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Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Center for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 13, 2023 171 likes •1.11k views

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University April 8, 2019 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) 6.0 $20,000 $19,000

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SLIDE 1

April 8, 2019

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University

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SLIDE 2

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 2012 Dollars )

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $10,000 $11,000 $12,000 $13,000 $14,000 $15,000 $16,000 $17,000 $18,000 $19,000 $20,000

  • 2.0
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions)

% 2017 +2.2% 2018 +2.9%

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SLIDE 3
  • 8,000
  • 6,000
  • 4,000
  • 2,000

2,000 4,000

(000s)

Mar = +2.5M

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US

Month-Over-Year

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 4
  • 900
  • 700
  • 500
  • 300
  • 100

100 300 500 700

(000s)

US Payroll Job Change

Month-to-Month

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Mar = +196k

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SLIDE 5

125 130 135 140 145 150 155 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Month-to-Month Change (000s) Total (Millions)

US Payroll Jobs

2018- 2019

2.5M

Mar

+196K Since 2010 +21M

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 6

U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector

Mar 2018 – Mar 2019

  • 3

4 179 92 83 246 101 209 435

  • 36

106 534 545

  • 100

100 200 300 400 500 600

Information Federal Govt.

  • Transp. & Util.

Other Services Wholesale Trade Construction Financial Manufacturing Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

Total = 2,537,000

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Ranked by Size in 2018 (000s)

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SLIDE 7

10

  • 2

7 14

  • 2

16 11

  • 6

33

  • 12

16 37 70

  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Information Federal Govt.

  • Transp. & Util.

Other Services Wholesale Trade Construction Financial Manufacturing Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs (000s) Ranked by Size in 2018

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector

Feb 2019 – Mar 2019

Total = +196k

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SLIDE 8

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

U.S. Unemployment Rate

%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Mar 3.8

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SLIDE 9

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

U.S. Unemployment

Mar 7.3%

U-6 UR LFPR

Mar 3.8% Mar 63%

Mar18 to Mar19

U-6

  • 0.6%

UR

  • 0.2%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

60 62 64

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SLIDE 10

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Mar 30: 202K

(000s)

Initial Claims for Unemployment

4-Week Moving Average

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SLIDE 11

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 (000s)

Initial Claims for Unemployment

4-Week Moving Average

Source: Department of Labor (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Mar 30: 202K

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SLIDE 12

Average Weekly Earnings

U.S., Total Private, Across all Industries

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Mar 18 – Mar 19 Avg Hourly Wages +3.2% Mar 18 – Mar19 Avg Weekly Earnings +3.2% Feb 18 – Feb 19 Real Avg Weekly Earnings +1.6%

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Average Weekly Earnings Real Average Weekly Earnings (1982-1984 dollars)

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Labor Productivity

Nonfarm business, seasonally adjusted

Base year (100) = 2012

20 40 60 80 100 120

  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

QOTYC Index

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 14

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19

Consumer Confidence

Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Expectations Current Situation March 2019

  • Cur. = 160.6
  • Exp. = 99.8

(1985 = 100)

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SLIDE 15
  • 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Annual Consumer Prices 2001 - 2018

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 16

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

30-Yr 10-Yr Treas Fed

Interest Rates

2001 - 2018

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

%

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SLIDE 17

Only false signal

  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 '59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07

Percentage points

Source: FRB Dallas

10-yr./1-yr. yield spread

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SLIDE 18
  • 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Source: U.S. Treasury, Yield Curve for Treasury Nominal Coupon Issues (TNC yield curve), which is derived from Treasury nomin al notes and bonds

10-yr./1-yr. yield spread

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SLIDE 19

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000

Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis)

U.S. New and Existing Home Sales

(000s)

(000s)

Source: U.S. Census (New)(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), National Association of Realtors (Existing)

Feb 18 - Feb 19

  • 1.8%

Feb 18 - Feb 19 0.6% 4k

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Growth in Total Consumption Outlays

3.1 3.8 3.5 3 2.2

  • 0.3
  • 1.6

1.9 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.9 3.2 2.7 2.5

  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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SLIDE 21

1.9

  • 0.1
  • 2.5

2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 2.9

  • 4
  • 2

2 4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. GDP 2007 – 2018

(Annual % Change)

