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Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Center for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 25, 2023 275 likes •1.08k views

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University July 2, 2020 U. S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) $20,000 8 $19,000

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SLIDE 1

July 2, 2020

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University

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SLIDE 2
  • U. S. Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 2012 Dollars )

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $10,000 $11,000 $12,000 $13,000 $14,000 $15,000 $16,000 $17,000 $18,000 $19,000 $20,000

  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8

Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions)

% Q1 2019-Q1 2020 +0.32%

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SLIDE 3

Annual Change in U. S. Payroll Jobs

Month-Over-Year

  • 20500
  • 15500
  • 10500
  • 5500
  • 500

4500 9500 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Jun 2019 – Jun 2020

  • 13,226M
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SLIDE 4
  • 21000
  • 16000
  • 11000
  • 6000
  • 1000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US Payroll Job Change

Month-to-Month

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Jun 2020 – Jul 2020 +4.8M

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SLIDE 5

115000 120000 125000 130000 135000 140000 145000 150000 155000

  • 25000
  • 20000
  • 15000
  • 10000
  • 5000

5000 10000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1-mo. change (in thousands) total payroll jobs (in millions)

U.S. Payroll Jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Since 2010 (May 2010) +7.9M Since 2019 (12-mo. ∆)

  • 13.2M

Jun – Jul 2020 (1 mo. ∆) +4.8M

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SLIDE 6

U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector

12-Month Net Change (June 2020)

56

  • 286
  • 444
  • 707
  • 282
  • 330
  • 124
  • 743
  • 1,215
  • 4,486
  • 1,333
  • 1,574
  • 1,359
  • 5000.0 -4500.0 -4000.0 -3500.0 -3000.0 -2500.0 -2000.0 -1500.0 -1000.0 -500.0

0.0 500.0

Federal Govt. Information

  • Transp. & Util.

Other Services Wholesale Trade Construction Financial Manufacturing Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

total = -12.8M

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Ranked by Size in 2019 (000s)

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SLIDE 7

1 9 99 357 68 158 32 356 740 2,088 32 306 568 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Federal Govt. Information

  • Transp. & Util.

Other Services Wholesale Trade Construction Financial Manufacturing Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs (000s) Ranked by Size in 2019

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector

1-Month Net Change (Jun 2020)

total = +4.8M

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SLIDE 8
  • 10%

14% 49% 23% 61% 25% 44% 48% 44%

  • 56%

20% 38%

  • 100%
  • 50%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

Information

  • Transp. & Util.

Other Services Wholesale Trade Construction Financial Manufacturing Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs (000s) Ranked by Size in 2019

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector

Percentage of Job Gains since April Losses

total = +2.9M

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SLIDE 9

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

U.S. Unemployment Rate

%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Jun 2020 11.1% Jun – Jul 1-mo. ∆

  • 2.2%
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SLIDE 10

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

  • U. S. Unemployment

June 18.0%

U-6 UR LFPR

June 11.1% June 61.5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 62.25 62.50 62.75 63.00 63.25 63.50 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jun 2019- Jun 2020 (12-mo.) change: U-6 +10.8% UR +7.4% LFPR -1.5%

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SLIDE 11

175 1,175 2,175 3,175 4,175 5,175 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Jun 27 S.A. + 1.43M 2007-20 average 401.2k

(000s)

Initial Claims for Unemployment

4-Week Moving Average (2007-2020)

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SLIDE 12

200 1200 2200 3200 4200 5200 6200 7200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s)

Initial Claims for Unemployment

4-Week Moving Average (2011-2020)

Jun 27 S.A. + 1.43M 2011-20 average 383k

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SLIDE 13

300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average Weekly Earnings Real Average Weekly Earnings (1982-84 dollars)

12-month % change (MOTYC) Jun 2020 Avg Hourly Wages +5.0% Avg Weekly Earnings +5.3% Real Avg Weekly Earnings +7.3%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Average Weekly Earnings

  • U. S., Total Private, Across all Industries
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SLIDE 14

75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115

  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2

QOTYC Index

Labor Productivity

Nonfarm business, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Base year (100) = 2012

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SLIDE 15

40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Consumer Confidence

Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Expectations Index Present Situation Index

June 2020

  • Pres. = 86.2
  • Exp. = 106.0

(1985 = 100)

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SLIDE 16

Annual Consumer Prices 2001-2019

Year over Year % Change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  • 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

12-month % change

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SLIDE 17
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2

