 21st Century 2010-2039 Mid 21st Century 2040-2069

December 1st to June 1

st

November 1st to May 1st January 1st to June 1st

80 100 ly R u n o ff (m

3

Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 Late 21st Century 2070-2099

January 1 to June 1 December 1st to April 30th July 1st to September 30th

Novem ber 30

th to

April 1

st

40

60

rag e M o n th ly

November 30 to April 1 April 1st to

Novem ber 30

th

20 40 A v era

Note: Actual Permit/License Diversion Periods 1916-1960; including cities, conservation

O N D J F M A M J J A S

including cities, conservation districts, and private water co.

Federal W ater Contract Allocations Federal W ater Contract Allocations

140

Example: Upper American River Basin

120 140 (m

3/s)

Historic 1975-2009 Early 21st Century 2010-2039 Mid 21st Century 2040-2069

CVP –begin in fall February 1st –Forecasts initiated Precipitation to date

50% Runoff Passed

80 100 h ly R u n o ff (m Late 21st Century 2070-2099

Precipitation to date SWE accumulation Runoff to date Incoming storm tracks

50% Runoff Passed Final Allocation

40 60 erag e M o n th l

Incoming storm tracks February 15th –First announcement Updated monthly

O

N D J F M A M J J A S

20 A v er

Updated monthly Final allocations –April, May or June

O

N D J F M A M J J A S

Upstream Reservoir Spills –Downstream Flood Control Flood Control

Upper American River Basin Big Creek Basin

Peak Reservoir Spills Peak Reservoir Spills

Today Tomorrow

February 15th

Source: From Vicuna, S. et al., 2008, "Climate Change Impacts on High Elevation Hydropower Generation

in California's Sierra Nevada: A Case Study in the Upper Am erican River, Clim ate Change, 87, 1):S123-

S137.

February 15th

Environm ental Flows & W ater Quality –Bay Delta W ater Quality –Bay Delta

V ariability in T

• tal Delta Inflow
• 2011 and 2008

2011 - WET 2008 - DRY

Environm ental Flows & W ater Quality – Bay Delta Bay Delta

Example D-1641 Flow/W

ater Quality Standards

Example D-1641 Flow/W

ater Quality Standards

Export/Inflow Ratio 65% 35% Vernalis Base Flows 65% 35% San Joaquin Salinity

Computed from U.S. Bureau of Reclamation CVOC –Water Accounting Reports –Delta Outflow Computation. Sum of Sacramento River at Freeport, SRWWTP Discharge, Yolo and Misc. Inflow, Eastside Streams, and San Joaquin River flows at

• Vernalis. Plotted as monthly daily average.

Shifted Delta Inflow Hydrograph Shifted Delta Inflow Hydrograph

T

• tal Delta Inflow

for 2011 and Hypothetical Future

Export/Inflow Ratios Future WET Year

Concluding Observations

Real Implications

R eal E ffects will be as much a res ult of R egulatory C

• ns

traints as the C limate Its elf

Real Implications

R eal E ffects will be as much a res ult of R egulatory C

• ns

traints as the C limate Its elf

Real Implications

R eal E ffects will be as much a res ult of R egulatory C

• ns

traints as the C limate Its elf

Real Implications

R eal E ffects will be as much a res ult of R egulatory C

• ns

traints as the C limate Its elf

Real Implications

R eal E ffects will be as much a res ult of R egulatory C

• ns

traints as the C limate Its elf

Real Implications

R eal E ffects will be as much a res ult of R egulatory C

• ns

traints as the C limate Its elf

Real Implications

R eal E ffects will be as much a res ult of R egulatory C

• ns

traints as the C limate Its elf

Real Implications

R eal E ffects will be as much a res ult of R egulatory C

• ns

traints as the C limate Its elf

Real Implications

R eal E ffects will be as much a res ult of R egulatory C

• ns

traints as the C limate Its elf

Concluding Observations

Hydrologic regime has, is, and will continue to shift Hydrologic regime has, is, and will continue to shift That shift – “growing gap” – with Regulatory/Operational governance Potential effect due to existing Regulatory/Operational governance is REAL! Need to adapt and redefine – both! In the interim – increasing struggle to meet regulatory Real Implications In the interim – increasing struggle to meet regulatory standards established using old out-of-date thresholds/assumptions Real Implications Real Effects will be as much a result of Regulatory Constraints as the Changing Climate Itself

The Real Implications: The Real Implications: Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Water Resources Water Resources

Thank You Thank You Thank You Thank You

Robert Shibatani Robert Shibatani

Managing Partner & Principal Hydrologist Managing Partner & Principal Hydrologist The SHIBATANI GROUP International The SHIBATANI GROUP International robert@theshibatanigroup.com robert@theshibatanigroup.com robert@theshibatanigroup.com robert@theshibatanigroup.com