%

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SLIDE 22

The Washington Economy

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SLIDE 23

Elements of Population Change Washington MSA

49,016 49,169 47,790 48,651 47,832 44,882 42,616 37,183 39,715 39,358 41,048 45,410 45,606 44,760 23,864 6,843 3,143

  • 23,209
  • 31,483
  • 31,492
  • 21,543
  • 40,000
  • 20,000

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Population Change

Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase

Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2017

+2.0% +1.7% +1.5% +1.1% +1.0% +1.0% +1.1%

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SLIDE 24
  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (000s)

Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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Annual Job Change - Washington MSA

2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400

  • 30
  • 10

10 30 50 70 90 110 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

000’s 000’s

February-19 Total: 3,290 K

Feb 18- Feb 19

+20.7 K

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SLIDE 26
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (000s)

Annual Job Change – MOTYC District of Columbia

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 27

Annual Job Change – District of Columbia

680 700 720 740 760 780 800 820

  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

February-19 Total: 791 K

000’s 000’s Feb 18- Feb 19

+2.7 K

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SLIDE 28
  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (000s)

Annual Job Change – MOTYC Suburban Maryland

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 29

Annual Job Change – Suburban MD

880 900 920 940 960 980 1,000 1,020 1,040

  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

February-19 Total: 1,000 K

000’s 000’s Feb 18- Feb 19

  • 3,300
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  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(000s)

Annual Job Change – MOTYC Northern Virginia

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 31

Annual Job Change – Northern VA

1,250 1,300 1,350 1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550

  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

000’s 000’s Feb 18- Feb 19

+18.5K February - 19 Total: 1,484 K

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Employment Composition by Sector February 2019 Washington MSA

1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 4.7% 4.7% 6.3% 8.0% 10.1% 10.5% 11.0% 13.5% 23.3%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Transportation & Utilities Information Financial Activites Construction Other Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality State & Local Government Federal Government Education & Health Services Professional & Business Services

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SLIDE 33

Job Change by Sector February 2018 – February 2019 Washington MSA

  • 0.5

0.8 2.4

  • 1.1
  • 4.8
  • 0.2

0.5

  • 9.0

13.9 3.3

  • 0.9

2.8 13.5

  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade

  • Transp. & Util.

Information Financial Construction Other Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = 20,700

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(Ranked by Size in 2018)

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SLIDE 34

Job Change by Sector January 2019 – February 2019 Washington MSA

(000s) Total = 13,700

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

0.1 0.0

  • 1.6
  • 0.3
  • 1.8
  • 0.7

0.5

  • 5.5

4.1 13.1 0.6 2.4 2.8

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15

Manufacturing Wlse Trade

  • Transp. & Util.

Information Financial Construction Other Services Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(Ranked by Size in 2018)

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SLIDE 35
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 640 660 680 700 720 740 760 780 MOTYC Total Jobs

Feb 18- Feb 19

+13.5K

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 36

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25

Prof., Sci. & Tech. Svcs.

  • Admin. & Waste Mgt.

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA

Month Over the Year Change

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SLIDE 37

Federal Government Washington MSA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

February-19 Total: 363K

(000s) (000s)

345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 390

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 MOTYC Total Jobs

Feb 18- Feb 19

  • 900
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Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA 1980-2018 (Fiscal Years)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

75.0

$ Billions

TOTAL = $1,471.1 Billion

79.9 76.3 69.1 71.1

Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov

71.2 82.4 77.6 82.6

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SLIDE 39

Job Change by Sector February 2018 – February 2019 District of Columbia

0.0 0.0 0.1

  • 0.3

1.2

  • 0.9
  • 0.5

0.9

  • 0.4

1.4 0.1 3.0

  • 1.9
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade

  • Transp. & Util.

Construction Information Retail Trade Financial State & Local Govt Other Services Leisure & Hosp. Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Federal Govt.

(000s) Total 2,700

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(Ranked by Size in 2018)

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SLIDE 40

Job Change by Sector January 2019 – February 2019 District of Columbia

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

  • 0.4
  • 0.3

0.0 0.6 1.1 2.3 0.4 0.3

  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Manufacturing Wlse Trade

  • Transp. & Util.

Construction Information Retail Trade Financial State & Local Govt Other Services Leisure & Hosp. Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Federal Govt.