12-month % change

Monthly Consumer Prices

2001 – 2020

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 18

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

30-Yr 10-Yr Treas Fed

Interest Rates

2001 - 2019

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

%

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SLIDE 19
  • 3.50
  • 3.00
  • 2.50
  • 2.00
  • 1.50
  • 1.00
  • 0.50

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 1 9 5 3 1 9 5 5 1 9 5 7 1 9 5 9 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 5 1 9 6 7 1 9 6 9 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 1 2 3 2 5 2 7 2 9 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 5 2 1 7 2 1 9

10-year/1-year Treasury Yield

Constant Maturity Rate Yield Spread (1953-Present)

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

%

Note: horizontal axis “tick marks” reflect June 1 of each year

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SLIDE 20

350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Existing Home Sales New Home Sales

  • U. S. Home Sales

New and Existing (2013-Present)

(000s)

Source: U.S. Census (New Home Sales) [Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate], National Association of Realtors (Existing Home Sales)

(000s)

Existing Home Sales 12-month change May 19 – May 20

  • 26.64%

New Home Sales 12-month change May 19 – May 20 +13.04%

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SLIDE 21

Change in U. S. Personal Consumption Expenditures

5.1 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.2

  • 0.2
  • 1.3

1.7 1.9 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.7 2.7 2.5 2.6

  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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SLIDE 22

1.9

  • 0.1
  • 2.5

2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.3

  • 4
  • 2

2 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  • U. S. GDP Annual % Change

2007 – 2018

%

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SLIDE 23

The Washington Economy

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SLIDE 24

Elements of Population Change

Washington MSA

48,235 49,169 47,989 47,150 46,096 43,886 42,616 40,778 39,384 24,872 39,715 36,871 43,070 47,495 40,581 44,760 39,621 22,977 21,517 6,843 4,495

  • 24,741
  • 27,907
  • 31,010
  • 21,543
  • 30,581
  • 29,748
  • 40,000
  • 20,000

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Natural Increase Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.52%

Population Change

Source: U. S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program (2018 estimates)

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SLIDE 25
  • 300
  • 275
  • 250
  • 225
  • 200
  • 175
  • 150
  • 125
  • 100
  • 75
  • 50
  • 25

25 50 75 100 125 150 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Annual Job Change

Washington MSA (1991-2020)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

employees, in thousands

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SLIDE 26

Annual Job Change

Washington MSA (2012-2020)

2,900 3,000 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400 3,500

  • 370
  • 320
  • 270
  • 220
  • 170
  • 120
  • 70
  • 20

30 80 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

12-month net change total employees

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

thousands thousands

May 2020 Total: 3.04M May 19- May 20

  • 317k
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SLIDE 27
  • 350
  • 300
  • 250
  • 200
  • 150
  • 100
  • 50

50 100

  • 300
  • 250
  • 200
  • 150
  • 100
  • 50

50 100 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

DC SMD NoVA DC MSA

Annual Job Change

Washington MSA, DC-SMD-NoVA (2012-2020)

employees, in thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 28
  • 90
  • 70
  • 50
  • 30
  • 10

10 30 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Annual Job Change

District of Columbia (1991-2020)

employees, in thousands

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SLIDE 29

660 680 700 720 740 760 780 800 820

  • 80
  • 70
  • 60
  • 50
  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

12-month net change total employees

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

thousands thousands

May 2020 Total: 726.2k

Annual Job Change

District of Columbia (2012-2020)

May19- May 20

  • 67.2k
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SLIDE 30
  • 140
  • 120
  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

employees, in thousands

Annual Job Change

Suburban Maryland (1991-2020)

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SLIDE 31

800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050

  • 140
  • 120
  • 100
  • 80
  • 60
  • 40
  • 20

20 40 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

12-month net change total employees

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

thousands thousands

May 2020 Total: 914.6k

Annual Job Change

Suburban Maryland (2012-2020)

May 19- May 20

  • 46.6k
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SLIDE 32

1,200 1,250 1,300 1,350 1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600

  • 140.0
  • 120.0
  • 100.0
  • 80.0
  • 60.0
  • 40.0
  • 20.0

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

12-month net change total employees

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

thousands thousands

May 2020 Total: 1.38M

Annual Job Change

Northern Virginia (2012-2020)

May 19- May 20

  • 133.4k
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SLIDE 33

Employment Composition by Sector

Washington MSA May 2020

1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 5.2% 5.2% 6.5% 7.8% 6.0% 10.8% 12.1% 13.3% 24.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activites Construction Other Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality State & Local Government Federal Government Education & Health Services Professional & Business Services