(000s) Total 4,200

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(Ranked by Size in 2018)

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SLIDE 41

Job Change by Sector February 201 – February 2019 Suburban Maryland

  • 0.9

0.1 0.0 0.4

  • 2.0

0.5

  • 1.3
  • 1.0

1.4

  • 2.7
  • 1.1

2.1 1.2

  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3

Information

  • Transp. & Util.

Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Financial Other Services Construction Federal Govt. Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total: -3,300

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(Ranked by Size in 2018)

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SLIDE 42

Job Change by Sector January 2019 – February 2019 Suburban Maryland

0.1

  • 0.3
  • 0.1

0.0 0.0 0.1

  • 0.8
  • 0.1

0.2

  • 2.1

7.5 0.6 2.3

  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Information

  • Transp. & Util.

Wholesale_Trade Manufacturing Financial Other Services Construction Federal Govt. Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total: 7,400

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(Ranked by Size in 2018)

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SLIDE 43

Job Change by Sector February 2018 – February 2019 Northern Virginia

0.7 0.5

  • 1.8

1.1 2.0

  • 0.9

1.2 0.9

  • 4.2

7.1 4.3

  • 0.8

8.4

  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information

  • Transp. & Util.

Construction Financial Other Services Federal Govt. Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 18,500

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(Ranked by Size in 2018)

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SLIDE 44

Job Change by Sector January 2019 – February 2019 Northern Virginia

0.1 0.0

  • 0.6
  • 0.6
  • 0.3
  • 0.7

0.0

  • 0.3
  • 2.6

3.0 2.7 0.0 0.0

  • 4
  • 2

2 4 Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information

  • Transp. & Util.

Construction Financial Other Services Federal Govt. Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs

  • Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total: 700

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(Ranked by Size in 2018)

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SLIDE 45

2 4 6 8 10 12 6.0 – DC 4.0 – U.S. 4.1– SMD

3.7– MSA

2.8 – NVA

Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

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SLIDE 46

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb. 2018 – Feb. 2019

  • 20

20 40 60 80 100 120

(000s)

Washington +20,700

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 47
  • 1.0%
  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Washington +0.6%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Feb. 2018 – Feb. 2019

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SLIDE 48
  • 4.0
  • 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

%

U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 – 2017

(Annual % Change)

Washington U.S.

%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis , GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Chained Dollars

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SLIDE 49
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016

Economic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2020 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas

(Annual % Change) DC SM MSA NV

%

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SLIDE 50

Employment Change in the Washington MSA

(Thousands of Jobs) Annual Totals

Average Annual Change 1990-2016 = 39,800

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 2018)

27.6 17.2 55.7 59.2 50.9 40.6 34.6 31.8

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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SLIDE 51

Employment Change in the Washington MSA

(Thousands of Jobs) Dec-Dec

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 2018)

6.9 32.7 74.1 53.2 37.8 40.6 34.6 31.8

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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SLIDE 52

Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) Annual Totals

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 D.C.

13.4 5.2 15.9 13.7 7.5 10.6 8.9 8.2

  • Sub. MD

7.5 9.7 10.6 13.4 12.8 14.1 12.0 11.0

  • No. VA

9.2 0.8 29.8 28.9 22.6 15.9 13.7 12.6

REGION

27.6 17.2 55.7 59.2 50.9 40.6 34.6 31.8

Average Annual Change 1990-2017 = 38,900

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 2018) NOTE: The sub-state totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

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SLIDE 53

Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) (Dec – Dec)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 D.C.

11.8 7.0 20.5 5.4 7.7 10.6 8.9 8.2

  • Sub. MD

4.1 16.5 11.2 17.2

  • 3.9

14.1 12.0 11.0

  • No. VA
  • 5.7

8.3 44.9 19.8 25.6 15.9 13.7 12.6

REGION

6.9 32.7 74.1 53.2 37.8 40.6 34.6 31.8

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (March 2018) NOTE: The sub-state totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

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SLIDE 54

Long commutes diminish quality of life

Proportion of workers with travel time to work of 60 or more minutes

Source: US Census Bureau, 2017 American Community Survey, Table S0802

5.7% 7.1% 7.3% 9.3% 9.4% 10.6% 11.1% 11.8% 12.3% 13.6% 14.1% 14.2% 14.5% 17.5% 17.9% 22.5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Minneapolis Detroit Phoenix United States Dallas Miami Houston Philadelphia Seattle Los Angeles Chicago Boston Atlanta DC SF-Oakland New York