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SLIDE 34

Job Change by Sector Washington MSA

May 2019 – May 2020

Total = -317,000

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  • 2.8
  • 2.4
  • 8.7
  • 2.9
  • 1.2
  • 8.4
  • 14.0
  • 32.2
  • 163.1
  • 20.5

4.0

  • 42.5
  • 22.3
  • 180.0
  • 160.0
  • 140.0
  • 120.0
  • 100.0
  • 80.0
  • 60.0
  • 40.0
  • 20.0

0.0 20.0 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Transport/Utilities Information Financial Construction Other Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt Federal Govt Educ & Health Svcs Prof/Business Svcs (Ranked by Size in 2019)

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SLIDE 35

Job Change by Sector Washington MSA

May 2020 – Jun 2020

(000s) Total = -6.8k

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

1.2

  • 1.4
  • 0.3
  • 2.2

2.3 0.5

  • 0.9

1.5

  • 0.1
  • 6.2

0.9 4.2

  • 6.3
  • 8.0
  • 6.0
  • 4.0
  • 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Transport/Utilities Information Financial Construction Other Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt Federal Govt Educ & Health Svcs Prof/Business Svcs (Ranked by Size in 2019)

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SLIDE 36
  • 30.0
  • 20.0
  • 10.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 640 660 680 700 720 740 760 780 800 MOTYC Total Jobs

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s) May 19- May 20

  • 22.3k
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SLIDE 37

600.0 620.0 640.0 660.0 680.0 700.0 720.0 740.0 760.0 780.0 800.0 820.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

  • 30.0
  • 20.0
  • 10.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Professional, Science & Tech MOTYC Admin Support & Waste Mgmt MOTYC Professional & Business Services Employees (total) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA

(000s) (000s)

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SLIDE 38

Federal Government Washington MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

May 2020 total: 366.7k (000s) (000s) 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 390

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MOTYC Total Jobs May 2019 – May 2020 +4.0k

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SLIDE 39

Federal Spending in the Washington MSA

Fiscal Years 1980-2019

4.2 5.0 5.8 6.7 7.7 9.0 10.7 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.6 14.6 15.6 16.1 17.9 19.4 20.8 21.7 24.8 27.7 29.3 32.1 37.1 44.0 52.6 54.5 57.1 59.1 67.9 75.8 80.0 78.0 76.0 70.6 73.1 74.0 78.5 83.5 88.7 82.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

| FY80-89 = $83.9B | | FY00-09 = $509.5B | | FY90-99 = $191.2B |

($ Billions)

Total = $1,569.3 Billion

Source: USAspending.gov

| FY10-19 = $784.7B |

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SLIDE 40

Job Change by Sector District of Columbia

May 2019 – May 2020

  • 0.2

0.2

  • 1.3
  • 1.3
  • 1.1
  • 2.8
  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.6
  • 49.6
  • 7.7
  • 4.9

2.5

  • 60.0
  • 50.0
  • 40.0
  • 30.0
  • 20.0
  • 10.0

0.0 10.0 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade

  • Transp. & Util.

Construction Information Retail Trade State & Local Govt Financial Other Services Leisure & Hosp. Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Federal Govt. (000s)

Total -67.2 k

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(Ranked by Size in 2019)

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SLIDE 41

Job Change by Sector District of Columbia

May 2020 – Jun 2020

0.0

  • 0.1
  • 0.4

0.3

  • 1.9
  • 0.3
  • 0.9

0.2

  • 0.1
  • 2.9
  • 1.9
  • 4.6

0.6

  • 5.0
  • 4.0
  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade

  • Transp. & Util.

Construction Information Retail Trade State & Local Govt Financial Other Services Leisure & Hosp. Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Federal Govt.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s)

Total -12.0k

(Ranked by Size in 2019)

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SLIDE 42

Job Change by Sector Suburban Maryland

May 2019 – May 2020

  • 2.5
  • 3.0
  • 3.0
  • 0.6
  • 0.5
  • 10.2
  • 4.7

1.1

  • 39.1
  • 13.9
  • 9.0
  • 18.0
  • 10.9
  • 45.0
  • 40.0
  • 35.0
  • 30.0
  • 25.0
  • 20.0
  • 15.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 Information Wholesale Trade

  • Transp. & Util.

Manufacturing Financial Other Services Construction Federal Govt. Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Total: -114.3k

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s) (Ranked by Size in 2019)

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SLIDE 43

Job Change by Sector Suburban Maryland

May 2020 – Jun 2020

  • 0.1

0.1

  • 0.4

0.7 2.0 0.2

  • 0.8

0.7 2.8 0.7

  • 1.6

3.9

  • 1.5
  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Information Wholesale Trade

  • Transp. & Util.

Manufacturing Financial Other Services Construction Federal Govt. Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Total: -6.7k

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s) (Ranked by Size in 2019)

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SLIDE 44

Job Change by Sector Northern Virginia

May 2019 – May 2020

  • 0.6
  • 0.8

1.3

  • 5.1
  • 9.4

0.6

  • 4.0

0.0

  • 12.9
  • 64.5
  • 7.4
  • 24.8
  • 5.8
  • 70.0
  • 60.0
  • 50.0
  • 40.0
  • 30.0
  • 20.0
  • 10.0

0.0 10.0 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information

  • Transp. & Util.

Other Services Financial Construction Federal Govt. Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Total -133.4k

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s) (Ranked by Size in 2019)

slide-45
SLIDE 45

Job Change by Sector Northern Virginia

May 2020 – Jun 2020

0.1

  • 0.9

0.0

  • 1.0

0.2 0.5 1.2

  • 0.2

2.1 4.6

  • 3.8

0.1 0.7

  • 8.0
  • 5.0
  • 2.0

1.0 4.0 7.0 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information

  • Transp. & Util.

Other Services Financial Construction Federal Govt. Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Total +3.8k

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s) (Ranked by Size in 2019)

slide-46
SLIDE 46

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Dec 2016 Dec 2017 Dec 2018 Dec 2019

May 2020 DC 8.5 US 13.3 SMD 8.6 MSA 9.0 NVA 9.7

Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

%

slide-47
SLIDE 47
  • 25.0%
  • 20.0%
  • 15.0%
  • 10.0%
  • 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% Dallas Phoenix Seattle Houston Atlanta SF-Oakland Los Angeles DC New York Miami Boston Philadelphia Detroit Chicago Minneapolis

Washington -9.5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change

May 2019 – May 2020

slide-48
SLIDE 48
  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

%

U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP

Annual % Change 2008 – 2020

Washington MSA U.S.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Chained Dollars

slide-49
SLIDE 49

Long commutes diminish quality of life

Proportion of workers with travel time to work of 60 or more minutes

Source: US Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey (Table S0802) 6.2% 7.6% 8.2% 8.4% 8.4% 9.2% 9.5% 10.0% 11.2% 11.3% 14.2% 14.7% 14.7% 15.5% 19.2% 20.7% 21.1% 21.5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Minneapolis (1,966,186) Phoenix (2,252,077) Denver (1,607,215) Detroit (2,038,659) Pittsburgh (1,130,004) Dallas (3,791,790) United States (154,609,443) Philadelphia (2,709,202) Houston (3,312,236) Miami (2,992,970) Seattle (2,119,472) Atlanta (2,962,938) Chicago (4,741,646) Los Angeles (6,673,806) Washington DC (3,497,447) San Francisco (2,526,639) New York (8,996,152) Boston (1,274,261)

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WMATA Metrorail

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Average Weekday Metrorail Ridership

12-month % change (2006-2018)

  • 16%
  • 12%
  • 8%
  • 4%

0% 4% 8% 12% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Metrorail Alexandria Arlington Fairfax District of Columbia Maryland Virginia Linear (Metrorail) Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA); Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 53

Housing Market Trends

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SLIDE 54

15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Feb 2011 Feb 2012 Feb 2013 Feb 2014 Feb 2015 Feb 2016 Feb 2017 Feb 2018 Feb 2019 Feb 2020

  • 30%
  • 25%
  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

12-Month % Change End of Month Inventory

May 19

  • May 20
  • 23.8%

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data) Note: End of month inventory includes: (1) All Pending Listings and (2) Active Listings.

Inventories of Existing Homes

Washington MSA MOTYC (2011-2020)

EOM inventory May 2019 29,344 units May 2020 22,355 units

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  • 60%
  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2

12-Month Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes

Washington MSA MOTYC (2000 – 2020)

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

Apr – May 2020

  • 6.7%
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2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 12-Month Moving Average

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 3,745

Existing Home Sales

Washington MSA (DC Metro Region) Jan 1999 – May 2020

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  • 1,500
  • 1,000
  • 500

500 1,000 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20

Existing Home Sales

Washington MSA (DC Metro Region) Month-Over-Year Change Feb 2011 – May 2020

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020

  • 1,943
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SLIDE 58

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: U. S. Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Washington MSA Building Permits