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SLIDE 55

Metrorail ridership is in decline

  • 15.0%
  • 10.0%
  • 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16* Annual change in Metrorail Average Weekday Passenger Boardings DC Maryland All Metro Alexandria Arlington Fairfax

Source: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA)

slide-56
SLIDE 56

56

slide-57
SLIDE 57
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SLIDE 58
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SLIDE 59

The contributions of foreign-born, non-citizen workers to the Washington region’s workforce

59

slide-60
SLIDE 60

60

Source: 2016 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files

slide-61
SLIDE 61

61

0.7% 1.0% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 23.5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Bangladesh Canada Philippines Bolivia China Ethiopia Honduras Mexico Guatemala India El Salvador

Proportion of Total Foreign-Born, Non-Citizen Workers

Source: US Census Bureau ACS 2016, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Most Foreign Born, Non-Citizens originate from Latin America

slide-62
SLIDE 62

62

Source: 2016 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files

slide-63
SLIDE 63

Majority of foreign-born, non-citizen workers have been here 10 years or more

63

0.2% 0.5% 1.5% 8.4% 22.2% 48.3% 17.2% 1.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

before 1960 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2014 2015 or later

Year of Entry, Non Citizen Foreign Born Workers

MWCOG Region

Source: US Census Bureau ACS 2016, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

slide-64
SLIDE 64

64

Foreign-born, non-citizen workers are about as likely to have a post-secondary degree as all workers nationwide

29.4% 20.9% 16.2% 16.0% 17.5% 8.2% 16.0% 22.7% 27.4% 25.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Less than High School High school diploma/GED Associates degree or Some College Bachelors Degree Graduate or Professional Degree

Percentage of Workers

Non-Citizen, Foreign-Born Workers Greater Washington Region Workforce

Source: US Census Bureau ACS 2016, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

slide-65
SLIDE 65

65

Several occupational groups rely heavily

  • n foreign-born, non-citizen workers

Occupation Group Foreign-Born, Non-Citizen Workers % of Total Occupation Workforce Construction & extraction 65,940 52.4% Cleaning & maintenence 52,750 48.6% Farming, fishing, & forestry 1,150 38.0% Food preparation & serving 43,770 32.6% Production 14,220 28.0% Healthcare support 10,300 21.6% Personal care & service 21,160 21.3% Transportation & material moving 22,870 20.7% Life, physical, & social science 10,890 18.1% Installation, maintenance, & repair 9,190 16.6% Sales 33,990 14.1% Computer & mathematical 21,520 10.1% Healthcare practitioners 11,420 8.7%

Source: 2016 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) files

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SLIDE 66

Housing Market Trends

slide-67
SLIDE 67

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30

% Chg Inv Inventory

Inventories of Existing Homes

Month-Over-Year 2010 – 2019, MSA

Source: Bright MLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.

Feb

  • 4.1%
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SLIDE 68

(60.0) (40.0) (20.0)

  • 20.0

40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0

Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes

Month-Over-Year 2000 – 2019, MSA

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.

Feb

  • 4.1%
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SLIDE 69

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 12-Month Moving Average

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

4,452 Feb 2019

Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through February 2019

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SLIDE 70
  • 2,000
  • 1,500
  • 1,000
  • 500

500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Month-Over-Year Change

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  • 399

Feb 2019

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SLIDE 71

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Feb 2,292

Washington MSA Building Permits 2012-2019, 3-Month Moving Avg.