2012-2019, Three-Month Moving Average

May 2020 1,500 permits issued 1,839 3-mo avg

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SLIDE 59

15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 permits inventory

Permits and Inventories

Washington MSA (2010-2020)

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data); U. S. Census Bureau

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SLIDE 60

Existing Home Sales and Permits

12-month moving average of MOTYC % change Washington MSA

  • 50%
  • 30%
  • 10%

10% 30% 50% 70% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 12-mo MOTYC avg permits 12-mo MOTYC avg home sales

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data); U. S. Census Bureau

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SLIDE 61

Median Home Sales Price

Washington MSA

150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 $440.0k

12-month moving average (thousands of dollars)

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SLIDE 62

Median Home Sales Price

Arlington, Alexandria City, and Washington MSA

100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Arlington Alexandria City 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City) Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

(thousands of dollars)

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Median Home Sales Price

Arlington & Washington MSA Moving Averages (2000-2020)

150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) (thousands of dollars)

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

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SLIDE 64

350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 625 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Arlington Fairfax Loudoun

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

(thousands of dollars)

Median Home Sales Price

Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties 12-month moving averages | Feb 2011 – May 2020

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200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Arlington Fairfax Loudoun

Closed Home Sales

Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties 12-month moving averages | Jan 2009 – May 2020

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

Closed Home Sales, Actual Values

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Median Sales Price

Washington MSA Month-Over-Year % Change | Jan 2011 – May 2020

  • 5.0%
  • 2.5%

0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 MEDIAN sales price $440,000

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Average Sales Price

Month-Over-Year % Change Washington MSA

  • 7.5%
  • 5.0%
  • 2.5%

0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 AVERAGE sales price $518,350

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SLIDE 68

Average Sales Price

Month-Over-Year % Change District of Columbia

  • 12%
  • 9%
  • 6%
  • 3%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 21% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 AVERAGE sales price $777,664

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SLIDE 69

Average Sales Price

Month-Over-Year % Change Suburban Maryland

  • 15%
  • 12%
  • 9%
  • 6%
  • 3%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 AVERAGE sales price $469,925

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SLIDE 70

Average Sales Price

Month-Over-Year % Change Northern Virginia

  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 AVERAGE sales price $574,102

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Active Listings to Closed Sales Ratio

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Arlington Fairfax Loudoun Prince William DC Montgomery Prince George’s

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

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SLIDE 72

Active Listings to Closed Sales Ratio

Greater Washington DC Area

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 Active Listings 10,183 Closed Sales 6,485 Listings : Sales 1.57

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$500 $550 $600 $650 $700

  • 5.0%
  • 2.5%

0.0% 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

Average Home Sales Price:

Single Family Detached

Northern Virginia (2011-2020)

(000s)

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 $707k avg SP +2.8% MOTYC

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SLIDE 74

$315 $335 $355 $375 $395 $415 $435 $455 $475

  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

Average Home Sales Price:

Single Family Attached: Townhomes

Northern Virginia (2011-2020)

(000s)

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 $477.7k avg SP +1.0% MOTYC

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$255 $265 $275 $285 $295 $305 $315 $325 $335 $345

  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

Average Home Sales Price:

Single Family Attached: Condos

Northern Virginia (2011-2020)

(000s)

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 $359k avg SP +4.7% MOTYC

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SLIDE 76

$700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100

  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

Average Home Sales Price:

Single Family Detached

District of Columbia (2011-2020)

(000s)

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 $1.23M avg SP +21.0% MOTYC

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SLIDE 77

$460 $510 $560 $610 $660 $710 $760 $810

  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

Average Home Sales Price:

Single Family Attached: Townhomes

District of Columbia (2011-2020)

(000s)

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 $829.6k avg SP

  • 3.5% MOTYC
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SLIDE 78

$400 $420 $440 $460 $480 $500 $520 $540 $560 $580

  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

Average Home Sales Price:

Single Family Attached: Condos

District of Columbia (2011-2020)

(000s)

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis (CRA); RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) SmartCharts (using Bright MLS data)

May 2020 $571.5k avg SP +3.4% MOTYC

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SLIDE 79

Thank You cra.gmu.edu

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SLIDE 80

NOTICE

Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, we are suspending our Outlook for the remainder of 2020 at this time. As economic data become available and we understand better when personal and business activities can begin to move towards normal, we will update projections for national and regional economic performance. In the meantime, please visit the CRA website for updated information

  • n local housing market performance and other key economic data at:

https://cra.gmu.edu/covid19/ Be Well! Be Safe! We hope to see you soon.