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SLIDE 72

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Permits Inventory

Inventory and Permits Washington MSA

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s)

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SLIDE 73
  • 40%
  • 20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Permits Existing Home Sales

MOTY Change in Existing Sales and Permits Washington MSA

(12 month Moving Average)

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s)

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SLIDE 74

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Median House Sales Price Washington MSA

$417 K Feb 2019

(000s) (000s)

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 75

Median House Sales Price

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Washington MSA) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Alexandria City) (000s)

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 76

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Washington MSA Arlington

Median House Sales Price

$565K Feb 2019 $416 K Feb 2019

(000s)

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 77

Median House Sales Price

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Fairfax County) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Loudoun County) ($000s)

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 78

Number of Sales

100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100

12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Fairfax County) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Loudoun County) ($000s)

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 79

Median Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA

  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 80

Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA

3 2 6 6 9 3 4 4 7 8 10 14 6 11 9 8 8 9 8 7 8 9 4 5 8 9 3 5 2 2 1 2

  • 1

5 1 4 5 1 2

  • 1

1 3 4

  • 3
  • 2

1

  • 1

2 2 1

  • 1

3 6 7 6 4 5 3 4 2 2 4 6 5 2 3 4 3 3 2 4 4 3 3 3 5 4

  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 %

  • Feb. = $467K

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 81

Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) District of Columbia

10 8 8 14

  • 3-4

4 13 7 13 14 1 8 4 6 2 15 11 5 17 4 5

  • 5

10 11

  • 1

12 11 6 4

  • 1
  • 6

12 10 7 5 5 1 1

  • 2

3 8 9 6 10

  • 1
  • 3
  • 2

5 1 1 4

  • 2

11 2

  • 1
  • 3

4 11 14 9

  • 1

5 6 9

  • 7
  • 5

2 3 11

  • 6-6
  • 2

17

  • 1
  • 4

8 3 7 8

  • 4

10 4

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 %

  • Feb. = $692K

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 82

Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Suburban Maryland

  • 4
  • 2-1

10 11 5 4 9 11 6 14 4 11 11 8 10 11 12 12 6 9 10 5 12 13 5 4 1

  • 2

2 4 4

  • 3

2 1

  • 3

1 1

  • 1-1

3

  • 1

3

  • 4

5

  • 1

5

  • 2

2 4 2

  • 4

7 1 3 6 8 8 6 5 2 1 2 5 2 6 4 3

  • 2

7 1 7 5 4 5 3 2 4

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

%

  • Feb. = $381K
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SLIDE 83

4 2 9 5 7 3 5 5 3 6 10 13 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 8 10 2 6 4 5 1 3 1 2 2 4

  • 1

2 4 5 8 4 4 2 0-1 2 3 2

  • 4
  • 2

0 0 2

  • 1

1 0 0 1

  • 1

4 3 4 3 4 5 2 4 4 4 3 7 2 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 2 4 2 4

  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

%

Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Northern Virginia

  • Feb. = $485K
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SLIDE 84

Total Listings Per Sale Sep Each Year

  • 5

10 15 20 25 LDN PG FFX ARL DC MONT PW

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 85

Total Active Listings Per Sale February Each Year – Metro Area

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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SLIDE 86

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800

  • 5

5 10 15 20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales)

Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Single Family Detached

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

February 2019 = $644,988 , +4.3%

(%) (000s)

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SLIDE 87

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600

  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales)

Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Single Family Attached

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(%) (000s)

February 2019 = $472,560 , +5.1%

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SLIDE 88

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales)

Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Condos

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(%) (000s)

February 2019 = $327,779 , 0.7%

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SLIDE 89

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400

  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales)

Average Home Sales Price DC- Single Family Detached

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(%) (000s)

February 2019 = $956,117 , -19.3%

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SLIDE 90

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000

  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales)

Average Home Sales Price DC- Single Family Attached

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(%) (000s)

February 2019 = $780,811 , +16.2%

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SLIDE 91

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales)

Average Home Sales Price DC- Condos

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(%) (000s)

February 2019 = $512,695 , -2.9%

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SLIDE 92

Where are we?

  • We are growing:
  • Some diversification
  • Some catch-up
  • Recent job growth across all

wage levels

  • Growth will continue in

2017, but at a moderating pace

  • Advantages
  • Government Center
  • International Institutions
  • Connectivity to the World
  • Concentration of Leaders
  • Access to capital
  • High Quality-of-Life
  • Diverse Population
  • Higher Education
  • Educated Work Force
  • Advanced Occupational

Specializations

  • Challenges
  • Drain the swamp/Sequester
  • Further market shifts needed
  • Cost of living/doing business
  • Mobility
  • Access to capital
  • Regional branding /

cooperation

  • Globally competitive?
  • Understanding changing

nature of jobs

  • Productivity
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SLIDE 93

Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu